I think that there's some wishful thinking in Berger's article. Costs are probably going to be better than SLS and Vega for bucks per pound to LEO, but the question becomes, will there be that much of
need for all that capacity? Consider how much of SpaceX's traffic is due to Starlink, without that the cost per flight would be higher because there are overhead costs whether you are flying that day or not. Starship is going to have significantly greater overhead costs even if you just consider the manpower needed to maintain a launch facility of that size, not to mention the engine refurb facilities, etc.
Does anyone doubt we'll see double-digit Starship launches in 2025 and many dozens per year during the second half of this decade?
Me for one. Falcon 9 is a pretty conventional rocket aside from the reusable first stage and look how many years it took to get the recovery of the first stage working right. For the Super Heavy Booster, it's going to be significantly trickier. As for Starship, a safe and recoverable landing is going to be even harder.
By the way, hadn't really thought about something till now, but for the first manned Starship flight, what is the abort scenario plan? The crew will be in the same vehicle as lots and lots of propellants. Hmm
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