Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[LordMortis]

Especially in purple states. My intuition is that RFKjr hurts TFG more but my political intuition has been pretty well wrong when it comes to how partying on the right behaves for getting on a decade now. I say right, not independents, because independents considering being pulled from TFG were IINOs. I will say my ear to "I don't support him but I might have to vote for him" has made no mention of RFKjr. Of course, there is little doubt in my mind any more that they support him but they're still embarrassed or in denial about who they really are.

[Holman]

The problem is that third-party candidates appeal to purity voters who don't understand how elections actually work.

"If I vote for the Green Party candidate, surely the election will produce a Greener result!"

[Grifman]

Gaza could cost Biden Michigan - and the election:

[LordMortis]

It is known. It's been a thing here since November, I think. Biden ads are strong here, specifically ads toward young women centered around RvW. I think that's a wise move and should stay a focus but Gaza is going to hurt him, badly. If this were any other time before 2016, I would say "and it should" but I just can't abide the frogs carrying scorpions on their backs or leopards eating faces, even if I can't tell Palestinian and neighboring area descendants, you need to take one for the team.

[Alefroth]

Yeah, it really could be worse. At a minimum it will be the same.

[GreenGoo]

At least Netanyahu will have to bribe drumpf directly before weapons will ship. Bibi knows how to play ball, unlike that commie liberal Zelenskyy.

That said, if you're a single issue voter, you're a single issue voter. Reap what you sow and no complaining afterward.

[Zarathud]

Netanyahu will have to do nothing to get Trump to authorize atrocities during a second term. Jared Kushner chose to recognize Jerusalem as their capital, a major concession, without asking for anything or giving anything to Palestinians. Trump doesn’t change.

[Grifman]

Biden is facing a lot of headwinds:

[Kraken]

He's also losing support among young voters. They aren't flocking to trump so much as they're planning to sit this one out.

However, I take some solace in Heather Cox Richardson's convincing portrayal of trump as a wounded animal who is also hemorrhaging support beyond his MAGA base. It's going to come down to whether the Dems can rally enough of Biden's shrinking base to overcome the fiercely loyal MAGAts.

[Blackhawk]

What, exactly, makes Muslim voters think Trump would do more than Biden?

[waitingtoconnect]

It happened in the UK: people voted for policies against their best interest because the equivalent of the Democrats were “imperfect”.

It happened in Michigan- many muslims I know voted angaisnt Hilary because of how she helped Israel… and look what the trump did for them.

And also the Make Great Britain great again set like trump would use the strategy of everyone’s favourite corporal.

“It makes no difference whatever whether they laugh at us or revile us … whether they represent us as clowns or criminals; the main thing is that they mention us, that they concern themselves with us again and again …”

Trump gets so much coverage then Biden because of this.

[LordMortis]

What, exactly, makes Muslim voters think Trump would do more than Biden?

They don't, AFAICT. What they think is Biden is acting as an enabler and is actively supplying war materials for atrocities in Palestine, so there is no reason to support him. That pleas "to save the children" are falling on deaf ears. That people dying are people they know, people they are related to. This is what you hear at rallies in the area. If I were interested in preserving such things, I could post letters from Tlaib. She is my Congress Person and she is quite active in messaging her electorate. However, I don't, so... Beyond that interview instances tend to push a story from the interviewer. I don't push much stock in them. Rallies tend to push the groupthink of a community of people. I put much more stock in them.

[Grifman]

I don’t usually find anything Trump says as funny, but the one got me:



I can’t believe that people like Barr, Cruz, and Rubio have so little pride that they continue to be Trump’s doormats and ass lickers.

[Unagi]

It's seriously fucking weird.

These are real adults with real careers and they hitch themselves to this creature.

[El Guapo]

It's seriously fucking weird.

These are real adults with real careers and they hitch themselves to this creature.

This is the perfect encapsulation of this.

[GreenGoo]

Netanyahu will have to do nothing to get Trump to authorize atrocities during a second term.

It's continued US aid I was referring to here. If Bibi wants more guns, he needs to grease the wheels a bit, if you know what I mean? *exaggerated wise guy wink*

My reference to Zelenskyy was a context clue, seeing as Drumpf has already solicited bribes for aid with Ukraine. Extortion. Whatever.

[Blackhawk]

What, exactly, makes Muslim voters think Trump would do more than Biden?

They don't, AFAICT. What they think is Biden is acting as an enabler and is actively supplying war materials for atrocities in Palestine, so there is no reason to support him. That pleas "to save the children" are falling on deaf ears. That people dying are people they know, people they are related to. This is what you hear at rallies in the area. If I were interested in preserving such things, I could post letters from Tlaib. She is my Congress Person and she is quite active in messaging her electorate. However, I don't, so... Beyond that interview instances tend to push a story from the interviewer. I don't push much stock in them. Rallies tend to push the groupthink of a community of people. I put much more stock in them.

That I knew. What baffles me is why any of them think Trump would do more for them. He's unpredictable, easily manipulated, and nobody has any idea what he'd do about Gaza, as he's constantly waffled on that particular question, alternating between shouting his support and insulting Netanyahu. The closest I think he's come to a position is to criticize their 'PR' for not doing a better job of keeping it all under wraps. He's likely got less leverage than Biden, and he's as likely to increase support as he is to pull it. It all depends on which path he thinks makes him look better.

[Victoria Raverna]

They don't think Trump is better. For them Biden is so bad that Trump can't do much worse. And they think they need to make sure that Biden is punished for his part in the killing of Palestinian children. They just don't care anymore if Trump is worse since they think that it can't be much worse than Biden's action or inaction.

[LordMortis]

Saw some huge Kennedy for Independence flags that were more like king size sheets (though professionally fabricated) draped across a privacy fence line today. Given that I live in a area with lots of generational ties to the middle east on all sides, I wonder if it's related. I'm connecting dots that I don't actually see, though. I was surprised. It was a huge advertisement and now I'm curious who would advertise the loudly for him, let alone plan to vote for him.

[waitingtoconnect]

He's also losing support among young voters. They aren't flocking to trump so much as they're planning to sit this one out.

However, I take some solace in Heather Cox Richardson's convincing portrayal of trump as a wounded animal who is also hemorrhaging support beyond his MAGA base. It's going to come down to whether the Dems can rally enough of Biden's shrinking base to overcome the fiercely loyal MAGAts.

My nieces and nephews are planning to vote trump because they don’t like what Biden is doing in Gaza… because trump said he would fix it

My own kids are sick of politics and won’t vote for either because of Gaza.

Which is why I said after October 7 Biden was toast.

And after what I saw in the Supreme Court today well even if somehow Biden wins the electoral college I can see a contingent election coming in the house.

As for hispanics - if they don’t see that trump wants to restart the Mexican expulsions of the early to mid 20th century where 3 million hispanics were deported even if they were American… well good luck to them.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Repatriation and Operation Wetback…

Right now it’s all looking increasingly like this

[Pyperkub]

They don't think Trump is better. For them Biden is so bad that Trump can't do much worse. And they think they need to make sure that Biden is punished for his part in the killing of Palestinian children. They just don't care anymore if Trump is worse since they think that it can't be much worse than Biden's action or inaction.

Yeah, this is what I believe they think tho Trump would be absolutely horrific for Gaza. I don't think he even thinks Palestinians are people, and more just a shithole group( per his africa comments) . No power, no money, they do nothing for him, and thus mean nothing to him. He has already said for Isreal to just get it over with (which at this point is to just murder whoever they want to).

[Smoove_B]

Capitalism - every time:

New from WaPo: Trump told oil executives to give his presidential campaign $1 billion. He vowed in return to lower regulations and taxes on big oil.

Expect more "deals" like this.

Many CEOs are frustrated by Biden's regulatory and anti-trust push. They're willing to turn back to Trump

[Alefroth]

I really can't understand how that wouldn't be campaign-ending.

[Blackhawk]

Want to understand why it isn't campaign-ending? Put down the books on politics and pick up a book on cults.

/edit - and that wasn't meant as snark or tongue-in-cheek. Trumpism comes very close to checking all of the boxes.

[hepcat]

I really can't understand how that wouldn't be campaign-ending.

To be honest, I suspect the same types of promises occur with every politician during every campaign.

[LawBeefaroni]

I really can't understand how that wouldn't be campaign-ending.

To be honest, I suspect the same types of promises occur with every politician during every campaign.

Every politician makes public promises on the campaign trail, not quid pro quo deals at dinner at their own private club.

$1B? That's unheard of.

[Zarathud]

Not surprisingly, Trump wants a bribe. You know he attacks his enemies. Ask Stormy.

It’s too bad Blogoyovich won his appeal. It’s the same as “having this thing and it’s f**ing golden.”

[stessier]

It's so easy to do it right too.

"We estimate it's going to take $1 billion to get me elected. I hope you gathered here today will help me reach that goal. Let me tell you about my platform - I intend to roll back yada yada yada.

Do donate and let's lock up Biden!"

[Zarathud]

That’s what drives me nuts. Not only is it hypocritical and base, they’re so stupid.

Politicians are corrupt and lie, so let’s get someone who will lie to our face about business then excuse their behavior as “locker room talk.” I’ve been to those locker rooms in HS PE and they were filled with assholes.

[Grifman]

I really can't understand how that wouldn't be campaign-ending.

Says anyone for about the thousandth time. Seriously, there is absolutely nothing Trump could do at this point that would turn his base against him. Just go down the list - stealing classified documents, being found legally liable for sexually assaulting a woman, killing hundreds of thousands of people during a pandemic by trying to minimize it’s impact, inciting an insurrection on Jan 6, the list goes on and on. Cult members don’t care because the leader is infallible - hence he can do no wrong, all actions are justifiable. I gave up a long time ago believing there was anything he could do that would turn off his followers.

[GreenGoo]

The real problem is that drumpfers simply don't believe the facts. That's it. They will refute any fact if it puts drumpf in a poor light.

Tell a drumpfer that Biden did x, hear the response (as bad as hitler and satan combined etc), then apologize and say it wasn't Biden, my mistake, it was drumpf. The drumpfer has 2 choices: downplay the seriousness of x immediately after declaring x the worst thing in the world, or declare x didn't happen.

And drumpfers aren't alone in this and most people will react similarly, if not quite so extremely, if presented with the above scenario about their candidate.

The cognitive dissonance is awe inspiring. And terrifying.

edit: basically agreeing with grif here.

[Blackhawk]

Or (and I've seen that video, too), completely pretend that the first half of the discussion didn't happen, and declare that x was necessary and amazing, and saved the world.

[waitingtoconnect]

The real problem is that drumpfers simply don't believe the facts. That's it. They will refute any fact if it puts drumpf in a poor light.

Tell a drumpfer that Biden did x, hear the response (as bad as hitler and satan combined etc), then apologize and say it wasn't Biden, my mistake, it was drumpf. The drumpfer has 2 choices: downplay the seriousness of x immediately after declaring x the worst thing in the world, or declare x didn't happen.

And drumpfers aren't alone in this and most people will react similarly, if not quite so extremely, if presented with the above scenario about their candidate.

The cognitive dissonance is awe inspiring. And terrifying.

edit: basically agreeing with grif here.

It’s down to the reality tv politics and reality tv news that’s crept into our lives. And it’s infected enough of the population they could decide who wins the election.

How often do we have a sane commmentator with a left wing and right nut for “balance” on our news.

Now it’s about winning or surviving till next round. So people want to attach themselves to the winner even though in the end there can be only one… trump himself and he’ll burn them all to the ground.

[Grifman]

This would be the absolute best move by Trump. Haley has been getting 20% of the vote even after dropping out. Even though she has said he’s not fit to be president, like almost every other Republican, no doubt she would bend the knee and swallow her pride if offered the positon.

[Alefroth]

I think the votes she's pulling are from people that don't like Trump, not people that like her. I'm not sure having her as VP would help that much.

[Smoove_B]

Even though she has said he’s not fit to be president, like almost every other Republican, no doubt she would bend the knee and swallow her pride if offered the positon.

Absolutely. It totally fits so I'd expect it.

"He's the worst thing that's ever happened to the Republican party and arguably American Democracy, but I accept his offer to serve as Vice President."

[Freyland]

There is also the practical thought that if he gets elected and keels over during his term, she gets to be president. It's a real possibility.

[Jaymann]

There is also the practical thought that if he gets elected and keels over during his term, she gets to be president. It's a real possibility.

As disgusting as Haley's Vomit is, should the Orange Turd be elected, your scenario may be the only hope for continued democracy. I can't see Haley staging a successful coup to remain in office.

[Dogstar]

Trump spurns report of Nikki Haley for VP.

Donald Trump on Saturday shot down a report that Nikki Haley, his bitter presidential primary rival, has vaulted into “active consideration” to become his running mate.

“Nikki Haley is not under consideration for the V.P. slot, but I wish her well!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, signing the post “DJT.”

Earlier, Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt scoffed at Haley’s rumored rise.

[Kraken]

There is also the practical thought that if he gets elected and keels over during his term, she gets to be president. It's a real possibility.

Even likely, I daresay. He's already visibly suffering dementia. I don't like Nikki and would hate to see her become the first female POTUS, but she wouldn't be a disaster. Trump shot the idea down, but his mind frequently changes on a dime (see: dementia). Still, I do think he'll choose someone much worse than Haley.