Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[Carpet_pissr]

To be fair, he scored a little over half the votes. It feels like a guy that was a former President (lord help us) would be much, much higher. Sure he "won" the most delegates, but it's not like he won 90% of the delegates, right? It's not a win as much as it is lurching across the finish line.

Don't get me wrong, it's still sick that he's the front-runner, but I have completely spiraled into despair just yet. Soon, but not yet.

Yes. Please keep feeding me this sugar coated bullshit. I think that will be my chosen defense mechanism to deal with Trump news until the election. Just blissful, one-sided hopium. And I mean that. The alternative is daily gut-wrenching anger, disillusionment and cynicism.

[malchior]

Here some more...hopium...the last three open-primary winners of Iowa were Cruz, Santorum, and Huckabee (in reverse order)!

[Smoove_B]

Still trying to understand why we give a collective fuck about what Iowa thinks.

I mean, other than the news media being able to officially start (and monetize) their "horse race" nonsense for the next 10 months.

[Carpet_pissr]

Still trying to understand why we give a collective fuck about what Iowa thinks.

I mean, other than the news media being able to officially start (and monetize) their "horse race" nonsense for the next 10 months.

That's a really good point. News media can't WAIT to start sinking their teeth into that news cycle's content. They're worse than shopping malls and retail stores starting decorating for Christmas in August.

[Smoove_B]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think they spend this much time and energy covering who's going to be the next Senator from Iowa and those clowns have more of an impact on the day-to-day life of the average American (non-Iowan) than whatever trash the GOP is going to nominate for President (gee, can't imagine who it'll be...) in 2024.

[Unagi]

I was reminded this morning that Iowa, back in 2016, nominated Ted Cruz over Donald Trump.

I'm just going to call it: GOP voters in Iowa are complete shit.

[YellowKing]

It's especially puzzling since they have an absolutely dismal track record at actually voting for the eventual nominee.

[malchior]

Still trying to understand why we give a collective fuck about what Iowa thinks.

I mean, other than the news media being able to officially start (and monetize) their "horse race" nonsense for the next 10 months.

This is all true but we did learn much.

We obtained more evidence that his base has serious issues incompatible with democracy. Something like 65% of the people polled in entrance polls said that Biden wasn't the legitimate President and a similar number said they wouldn't care if Trump was convicted. We even saw those views leaked outside his base. That reflects the delta between 51% votes Trump earned to the 65% saying such things.

We also got confirmation that the polls were accurate leading up to the event. They were almost all dead on the money. The big reputable ones were within a point on Trump and only off a point or two on DeSantis and Haley. And those two kept trading places in a narrow band which is what actually happened.

That was another good result for polling science. So that means that we have to take the polling showing major weakness in Biden very seriously. There has been vocal naysayers poo-pooing the dire Biden poll results as not accurate. I think that line of thought is dangerous. It is the sort of thinking that saw people underestimate how deeply unpopular Hillary Clinton was with the electorate.

And we've already seen a lot of handwaving away as Biden does things that are very, very, very unpopular with his base and unpopular in the general electorate. He has to start acting like someone under siege. There are major risks and there is an increasing chorus of voices begging his campaign to start taking this seriously.

[Smoove_B]

Or maybe the voting Iowans are such predictable trash, pollsters have them pegged? I mean, if their population is "stable" (i.e. it's largely the same group of people that was living there 4 years ago, just older), I'm guessing their views aren't going to change all that much, right?

I guess I'm just surprised at the breathless media coverage (ok, maybe I'm not) acting as though Iowa is some big surprise; I feel like the voting Iowans have repeatedly demonstrated they're morons - why was last night any different?

[Kurth]

I’m convinced more and more that Trump is going to win in 2024 unless convicted and jailed. His base will never leave him, and no one really wants to elect Joe Biden to a second term.

If you ask the vast majority of Americans to free associate when they hear Biden’s name, I believe the words that would most frequently come up are old, feeble, weak. Say what you want about Trump and how he’s just a couple years younger than Biden, those are not words people associate with him.

I don’t believe this country is going to elect someone who’s seen as old, feeble and weak, even if the alternative is a democracy-eating monster.

We’re fucked.

[Smoove_B]

I’m convinced more and more that Trump is going to win in 2024 unless convicted and jailed.

I'm not sure you've been following along. The Supreme Court will be ruling on how he can still be President after he's convicted and jailed. Because in this timeline, that totally makes sense.

[Kurth]

I’m convinced more and more that Trump is going to win in 2024 unless convicted and jailed.

I'm not sure you've been following along. The Supreme Court will be ruling on how he can still be President after he's convicted and jailed. Because in this timeline, that totally makes sense.

I almost added that caveat. But I don’t think that’s what happens. I think if Trump is convicted and jailed, even if the Supreme Court rules he can still be President, all bets are off. I think rather than him being elected President, there are riots that devolve into outright civil unrest and a spiraling of our country down the drain into outright authoritarian rule. So there’s always that to look forward to!

[Unagi]

I’m convinced more and more that Trump is going to win in 2024 unless convicted and jailed. His base will never leave him, and no one really wants to elect Joe Biden to a second term.

If you ask the vast majority of Americans to free associate when they hear Biden’s name, I believe the words that would most frequently come up are old, feeble, weak. Say what you want about Trump and how he’s just a couple years younger than Biden, those are not words people associate with him.

I don’t believe this country is going to elect someone who’s seen as old, feeble and weak, even if the alternative is a democracy-eating monster.

We’re fucked.

I think that people (these days specifically) vote not "for a candidate" but rather against one they don't want. And to that point, I think that there has never been a candidate that has as much negative baggage as Trump. Eight years ago, that was HRC - and Trump won the election on account of it. If you were of the mind that Hillary was the absolute worst thing ~ you looked at Trump as the best candidate. So, it will come down to who is the bigger boogy man. Trump, established - and the turn out that will keep him out of office will be like it was before or more - it's not about Biden, it's about Trump. And the other side, the "Biden MUST be kept out of office, I hate him!" is not quite as explosive as the anti-HRC energy.

I'm not trying to be optimistic, because I'm not, but I think that it's more about driving out the vote that is indeed Fear driven. And I think the advantage there goes to Biden.

[YellowKing]

As pessimistic as I am, I tend to agree with Unagi. If people really didn't care about MAGA, they wouldn't have turned out during the mid-terms to crush the Red Wave we were all told was coming. I'm betting on those people to show up again to quietly save the world just as they did in 2020. It's my only hope.

[waitingtoconnect]

Once Israel invaded Gaza Biden was toast. With such a narrow election Biden will leak two key parts of his support: Jewish people and the young none of whom will be happy unless he threads the needle.

And the steal has been going on pre trump. Gerrymandering and things like the North Carolina governors election in 2016 where the power of the governor was limited …. I don’t think they’ll make the mistake of losing in Georgia and Wisconsin this time. I predict a lot of county officials refusing to certify results.

[Carpet_pissr]

Once Israel invaded Gaza Biden was toast. With such a narrow election Biden will leak two key parts of his support: Jewish people and the young none of whom will be happy unless he threads the needle.

Jewish people?! Anti-Netanyahu Jewish people maybe? Any non-extreme right wing Jews that support the actions that Israel took should be thrilled with Biden.

[waitingtoconnect]

Sorry I meant to say his Jewish base. The issue is Biden has to choose who he upsets. His Jewish base; or his youth vote base who oppose the bombing of Gaza. Politically he will lose support; and in a close race that could benefit Trump. For Congressional and Senate races, since 1968, American Jews have voted about 70–80% for Democrats and 75% support how Biden has handled the war so far. However nearly three-quarters of people aged 18-29 disapprove of Biden’s Israel policy.

Whats interesting looking back at posts in this forum over the years is there is a universal disdain for Trump from posters here. That gives me hope the rest of the nation will reject him.

BUT...

The Democrats can't just run on the status quo - when you are working for $3/hr plus tips or $8.95 at Walmart and barely existing thats not going to work. Sooner or later letting Trump burn it down either though malice of incompetence is going to feel like the best choice.

[Alefroth]

I wonder what became of Drazzil.

[malchior]

Meanwhile....this is the firepower that Biden is bringing to the campaign.

Q: What do you say to the idea that young people think Biden is too old and have serious issues with his policies such as the war in Gaza...

A: Well I'm going to campaign and think he's shown leadership on (insert list of stuff that people < 40 generally don't care about at all)

It really seems like the Democrats *just do not get it*.

[Unagi]

I'm not sure what you expect him to say in this instance.

[El Guapo]

I'm not sure what you expect him to say in this instance.

We're doomed because John Kerry is not charismatic. I know this is a shock to everyone.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'm not sure what you expect him to say in this instance.

We're doomed because John Kerry is not charismatic. I know this is a shock to everyone.

I was about to post this myself and pile on a bit here, but I watched the video: if Team Biden actually reached out to Kerry to drum up youth support and whatever else she said, then I sadly agree with Malchior.

Hopefully the strategy is nothing near: ‘ok guys, we need to fire up the youth vote! Who can we get?
…
…
“…uhhh I know John Kerry pretty well”
“Perfect! Another boring old, out of touch white man…we definitely need more of that! Do whatever it takes to get him on board and send him around the media circuit for some riveting interviews’.

[YellowKing]

I think it's far too early to judge Biden's campaign strategy. We don't even have an official Republican nominee yet.

[stessier]

I'm not sure anyone talking at Davos was meant to get out the youth vote.

[El Guapo]

As pessimistic as I am, I tend to agree with Unagi. If people really didn't care about MAGA, they wouldn't have turned out during the mid-terms to crush the Red Wave we were all told was coming. I'm betting on those people to show up again to quietly save the world just as they did in 2020. It's my only hope.

Yeah, my main hopes are that, the unique awfulness of Trump personally, and that Biden will be an incumbent during a time when the economy is doing well. And anecdotally, I'm planning on actually traveling to a swing state (probably NC) to do some campaigning, so I'm hoping that I'm not going to be unusual in that.

[Smoove_B]

that Biden will be an incumbent during a time when the economy is doing well.

I'm not sure you've been paying attention. It doesn't matter what the actual economy looks like in 2024 (or even Fall of 2024), it matters how people feel about the economy. Have grocery bills remained high - that's Biden's fault. Price at the pump too much? Also Biden's fault. Can't buy a house because boomers won't downsize and prices/mortgage rates are too high? Biden. And of course, you know how we fix all that? That's right - we build a wall along the Texas border, that's how.

[malchior]

I think it's far too early to judge Biden's campaign strategy. We don't even have an official Republican nominee yet.

Traditionally I'd agree but too much is at stake. And the latter comment is technically true but effectively there has been a nominee and he has been campaigning for months now.

We're also hearing that Democratic strategists including Obama have pretty much taken up efforts that are the equivalent of shaking them by the shoulders and telling them they're not taking this seriously. They've been urging the administration to send leaders to the campaign and kickstart efforts now.

[El Guapo]

that Biden will be an incumbent during a time when the economy is doing well.

I'm not sure you've been paying attention. It doesn't matter what the actual economy looks like in 2024 (or even Fall of 2024), it matters how people feel about the economy. Have grocery bills remained high - that's Biden's fault. Price at the pump too much? Also Biden's fault. Can't buy a house because boomers won't downsize and prices/mortgage rates are too high? Biden. And of course, you know how we fix all that? That's right - we build a wall along the Texas border, that's how.

I know, I'm just hoping that a material number of low information voters will get in the voting booth and think essentially "eh, I'm doing ok, might as well not shake things up."

[malchior]

I'm not sure what you expect him to say in this instance.

We're doomed because John Kerry is not charismatic. I know this is a shock to everyone.

I was about to post this myself and pile on a bit here, but I watched the video: if Team Biden actually reached out to Kerry to drum up youth support and whatever else she said, then I sadly agree with Malchior.

Hopefully the strategy is nothing near: ‘ok guys, we need to fire up the youth vote! Who can we get?
…
…
“…uhhh I know John Kerry pretty well”
“Perfect! Another boring old, out of touch white man…we definitely need more of that! Do whatever it takes to get him on board and send him around the media circuit for some riveting interviews’.

I think this gets the issue backwards. I don't think they are getting Kerry to drum up the youth vote. The issue to think about is that choosing people like Kerry to kickstart the campaign shows they don't aren't thinking about what firepower they need to address the significant issues with the youth vote. Much like Clinton 2016, they have been ignoring a significant problem so far. Biden's electability with young people. We just saw a massive protest over the weekend by mostly young people calling him amongst other things "Genocide Joe". It got limited coverage but still it happened.

Edit: Just to give you a taste of what the Biden campaign is saying to the press about the issue. Maybe they'll be right. I hope they are but they seem to be in an ignore the evidence mode. We've seen how well that turns out.

Teen Vogue - a surprisingly good piece talking through this issue - it's a good primer believe it or not.

When reached for a statement, a representative for the Biden campaign tells Teen Vogue that, while the campaign is not taking the youth vote for granted, they are not alarmed by the polling. The campaign representative also says they aren’t particularly worried by the lack of support of young voters over Biden’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war, as polling has shown that young voters are more motivated to vote based on issues that are important to them, “which are economy, climate change, guns, and abortion,” as opposed to foreign policy.

[LordMortis]

I know, I'm just hoping that a material number of low information voters will get in the voting booth and think essentially "eh, I'm doing ok, might as well not shake things up."

You really would think that would be the case, wouldn't you? Anecdotally, it is definitely not.

Lucky I'm still sane after all I've been through
Everybody says I'm cool
I can't complain, but sometimes I still do
Life's been good to me so far

And then vote for "I'm not MAGA but he did some great things, like the border and economy and he was right about the China Virus."

[malchior]

I think the question not being asked is what happens if people don't bother to vote. That could concentrate the impact of the side that is more motivated. This is especially important in a world where the last election was decided by tens of thousands of votes in key locations.

[Kraken]

As pessimistic as I am, I tend to agree with Unagi. If people really didn't care about MAGA, they wouldn't have turned out during the mid-terms to crush the Red Wave we were all told was coming. I'm betting on those people to show up again to quietly save the world just as they did in 2020. It's my only hope.

Yeah, my main hopes are that, the unique awfulness of Trump personally, and that Biden will be an incumbent during a time when the economy is doing well. And anecdotally, I'm planning on actually traveling to a swing state (probably NC) to do some campaigning, so I'm hoping that I'm not going to be unusual in that.

Heather Cox Richardson's Tuesday column had a good perspective:

In yesterday’s Iowa caucus, 51% of Republican caucusgoers chose former president Donald Trump as their preferred candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Twenty-one percent of Republican caucusgoers chose Florida governor Ron DeSantis. Nineteen percent chose former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Seven percent chose technology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. ... Turnout was much lower than expected, with only about 110,000 people voting. That’s about 15% of Iowa’s three quarters of a million registered Republicans out of a population of just over 3 million people.
...
The Iowa results pretty much told us what we already knew. Trump remains the dominant leader of the hard-right older Republicans who turn out for caucuses, but is so generally unpopular that 49% of Iowa caucusgoers—the party’s most dedicated supporters in a deeply Republican state—chose someone else. The Trump base is older—entry polls showed that only 27% of yesterday’s voters were under the age of 50—and Trump won most handily in the rural, white counties that look least like the rest of the country. His greatest increase in support since 2016 came among white evangelicals.

She's generally optimistic about trump's likelihood of losing, and since she's much smarter than I am I find her reassuring. But of course she's primarily a historian, and only secondarily a political pundit.

[El Guapo]

As pessimistic as I am, I tend to agree with Unagi. If people really didn't care about MAGA, they wouldn't have turned out during the mid-terms to crush the Red Wave we were all told was coming. I'm betting on those people to show up again to quietly save the world just as they did in 2020. It's my only hope.

Yeah, my main hopes are that, the unique awfulness of Trump personally, and that Biden will be an incumbent during a time when the economy is doing well. And anecdotally, I'm planning on actually traveling to a swing state (probably NC) to do some campaigning, so I'm hoping that I'm not going to be unusual in that.

Heather Cox Richardson's Tuesday column had a good perspective:

In yesterday’s Iowa caucus, 51% of Republican caucusgoers chose former president Donald Trump as their preferred candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Twenty-one percent of Republican caucusgoers chose Florida governor Ron DeSantis. Nineteen percent chose former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Seven percent chose technology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. ... Turnout was much lower than expected, with only about 110,000 people voting. That’s about 15% of Iowa’s three quarters of a million registered Republicans out of a population of just over 3 million people.
...
The Iowa results pretty much told us what we already knew. Trump remains the dominant leader of the hard-right older Republicans who turn out for caucuses, but is so generally unpopular that 49% of Iowa caucusgoers—the party’s most dedicated supporters in a deeply Republican state—chose someone else. The Trump base is older—entry polls showed that only 27% of yesterday’s voters were under the age of 50—and Trump won most handily in the rural, white counties that look least like the rest of the country. His greatest increase in support since 2016 came among white evangelicals.

She's generally optimistic about trump's likelihood of losing, and since she's much smarter than I am I find her reassuring. But of course she's primarily a historian, and only secondarily a political pundit.

Yeah, I've read this argument in a couple places. About half of conservative Iowa voters chose someone other than Trump, so he's weak! But like...I think it's fair to assume that the bulk of DeSantis and Ramaswamy voters are going to vote for Trump over Biden. It's hard to say that the second place finisher being someone whose campaign theme was essentially "Trump but more extreme and competent" tells us that there's some untapped surge of anti-Trump voters in the GOP.

[El Guapo]

Good column in the New Yorker by Jonathan Chait about the national political environment that I agree with almost entirely.

For both of these factions, Trump is doing nothing to actively win their support. He is merely a passive instrument to demonstrate their anger with other components of the anti-Trump coalition. If you probe beneath the surface of that dynamic, it reveals a deeper malady: the collapse of the idea that Trump represents an unusual and dangerous figure. That premise played a decisive role in 2020 by allowing Biden to win voters who had not traditionally backed the party. Many of those tell pollsters they are planning to revert to their traditional Republican leanings this year. The qualities that made Trump uniquely unacceptable have, for the moment, receded in their minds.

In a political world in which Trump’s contempt for democratic norms and desire to use the presidency as a tool of revenge against the media and his political rivals were seen as the most important stakes of the election — that is, a rational world, in my estimation — the concerns people have with Biden would seem comparatively trivial. Maybe you think he’s too old or too pro-Israel, or you really want to use your vote to express your hatred for the campus left, but that could hardly justify empowering a monster, right?

This is not the world in which we reside. In the U.S. at the outset of 2024, democracy and authoritarianism are, as a pure question of political advantage, essentially a draw. A recent survey by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg found Biden held a mere one-point advantage on “protecting democracy” and was tied on “making democracy more secure.” On “opposing extremism,” “getting beyond the chaos,” and “protecting the Constitution,” Trump held leads ranging from three to eight points.

It's like...if Biden can't get a polling edge on "protecting democracy"...WTF is going on?

[YellowKing]

I think the biggest takeaway is lack of motivation to vote for him, which is going to be the deciding factor. That's what's doomed nearly every political candidate he's endorsed since he left office.

[malchior]

I think the biggest takeaway is lack of motivation to vote for him, which is going to be the deciding factor. That's what's doomed nearly every political candidate he's endorsed since he left office.

I think lack of a motivated base is going to be incredibly important for both sides. If there is anything the data is telling us it is that many don't want either of these two and a repeat of 2020. It is leading to major disinterest in several constituencies. And that is buttressed with the polarization we are seeing. That's why it's likely to be such a competitive race. As much as people want to wish cast the turn out from 2022 or other smaller elections onto 2024, that is highly unlikely. Presidential elections do not look like mid-terms.

[malchior]

It's like...if Biden can't get a polling edge on "protecting democracy"...WTF is going on?

There are some theories which Chait doesn't touch much about in that piece but it comes down to something talked about for a long time. The Democrats cannot communicate with parts of the electorate for some reason.

Brian Beutler for instance today has a good piece touching on some of this. I'll summarize a little because it is paywalled but he is essentially talking about the Biden campaign's media strategy. It is currently envisioned as a $1B television ad buy to convince voters about all the good things that Biden has done.

Beutler points out that many people are cord cutters and more that many people live in right-wing misinformation bubbles. The Democrats seemingly have no strategy (at least yet) to address misinformation and connect with people who you know don't watch tv. That's critical because less than 50% of households even have traditional TV. And yet, a tv strategy is still useful and valuable, but it seems like they are at least for now ceding part of the information space to Trump and his team. And they are being enabled by a lot of interests who don't care very much about democracy surviving.

Like I said earlier today there are indicators that we have a campaign and a candidate that appear out of touch with the reality we are facing. Yelling 'end of democracy' alone isn't going to cut it.

[Holman]

It's like...if Biden can't get a polling edge on "protecting democracy"...WTF is going on?

Democrats understand "protecting democracy" to mean "prevent an authoritarian dictatorship."

Republicans understand it to mean "STop the StEal!!"

[Smoove_B]

I'm no expert but I can't help but think the Democrats aren't going to be campaigning on anything in January of an election year. Feels (to me) like they're trying to allow all the Trump nonsense to stay at the top of the news cycle (like his court appearance today) and at some unknown point in the late Spring or early Summer they're going to start a media blitz with the understanding that the average attention span of their target audience (the uncommitted and reluctant (D) voters) is going to focus on what's happening closer to election today than whatever is going on right now.

Maybe I'm way off base, but because they're not a cult, they don't need to keep everyone at a fever pitch for 10+ months over whatever ooga booga they've identified as important for that week.

[El Guapo]

It's like...if Biden can't get a polling edge on "protecting democracy"...WTF is going on?

There are some theories which Chait doesn't touch much about in that piece but it comes down to something talked about for a long time. The Democrats cannot communicate with parts of the electorate for some reason.

Brian Beutler for instance today has a good piece touching on some of this. I'll summarize a little because it is paywalled but he is essentially talking about the Biden campaign's media strategy. It is currently envisioned as a $1B television ad buy to convince voters about all the good things that Biden has done.

Beutler points out that many people are cord cutters and more that many people live in right-wing misinformation bubbles. The Democrats seemingly have no strategy (at least yet) to address misinformation and connect with people who you know don't watch tv. That's critical because less than 50% of households even have traditional TV. And yet, a tv strategy is still useful and valuable, but it seems like they are at least for now ceding part of the information space to Trump and his team. And they are being enabled by a lot of interests who don't care very much about democracy surviving.

Like I said earlier today there are indicators that we have a campaign and a candidate that appear out of touch with the reality we are facing. Yelling 'end of democracy' alone isn't going to cut it.

Yeah I think there's a lot of truth to that (and like Beutler's work a lot in general). I think it's not totally clear what the best way to fight the conservative media bubbles are, but it's hard to avoid the conclusion that they are a big part of the problem.