NY vs. Trump - Hush Money Trial

[Unagi]

I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

I sincerely hope they don't too, but man - if they did - I would like to think the general public would be outraged at them being exposed.

[LawBeefaroni]

I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

I sincerely hope they don't too, but man - if they did - I would like to think the general public would be outraged at them being exposed.

Half of the general public.

[hepcat]

Still, I think it's more likely that he gets probation and I think community service is a real possibility.

Oh dear god, please don't let it be another season of The Apprentice.

[El Guapo]

I'm no expert on criminal sentencing, but I would think that there's a decent chance of jail time. Judge Merchan has to know that any sentence that has zero jail time will be publicly flaunted by Trump as vindication and laughed at nationally, right? And probation or community service would seem especially ridiculous. My guess would be something like 6 months jail time plus some sort of financial penalty.

When do we find out? Next week?

[Isgrimnur]

Trump’s sentencing date for July 11

[Zarathud]

This is where Trumps contempt of court makes a lighter sentence difficult. No remorse, no acceptance of the process, a history of fraud, and a likelihood of reoffending. It might not be long, but if Martha Stewart can do jail time then Donald Trump can too.

[Zaxxon]

This is where Trumps contempt of court makes a lighter sentence difficult. No remorse, no acceptance of the process, a history of fraud, and a likelihood of reoffending. It might not be long, but if Martha Stewart can do jail time then Donald Trump can too.

Yeah, I'm just a member of the public with no intimate knowledge of the justice system, but this case and this defendant seem designed specifically to end in jail time. In other words, I understand that first-time white-collar offenders routinely escape with no jail time. But this is a defendant that is clearly flaunting the system, showing negative remorse, attacking the system and those working to carry it out, etc. 34 counts, etc etc.

If this conviction ends in zero jail time, then jail time shouldn't even be among the allowable outcomes for a case like this (since clearly it's not meant to be used in any case).

[Unagi]

I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

I sincerely hope they don't too, but man - if they did - I would like to think the general public would be outraged at them being exposed.

Half of the general public.

Yeah. I was going to say ~65%

[Carpet_pissr]

We know this energizes him and his cultists, but my question is how will the shambling husk of what was the GOP respond? Will *this* be the moment they finally decide to try and shed their MAGA label and do what they can to salvage what's left of the party? Or do they double-down now for the final approach?

“GOP” LOL!

Who?

HOUSTON (AP) — The Republican National Committee voted Friday to install Donald Trump’s handpicked leadership team, completing his takeover of the national party as the former president closes in on a third straight presidential nomination.

Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican who has echoed Trump’s false theories of voter fraud, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote Friday morning in Houston. Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.

[GreenGoo]

This means he can’t vote, LOL!

Not allowed to cross the border into Canada.

[Kurth]

This is where Trumps contempt of court makes a lighter sentence difficult. No remorse, no acceptance of the process, a history of fraud, and a likelihood of reoffending. It might not be long, but if Martha Stewart can do jail time then Donald Trump can too.

Yeah, I'm just a member of the public with no intimate knowledge of the justice system, but this case and this defendant seem designed specifically to end in jail time. In other words, I understand that first-time white-collar offenders routinely escape with no jail time. But this is a defendant that is clearly flaunting the system, showing negative remorse, attacking the system and those working to carry it out, etc. 34 counts, etc etc.

If this conviction ends in zero jail time, then jail time shouldn't even be among the allowable outcomes for a case like this (since clearly it's not meant to be used in any case).

I think that’s way off. We’re all just spinning out predictions and reading tea leaves, but I think Merchan is going to do what he demonstrated throughout the trial: He’s going to try his best to treat Trump like he would any other defendant before him.

And when you look at the seriousness of the crime, the harm to the victim, the lack of a criminal record, the age of the defendant, I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance Trump gets jail time for this.

But that’s not to say that jail time shouldn’t be on the books for white collar crimes like this. Imagine if the falsification of business records was in service to a conspiracy that resulted in significant financial harm to a large number of people? What if this was something that led to the emptying of retirement accounts or the like? I can imagine a bunch of scenarios where harm to the victim combined with other factors (criminal record, etc) would make a jail sentence much more compelling.

Don’t get me wrong: I hope to hell I’m wrong.

I think we all know Trump deserves to be in jail. But does he really deserve to be in jail for this crime?

[Kurth]

I hope the jurors don’t get doxed.

I sincerely hope they don't too, but man - if they did - I would like to think the general public would be outraged at them being exposed.

I’ll be very interested to see if any of the jurors start doing interviews. I can only imagine the media feeding frenzy trying to get them to talk about their case and the deliberations. I hope they’re smart and say nothing.

[Blackhawk]

I think community service is a real possibility.

So...

Death sentence?

[ImLawBoy]

But that’s not to say that jail time shouldn’t be on the books for white collar crimes like this. Imagine if the falsification of business records was in service to a conspiracy that resulted in significant financial harm to a large number of people? What if this was something that led to the emptying of retirement accounts or the like? I can imagine a bunch of scenarios where harm to the victim combined with other factors (criminal record, etc) would make a jail sentence much more compelling.

This was more than just falsifying business records, though. It was falsifying business records as part of a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election. The election was close enough that it's not unreasonable to think that if the media were focusing on convicted felon Donald Trump's affair with a porn actress months after the birth of his latest child with anything close to the same zeal that they covered Hillary's e-mails, the end result might have been different.

To reiterate, I think it's unlikely that convicted felon Donald Trump faces jail time for his 34 felony convictions. I just don't think the possibility of jail time for convicted felon Donald Trump is as remote as some think it is.

[Zaxxon]

But that’s not to say that jail time shouldn’t be on the books for white collar crimes like this. Imagine if the falsification of business records was in service to a conspiracy that resulted in significant financial harm to a large number of people? What if this was something that led to the emptying of retirement accounts or the like? I can imagine a bunch of scenarios where harm to the victim combined with other factors (criminal record, etc) would make a jail sentence much more compelling.

This was more than just falsifying business records, though. It was falsifying business records as part of a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election. The election was close enough that it's not unreasonable to think that if the media were focusing on convicted felon Donald Trump's affair with a porn actress months after the birth of his latest child with anything close to the same zeal that they covered Hillary's e-mails, the end result might have been different.

Thank you for putting this better than I would have. The harm to 'a large number of people' in aggregate from this crime is far higher than virtually any other white-collar crime could be: it helped push a close election to Trump, which led to massive change on the Supreme Court, etc etc etc.

Obviously these harms are knock-on effects, but please don't minimize this crime. It may pale in comparison to the other crimes Trump's alleged of, but it's mighty serious.

[gilraen]

In other words, I understand that first-time white-collar offenders routinely escape with no jail time. But this is a defendant that is clearly flaunting the system, showing negative remorse, attacking the system and those working to carry it out, etc. 34 counts, etc etc.

Especially considering that Michael Cohen got jail time for his participation in the SAME scheme. The justice system as a general rule doesn't like jailing underlings and letting the boss walk free. So here's hoping.

[Isgrimnur]

How about we start with one day for the first count, then double it for each subsequent count?

[Zaxxon]

How about we start with one day for the first count, then double it for each subsequent count?

That seems harsh. Let's go with one hour for the first.

[Isgrimnur]

I'm down with it.

[The Meal]

numDaysBetweenJuly11andElectionDay + 1

[Isgrimnur]

numDaysBetweenJuly11andElectionDay + 1

numDaysBetweenJuly11andInaugurationDay + 1

[Zaxxon]

I still think we're being harsh. Let's just go with one second for the first crime and double from there.

[Isgrimnur]

I still think we're being harsh. Let's just go with one second for the first crime and double from there.

Also acceptable.

[The Meal]

numDaysBetweenJuly11andElectionDay + 1

numDaysBetweenJuly11andInaugurationDay + 1

I was just shooting for the symbolic optics of not letting him vote. I’d be fine if his ability to make the news was permanently disrupted.

[Zaxxon]

numDaysBetweenJuly11andElectionDay + 1

numDaysBetweenJuly11andInaugurationDay + 1

I was just shooting for the symbolic optics of not letting him vote. I’d be fine if his ability to make the news was permanently disrupted.

I think the whole 'he can't vote' thing is incorrect based on what I've read today.

[Smoove_B]

So much can happen between now and 7/11. So much.

[LawBeefaroni]

Trump’s sentencing date for July 11

Thursday, July 11: Trump Sentencing.
Monday, Jul 15 – Thursday, Jul 18: Republican National Convention.

He'll get a day in jail and storm onto the stage at the RNC in an orange jumpsuit with 47 on the back and Alice Cooper's No More Mr. Nice Guy blasting.

Unfortunately, on TV, the color of the jumpsuit will make him appear to be naked.

[Kurth]

But that’s not to say that jail time shouldn’t be on the books for white collar crimes like this. Imagine if the falsification of business records was in service to a conspiracy that resulted in significant financial harm to a large number of people? What if this was something that led to the emptying of retirement accounts or the like? I can imagine a bunch of scenarios where harm to the victim combined with other factors (criminal record, etc) would make a jail sentence much more compelling.

This was more than just falsifying business records, though. It was falsifying business records as part of a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election. The election was close enough that it's not unreasonable to think that if the media were focusing on convicted felon Donald Trump's affair with a porn actress months after the birth of his latest child with anything close to the same zeal that they covered Hillary's e-mails, the end result might have been different.

Ok, and maybe I’m wrong here, but my understanding is that there is nothing illegal about paying hush money to Stormy Daniels to buy her silence about a sexual encounter. Like, that’s not a crime. And it’s not like there’s a statute prohibiting “illegally influencing the 2016 election.” I thought the underlying crime that raised the falsification of business documents to a felony was that the records were falsified to cover up an illegal campaign contribution from Michael Cohen.

In other words, Trump’s real crime here is being a cheap bastard. If he had just paid Stormy Daniels with his own money from the start, there wouldn’t have been any issue.

So, again, we can call it “illegally influencing the 2016 election,” but it’s really kind of a nothingburger.

I’m ok with that. I have no problem that the feds finally nailed Al Capone and put him away for tax evasion. I’d be overjoyed if Trump gets jail time for this. But I don’t think it’s going to happen.

[Isgrimnur]

So much can happen between now and 7/11. So much.

If there's ever a year to celebrate Free Slurpee Day, this should be it.

[ImLawBoy]

In other words, I understand that first-time white-collar offenders routinely escape with no jail time. But this is a defendant that is clearly flaunting the system, showing negative remorse, attacking the system and those working to carry it out, etc. 34 counts, etc etc.

Especially considering that Michael Cohen got jail time for his participation in the SAME scheme. The justice system as a general rule doesn't like jailing underlings and letting the boss walk free. So here's hoping.

Cohen's acts were a bit different, though, and he had the added issue being a lawyer while committing his crimes. We're part of bar, so we're supposed to be better than that.

Ok, and maybe I’m wrong here, but my understanding is that there is nothing illegal about paying hush money to Stormy Daniels to buy her silence about a sexual encounter. Like, that’s not a crime. And it’s not like there’s a statute prohibiting “illegally influencing the 2016 election.” I thought the underlying crime that raised the falsification of business documents to a felony was that the records were falsified to cover up an illegal campaign contribution from Michael Cohen.

In other words, Trump’s real crime here is being a cheap bastard. If he had just paid Stormy Daniels with his own money from the start, there wouldn’t have been any issue.

So, again, we can call it “illegally influencing the 2016 election,” but it’s really kind of a nothingburger.

I’m ok with that. I have no problem that the feds finally nailed Al Capone and put him away for tax evasion. I’d be overjoyed if Trump gets jail time for this. But I don’t think it’s going to happen.

I do think you're wrong here, but I don't have detailed rebuttal info at my fingertips and don't have the time to get it right now. I'll try to find time to look into more, though. In short, I believe federal election laws do make this type of payment illegal. It's essentially an unreported campaign contribution since its intent was to influence the election.

[edit]In fact, I think one of the defense's arguments was that it wasn't intended to help his campaign, but rather to protect his family.[/edit]

[ImLawBoy]

Found some relevant info here:

Why were the charges a felony?

Under New York law, falsification of business records is a crime when the records are altered with an intent to defraud. To be charged as a felony, prosecutors must also show that the offender intended to "commit another crime" or "aid or conceal" another crime when falsifying records.

In Trump's case, prosecutors said that other crime was a violation of a New York election law that makes it illegal for "any two or more persons" to "conspire to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means," as Justice Juan Merchan explained in his instructions to the jury.

[Pyperkub]

In other words, Trump committed hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of Business Fraud to cover up a crime and cheat uncle sam.

[ImLawBoy]

Probably splitting hairs here, but he was covering up the affair, which wasn't a crime. The element that launched this falsification of business records into felony territory was that it was an illegal, undisclosed campaign contribution, which violates the NY law against conspiring to promote someone for office using illegal means.

[hepcat]

Trump’s sentencing date for July 11

Thursday, July 11: Trump Sentencing.
Monday, Jul 15 – Thursday, Jul 18: Republican National Convention.

He'll get a day in jail and storm onto the stage at the RNC in an orange jumpsuit with 47 on the back and Alice Cooper's No More Mr. Nice Guy blasting.

Unfortunately, on TV, the color of the jumpsuit will make him appear to be naked.

[Kurth]

Probably splitting hairs here, but he was covering up the affair, which wasn't a crime. The element that launched this falsification of business records into felony territory was that it was an illegal, undisclosed campaign contribution, which violates the NY law against conspiring to promote someone for office using illegal means.

That was the point I was trying to make above in the context of discussing the harm and who the victims of Trump’s crime were. My issue is, the underlying thing Trump did here - covering up the affair - wasn’t illegal. He had a right to cover up the affair. It only becomes illegal and runs afoul of campaign finance rules when he doesn’t disclose it. But had he just written Stormy a check from his own accounts, no issue.

Again, I hope he does time. But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant - you can argue that’s impossible and shouldn’t be our aim - then jail time for this low level offense (a misdemeanor that rises to a felony because of a technical violation of campaign finance disclosure rules) seems inappropriate.

[YellowKing]

But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant

A normal defendant like Michael Cohen, who just served time for the same crime?

[Zarathud]

If Michael Cohen did 3 years, how about 1-2 years? That still leaves him the GLOAT.

[ImLawBoy]

Probably splitting hairs here, but he was covering up the affair, which wasn't a crime. The element that launched this falsification of business records into felony territory was that it was an illegal, undisclosed campaign contribution, which violates the NY law against conspiring to promote someone for office using illegal means.

That was the point I was trying to make above in the context of discussing the harm and who the victims of Trump’s crime were. My issue is, the underlying thing Trump did here - covering up the affair - wasn’t illegal. He had a right to cover up the affair. It only becomes illegal and runs afoul of campaign finance rules when he doesn’t disclose it. But had he just written Stormy a check from his own accounts, no issue.

Again, I hope he does time. But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant - you can argue that’s impossible and shouldn’t be our aim - then jail time for this low level offense (a misdemeanor that rises to a felony because of a technical violation of campaign finance disclosure rules) seems inappropriate.

I think your issue is with the laws of the state of NY, then. Those are the laws on the books that he violated that carry a potential prison sentence. I'm not inclined to brush that off as a technicality, as it seems to be working as intended.

But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant

A normal defendant like Michael Cohen, who just served time for the same crime?

Not for the same crime, even though it arose from the same set of events. He plead guilty to (among other things) bank fraud, tax fraud, and lying to Congress. Plus as an "officer of the court" (aka, a practicing lawyer) his conduct was looked at more harshly.

[Brian]

If TF(convicted felon)G somehow gets re-elected, will they have to change the call sign of the jet to Con-Air One?

[Kurth]

Probably splitting hairs here, but he was covering up the affair, which wasn't a crime. The element that launched this falsification of business records into felony territory was that it was an illegal, undisclosed campaign contribution, which violates the NY law against conspiring to promote someone for office using illegal means.

That was the point I was trying to make above in the context of discussing the harm and who the victims of Trump’s crime were. My issue is, the underlying thing Trump did here - covering up the affair - wasn’t illegal. He had a right to cover up the affair. It only becomes illegal and runs afoul of campaign finance rules when he doesn’t disclose it. But had he just written Stormy a check from his own accounts, no issue.

Again, I hope he does time. But if we’re trying to treat Trump like a normal defendant - you can argue that’s impossible and shouldn’t be our aim - then jail time for this low level offense (a misdemeanor that rises to a felony because of a technical violation of campaign finance disclosure rules) seems inappropriate.

I think your issue is with the laws of the state of NY, then. Those are the laws on the books that he violated that carry a potential prison sentence. I'm not inclined to brush that off as a technicality, as it seems to be working as intended.

Not really. I don't have any problem with the law as I understand it. And the penalty - probation up to 4 years in prison - seems fine to me. It allows for a wide latitude to take into account important things like victim harm and prior criminal record and defendant health/age.

Also, again, this discussion was taking place in the context of victim harm. How would you measure the harm to the victims of Trump's crime? Who are those victims?

I think some would argue that all Americans are victims because we had a right to know that Trump was paying hush money to keep the Stormy Daniel's story quiet. But that doesn't really sit well with me because Trump was well within his rights to pay hush money to Daniels. It's only when we classify that hush money payment as a "campaign expense" that was funded by an undisclosed campaign contribution from Trump to his own campaign that we venture into any illegality. And that is really a technical campaign contribution disclosure issue considering that a candidate doesn't face any limits or caps on his or her own contributions to their campaign.