YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 5:54 pm
There are signs of hope. Trump's campaign is not financially sound, and his primary showing still highlighted major weaknesses.
All it would take is a relatively small number of Never Trumpers and Haley die-hards to stay home and the election's over for him. And I expect the Biden campaign will be going on the offensive big-time as we get closer to the election.
I've seen a number of political prognosticators still rather bullish on Biden and saying that the polling is wrong.
There isn't really much reason to think that the polling is wrong. Plus if it's wrong, there's at least as much reason to think that it's understating Trump's vote (since he beat polls in both 2016 and 2020).
It's still fairly early in the race, though. The more optimistic take is that Biden has been in the public eye and under attack for awhile now, while Trump has not been. And that direct exposure of Trump to the public tends to cause his support to go down.
Maybe. There's a reason that when 538 was good, it weighted polls because of their accuracy issues, and as polling has tried to move into the digital age, a lot of the ways aren't as good, and/or are easily gamed. An example:
Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and Hispanic adults
By Andrew Mercer, Courtney Kennedy and Scott Keeter
As polling takes center stage again this election year, understanding its strengths and weaknesses is critical. At Pew Research Center, we’ve looked hard at the advantages and limitations of our methods. We’ve also contributed to the survey profession’s understanding of data quality problems in polls that use online “opt-in” sampling – an approach where people are not selected randomly but are instead recruited from a variety of online sources like banner ads or social media.
In this analysis, we’ll show how some recent findings from an opt-in poll may have unintentionally misled the public about the sensitive issue of Holocaust denial among young Americans.
Opt-In polling is just one of the newer methods which can deliver poor results (alongside the old standbys such as polls setting up questions to elicit a *particular* response, by trying to induce bias via the wording or previous questions)
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 4:42 pm
I think politicians have started to realize over the past decade that giving the SOTU is a sucker's job. You just inevitably look small and petty following the guy giving a 60 - 90 minute speech before Congress, plus almost no one sticks around for the rebuttal after the speech. So I think the talent level of the rebuttal speeches has taken a major dive.
Maybe they should just run some Super Bowl tier political ads
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
Biden will travel to New Hampshire on Monday, Wisconsin on Wednesday and Michigan on Thursday, according to the campaign.
Ahead of that, he will visit Pennsylvania on Friday and Georgia on Saturday, directly following his State of the Union address, and more travel to battleground states will be announced throughout the month.
The campaign has deemed March the “I’m on Board” Month of Action, which includes the travel from Biden, Harris and key officials and surrogates, as well efforts to expand volunteer engagement and scale up battleground staff.
The campaign will launch a $30 million six-week advertising spend, which is more spending in six weeks than it did in all of 2023 after the president announced his reelection bid in April.
He has a lot of work to do in MI. While the UAW leadership is four-square behind him, the rank and file are chafing at his emphasis on EVs, which require a lot less labor than ICEs and are mostly (Tesla) built by nonunion shops and suppliers. And the large Arab population is not happy about our supplying the weapons for what they see as the genocide in Gaza. The state would go to trump if the election were tomorrow.
Kraken wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 10:32 pm
He has a lot of work to do in MI. While the UAW leadership is four-square behind him, the rank and file are chafing at his emphasis on EVs, which require a lot less labor than ICEs and are mostly (Tesla) built by nonunion shops and suppliers. And the large Arab population is not happy about our supplying the weapons for what they see as the genocide in Gaza. The state would go to trump if the election were tomorrow.
I think like you do and hope we're both wrong. It's hard to see it in my small view of the world.
While I do have some concerns about his age, when I see people slam Biden for his performance I have to wonder what their agenda is. He's done a pretty good job, in spite of having a completely effed senate run by fringe elements.
hepcat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:54 pm
While I do have some concerns about his age, when I see people slam Biden for his performance I have to wonder what their agenda is. He's done a pretty good job, in spite of having a completely effed senate run by fringe elements.
I heard somewhere that he's a radical Marxist who hates America and wants to replace white people with Venezuelan gang members.
Voting for Trump because "He's a gangster..." "But Biden, no one's really scared of him." I guess do what you gotta do, but man your disconnect is worse than my father's.
The host puts it much better and quite frankly how I often feel, which is why I get the resentment and have felt it for a long time and would abandon the democratic party as soon as the choice gets reasonable. After that, they're busy shaping a narrative, which I have no use for.
They're a population of 2 million out of 333 million ready to throw the other 331 million under the bus for a ceasefire for a conflict we didn't start happening halfway around the globe. And the end result is that they still won't get what they want, and will likely just make it worse for themselves and everyone else. It's maddening.
A classic case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.
"I don't want Paul von Hindenburg to win because he's not doing enough for me, so I'm going to help this Hitler fellow win! Sure, he hates my people and tried to drive us out of the country, but...."
Just a quick reminder on what Trump has said he'll do if he wins in 2024:
He said on Oct. 11 that a future Trump administration would “fully support Israel defeating, dismantling, and permanently destroying the terrorist group Hamas,” while telling the Republican Jewish Coalition later that month that Hamas fighters “will burn forever in the eternal pit of hell." That month, his campaign also said that, if elected again, he would bar Gaza residents from entering the U.S. as part of an expanded travel ban.
Trump praises an antisemitic and anti-LGBTC authoritarian for not having to put up with criticism.
Just because it’s old news that the GOP candidate for POTUS constantly praises autocrats doesn’t mean it doesn’t deserve wall-to-wall coverage when he does it. Because it’s insane.
Trump has become the epitome of the “banality of crazy”.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
Not sure if it was mentioned, but not only did he invite him to Mar-A-Lago (with him pretending to still be POTUS, with US flags, etc, as if it were a heads of state meeting) they also went to some concert/performance together. ?!
Scarlett Johansson plays Sen. Katie Britt in a satire of her SOTU rebuttal on ‘SNL’
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
When in doubt, skewer it out...I don't know.
The woman whose story Alabama Sen. Katie Britt appeared to have shared in the Republican response to the State of the Union as an example of President Joe Biden’s failed immigration policies told CNN she was trafficked before Biden’s presidency and said legislators lack empathy when using the issue of human trafficking for political purposes.
“I hardly ever cooperate with politicians, because it seems to me that they only want an image. They only want a photo — and that to me is not fair,” Karla Jacinto told CNN on Sunday.
CNN’s Freedom Project, which seeks to raise awareness about modern-day slavery, previously profiled Jacinto’s story.
Jacinto told CNN that Mexican politicians took advantage of her by using her story for political purposes and that it’s happened again in the United States.
...
Jacinto said she met the senator at an event at the southern border with other government officials and anti-human-trafficking activists, instead of one-on-one as Britt stated. She also said that she was never trafficked in the United States, as Britt appeared to suggest.
...
In a prior statement to CNN, a spokesperson for Britt’s office neither confirmed nor denied Britt was sharing Jacinto’s account, but said the story the senator told “was 100% correct.”
Voters have repeatedly given Biden the thumbs down on his handling of the economy. An NBC News poll last month found voters trust Trump more on economic matters by 20 points.
Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2024 2:25 pm
Not sure if it was mentioned, but not only did he invite him to Mar-A-Lago (with him pretending to still be POTUS, with US flags, etc, as if it were a heads of state meeting) they also went to some concert/performance together. ?!
I hear Wagner is good for aspiring dictators for a day. Gives you inspiration for sending your weaponised IRS after celebrities like Taylor Swift who don’t endorse you when you get reelected.
waitingtoconnect wrote:Voters have repeatedly given Biden the thumbs down on his handling of the economy. An NBC News poll last month found voters trust Trump more on economic matters by 20 points.
I think we need to change the slogan from "It's the economy, stupid" to "It's the stupids' economy." People can only understand what's right in front of their face. There is no big picture, there is no long-term. Gas price went up BAD! Grocery price BAD! Oooh $250 tax credit GOOD!
I'm so tired of having my life dictated by morons.
Voters have repeatedly given Biden the thumbs down on his handling of the economy. An NBC News poll last month found voters trust Trump more on economic matters by 20 points.
Why are people so stupid…
It's what they want to believe combined with finding sources that tell them what to believe in a re-enforcement loop. Biden needs to leave us room to pull ourselves up by our bootstraps, needs to leave the wealthy and hard earned wealth alone, bring taxes down, reverse inflation, increase wages, keep civil services, cut spending, and improve the conditions of "the middle class" working man while keeping the America and its interests safe and FREEDOM, and he's failed on all accounts. You'd think he was woman minority trying running for office...
To be fair, the final few lines in that transcript don't paint a pretty picture if he's not sure when Trump took office after the 2016 election. At one point he asks if Trump was elected in November of 2017. Granted, he goes on to say that's what someone wrote down for him. But you'd think he'd note that was wrong himself.
I'm terrible with dates of personal events so that doesn't stand out to me.
But we should just make both candidates take an SAT test. Or at least a high school enrollment test. Just to see what we're working with.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:22 pm
I'm terrible with dates of personal events so that doesn't stand out to me.
But we should just make both candidates take an SAT test. Or at least a high school enrollment test. Just to see what we're working with.
Sounds good to me. Let's split the difference and make it the ACT and it should be published for all to see and it should be taken in and scored in a public setting.
I'm absolutely terrible with time. Like TERRIBLE. If someone asked me when any event took place more than a couple of years ago, I'd have to put significant thought into it, extrapolating from giant milestones. And forget narrowing it down to a month, much less a day.
Hell, I've been married 22 years and I still have to stop to think about what actual year it was. I couldn't tell you the year or month my grandparents died. Or when my brother got married. I have to stop and think sometimes and count backwards to figure out what year my kids were born.
I'm not using that as an excuse for Biden (I mean hell, he IS old), but some people don't have a knack for dates. I've always thought that if I were charged with murder and the prosecution asked me where I was on the night of <insert date 6 months ago> I'd be absolutely fucked. I couldn't honestly tell you where I was on a particular night one month ago. Heck, I'd have to put some serious thought into 2 weeks ago.
