Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[Carpet_pissr]

DeSantis finally saying (out loud) that the Dems want Trump as the nominee.

He’s being forced to take a more anti-Trump position as his run is in jeopardy, although that is still pretty indirect, arm’s length criticism.

I think he’s probably already toast at this point.

[Smoove_B]

Haven't heard Mitt Romney's thoughts in a while, so let's check in:

Romney to NYT: “As a Biden campaign theme, I think the threat to democracy pitch is a bust. Jan. 6 will be 4 years old by the election. Ppl have processed it, one way or another. Biden needs fresh material, a new attack, rather than kicking a dead political horse.”

Well, that's certainly a position.

[hepcat]

He’s not wrong…unfortunately.

[Kraken]

The Boston Globe polled 1,000 NH voters and the headline results are modestly encouraging: trump enjoys a 20-point advantage over Haley. But if all of the also-rans were to drop out, she'd be within striking distance. Trump has a plurality, not a majority (which is the story of his career, right? Divide and conquer). And in a trump/Biden rematch, Biden would take the state by 7 points (same as in the last election).

Two weeks before the New Hampshire presidential primary, Donald Trump holds a nearly 20 percentage point lead over Nikki Haley, but would lose a general election rematch with President Biden by roughly 7 points, a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA Today poll found.

Voters in the swing state said they were worried about immigration and the economy, but their biggest concern was one Biden has made a centerpiece of his campaign — the future of American democracy.

In the Republican race, 46 percent of likely voters said they intend to vote for the former president, compared to 27 percent who support Haley, the former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor whose support has surged in recent weeks and who now has the backing of popular New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie is in third with 12 percent, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 8 percent.

But Haley might have trouble making up any more ground: About 8 out of 10 GOP primary voters said they’re unlikely to change their minds before the Jan. 23 primary, according to the survey. To close the gap, Haley would probably need several things to break her way, including Christie deciding to drop out, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. He noted that the poll showed Christie’s supporters would break by a 7-to-1 margin to her over Trump.

I'm glad the threat to our democracy has traction. Sometimes it feels like voters are "democracy? eh, whatever."

[Carpet_pissr]

Anybody that leaned GOP in the past or wishes that we had a sane GOP now owes this guy, if only for continually beating this drum publicly:

“Anyone who is unwilling to say (Trump) is unfit to be president of the United States,” Christie said, “is unfit themselves to be president of the United States.”

[YellowKing]

I'm glad the threat to our democracy has traction. Sometimes it feels like voters are "democracy? eh, whatever."

These articles often serve to remind me that A) Americans have been conditioned to fix their grievances at the ballot box and B) most do it in private. When you're involved in political discussion every day, it's maddening the seeming indifference among fellow Americans. But I think on the whole, the people who do vote are paying attention at some level.

[malchior]

I'm glad the threat to our democracy has traction. Sometimes it feels like voters are "democracy? eh, whatever."

These articles often serve to remind me that A) Americans have been conditioned to fix their grievances at the ballot box and B) most do it in private. When you're involved in political discussion every day, it's maddening the seeming indifference among fellow Americans. But I think on the whole, the people who do vote are paying attention at some level.

True. The reality though is that it's often a brief snapshot of an opinion formed partly based on a mix of horse-race type coverage/tv news and campaigning efforts. It makes the force, sharpness, and relatability of messaging in those short spans of attention especially important. And also that this also necessitates access to the ballot box which unfortunately isn't a given.

[El Guapo]

Is it weird that I'm sad that Christie dropped out of the race? I mean, it's probably ultimately for the best that he did, since it gives Haley maybe a 1% chance of beating Trump instead of a 0.5% chance. But Christie was the only one in the race really speaking truth about Trump. Christie was never really going to go anywhere at the end of the day, but still feels like this closes a chapter in terms of Republican voters' ability / willingness to hear facts.

[Octavious]

He can still jump on the news and say whatever he wants. Don't think it really matters if he's running. None of them will listen anyways. If you have gone this far and are like he's my man! Nothing is going to change your mind.

[Holman]

Is it weird that I'm sad that Christie dropped out of the race? I mean, it's probably ultimately for the best that he did, since it gives Haley maybe a 1% chance of beating Trump instead of a 0.5% chance. But Christie was the only one in the race really speaking truth about Trump. Christie was never really going to go anywhere at the end of the day, but still feels like this closes a chapter in terms of Republican voters' ability / willingness to hear facts.

Christie's campaign was a test of whether significant numbers of Republicans were willing to entirely reject Trump and what he stands for. Now we know the answer.

Haley and DeSantis are testing whether significant numbers of Republicans are willing to chose Trump policies while refusing Trump's excesses. We're learning that answer too.

Ramaswamy's campaign is testing whether a primary "challenge" somehow paradoxically supportive of Trump is a route into Trump's good graces and his administration. We'll learn that eventually.

[El Guapo]

Is it weird that I'm sad that Christie dropped out of the race? I mean, it's probably ultimately for the best that he did, since it gives Haley maybe a 1% chance of beating Trump instead of a 0.5% chance. But Christie was the only one in the race really speaking truth about Trump. Christie was never really going to go anywhere at the end of the day, but still feels like this closes a chapter in terms of Republican voters' ability / willingness to hear facts.

Christie's campaign was a test of whether significant numbers of Republicans were willing to entirely reject Trump and what he stands for. Now we know the answer.

Yeah, that's the part that's depressing, I suppose. Albeit unsurprising.

[Kraken]

I can't root for Nikki Haley. I just can't.

[Smoove_B]

I can't root for Nikki Haley. I just can't.

She did just say people should be working until they're 70, so that will definitely win her points with a certain crowd...

[Kraken]

The most positive thing one can say about her is that she probably isn't a threat to democracy. The most concerning is that she would probably beat Joe Biden.

[Smoove_B]

The most positive thing one can say about her is that she probably isn't a threat to democracy.

She has an (R) after her name on the ballot; she's a threat to democracy.

[Scraper]

The most positive thing one can say about her is that she probably isn't a threat to democracy. The most concerning is that she would probably beat Joe Biden.

I don't think she would beat Biden. If she somehow wins the primary I think most of the Magats would stay home for the general and Biden would have an advantage. I have a hard time seeing the hardcore racist maggots voting for an Indian woman.

[LordMortis]

Not sure. MAGAts might vote revolt. Then the bigots might not vote for a woman, much less a woman of questionable WASP heritage. Still the Biden hate and belief the economy is doomed is strong. And of course the economy state in November is a long way away. And getting us directly involved in the Red Sea conflagration will change the balance of voters one way or another as time goes on. And then there's Congress...

[ImLawBoy]

They'd be happy to vote for her because they would use it as cover to claim to they're not really racist. "Some of my best candidates are minorities!"

[Carpet_pissr]

Not sure. MAGAts might vote revolt. Then the bigots might not vote for a woman, much less a woman of questionable WASP heritage. Still the Biden hate and belief the economy is doomed is strong. And of course the economy state in November is a long way away. And getting us directly involved in the Red Sea conflagration will change the balance of voters one way or another as time goes on. And then there's Congress...

I wonder if we've reached a point where the "economy state" doesn't matter, but what people THINK (or more accurately maybe, WANT to think) the state of the economy is.

[malchior]

Not sure. MAGAts might vote revolt. Then the bigots might not vote for a woman, much less a woman of questionable WASP heritage. Still the Biden hate and belief the economy is doomed is strong. And of course the economy state in November is a long way away. And getting us directly involved in the Red Sea conflagration will change the balance of voters one way or another as time goes on. And then there's Congress...

I wonder if we've reached a point where the "economy state" doesn't matter, but what people THINK (or more accurately maybe, WANT to think) the state of the economy is.

Yes - there is even now a term for it - vibecession

A vibecession is a period of widespread pessimism about the economy regardless of the actual economic situation.

The term vibecession references the word vibes, in the sense of “a general feeling or attitude.” During an alleged vibecession, the vibes are bad (in a “recession”) due to people feeling pessimistic about the economy.

Vibecession is a non-technical term that refers to low consumer sentiment, a measurement of the public’s opinion on the economy. The term vibecession is used to refer to a time when the economy is relatively good according to financial data and statistics, but the public is pessimistic about the current or future economic situation. This pessimism could be due to a wide variety of reasons, such as a period of inflation being good for borrowers but bad for the average person. Another common theory states that millennials and younger generations contribute to a vibecession because they frequently learn about the economy through social media, which tends to emphasize negativity and pessimism.

[pr0ner]

The most positive thing one can say about her is that she probably isn't a threat to democracy. The most concerning is that she would probably beat Joe Biden.

I don't think she would beat Biden. If she somehow wins the primary I think most of the Magats would stay home for the general and Biden would have an advantage. I have a hard time seeing the hardcore racist maggots voting for an Indian woman.

I dunno, there are plenty of never Trumpers who would vote for Biden over Trump but vote for Haley over Biden.

[The Meal]

Yes - there is even now a term for it - vibecession

Thanks. I hate it.

[Victoria Raverna]

The most positive thing one can say about her is that she probably isn't a threat to democracy. The most concerning is that she would probably beat Joe Biden.

I don't think she would beat Biden. If she somehow wins the primary I think most of the Magats would stay home for the general and Biden would have an advantage. I have a hard time seeing the hardcore racist maggots voting for an Indian woman.

She looks white enough and her current name is white enough. I don't think stupid racist MAGA are going to realize she is an Indian woman.

[El Guapo]

The most positive thing one can say about her is that she probably isn't a threat to democracy. The most concerning is that she would probably beat Joe Biden.

I don't think she would beat Biden. If she somehow wins the primary I think most of the Magats would stay home for the general and Biden would have an advantage. I have a hard time seeing the hardcore racist maggots voting for an Indian woman.

She looks white enough and her current name is white enough. I don't think stupid racist MAGA are going to realize she is an Indian woman.

Her skin tone is dark enough to trigger MAGA types, believe me.

[ImLawBoy]

She doesn't hide that she's of Indian heritage. She still managed to get elected governor of a Southern red state.

[Scraper]

The most positive thing one can say about her is that she probably isn't a threat to democracy. The most concerning is that she would probably beat Joe Biden.

I don't think she would beat Biden. If she somehow wins the primary I think most of the Magats would stay home for the general and Biden would have an advantage. I have a hard time seeing the hardcore racist maggots voting for an Indian woman.

She looks white enough and her current name is white enough. I don't think stupid racist MAGA are going to realize she is an Indian woman.

Her skin tone is dark enough to trigger MAGA types, believe me.

Yep and Drmpf even started a birther conspiracy for her this week.

[Blackhawk]

Putting aside the visibility of the loudest minority, how many R voters are actually MAGA vs only voting for R or never voting for D?

[GreenGoo]

Putting aside the visibility of the loudest minority, how many R voters are actually MAGA vs only voting for R or never voting for D?

Given the lack of traction anyone but Drumpf has, I'd say a lot of them.

[Scraper]

Putting aside the visibility of the loudest minority, how many R voters are actually MAGA vs only voting for R or never voting for D?

Given the lack of traction anyone but Drumpf has, I'd say a lot of them.

I'd say about 50% of them

[Blackhawk]

Putting aside the visibility of the loudest minority, how many R voters are actually MAGA vs only voting for R or never voting for D?

Given the lack of traction anyone but Drumpf has, I'd say a lot of them.

I'd say about 50% of them

I wouldn't even go that high. Echo chambers (made possible by the internet) mean that a lot of people don't actually see the other side of the story at all, or if they see bits and pieces, they've been primed to disregard it.

True MAGAs, who, if they were given a full list of everything Trump has actually done, threatened, and implied without the Fox spin, would still say "I support that." The kind who would, with intent, refuse to vote for a non-white, non-male because they were a non-white, non-male. I'd guess well under 50%. 20% I could get behind. Maybe 25%.

The rest are likely conservatives of the type that, while I might have issues with some of their political goals, I wouldn't consider bad people. They've just got some combination of echo chambers, cognitive dissonance, complete lack of knowledge of current events*, or have the wool pulled so far over their eyes that they think that he's something other than he is.

*Don't discount how many people have no clue what's happening or what their candidate actually does. If only one in three conservative voters actually follow the news, and what the others see is limited to propaganda, then the failing is ignorance, not malevolence.

[gbasden]

After 8 years of Trump being in the spotlight, how do you think that half of the people pulling for him in the primary don't really know what he's about? How hard would you willfully have to try not to have any idea what kind of person he is? In 2016, maybe, but I think a lot more people than you think are fine with his positions.

[Smoove_B]

Speaking of which...

A majority of Republican primary voters in CBS News polling — 81% — said that they agreed with President Trump's statement that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," and 47% of voters overall said they agreed with it.

News story.

Our country is sick. Lord help us if TFG is re-elected. But even if he isn't? This sentiment isn't going to just vaporize.

[Victoria Raverna]

US is pre-WW2 German?

[Octavious]

That's pretty much where we are at with those people knowing what happened in WW2. There's no playing dumb. These people are perfectly fine with people get thrown in camps. Hell they will cheer it on.

[LordMortis]

But even if he isn't? This sentiment isn't going to just vaporize.

So much this. How do we get better? We need to get better. And it's not just going to be generation landslide as I have hoped and monitored. There needs to be more and them see how generation landslide is working. They are waging stronger and stronger wars on education that they may indoctrinate with ignorance and weaponized bigoted phobias born in that willful ignorance.

[Octavious]

Too many threads, but my god he's such a pile of shit.

"You can't sit home," Trump said. "If you're sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."

[Smoove_B]

Vivek is out:

Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and author of "Woke, Inc.", announced Monday night he is suspending his presidential campaign.

"We did not achieve the surprise that we wanted to deliver tonight," he said.

Ramaswamy, who predicted to Axios in October a "solid second or third" finish in the Iowa caucuses, came in fourth in the first presidential contest. Former President Donald Trump dominated the caucuses. Ramaswamy has endorsed Trump for the nomination.

I know this isn't a surprise (was he ever really "in"?), but it should be noted for historical purposes. I guess all eyes are on DeSantis right now...

[Unagi]

I'm trying to picture the Iowa guy who voted for Ramaswamy over Trump.

[Octavious]

I really wish there was only one other candidate. Combine all those votes and it's a heck of a lot closer. I heard the turnout was terrible as well due to the weather. But the news of course is pumping up Trump. Whatever this timeline sucks.

[Smoove_B]

To be fair, he scored a little over half the votes. It feels like a guy that was a former President (lord help us) would be much, much higher. Sure he "won" the most delegates, but it's not like he won 90% of the delegates, right? It's not a win as much as it is lurching across the finish line.

Don't get me wrong, it's still sick that he's the front-runner, but I have completely spiraled into despair just yet. Soon, but not yet.