Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Oct 10, 2023 8:06 pm

Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for former president Donald Trump’s campaign, echoed the condemnation. “Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values,”

Comedy gold.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Oct 10, 2023 9:17 pm

LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 8:06 pm
Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for former president Donald Trump’s campaign, echoed the condemnation. “Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values,”
Comedy gold.

That jumped out at me, too.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 11, 2023 10:49 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 9:17 pm
LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 8:06 pm
Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for former president Donald Trump’s campaign, echoed the condemnation. “Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values,”
Comedy gold.
That jumped out at me, too.

"Conservative values" means whatever Donald Trump is thinking at the present moment.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 8:01 am

2024 National GE:

Biden 44% (+7)
Trump 37%
Kennedy 16%
.
Among Independents:
Trump 34% (+1)
Biden 33%
Kennedy 29%

Marist NPR poll.

Run, Kennedy, run!

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:01 am

I think it makes a lot of sense that Kennedy would actually pull votes away from Trump.

Trump's appeal to a number of people was that he wasn't "one of them". Now he's one of the worst "of them", and there has to be a % of people that are looking for a better "not one of them".

Kennedy is a complete joke, of course, but the people we are talking about are not after substance, just a protest... But I dare say some of them may be growing a little sick of Trump.

I suppose the fear is that there are Biden voters who ONLY voted for Biden because they couldn't vote for Trump, and some of those could go for Kennedy, but I think a lot of those voters are trying to actually keep Trump out of office and they will see they need to rally around someone and just hold their noses again.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:17 am

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:01 am I think it makes a lot of sense that Kennedy would actually pull votes away from Trump.

Trump's appeal to a number of people was that he wasn't "one of them". Now he's one of the worst "of them", and there has to be a % of people that are looking for a better "not one of them".

Kennedy is a complete joke, of course, but the people we are talking about are not after substance, just a protest... But I dare say some of them may be growing a little sick of Trump.

I suppose the fear is that there are Biden voters who ONLY voted for Biden because they couldn't vote for Trump, and some of those could go for Kennedy, but I think a lot of those voters are trying to actually keep Trump out of office and they will see they need to rally around someone and just hold their noses again.

Also - other than his name, the thing that Kennedy is most famous for is being anti-vax. If you're someone who is a passionately anti-vax voter, then at this point you are: (1) disproportionately likely to be on the right wing; and (2) not totally happy with Trump, since his administration oversaw the development and rollout of the COVID vaccine (and Trump will periodically boast about that). Kennedy may appeal to those voters as an anti-vax true believer.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:35 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:17 am If you're someone who is a passionately anti-vax voter, then at this point you are: (1) disproportionately likely to be on the right wing;

I respectfully disagree.

There's been a HUGE anti-vaccination movement from the fringe elements of the far left for almost 2+ decades now. The right-wing voters that are jumping on board because of Covid-19 are notable, but they're largely new to the movement.

That is what makes Kennedy so problematic. As I stated earlier, he's going to draw people from all political stripes (right, left and center) that have strong opinions about vaccination. Prior to 2020, it wasn't a Presidential election topic, but as we continue to barrel backwards into the Dark Ages, it's now such an important topic that spoilers like Kennedy can launch a viable Presidential campaign.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:44 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:35 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:17 am If you're someone who is a passionately anti-vax voter, then at this point you are: (1) disproportionately likely to be on the right wing;
I respectfully disagree.

There's been a HUGE anti-vaccination movement from the fringe elements of the far left for almost 2+ decades now. The right-wing voters that are jumping on board because of Covid-19 are notable, but they're largely new to the movement.

That is what makes Kennedy so problematic. As I stated earlier, he's going to draw people from all political stripes (right, left and center) that have strong opinions about vaccination. Prior to 2020, it wasn't a Presidential election topic, but as we continue to barrel backwards into the Dark Ages, it's now such an important topic that spoilers like Kennedy can launch a viable Presidential campaign.

Oh, I know. And I could be wrong, but my sense is that Covid dramatically changed the political breakdown of the anti-vax movement, in part because it made it a salient issue for everyone, but the only politicians who were responding to anti-vax sentiment were on the right. So my sense is that *now* anti-vax voters going to Kennedy is more likely to hurt Trump than Biden.

But I don't have any data in front of me, so I am curious what that looks like right now.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:51 am

But with Covid kind of in the rear view mirror, certainly considering voters' short-term memories...how big of an impact would this make in 2024?

If the election was 2 years ago, right in the middle of mask mandates, closed businesses, our versions of "lockdown", Fauci's face on the news and radio..."offending" us by trying to help

sure. But next year? I have trouble thinking that enough people are still THAT fired up about what happened years ago, to center their vote around it. I could be very wrong, though. People are f*ing weird when it comes to Covid and its vaccine.

Barely related: the mom of my son's best friend has been a big pharma sales rep for years and is an anti-vaxxer. WTF man. My wife pushes on her all the time about this idiocy but I think it only further entrenches her very strong, and wrong opinion.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:02 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:35 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:17 am If you're someone who is a passionately anti-vax voter, then at this point you are: (1) disproportionately likely to be on the right wing;
I respectfully disagree.

There's been a HUGE anti-vaccination movement from the fringe elements of the far left for almost 2+ decades now. The right-wing voters that are jumping on board because of Covid-19 are notable, but they're largely new to the movement.

That is what makes Kennedy so problematic. As I stated earlier, he's going to draw people from all political stripes (right, left and center) that have strong opinions about vaccination. Prior to 2020, it wasn't a Presidential election topic, but as we continue to barrel backwards into the Dark Ages, it's now such an important topic that spoilers like Kennedy can launch a viable Presidential campaign.

That was then, this is now. While I agree that at one time the anti-vax movement was dominated by the left, I think it’s pretty clear that the majority of anti-vaxxers are on the right and would cost Trump votes.

See here:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-1 ... ratic/amp/

And here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... ement/amp/

And here:

https://time.com/6141699/anti-vaccine-m ... /?amp=true

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 5:43 pm

Yep, it's a front in the culture war now.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 6:01 pm

Grifman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:02 pm
*stuff*

It all supports the reason that part of the Republican base will vote for Kennedy, but all those articles came out (and the data they're quoting) during the height of mandates and vaccination requirements. As all those things are being slowly dismantled across various states, it will be interesting to see how things look in October of 2024 as we get ready for the election.

I'm sharing what I know from being part of the field; the "leftists" that have been against vaccinations have been pushing creative solutions to get around vaccination requirements for the last 15+ years. The people aligned with the right spew resistance and violence - "we will not comply". I don't know that there is as much resistance from the right in 2023 as there was in 2021 and 2022 because no one is mandating anything anymore; no one cares - to a large degree they "won".

Anyway, I'm not even really sure what my own point is here other than I believe Kennedy will be a spoiler for both Biden and the presumptive GOP nominee. I would be amazed if it turns out that he ultimately manages to have a greater impact/influence with GOP voters, but I guess we'll see because that's the current circle of Hell we're all living in.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 7:20 pm

FWIW there is a body of evidence that horseshoe theory is real and antivax fits neatly into it.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:05 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 6:01 pm
Grifman wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 3:02 pm
*stuff*
It all supports the reason that part of the Republican base will vote for Kennedy, but all those articles came out (and the data they're quoting) during the height of mandates and vaccination requirements. As all those things are being slowly dismantled across various states, it will be interesting to see how things look in October of 2024 as we get ready for the election.

I'm sharing what I know from being part of the field; the "leftists" that have been against vaccinations have been pushing creative solutions to get around vaccination requirements for the last 15+ years. The people aligned with the right spew resistance and violence - "we will not comply". I don't know that there is as much resistance from the right in 2023 as there was in 2021 and 2022 because no one is mandating anything anymore; no one cares - to a large degree they "won".

Anyway, I'm not even really sure what my own point is here other than I believe Kennedy will be a spoiler for both Biden and the presumptive GOP nominee. I would be amazed if it turns out that he ultimately manages to have a greater impact/influence with GOP voters, but I guess we'll see because that's the current circle of Hell we're all living in.

Like I assume that the hardcore leftwing anti-vaxxers haven't magically disappeared. But almost by definition the hardcore folks (left and right) are small in number and are unlikely to be consequential in terms of their votes. The bigger issue is the passive, less committed (but more numerous) people who aren't pouring over anti-vax blogs and youtube videos but who have vaccine concerns because of some post they read on Facebook or a friend of a friend who had a baby that was fine before a shot and then became autistic a few months later. Those people on the left have had a few years of being exposed to (generally) responsible Democratic politician messaging on vaccines, by "trust the science" messaging from all over the place, and receiving negative motivation by seeing vaccine attacks from politicians and figures on the right that they are already inclined to dislike and mistrust. While the effect on the right wing has been essentially the reverse.

Yeah, the election's a year from now, but I'm skeptical that the effects of all that are going to be gone by then.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:17 pm

My experience (anecdotal, I know) and gut feeling is that the number of "left leaning" antivax / anti mask folks is a much larger group (proportionately) than the "right leaning" folks that are new to the movement. What I think is going to happen (again, anecdotal/gut feeling) is that the left-leaning group now has a "viable" candidate to vote for in their mind (Kennedy) that will not only support their insane vaccination-woo but also their broad social positions. In other words, they would have voted Biden, but now they have another option that is in better alignment with their beliefs.

Will Kennedy's expansion into censorship and conspiracy theories rope in a larger cohort of Republican voters than just his antivax/anti-mask nonsense? I guess we'll see.

I mean, he's all over the place. Supports more guns, but also universal health care. Supports gay marriage and transgender rights, but is against trans women participating in sports. He wants to reduce military spending but has also made pro-Russia statements.

It's like he's some awful Frankenstein monster that was created to get votes. If he starts saying the wrong things (like going back to his comments on an abortion ban), maybe that will thin out support from the left, but I really don't know anymore.

The horseshoe theory element mentioned upstream might be closer to the truth than anyone wants to admit, yeah.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:00 am

Like I said before, RFK Jr appeals to the lunatic fringe on both sides. Which side has more lunatics?

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:09 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:00 am Like I said before, RFK Jr appeals to the lunatic fringe on both sides. Which side has more lunatics?

The problem for Smoove is that the current polling doesn’t support his gut feeling. When Kennedy is included in presidential polls, he takes more from Trump than he does from Biden. There seem too be more lunatics on the right.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Sat Oct 21, 2023 6:41 pm

African-American support for Biden slipping:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/2 ... 4-00122846

Between this and the Cornel West candidacy, there are reasons to be worried, I think.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Oct 21, 2023 7:50 pm

Sort of interesting data but it may be overselling the impact. GOP gerrymandering has created dense black majority districts. It may come to down losing some votes at the margins but that might not be meaningful. Also, this paragraph below from story? Ideologically homogenous? Uh...wut? I can buy the inflation story hitting hard but the other one doesn't really ring as anything but as active imagination.

There’s no one simple answer for why Democrats are losing Black support at the margins. Some conservative Black voters are aligning with the GOP as the parties become more ideologically homogenous. And inflation and other economic struggles in recent years — which have driven much of the widespread dissatisfaction with Biden — have hit communities of color harder.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Oct 21, 2023 11:41 pm

If you have ability to read the NY Times this panel they did with prospective Trump voters pretty much confirms what you'd expect. It worth it for a calibration to understand that Hillary got it right years ago. You can't win these people over. They are idiots. You can actually see them pretty directly contradicting themselves between answers. Their comments about Trump, especially ascribing transparency and strength to him are about what you expect. The smoothest of brains.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 9:59 am

So I have Fox on before the game today and what I guess is Karl Rove is on there repeating over and over Biden is too old and the points to polls of democratic voters who in large part say Biden is too old. I mean, seriously, who doesn't think Biden is too old? Do these polls not ask, will you vote for him anyway?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 10:15 am

The NY Times panel I referenced above DID EXACTLY THAT. They all said Trump was too old and then only the 2 youngest (mid-20s) raised their hand when they were asked if he was too old to run. In any case, I think it'll be a flat attack because both of them are in the same relative range.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 11:21 am

Trump and Biden are what, two years apart? The difference is that trump is always full of piss and vinegar whereas Biden often comes across as needing a nap. Never mind the amount of work and travel that he actually gets done -- perception matters, and "Sleepy Joe" has stuck.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 3:45 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Sun Oct 22, 2023 11:21 am Trump and Biden are what, two years apart? The difference is that trump is always full of piss and vinegar whereas Biden often comes across as needing a nap. Never mind the amount of work and travel that he actually gets done -- perception matters, and "Sleepy Joe" has stuck.

I think next year and then the debates might tell a different story. In footage of recent rallies, Trump has exhibited not only a weird new tendency to slur his words but also to double down on absurd unrealities--not just his usual lies, but repeated assertions that (e.g.) he literally ran against and beat Obama in 2016 and 2020. I imagine we're only going to see more of that.

Biden's age is already baked in to his approvals. If Trump suddenly looks older and more feeble than anyone expected, that will be a game-changer. (And only moreso if he's wearing an orange jumpsuit.)

Freyland · Post by **Freyland** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 3:58 pm

Do you have any sources or clips about the "running against Obama" business? That seems like it would have been big news.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 5:01 pm

Freyland wrote: ↑Sun Oct 22, 2023 3:58 pm Do you have any sources or clips about the "running against Obama" business? That seems like it would have been big news.

Here ya go.
He also warns of the possibility of World War Two

another source:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-m ... ion-2023-9

Freyland · Post by **Freyland** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 9:46 pm

Amazed that wasn't a big deal when it happened. Thanks.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Sun Oct 22, 2023 10:38 pm

It got a good amount of attention.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:34 am

Cornel West could cost Biden the election:

“Both Biden and Trump received 37% of the vote in the poll that also featured independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, who in this scenario got 13% support.

The survey also shows Cornel West, also running an independent, with 4% of support. Most of his supporters said they would vote for Biden if West is not on the ballot.”

https://themessenger.com/politics/biden ... allot-poll

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:42 am

Grifman wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:34 am Cornel West could cost Biden the election:

“Both Biden and Trump received 37% of the vote in the poll that also featured independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, who in this scenario got 13% support.

The survey also shows Cornel West, also running an independent, with 4% of support. Most of his supporters said they would vote for Biden if West is not on the ballot.”

https://themessenger.com/politics/biden ... allot-poll

Wow. I don't see a scenario where Kennedy gets 13% and of that 13% he doesn't get most of those votes go to TFG, so that's not a great sign.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:43 am

The survey also shows Cornel West, also running an independent, with 4% of support. Most of his supporters said they would vote for Biden if West is not on the ballot.”

He's 70 so he definitely fits!

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:49 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 11:43 am
The survey also shows Cornel West, also running an independent, with 4% of support. Most of his supporters said they would vote for Biden if West is not on the ballot.”
He's 70 so he definitely fits!

bit on the young side if you ask me

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Mon Oct 23, 2023 6:26 pm

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Oct 23, 2023 6:49 pm

West posing a danger to Biden will depend on his getting on the ballot in swing states. States have different rules, so I'll leave it to others to explain where this matters most.

West will very likely get ballot placement in hard-Blue states, but those are also the places where he won't matter at all. (Knock yourselves out, California Westies.) The risk is in swing states where Democratic margins can easily depend on urban minority voters, especially where those voters are young and mostly unengaged with politics until late in an election year. In those places (e.g. Pennsylvania and Georgia), it will be important to raise awareness of the maths at stake.

West is not an idiot, and I don't believe he aims to hasten The Revolution by crippling the complacent center-left (which was probably dingbat Jill Stein's thing). He's running a "message campaign," and I hold out optimism that he'll finally step aside if he realizes that he seriously risks enabling fascism.

But who knows? Ego and attention are a helluva drug.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:36 pm

Pence drops out.

Brian · Post by **Brian** » Sat Oct 28, 2023 3:46 pm

Like he ever had a chance. Dude's got all the personality of cold hot dog water.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:19 pm

I imagine it was mostly about $truggling to rai$e money, as they never had any chance of gaining any traction in the polls.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:19 pm

The real news will be the candidate he endorses.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:21 pm

Once upon a time, he was the darling of the evangelicals. That's why trump tapped him for VP. Now the evangelicals have left Pence behind for bigger and badder christo-fascists, and he's got nuthin.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:25 pm

Now that Mike Johnson is Speaker, I have to wonder if Pence regrets doing the right thing on January 6.

In retrospect, it would have been so easy to give away the Republic and give Christian Nationalists a secure seat at the new table in Trumplandia. There must be some part of him that thinks he wasn't bold enough.