NY vs. Trump - Hush Money Trial

[Isgrimnur]

Should we think that this is the only time he’s laundered money through his organization? Only got caught the first and only time?

[YellowKing]

He plead guilty to (among other things) bank fraud, tax fraud, and lying to Congress.

One of the charges he pled guilty to was campaign finance violations related to the Stormy Daniels hush money payment. I'm not saying all three years served was for that, but it was absolutely part of the package of crimes that landed him in prison.

[Unagi]

I think community service is a real possibility.

So...

Death sentence?

[ImLawBoy]

It's only when we classify that hush money payment as a "campaign expense" that was funded by an undisclosed campaign contribution from Trump to his own campaign that we venture into any illegality. And that is really a technical campaign contribution disclosure issue considering that a candidate doesn't face any limits or caps on his or her own contributions to their campaign.

You say you don't have an issue with the law, but this is precisely what the law does. He's making illegal contributions to his campaign by funneling money from his business. You're right that he could have written a personal check and been done with it but he didn't. He went the illegal route instead.

[ImLawBoy]

He plead guilty to (among other things) bank fraud, tax fraud, and lying to Congress.

One of the charges he pled guilty to was campaign finance violations related to the Stormy Daniels hush money payment. I'm not saying all three years served was for that, but it was absolutely part of the package of crimes that landed him in prison.

Yeah but if he had only been charged with the campaign finance violation, would he have faced jail time? I'm just saying it's a false equivalence to say convicted felon Donald Trump should get jail time because Cohen got jail time in a very different case, albeit arising out of the same set of circumstances.

[Blackhawk]

If TF(convicted felon)G somehow gets re-elected, will they have to change the call sign of the jet to Con-Air One?

The Felon Guy.

[Holman]

Even if he gets prison time, it would almost certainly be the kind of relaxed, low-security facility that many other white-collar criminals enjoy. Given his secret Secret Service protection, I would imagine he would have his own wing and plenty of visitation rights. He's not going to Rikers.

But all the legal eagle types I follow on social media have pointed to signs that this judge would be very averse to actually incarcerating a former president. House arrest at Mar-a-Lago, possibly even with generous (though monitored) travel opportunities, seems more likely.

[Holman]

Should we think that this is the only time he’s laundered money through his organization? Only got caught the first and only time?

Well, his defense essentially claimed that the Trump organization was stuffed full of criminal liars in all major positions for decades, but Trump never knew about it.

[Isgrimnur]

Should we think that this is the only time he’s laundered money through his organization? Only got caught the first and only time?

Well, his defense essentially claimed that the Trump organization was stuffed full of criminal liars in all major positions for decades, but Trump never knew about it.

I believe the NCAA refers to that as "lack of institutional control" and holds people accountable for it.

[ImLawBoy]

Should we think that this is the only time he’s laundered money through his organization? Only got caught the first and only time?

Well, his defense essentially claimed that the Trump organization was stuffed full of criminal liars in all major positions for decades, but Trump never knew about it.

I believe the NCAA refers to that as "lack of institutional control" and holds people accountable for it.

The NCAA usually only goes after the little guys for any serious penalties.

[YellowKing]

Yeah but if he had only been charged with the campaign finance violation, would he have faced jail time?

Obviously we'll never know. But the original premise was that Trump needs to be treated like a "normal" person for sentencing, which somehow implied that normal people don't get jail time for campaign finance violations. When clearly they do.

I've already stated I think the chances of Trump actually getting jail time are approximately zero, but he also has a big mouth so if he keeps it up maybe the judge will throw it at him just to shut him up.

[waitingtoconnect]

Still can’t believe the frothing and the gnashing of teeth in the right wing media.

They truly seem to believe it’s Biden and the democrats who threaten democracy and are attempting a coup.

I heard commentators calling for Obama to be locked up for birth certificate forgery…

It’s like parents divorcing….

[Holman]

Still can’t believe the frothing and the gnashing of teeth in the right wing media.

They truly seem to believe it’s Biden and the democrats who threaten democracy and are attempting a coup.

I heard commentators calling for Obama to be locked up for birth certificate forgery…

It’s like parents divorcing….

Fox and its successors were literally born for this.

Roger Ailes was a Nixon aide who came out of the Watergate drama convinced that Right-wing politics needed its own media infrastructure to defend the corruption that was necessary for conservatives to take over government. By the end of the 20th century, he had the pieces in place. Everything since then has been the success of that scheme.

[ImLawBoy]

Yeah but if he had only been charged with the campaign finance violation, would he have faced jail time?

Obviously we'll never know. But the original premise was that Trump needs to be treated like a "normal" person for sentencing, which somehow implied that normal people don't get jail time for campaign finance violations. When clearly they do.

But the Cohen example does not show that "normal" people get jal time for campaign finance violations alone. It shows that someone who pleads guilty to a litany of various crimes that includes campaign finance violations can get jail time. It's not at all instructive as to whether someone who pleads guilty to only campaign finance violations will get jail time. The cases are too different in terms of crimes alleged and what they were guilty of.

I probably think it's more likely that convicted felon Donald Trump gets jail time than you do, but it's not at all related to Cohen's sentence.

[Kraken]

Even if he gets prison time, it would almost certainly be the kind of relaxed, low-security facility that many other white-collar criminals enjoy. Given his secret Secret Service protection, I would imagine he would have his own wing and plenty of visitation rights. He's not going to Rikers.

But all the legal eagle types I follow on social media have pointed to signs that this judge would be very averse to actually incarcerating a former president. House arrest at Mar-a-Lago, possibly even with generous (though monitored) travel opportunities, seems more likely.

If it restricts him from campaigning, that's a just punishment.

[YellowKing]

But the Cohen example does not show that "normal" people get jal time for campaign finance violations alone.

Then forget Cohen. There are plenty of other examples of people receiving jail time for campaign finance violations. I'm not going to waste time nitpicking when prison time is in the sentencing guidelines.

[Daehawk]

geez good thing he's got some money and the support of a lot of stupid people or he might go to real prison like the real people of this country would for the same offenses.

[Isgrimnur]

How many Crystal Mason 'illegal' voting convictions is 34 felony counts of willful fraud worth?

[ImLawBoy]

But the Cohen example does not show that "normal" people get jal time for campaign finance violations alone.

Then forget Cohen. There are plenty of other examples of people receiving jail time for campaign finance violations. I'm not going to waste time nitpicking when prison time is in the sentencing guidelines.

Then we agree! It's worthy of potential jail time without considering Cohen!

[Hyena]

Still can’t believe the frothing and the gnashing of teeth in the right wing media.

They truly seem to believe it’s Biden and the democrats who threaten democracy and are attempting a coup.

I heard commentators calling for Obama to be locked up for birth certificate forgery…

It’s like parents divorcing….

If one of the parents was an unhinged, narcissistic, power hungry megalomaniac and the other one was the long-suffering spouse that tolerated or even enabled the other's behavior.

[Blackhawk]

But the Cohen example does not show that "normal" people get jal time for campaign finance violations alone.

Then forget Cohen. There are plenty of other examples of people receiving jail time for campaign finance violations. I'm not going to waste time nitpicking when prison time is in the sentencing guidelines.

To be fair, there are plenty of elderly criminals that get lesser sentences, too. Putting someone who's close to 80 in prison isn't an attractive option, and that's working on his behalf. His behavior over the past few months is working against him.

Yeah, I really want Trump to get that - and more - but context matters in sentencing, and a bunch of things are taken into account when deciding each case. I want Trump to be made an example of, but at the same time, I want him to get the same sentence that any 77-year-old man with arguable dementia who committed a non-violent first offense consisting of the lowest tier of felonies, but pissed off the judge would get. More or less would be a failure of the system, despite how I may personally feel about it. If that hypothetical man would get probation and a fine, then Trump should get probation and a fine.

[Blackhawk]

Still can’t believe the frothing and the gnashing of teeth in the right wing media.

They truly seem to believe it’s Biden and the democrats who threaten democracy and are attempting a coup.

I heard commentators calling for Obama to be locked up for birth certificate forgery…

It’s like parents divorcing….

That's why I mentioned in the other thread that I think history will show that this verdict was the line drawn in the sand. Until now we've bickered and thrown things at each other, but most of the issues had nuance. This time is different. This is a yes/no question, and people are taking their side with zero flexibility. If you're a Republican, Trump's trial was 100% a failure of the system choreographed by Democrats, or else your political career ends today.

The tension of the past decade and a half is coming to a head, and this may be the musket ball in Concord.

[Daehawk]

Put him in prison until he dies.

[GreenGoo]

The tension of the past decade and a half is coming to a head, and this may be the musket ball in Concord.

So be it. Appeasement doesn't work. If a fight is inevitable, let's be ready for it when it starts.

[Kraken]

A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 10% of Republicans are less likely to vote for trump.

Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump following his felony conviction for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Friday.

The two-day poll, conducted in the hours after the Republican presidential candidate's conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, also found that 56% of Republican registered voters said the case would have no effect on their vote and 35% said they were more likely to support Trump, who has claimed the charges against him are politically motivated and has vowed to appeal.

The potential loss of a tenth of his party's voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans, since many of the latter would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction.

Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump's conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18% who said they were more likely and 56% who said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.

If true, you might say his campaign has been decimated.

[Jaymann]

A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 10% of Republicans are less likely to vote for trump.

Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump following his felony conviction for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Friday.

The two-day poll, conducted in the hours after the Republican presidential candidate's conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, also found that 56% of Republican registered voters said the case would have no effect on their vote and 35% said they were more likely to support Trump, who has claimed the charges against him are politically motivated and has vowed to appeal.

The potential loss of a tenth of his party's voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans, since many of the latter would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction.

Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump's conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18% who said they were more likely and 56% who said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.

If true, you might say his campaign has been decimated.

[Kurth]

It's only when we classify that hush money payment as a "campaign expense" that was funded by an undisclosed campaign contribution from Trump to his own campaign that we venture into any illegality. And that is really a technical campaign contribution disclosure issue considering that a candidate doesn't face any limits or caps on his or her own contributions to their campaign.

You say you don't have an issue with the law, but this is precisely what the law does. He's making illegal contributions to his campaign by funneling money from his business. You're right that he could have written a personal check and been done with it but he didn't. He went the illegal route instead.

I don’t know why we’re missing each other here: I say I don’t have issues with the law because I don’t. What Trump did is and should be a crime. Campaign finance disclosure laws are important, generally speaking, and so are laws against falsifications of business records. The statutory scheme seems to allow enough latitude to the sentencing judge to decide here between probation and up to 4 years in prison (assuming concurrent sentences on all counts).

No issue with the law. Objectively, I’d probably have an issue with the judge if he sentences Trump to jail time for this first offense. I’d be open to explanation and could be convinced, but my gut reaction would be that jail time here would be inappropriate.

But that wouldn’t mean I have an issue with the law. Only with its application in this case.

Also, thank you for cogently explaining why comparing Trump’s convictions and potential sentence to Cohen’s is an exercise in false equivalency. I’ve seen that posted all over the place again and again, and it’s just wrong.

[Blackhawk]

To sound like I'm contracting myself, it is his first offense, but it's also his first 34 offenses, and while they're low felonies, they're still felonies.

Prison seems unlikely, but it's not unreasonable.

[Pyperkub]

First felony. Not first fraud conviction. See his previous NY Judgement.

[Punisher]

Even if he gets prison time, it would almost certainly be the kind of relaxed, low-security facility that many other white-collar criminals enjoy. Given his secret Secret Service protection, I would imagine he would have his own wing and plenty of visitation rights. He's not going to Rikers.

But all the legal eagle types I follow on social media have pointed to signs that this judge would be very averse to actually incarcerating a former president. House arrest at Mar-a-Lago, possibly even with generous (though monitored) travel opportunities, seems more likely.

This might work better since I don't believe that Trump would care about the sentence and leave his home anyway perhaps resulting in an arrest.

[Daehawk]

To sound like I'm contracting myself, it is his first offense, but it's also his first 34 offenses, and while they're low felonies, they're still felonies.

Prison seems unlikely, but it's not unreasonable.

Oh its by far not his first offense but this is the first time he got caught on it.

[LordMortis]

Still can’t believe the frothing and the gnashing of teeth in the right wing media.

They truly seem to believe it’s Biden and the democrats who threaten democracy and are attempting a coup.

I heard commentators calling for Obama to be locked up for birth certificate forgery…

It’s like parents divorcing….

i believe it but it still hit me hard yesterday. I had to turn off the news early after only about 40 minutes in the background. it was horrible. business news was a nonstop barrage of attacks on biden and justification for right wing outrage. and then when i turned the tv back on it was a live TFG statement. After he refused to testify after he said he was going to testify. To give him that air on a business channel. At least I am giving the station less air now. I still need to find a better news source, as I am isolating myself more and more from current events and information on my investments for that matter.

[hepcat]

A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 10% of Republicans are less likely to vote for trump.

That just means Trump supporters will have to vote two or three times to offset that loss.

[Smoove_B]

This means he can’t vote, LOL!

Not allowed to cross the border into Canada.

Just to name a few:

Based on data from the World Population Review, here is a list of countries that do not allow convicted felons to enter:

Argentina
Australia
Canada
China
Cuba
India
Iran
Israel
Japan
Kenya
Macau
New Zealand
South Africa
Taiwan
United Kingdom
United States

And:

Additionally, there are further countries that Trump may now be denied entry to. Not all countries actively check from criminal records at the border, but they will deny entry if a convicted felon is discovered.

So yeah, makes total sense that he should be President, at the forefront of the party of law and order.

[Carpet_pissr]

I think it's interesting that it comes down to the way he paid, and that it could have potentially affected the election outcome, which we know is not true. Have we not ourselves here said many times that this asshole can do anything, even shooting people in broad daylight, and he would still be a front runner?

In normal circumstances, with a non-Trump defendant, I think the theory matches reality, but with Trump? No way. Would not have moved the needle.

[Zarathud]

Trump was worried enough about the payment to hide it, then deny it, and call the trial a fraud. Trump lives on creating deniability for his supporters to ignore.

[YellowKing]

I'm not entirely convinced it wouldn't have cost him the election. If I were a betting man I'd say it wouldn't have made a difference, but 2016 Trump was an entirely different beast than the Trump of today. He had not yet taken over the party, and there were still many people (myself included) that thought his antics could be reigned in by the GOP establishment.

I feel like Hillary lost due to James Comey's interference more than Trump won because he was teflon.

[Zarathud]

A Trump porn star scandal would have competed with Comey’s statement about Hillary’s emails.

[Zaxxon]

I'm not entirely convinced it wouldn't have cost him the election. If I were a betting man I'd say it wouldn't have made a difference, but 2016 Trump was an entirely different beast than the Trump of today. He had not yet taken over the party, and there were still many people (myself included) that thought his antics could be reigned in by the GOP establishment.

I feel like Hillary lost due to James Comey's interference more than Trump won because he was teflon.

This is what I was thinking. Trump in 2016 was much more vulnerable than Trump of today.

[Holman]

A Trump porn star scandal would have competed with Comey’s statement about Hillary’s emails.

The Access Hollywood tape dropped on October 7, 2016. Within hours there were major GOP figures (including House Speaker Paul Ryan) withdrawing their support for Trump, with some even calling for him to drop out and let Pence be the candidate. This was a campaign killer, and most of us Dems settled comfortably into a sense of inevitable victory.

But within days, Wikileaks (supplied by Russian intelligence hackers) dumped Hillary-aide John Podesta's hacked (and in some cases altered) emails, muddying the waters and producing headlines that led to Comey's re-opening of a closed investigation. The MSM jumped on these in a spirit of Bothsidesism, and thus Trump was saved.

Killing the Stormy Daniels story made sure the focus stayed on the email lady.