Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[Carpet_pissr]

True, but every election cycle it becomes slightly less true. Buttigieg is young enough to outlive that bias as it ages out of the population. Maybe not in '28, but in '32, or '36, or...? Meanwhile, he continues to burnish his resume and network.

Apparently America loves our octogenarian politicians, so it could be also be '40, '44...

[El Guapo]

I'm not so sure a protest vote in a meaningless election necessarily means those same people will vote for a sociopath dick-tater come November.

Yup. What makes me nervous is the narrow vote margins and the likely consequences if Trump wins. But this 'uncommitted' result being not all that much higher than it was in 2012 when there wasn't (as far as I'm aware) a campaign to try to increase it doesn't make me especially nervous. In many ways I'm more comforted by Biden winning handily in NH as a write-in than I am made nervous by the Michigan uncommitted result.

[waitingtoconnect]

Don’t get me wrong he impresses me because I don’t care what his personal life or preferences are.

But in a broader sense I think large portions of the electorate would view him as unelectable.

As for Arab Americans, they face the same choice many of us do. Actually go and vote for Biden holding your nose or don’t vote for Biden ensuring a trump victory and a new Muslim ban eliminating your families from being able to visit, the possible deportation of your families from America citizenship or not and even more assistance for Israel on destroying Gaza.

[LordMortis]

As for Arab Americans, they face the same choice many of us do. Actually go and vote for Biden holding your nose or don’t vote for Biden ensuring a trump victory and a new Muslim ban eliminating your families from being able to visit, the possible deportation of your families from America citizenship or not and even more assistance for Israel on destroying Gaza.

Ding! Though I am not as hostile to Biden as others. Either his age isn't as bad as we make it out to be (though I suspect it is) or he's still competent enough to delegate power in a way that is surprisingly (to me at least) well done (which I suspect is the case) and we have to trust that if he passes or loses competency to deteriorating health (which is a realistic possibility), Harris will at the very least be acceptable as president (and irrespective of collective GOP hysteria and bigotry I have seen no reason to doubt this).

[YellowKing]

Though I am not as hostile to Biden as others.

I'm the same way. I don't get the hate for him (especially among Democrats). At his best he got a tremendous amount of accomplishments passed despite a divided Congress. At worst, maybe he hasn't been as great a foreign policy leader in certain areas of the world as we'd want him to be (though I think his rallying the troops against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine response was well-played).

If the hate is because inflation/economy, then I just go back to the fact that presidents have far less sway over that than people think. I scratch my head why his approval would be in the 30s, other than the idea that people just hate all presidents now.

[Victoria Raverna]

Maybe Biden is really too old?

https://nbcmontana.com/news/nation-worl ... 4-election

WASHINGTON (TND) — President Joe Biden is using “cheat sheet” notecards to answer questions at private fundraising events, sparking concerns among some leading donors, Axios reported.

While past presidents have leaned on notes and teleprompters for live events, Biden has reportedly kept the cheat sheets on hand even at private events full of his own supporters. The notes aid Biden in identifying pre-screened audience members during Q&A sessions and he relies on them to help give detailed answers about his own policy, according to Axios.

These sessions, the outlet wrote, “have left some donors wondering whether Biden can withstand the rigors of a presidential campaign.” While the notes are prepared beforehand by staff as a safeguard to make Biden’s events successful, pre-event briefings reportedly often see the president become “demanding, difficult to please — and frequently profane.”

Despite this, some donors say they are pleased with Biden’s campaign efforts thus far, according to Axios. Biden has reportedly already accumulated a sizable cash lead over Republicans and some fundraiser attendees say the president feels relaxed and poised while making impromptu responses.

Biden has caught flack as of late for off-the-cuff remarks. Russian officials shared outrage after the president referred to Russia’s Vladimir Putin as a “crazy SOB” Wednesday.

"This is a huge disgrace for the country... for the United States,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reportedly said. “If a president uses that kind of language, he should be ashamed. It's clear that Mr. Biden is behaving like a Hollywood cowboy to score domestic political points.”

Respondents to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday said they worry about 81-year-old Biden’s ability to serve a second term. While Biden holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical election, 67% say Biden is too old to effectively serve another term. A smaller group of respondents, 57%, said the same of Trump, who is 77.

[Unagi]

That is not really all that concerning.

[Unagi]

Maybe Biden is really too old?

Too old for me to put my vote on him, vs. Trump?



Oh I Don't Think So.

That is literally the only question, re: age, I will need to ask myself in Nov.

[YellowKing]

At this point Biden could be publicly shitting his pants and I'd still vote for him over Trump.

[LordMortis]

At this point Biden could be publicly shitting his pants and I'd still vote for him over Trump.

Yep. He could have TFG diaper pants and a demonstrable smell and still be the hands down, no comparison winner of my vote. Of course, that has nothing to do with his awareness and intellect and decision making skills. I'm sure there is a line of decline where I would actually vote for TFG. We're nowhere near it. Not even in the same zip code.

[Zarathud]

That is not really all that concerning.

Less concerning than Victoria posting articles with Kremlin comments on Biden? The agenda is transparent.

[El Guapo]

That is not really all that concerning.

100%. ZOMG Biden uses note cards to remember things when talking! Also, that Biden uses them more than prior presidents is also consistent with him understanding that the political impact of him forgetting something or mixing something up is orders of magnitude worse than the impact of prior presidents doing so.

[Unagi]

That is not really all that concerning.

100%. ZOMG Biden uses note cards to remember things when talking! Also, that Biden uses them more than prior presidents is also consistent with him understanding that the political impact of him forgetting something or mixing something up is orders of magnitude worse than the impact of prior presidents doing so.

"Putin is a crazy SOB" is also -spot on- classic Joe Biden. If anything, that comment made me think "Oh, well that's the Joe Biden I remember!"

[waitingtoconnect]

That is not really all that concerning.

It’s so good to see that Russian influence is so high over the GoP now that they are asked directly to comment on Bidens remarks rather than go through the middle man.

Right now I’d vote for an inanimate carbon rod over trump.

[gbasden]

I'm sure there is a line of decline where I would actually vote for TFG.

I'm quite sure there is not for me.

[Victoria Raverna]

That is not really all that concerning.

Less concerning than Victoria posting articles with Kremlin comments on Biden? The agenda is transparent.

The Kremlin comment was about Biden's comment on Putin. Not that surprising that Kremlin is going to respond to Biden's comment on Putin.

[Kurth]

That is not really all that concerning.

It’s so good to see that Russian influence is so high over the GoP now that they are asked directly to comment on Bidens remarks rather than go through the middle man.

Right now I’d vote for an inanimate carbon rod over trump.

Too bad a majority of Americans don’t feel the same.

President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald J. Trump just as their general-election contest is about to begin, a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found.

With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.

Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction. More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.

The poll offers an array of warning signs for the president about weaknesses within the Democratic coalition, including among women, Black and Latino voters. So far, it is Mr. Trump who has better unified his party, even amid an ongoing primary contest.

[Alefroth]

I wonder if Michigan's uncommitted are listening to this-

At campaign rallies, Trump routinely says he would carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in history if re-elected. Trump also vows to reinstate his infamous Muslim travel ban, expand it to include Gazan refugees, and incorporate “ideological screenings” for all immigrants.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... rcna141535

[Kurth]

I'm hoping someone here can take apart this poll and give me a compelling reason not to be scared shitless that we're careening toward another Trump administration:

Majority of Biden’s 2020 Voters Now Say He’s Too Old to Be Effective
A New York Times/Siena College poll revealed how much even his supporters worry about his age, intensifying what has become a grave threat to his re-election bid.

Widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with a majority of voters who supported him in 2020 now saying he is too old to lead the country effectively, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.

The survey pointed to a fundamental shift in how voters who backed Mr. Biden four years ago have come to see him. A striking 61 percent said they thought he was “just too old” to be an effective president.

A sizable share was even more worried: Nineteen percent of those who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and 13 percent of those who said they would back him in November, said the 81-year-old president’s age was such a problem that he was no longer capable of handling the job.

The misgivings about Mr. Biden’s age cut across generations, gender, race and education, underscoring the president’s failure to dispel both concerns within his own party and Republican attacks painting him as senile. Seventy-three percent of all registered voters said he was too old to be effective, and 45 percent expressed a belief that he could not do the job.

Here's a quote from a 2020 Biden voter from Louisiana who is likely going to vote for Trump in 2024. It would be funny if it weren't horrifying:

Otto Abad, 50, an independent voter in Scott, La., said he voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but planned to flip his support to Mr. Trump if they faced off again. Last time, he wanted a less divisive figure in the White House after the chaos of the Trump administration. Now, he worries that Mr. Biden is not quite up for a second term.

He added: “Trump, one of the few things I would say good about him, is that nothing seems to bother him. He seems like he’s in the same mental shape he was 10 years ago, 12 years ago, 15 years ago. He’s like a cockroach.”

Mr. Abad is far from alone. Just 15 percent of voters who supported Mr. Trump in 2020 said they thought he was now too old to be an effective president, and 42 percent of all voters said the same — a much lower share than for Mr. Biden. Polling from the 2020 race indicates that the share of voters who believe Mr. Trump is too old has also increased over the past four years, but not as drastically as for Mr. Biden . . .

In the most recent Times survey, 19 percent of all voters said Mr. Trump’s age was such a problem that he was not capable of handling the presidency. And in a sign of Republicans’ far greater confidence in their likely nominee, less than 1 percent of voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2020 said his age made him incapable.

It seems like the antidote to this problem is to just get Biden out in public as much as possible, displaying for all to see that he is vibrant and cogent and hasn't lost his fastball. But it doesn't feel like that's happening.

I don't have any stats on Biden's public appearances. I tried to look at his public calendar to get a sense, but it was too much data and in a pretty unhelpful format. I do know that it's been suggested that minimizing Biden's exposure to unscripted moments is a distinct strategy he and his campaign have embraced, and Biden has held the fewest news conferences since Reagan.

I don't know where all this leaves us. I get that we're stuck with Biden at this point. There's no cavalry riding in. And to that end, part of me wishes the media would stop focussing on his age so much. But that's not really fair either. The media's job is not to save democracy. It's to report the news. And coverage of Biden's age - perhaps the singular feature of his 2024 campaign - seems newsworthy.

I think we're left with simply hoping that a sufficiently high number of voters reach the same conclusion that this guy did:

Brian Wells, 35, a lawyer from Huntsville, Ala., described himself as a reluctant supporter of Mr. Biden. He was frustrated that there were not other choices for the top of the presidential ticket, and was convinced that Mr. Biden was not entirely up to the duties of the office.

Still, Mr. Wells plans to cast his ballot to re-elect the president in November.

“He’s incompetent. He’s clearly struggling to fulfill his duties,” he said. “He’s clearly reached the point where he’s too old for the job. But he’s still a step ahead of Trump.”

[Scoop20906]

It seems like the antidote to this problem is to just get Biden out in public as much as possible, displaying for all to see that he is vibrant and cogent and hasn't lost his fastball. But it doesn't feel like that's happening.

I agree with you Kurth but I don't want to see Biden giving speeches or any rally stuff. Just have him out talking with people one on one which he excels at. I loved it when he showed up to that picket line in MI. He can give a short statement to the press pool but more video of Biden just talking with people would be great.

[Holman]

“He’s incompetent. He’s clearly struggling to fulfill his duties,” he said. “He’s clearly reached the point where he’s too old for the job. But he’s still a step ahead of Trump.”

This is the thing. Current media loves this kind of soundbite for its drama and its intensity, but they also love to sidestep the question of whether Biden *is* incompetent and struggling to fulfill his duties.

From all reasonable accounts, that's just not the case. Journalists who meet with him describe him as old but still sharp enough to make his points.

Meanwhile, Trump is out there in rallies stumbling to finish his sentences (or not) and declaring that he'll beat Barack Hussein Obama again like he did in 2016 and 2020.

[LordMortis]

“He’s incompetent. He’s clearly struggling to fulfill his duties,” he said. “He’s clearly reached the point where he’s too old for the job. But he’s still a step ahead of Trump.”

This is the thing. Current media loves this kind of soundbite for its drama and its intensity, but they also love to sidestep the question of whether Biden *is* incompetent and struggling to fulfill his duties.

From all reasonable accounts, that's just not the case. Journalists who meet with him describe him as old but still sharp enough to make his points.

Meanwhile, Trump is out there in rallies stumbling to finish his sentences (or not) and declaring that he'll beat Barack Hussein Obama again like he did in 2016 and 2020.

And can't pick out his wife and... I maintain my confidence in Biden is his track record. He delegated and put people in place to do a better job than I expected. TFG OTOH, put the worst people in place to do anything but burn their work to the ground and grift and then he'd badmouth them and they'd leave and if they weren't grifters or criminals they'd keep their mouths shut at best or lay in to his presidency at worst. To say nothing of his commitment to the transition of power.

[waitingtoconnect]

I'm hoping someone here can take apart this poll and give me a compelling reason not to be scared shitless that we're careening toward another Trump administration:

So by the person in the articles admission Trump is a cockroach. And thus he should be voted for.

When teachers say online that we don’t teach critical reasoning in high school anymore I say this helps prove it.

President Cockroach ahoy.


The media’s job is to distract us with a Coke-Pepsi choice so you ignore any viable alternatives to the current two party system. That way we are always turkeys voting between Christmas and Thanksgiving.

Anyway don’t blame me, I’m voting for Pepsi Christmas.

[YellowKing]

The polling just boggles my mind. It's seemingly like the better the economy gets, the worse Joe's poll numbers. The more Trump fucks up, the better his numbers. I just don't understand reality anymore.

[waitingtoconnect]

The polling just boggles my mind. It's seemingly like the better the economy gets the worse Joe's poll numbers. The more Trump fucks up, the better his numbers. I just don't understand reality anymore.

The issue is the democrats haven’t followed through on their promises because they assume trump is too crazy to vote for. They are taking voters for granted. And transparently aside from gun rights and abortion they run a unity ticket with the republicans.

And on things like Israel, Afghanistan, the border etc they keep kicking their supporters in the head with either incompetence or ineptness.

The thing s important to the real person on the street they ignore in a cost of living crisis.



Did they repeal the trump tax cuts? No. Have they delivered real minimum wage support. No. Have they delivered real health care (which we can afford). No. Have they kept us in endless forever wars overseas. Yes. Have they done anything about the border. No.

So like Drazzil? (Was that his name?) people want Trump to shake it up or in his own folly to burn it down so they get the change they know democrats keep promising but won’t give them.

[YellowKing]

Did they repeal the trump tax cuts? No. Have they delivered real minimum wage support. No. Have they delivered real health care (which we can afford). No. Have they kept us in endless forever wars overseas. Yes. Have they done anything about the border. No.

Everything you're saying the Democrats haven't delivered, the Republicans have delivered not only *less* but actively campaigned *against*. And we both know the border bill was right there waiting to be signed and MAGA Republicans killed it on arrival.

[waitingtoconnect]

Did they repeal the trump tax cuts? No. Have they delivered real minimum wage support. No. Have they delivered real health care (which we can afford). No. Have they kept us in endless forever wars overseas. Yes. Have they done anything about the border. No.

Everything you're saying the Democrats haven't delivered, the Republicans have delivered not only *less* but actively campaigned *against*. And we both know the border bill was right there waiting to be signed and MAGA Republicans killed it on arrival.

You are right but until 2022 the democrats held the presidency and both houses yet could deliver nothing. People see this.

Now a thinking person sees the republicans as transparently worse. But most don’t see it that way - they say I feel worse off than 4 years ago I’m voting for the other guy. Like I said Pepsi aggravates my diabetes so I’m voting for Coke!

Not repealing the trump tax cuts for example results in a massive net impact to most tax payers.

[YellowKing]

I think they see it from both parties, and that's why we have this pendulum swinging back and forth every term (not always the Presidency, but certainly within Congress). It's a frantic attempt to get someone to accomplish anything.

The problem is we're past the point where those parties are a matter of policy differences. One is actively trying to turn us into a theocracy and take us back to the good old days of the 1950s where women and minorities knew their fucking place.

I guess my daughter's loss of autonomy over her own body is a small price to pay for $3.00 gas.

[waitingtoconnect]

Yes you are right. Our two party political system is not designed for us to cope if one or god forbid both major parties are compromised.



$3 gas is important. So is a sweet tax rebate on a new 1 mile per gallon 1950s style truck.

[Zarathud]

The current overseas wars do not involve US troops. We’re proving funding for strategic purposes (if Republicans allow it) only. But Biden gets the backlash for these wars that are the fallout from Trump foreign policy of being anti-NATO and supporting Netanyahu.

The Trump tax cuts phase out in 2026, without doing much.

Democrats passed a lot, and Biden is considered very successful by what he did pass before Republicans shut down legislation.

[Unagi]

You are right but until 2022 the democrats held the presidency and both houses yet could deliver nothing. People see this.

They did not have the type of majority needed. IIRC

[Kraken]

You are right but until 2022 the democrats held the presidency and both houses yet could deliver nothing. People see this.

They did not have the type of majority needed. IIRC

It's a testament to Biden's dealmaking skill that they accomplished as much as they did despite the constant cat-and-mouse games by Manchin and Sinema.

The American Recovery Act
The bipartisan infrastructure bill (that eluded trump his entire term)
The Inflation Reduction Act (that tackles climate change for the first time and authorizes Medicare to negotiate drug prices)
The CHIPS and Science Act
The first gun control bill in decades (weak sauce, but better than nothing)
Billions in student loan forgiveness
Rallying NATO (after TFG did his best to kill it) and restoring American prestige abroad
Unemployment below 4% for 24 continuous months and counting
Wage growth outpacing inflation
The long-threatened recession receded; economic growth continues to exceed all predictions.

But tell me again how the Dems delivered nothing and Biden is ineffective. Because that's how the public sees it. 2/3 of us say the US is on the wrong track. A majority believe we're in a recession (despite having the strongest economy with the lowest inflation in the western world). A majority say that Biden's policies have harmed rather than helped them.

I'm not a Democrat and I understand their shortcomings, especially regarding the border and identity politics, and now the disaster in Gaza. But the disconnect between perceived reality and actual reality is maddening. Republicans excel at instilling and exploiting grievances. Blocking progress is easier than making progress.

[Alefroth]

You are right but until 2022 the democrats held the presidency and both houses yet could deliver nothing. People see this.

The control of the senate was very tenuous.

[waitingtoconnect]

You are right but until 2022 the democrats held the presidency and both houses yet could deliver nothing. People see this.

They did not have the type of majority needed. IIRC

It's a testament to Biden's dealmaking skill that they accomplished as much as they did despite the constant cat-and-mouse games by Manchin and Sinema.

The American Recovery Act
The bipartisan infrastructure bill (that eluded trump his entire term)
The Inflation Reduction Act (that tackles climate change for the first time and authorizes Medicare to negotiate drug prices)
The CHIPS and Science Act
The first gun control bill in decades (weak sauce, but better than nothing)
Billions in student loan forgiveness
Rallying NATO (after TFG did his best to kill it) and restoring American prestige abroad
Unemployment below 4% for 24 continuous months and counting
Wage growth outpacing inflation
The long-threatened recession receded; economic growth continues to exceed all predictions.

But tell me again how the Dems delivered nothing and Biden is ineffective. Because that's how the public sees it. 2/3 of us say the US is on the wrong track. A majority believe we're in a recession (despite having the strongest economy with the lowest inflation in the western world). A majority say that Biden's policies have harmed rather than helped them.

I'm not a Democrat and I understand their shortcomings, especially regarding the border and identity politics, and now the disaster in Gaza. But the disconnect between perceived reality and actual reality is maddening. Republicans excel at instilling and exploiting grievances. Blocking progress is easier than making progress.

The main issue in my opinion is the trump tax cuts which as the table above shows has cost lower earners substantially in terms of aid programs which were cut to support tax cuts for millionaires. In some cases you are talking $40-50 a month plus the cost of living impacts.

Combined with the fact that for most people it doesn’t matter who the president is combined with job security and benefits that are highly fragile if they exist at all it breeds constant fear.

As a colleague of mine says the maga republicans are going to keep chopping feathers off the American Eagle till it stops flying. Then they are going to blame the democrats.

[Kraken]

The main issue in my opinion is the trump tax cuts which

...which will expire in Biden's second term. Unless he doesn't get one.

In light of the busy legislative agenda that I outlined above, why would Biden spend political points to let the Republicans scream about Democrats raising taxes?

[Jaymann]

As I see it there are three possible scenarios:

1. Biden wins and the MAGATs piss and moan and riot, but ultimately to no avail.

2. Agent Orange wins and the Democrats will be forced to fight a rear guard action against fascism in the blue states.

3. Biden wins, but the Banana Republican state houses send "official" bad faith electors who declare Agent Orange the winner.

The third outcome may be the most problematic as it will be a shit show all the way down.

[waitingtoconnect]

The other possibility is Biden wins but the republicans win the house and senate. Agent orange then instructs them what to do and they do it negating good governance entirely.

Meanwhile Ai is being used to allow trump to mix with people of colour without them being forced to go near him. How thoughtful.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68440150

[LordMortis]

In the first image, I love how his skin tone is flawless in that image but the lady he has his hand around has his skin tone around her shoulder. At least they gave him baby hands.

I'm not a Democrat and I understand their shortcomings, especially regarding the border and identity politics, and now the disaster in Gaza. But the disconnect between perceived reality and actual reality is maddening. Republicans excel at instilling and exploiting grievances. Blocking progress is easier than making progress.

I could have said that.

[pr0ner]

Hard to know what thread to put this in, but SCOTUS rules 9-0 that states cannot bar Trump (or others) from their ballots based on the 14th Amendment.

[Dramatist]

Hard to know what thread to put this in, but SCOTUS rules 9-0 that states cannot bar Trump (or others) from their ballots based on the 14th Amendment.

States rights, but only when they’re convenient.


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