Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[Isgrimnur]

The Stafford dollar amounts need to be dramatically increased. Average public school is $10k/year. Max first-year dependent student Stafford award is $5.5k, upper class students is $7.5k.

[coopasonic]

The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips and Science act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and more are major Biden achievements that explain why the Fed isn't tanking the economy. Most of those $trillions are being invested in red states. Bidenomics is working. Why does the vast majority believe otherwise? Am I just deluded, or do you have to be a political nerd to understand it?

I hypothesize that gas prices are a big factor. People remember $2 gas under trump and forget why it got so cheap.

Have you looked at mortgage and auto loan rates? Good luck buying a house or affording a new car right now. I work for one of the top auto lenders in the US and the market is pretty much hell. Super high risk, very little reward.

Piling onto that:
Try to afford college.
Try to buy a house
Try to buy a car

Those shouldn't be lumped together, but for young people, even youngish people, it's a pretty nasty trifecta right now. Tuition was already out of control, and the housing and auto markets are trouble for different reasons.

The trying to afford college thing is a real PITA. I knew it was bad, but when my daughter started applying this year I wanted to just stab myself. We're busy applying for any scholarship that exists and applying to some schools that offer crazy funding. Princeton is crazy cheap, but getting in is pretty much impossible, but we're trying anyway. That would be 12,500 a year for everything, but it's like 4 percent acceptance rate. And she hasn't saved any whales or won the national fencing championships.

My kid is looking at UT Dallas and it seems downright affordable for a solid Comp Sci school. Not really much more than I paid 30+ years ago WITHOUT adjusting for inflation. Hooray for good state schools?

[disarm]

I think you can still find ok rates on new cars if you have good credit. The rates aren't as high as the mortgages. I still see things like 3.9, but it's a lot more rare. The biggest issue is that you are paying sticker price or more. I've never even come close to paying sticker price my entire life. And paying more than sticker? Kill me.

Is that still happening? We bought our electric Hyundai Kona during the period when you couldn't find new car inventories to save your life and the price of used cars was prohibitive. We paid a "$5K" dealer "fee" on top of the sticker price, and I thought that was insane. Can't believe that's still going on.

I bought a new Ram 1500 a few weeks ago and got it for 16% below sticker (saving $12k) by factory ordering from a high-volume dealer in VA instead of the price-gouging dealers in CT. My local dealers wouldn't go more than $1k off sticker, claiming that they would "lose thousands" if they came anywhere close to the deal I received. The only catch was bringing the truck home...flew to VA early on a Saturday morning and spent the afternoon making the 6.5-hour drive home. Small price to pay for that kind of savings though. Moral of the story? Don't be afraid to walk away from ridiculous "dealer fees" and consider looking out of state if you're in New England or the west coast.

As for financing, my credit score of 840 couldn't get me a rate better than 8.5% for 72 months. That's by far the highest interest I've ever paid for an auto loan, but I'll be paying it off very early so it doesn't matter that much. I pretty much only financed so I didn't have to hand over the full cost up front.

[Kraken]

We lucked into some great timing and moved in January 2022, right before rates started to rise. I think about it every time I see a new house listed in our area and think, “We could never afford that with current interest rates.”

Same, I give my wife all the credit (she's the one with the accounting and finance degrees). She was watching things like a hawk and she knew when to pounce. We wound up locking in when interest rates were at about their lowest point, and right before housing costs skyrocketed. There's no way in hell I could afford my house if I was buying from scratch right now.

Our timing couldn't be worse; it's the worst housing market in a generation and we're getting too old too fast to have the luxury of waiting it out. Fortunately, we already own a house free and clear so we'll be able to retire our horrible new mortgage or refinance it into insignificance as soon as we sell this house, unless things so get much worse that we can't sell the old house. We absolutely have to make sure that happens before the election, which is the one thing on the horizon that could make things get so much worse.

[LordMortis]

I bought a new Ram 1500 a few weeks ago and got it for 16% below sticker (saving $12k) by factory ordering from a high-volume dealer in VA instead of the price-gouging dealers in CT. My local dealers wouldn't go more than $1k off sticker, claiming that they would "lose thousands" if they came anywhere close to the deal I received.

It's going to be time to buy soon. It's nice to have the luxury of not working and having a functional enough car that I can take my time. It's not so nice that budget cars could still be had for under $13,000 in 2008. Because budget cars are so expensive, I'm likely to upgrade the cost to a PHEV, which then takes the price tag up even higher. Knowing that inflation and labor inflation are going to drive prices up even further, I should bit now, but it's nigh impossible when I think that cheap PHEV is still likely two full years of my typical living expense. It makes me think about used, but then I see used car prices, and shrug, seeing little discount, little warranty, and buying into someone else's idea of care in this weather on these roads.

The time is coming, though. When every repair hits four figures and maintenance costs are coming soon and I have no AC... Still, right now, I'm putting less than 5000 miles on my car a year at the moment (that would go up with a new car with new car reliability and comfort, though)

[El Guapo]

We live in a condo, and my wife has been talking about buying a single family house. While we were talking yesterday I was like "well, maybe we should wait and see what happens next year politically before making a large financial commitment to living in this country." I think that alarmed her a bit.

[Exodor]

Our timing couldn't be worse; it's the worst housing market in a generation and we're getting too old too fast to have the luxury of waiting it out. Fortunately, we already own a house free and clear so we'll be able to retire our horrible new mortgage or refinance it into insignificance as soon as we sell this house, unless things so get much worse that we can't sell the old house. We absolutely have to make sure that happens before the election, which is the one thing on the horizon that could make things get so much worse.

We listed our previous house in September. We've already had to lower the price twice because we're just not getting offers with rates they way they are. We bought in July and the rate on our new loan is >7%. I miss the $1200 mortgage at 3.85% on the old house (but the new house is way nicer and we're mostly happy with our move).

Today we got three offers from showings over the weekend. I have no idea what changed but I'm not complaining.

[Octavious]

Houses in my neck of the woods are still selling quickly for crazy prices. There just isn't much in the way of options as finding a rental is nearly impossible. The garbage pile across the street sold in under a month for way more than it should have. We're holding tight until my daughter figures out what college she's going to, but I would have loved to get out while the rates were still low.

[YellowKing]

My neighbor 3 houses down took down the Trump banner he's had flying in his garage ever since I moved in. Progress? Or maybe he just took it down to get drycleaned.

I like to think even he was embarrassed by Trump's testimony, but that's probably wishful thinking.

[Carpet_pissr]

Or he’s switching it out for a Q-Anon flag.

Or trying to sell.

[Smoove_B]

Look's like Coalfinger is finally cashing out too:

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced Thursday that he won’t seek reelection in 2024, giving Republicans a prime opportunity to pick up a seat in the heavily GOP state.

Manchin, 76, said in a statement that he had made the decision “after months of deliberation and long conversations” with his family.

“I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia,” he said. “I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”

His decision to retire severely hampers Democratic hopes of holding on to the coal country seat. For the last few years, Manchin has been the only Democrat elected to statewide office in West Virginia, a longtime politician who has served as governor, secretary of state and state legislator.

[El Guapo]

The sad thing is that despite how infuriating Manchin was, we're definitely going to miss him when he's gone. I am curious when West Virginia will next elect a Democrat.

[LordMortis]

The sad thing is that despite how infuriating Manchin was, we're definitely going to miss him when he's gone. I am curious when West Virginia will next elect a Democrat.

Yep. Once it was pointed out to me he voted democrat like 95+% of the time, I was thankful for him, even as I did not appreciate his outsized power. Still. 76 and serving six year terms. Makes him part of the demographic power we keep questioning. CNBC has floating his potential for presidency all day, again making him part of the demographic we keep questioning.

[Holman]

Wasn't he very likely to lose in 2024 anyway? I thought I'd read that this time his GOP challenger (Jim Justice, a former Democrat and current GOP governor term-limited from running again) was leading.

[YellowKing]

I fully expect him to run third-party and fuck Biden (and the country) over in his unending greed for the spotlight.

[Carpet_pissr]

I fully expect him to run third-party and fuck Biden (and the country) over in his unending greed for the spotlight.

Nah, he's not old enough. He really needs to get in those mid 80's salad days before he has a shot.

[Kraken]

I fully expect him to run third-party and fuck Biden (and the country) over in his unending greed for the spotlight.

His name has been connected to the No Labels party. Dunno if there's anything to that.

[El Guapo]

Wasn't he very likely to lose in 2024 anyway? I thought I'd read that this time his GOP challenger (Jim Justice, a former Democrat and current GOP governor turn-limited from running again) was leading.

It was a real possibility, although I wouldn't say that it's "very likely" he would lose. There was always the question of how long Manchin could defy political gravity in a state like West Virginia. His 2018 victory was fairly narrow (by 2 - 3 points IIRC) and Justice is a credible challenger. But Manchin certainly knows the state and has done it before, so he'd have a decent shot at winning. And I think he's the only Democrat who would have any kind of chance at all.

[malchior]

In the big picture it doesn't mean much. He is 76 and wasn't going to live forever so eventually this bill was going to come due. If it was in a year where there was a hare's chance of keeping the Senate it might be notable but it seems likely it'll shift by 4 or 5 seats towards the revolutionaries anyway.

[Smoove_B]

The news about Manchin perhaps stole the thunder from Jill Stein?

Jill Stein announced Thursday that she is running for president in 2024 as a Green Party candidate.

...

Driving the news: "The political system is broken," Stein said in a video on X announcing her bid.

"The bipartisan establishment has failed us, and we need a party that serves the people," she said.

I'm surprised she didn't also say it in Russian.

[LordMortis]

Can she run as an anti vaxxer this time? Can she run as an anti vaxxer this time? Can she run as an anti vaxxer this time?

[Blackhawk]

There's a bipartisan establishment?

[Carpet_pissr]

There's a bipartisan establishment?

That's a really weird way for her to say it. Obviously she means "two-party" establishment, right? Bc as you mention, what she said makes no sense.

[Smoove_B]

There's a bipartisan establishment?

That's a really weird way for her to say it. Obviously she means "two-party" establishment, right? Bc as you mention, what she said makes no sense.

To repeat myself:

I'm surprised she didn't also say it in Russian.

[Smoove_B]

I know that no one cares, but it's for the record:

Sen. Tim Scott announced on Sunday that he is suspending his presidential campaign.

The South Carolina Republican senator made the announcement in a televised interview on Fox News with his longtime friend Trey Gowdy. The news came as a shock to his own staff. Multiple campaign staff members confirmed to POLITICO that they had no prior knowledge of Scott’s decision before he did so on live television.

[malchior]

A pragmatic decision considering he was definitely getting cut out of the next debate.

[hepcat]

Also, hiring someone to pretend she was his girlfriend did not result in higher polling numbers. Poor guy just can't win.

[El Guapo]

Kind of douchey to not tell your staff before the announcement.

[Holman]

Kind of douchey to not tell your staff before the announcement.

Or to announce just a few hours after you sent out a fundraising email.

[malchior]

Kind of douchey to not tell your staff before the announcement.

Or to announce just a few hours after you sent out a fundraising email.

Maybe they raised zero dollars after the email and reality set in.

[malchior]

I sort of lost it in the shuffle but Manchin is saying he is absolutely considering running as President.

NBC News

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., inched closer Wednesday to confirming that he could run for president.

"I will do anything I can to help my country, and you're saying, 'Does that mean you would consider it?' Absolutely," Manchin said in an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker.

"Every American should consider it if they're in a position to help save the country," he added.

Manchin said he first has to explore whether there's an appetite among voters for a moderate candidate like him.

"Moderate". He means can he look moderate enough to cover up the stink of oligarchy all over his person. I don't know how to analyze it because there is significant dissonance to say he is terrified of Trump and then contemplate this action which would...almost certainly elect him.

[Carpet_pissr]

Nikki Haley was a relatively popular Governor here, and new polls of South Carolina Republicans show she is barely even registering, relatively, in new polling compared to Trump.

NO ONE can touch this guy. Same for DeSantis...anecdotally heard from Florida GOP'ers interviewed on NPR this morning (several), and they were all saying the same thing - DeSantis was a great governor, but THEN HE DECIDED TO GO AGAINST TRUMP, AND NOW WE HATESS HIM SOLELY BECAUSE OF THAT. That was the message from several interviewees. He was a great governor until he dared to look upon the countenance of Our Guy (that's what one said) and so now he is dead to them.

Trump's power over these people is soooo disturbing, on so many levels. And dangerous.

If he should be convicted of anything, they are going to tear shit up like we've never seen in our lifetimes, I'm afraid.

[YellowKing]

Trump's power over these people is soooo disturbing, on so many levels. And dangerous.

He's like evil Taylor Swift.

[LordMortis]

If he should be convicted of anything, they are going to tear shit up like we've never seen in our lifetimes, I'm afraid.

Me too, and I'm a coward. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't proceed according to the rule of law.

[Unagi]

If he should be convicted of anything, they are going to tear shit up like we've never seen in our lifetimes, I'm afraid.

It's a boil that needs to be lanced, as ugly as it may be.

[UsulofDoom]

Trump's power over these people is soooo disturbing, on so many levels. And dangerous.

He's like evil Taylor Swift.

Taylor Swift for Bidons VP

[Carpet_pissr]

If he should be convicted of anything, they are going to tear shit up like we've never seen in our lifetimes, I'm afraid.

Me too, and I'm a coward. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't proceed according to the rule of law.

Agree completely and didn’t mean to suggest otherwise.

Just listening to otherwise mild-mannered folk talking about him like he’s Jesus, sounding like they would totally take a bullet for him, was an unnerving experience.

[LawBeefaroni]

I sort of lost it in the shuffle but Manchin is saying he is absolutely considering running as President.

NBC News

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., inched closer Wednesday to confirming that he could run for president.

"I will do anything I can to help my country, and you're saying, 'Does that mean you would consider it?' Absolutely," Manchin said in an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker.

"Every American should consider it if they're in a position to help save the country," he added.

Manchin said he first has to explore whether there's an appetite among voters for a moderate candidate like him.

"Moderate". He means can he look moderate enough to cover up the stink of oligarchy all over his person. I don't know how to analyze it because there is significant dissonance to say he is terrified of Trump and then contemplate this action which would...almost certainly elect him.

"Reminder that I am still taking bids to end my candidacy."

[LordMortis]

If he should be convicted of anything, they are going to tear shit up like we've never seen in our lifetimes, I'm afraid.

Me too, and I'm a coward. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't proceed according to the rule of law.

Agree completely and didn’t mean to suggest otherwise.

Just listening to otherwise mild-mannered folk talking about him like he’s Jesus, sounding like they would totally take a bullet for him, was an unnerving experience.

Fortunately, I'm not directly exposed to that. Mostly I'm exposed to people "who don't want to support TFG, but...." as they look the other way on January 6th. I don't tend to associate those that would hang "Fuck Joe Biden" flags, even as they were all too present until 2022.

[Carpet_pissr]

This was on NPR.