Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Unagi]

Maybe focus on all the people who *aren't* dying for once.

I do, I do - really. I am quite happy that people aren't dying from COVID-19, or at least we can dramatically reduce the risk of people from dying form COVID-19 relatively easily.

I'm just astounded (still, yes) that people largely believe it's over. I'm astounded that people in my profession are acting like it's over. With every passing day I understand more and more why Semmelweis had a nervous breakdown.

I think more than an "it's over" take, there is more of a general "what are ya gonna do?" take.

[Smoove_B]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... m-reality/

Hadn't seen that - thanks!

I think more than an "it's over" take, there is more of a general "what are ya gonna do?" take.

Yeah, that might be more accurate. It's not a problem for me (like gun violence in schools), so I'm not worried about it (until I have a kid in school or know someone that does).

[YellowKing]

And really, what *are* you gonna do if you don't have the support of the state or federal government.

[Unagi]

That's mostly where my head is at. I'm entirely on board any group effort, but I honestly don't see the great value in 'going it alone'.

If I worry about catching COVID at the theater, I'm just not going - being the only person wearing a mask at the theater seems like a joke (although I'm sure it adds at least a degree of help)

[LordMortis]

Movie theaters are out for now. My big risk is going to to be concerts or a bar. Especially as drinking and loud environments breeds sloppy spitty loud talk. I'm not quite there yet, but sooon... sooooon... And it's either going to be before school lets in or wait even longer. If this were forever ago the risk would be too high, but this has been a prison sentence and so soon after I put myself in the right circumstance to begin enjoying life again.

[YellowKing]

As an example of the current mindset, there is a FB group that comes across my feed every now and then that is designed to point out "local idiots." And a recent post someone had taken a picture of a man at the beach with a mask on. While some people defended the man as possibly immuno-compromised (he also appeared Asian so it could have been a cultural norm for him), the majority of comments were really hateful and mean-spirited.

It's gotten to the point now that even if wearing a mask was "the right thing to do," I'd be a bit concerned about getting attacked or screamed at by these nutjobs. Unfortunately "bully culture" has essentially won in this country, and the loudest assholes are the ones now dictating how the rest of us should live.

[LordMortis]

It's gotten to the point now that even if wearing a mask was "the right thing to do," I'd be a bit concerned about getting attacked or screamed at by these nutjobs. Unfortunately "bully culture" has essentially won in this country, and the loudest assholes are the ones now dictating how the rest of us should live.

There were rude comments to me bordering on threats and people who would loudly hold "private" conversations about mask hostility around me as far back as spring 2021 when mandates were up but businesses that professed to follow mandates and guides ignored their own policy. I don't hear them anymore but I also rarely mask, so if I did hear them it would be directed at the very few how mask today. Still masking in medical environments, I do often get staff informing me (as if to guilt me disguised as disclosure) that they are no longer necessary. It's more gaslighting than overt bullying.

[Isgrimnur]

It's gotten to the point now that even if wearing a mask was "the right thing to do," I'd be a bit concerned about getting attacked or screamed at by these nutjobs. Unfortunately "bully culture" has essentially won in this country, and the loudest assholes are the ones now dictating how the rest of us should live.

There were rude comments to me bordering on threats and people who would loudly hold "private" conversations about mask hostility around me as far back as spring 2021 when mandates were up but businesses that professed to follow mandates and guides ignored their own policy. I don't hear them anymore but I also rarely mask, so if I did hear them it would be directed at the very few how mask today. Still masking in medical environments, I do often get staff informing me (as if to guilt me disguised as disclosure) that they are no longer necessary. It's more gaslighting than overt bullying.

"Thank you. Wearing them with my tuberculosis has been a pain!"

[LordMortis]

I would keep quiet about having stayed at home from October to January until I could get my TB diagnosed at latent.

[Isgrimnur]

Then take a deep breath and 'hoo' it right over the reception desk.

[Kraken]

I had to shake my head and smile when I saw an older woman wearing a mask on her chin last week. I mean, masks are completely voluntary now, even frowned upon in some circles...so why would you choose to wear one ineffectively?

[LordMortis]

I had to shake my head and smile when I saw an older woman wearing a mask on her chin last week. I mean, masks are completely voluntary now, even frowned upon in some circles...so why would you choose to wear one ineffectively?

So you can raise it as you think necessary?

[Kraken]

I had to shake my head and smile when I saw an older woman wearing a mask on her chin last week. I mean, masks are completely voluntary now, even frowned upon in some circles...so why would you choose to wear one ineffectively?

So you can raise it as you think necessary?

Hadn't thought of that. I wondered if she had some unseen companion who insisted on masks.

[LordMortis]

I could see, for instance, someone walking around a store with a mask down but raising it either when in line or when talking to an clerk. That person disliking masks but feeling like there is protection when there is direct line of spittle or any sort of duration of unexpected close proximity.

[Blackhawk]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... m-reality/

Hadn't seen that - thanks!

I think more than an "it's over" take, there is more of a general "what are ya gonna do?" take.

Yeah, that might be more accurate. It's not a problem for me (like gun violence in schools), so I'm not worried about it (until I have a kid in school or know someone that does).

I interpret the 'what are ya gonna do?' more as exhaustion from years of trying to do the right thing in an environment where the right thing leads to abusive behavior or being ostracized, and where doing your part for the community is met by the community not doing theirs, nullifying your efforts. After a certain amount of time, people simply hit a wall where they don't have the oomph to keep going. When a struggle feels pointless, people burn out and stop struggling.

[Smoove_B]

When a struggle feels pointless, people burn out and stop struggling.

I wish I could stop; it would be so much easier. But I don't know how to shut off what I know (#4 leading cause of death, United States 2023) vs what is happening. I am absolutely burned out but apparently my well of connection is bottomless. I know I've joked about it before (and I don't want to minimize the struggles of John Rambo or his real life counterparts), but I now I think I totally get, "Nothing is over! Nothing! You just don't turn it off!" because that' exactly how I feel.

I've made two high-risk no mask appearances over the last month in large crowds for 2+ hours, indoors. Both had my insides in knots and I consider myself lucky that I didn't catch anything. Symptomatically, anyway.

[Victoria Raverna]

Do you want to paranoid for the rest of your life?

I guess people choose to ignore and pretend covid is over since it is going to be with us for a long time. It is not a good life to always have to fear covid.

[Blackhawk]

Do you want to paranoid for the rest of your life?

I guess people choose to ignore and pretend covid is over since it is going to be with us for a long time. It is not a good life to always have to fear covid.

It's a worse life to ignore COVID and become disabled (or dead) when you could have lived in good health. It's a worse life to watch family members become disabled or dead when they could have been saved.

Smoove's background may cause him difficulty with accepting how people have blown this off, but Smoove's background also means that he's got more expertise over any of the rest of us. He's a professional who knows his stuff, not paranoid. Frustrated, perhaps, maybe even a little idealistic about how people should be reacting (love ya, Smoove!), but not paranoid.

[Smoove_B]

No worries, but yes, that's pretty much it:

It's a worse life to ignore COVID and become disabled (or dead) when you could have lived in good health. It's a worse life to watch family members become disabled or dead when they could have been saved.

I get why my parents and MIL are out doing whatever and where ever. Above and beyond the additional vaccinations they have all taken, they're not concerned about what a COVID-19 infection might do to them as it relates to their health 10+ years from now.

I am quite concerned that an infection for me (or someone in my family) might change how the next 25 or 50 years looks.

[Unagi]

I wondered if she had some unseen companion who insisted on masks.

Yeah, situationally; her conscience.

[ImLawBoy]

I've made two high-risk no mask appearances over the last month in large crowds for 2+ hours, indoors. Both had my insides in knots and I consider myself lucky that I didn't catch anything. Symptomatically, anyway.

Wait. I'm a more hardcore masker than Smoove? You're slacking, dude.

[LawBeefaroni]

Had a meeting last night. 2 board members had to cancel due to having COVID. One said they were hit really hard.

Also, a state rep attending said they had COVID month ago and got it "at work."

Anectodal, but sure seems like it's ramping up again.

[Smoove_B]

Yes, it's definitely surging - still seems to be worst in the Western U.S, but there are pockets everywhere. It looks like the annual summer increase in cases hit a bit earlier this year.

I think it was right before the holiday last week, the CDC removed the "seasonal" descriptor for COVID-19 and instead now states:

There is no distinct COVID-19 season like there is for influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). While flu and RSV have a generally defined fall/winter seasonality and circulate at low levels in most parts of the United States in the summer, meaningful COVID-19 activity occurs at other times of the year.

Everything is fine because no one is dying. Well, except old people but they all agreed the economy was more important back in 2021, right? Besides, all the cool kids are now tracking the number of human H5N1 cases right now (we're up to 5).

[LordMortis]

Yes, it's definitely surging - still seems to be worst in the Western U.S, but there are pockets everywhere. It looks like the annual summer increase in cases hit a bit earlier this year.

I think it was right before the holiday last week, the CDC removed the "seasonal" descriptor for COVID-19 and instead now states:

There is no distinct COVID-19 season like there is for influenza (flu) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). While flu and RSV have a generally defined fall/winter seasonality and circulate at low levels in most parts of the United States in the summer, meaningful COVID-19 activity occurs at other times of the year.

Everything is fine because no one is dying. Well, except old people but they all agreed the economy was more important back in 2021, right? Besides, all the cool kids are now tracking the number of human H5N1 cases right now (we're up to 5).

It's been a hot summer early. I am sure the masses are huddling in cooled environments. Though it does go against my hope to that a new vaccine would be released in time for school spread. If it's spreading now, then blech. I almost went on Saturday for the first time. Now I'm going to be thinking about how the heat may be affecting spread before I think about it.

[Zaxxon]

Yes, it's definitely surging - still seems to be worst in the Western U.S, but there are pockets everywhere. It looks like the annual summer increase in cases hit a bit earlier this year.

Yep. https://cdphe.colorado.gov/covid-19/data

Wastewater trends remain very not good here, and the 'currently hospitalized' # has been trending up for 2 months straight now. I guess I should be happy that we even still have wastewater tracking here in CO?

When's that 2024 edition of the vaccine hitting? Sure would like to get that soonish.

[Smoove_B]

I'd seen some talk that (some? all?) of the vaccines would be available in mid-August (presumably to get ahead of the start of the 2024 school season), but I don't have any confirmation on that yet.

[hitbyambulance]

I'd seen some talk that (some? all?) of the vaccines would be available in mid-August (presumably to get ahead of the start of the 2024 school season), but I don't have any confirmation on that yet.

i'm getting on Novavax as soon as it shows up, i believe

[Smoove_B]

Wastewater trends remain very not good here, and the 'currently hospitalized' # has been trending up for 2 months straight now. I guess I should be happy that we even still have wastewater tracking here in CO?

Not to be a bummer (a phrase I use too often), but I did just see this about your state:

COVID-19 is no longer in the top 10 reasons why Coloradans die, according to the state’s annual death data, but the virus still casts a shadow over the numbers.

Long COVID is starting to be listed as a "significant contributing factor" in the deaths of some Coloradans, according to the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

Since January 2023, there have been 52 deaths among Colorado residents in which long COVID was recorded as playing a role.

“It doesn't surprise me. It's definitely something that we should pay attention to because long COVID exists,” said Dr. Dana Dabelea, an epidemiology professor at Colorado's School of Public Health, where she’s associate dean for research.

Last year, the state recorded 38 deaths in which long COVID was a significant contributing factor, with 14 in 2024 so far. It has not yet been recorded as the "underlying cause of death," according to the state health department.

I'm not aware of any local states that are tracking/reporting (publicly) Long Covid deaths, so this story is notable (to me).

[Unagi]

What are the acute symptoms of Long Covid that kill ya?

I thought LC was more of a brain/energy thing.

[Zaxxon]

This maybe makes me an ass, but 52 in 1.5 years in a state of nearly 6 million seems... not that consequential.

[Smoove_B]

This maybe makes me an ass, but 52 in 1.5 years in a state of nearly 6 million seems... not that consequential.

See, Noxiousdog lives on!

I get it, however prior to 2020 how many viral complications were being listed on death certificates? The point here is that they're starting and probably only represent a fraction of the contributing cases. Either because family doesn't want it on the certificate or a doctor doesn't put it or the were never diagnosed.

Is it killing more people than opioids? Probably not. But we're also not doing jack shit about opioid deaths so we're sure as fuck not going to do anything about post-Covid possibly associated but pretty low deaths either.

What are the acute symptoms of Long Covid that kill ya?

It's not just mental/brain/energy. Long Covid can impact:

COVID-19 can damage multiple organs throughout the body, including the brain, heart, lungs, liver, and kidneys, among others. When this happens, it can increase the risk of the development of new medical conditions, including:

Diabetes
Kidney disease
Heart conditions
Neurological conditions
Blood clots
Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), a condition in which the heart beats faster when standing up from a lying down position and can cause lightheadedness and fainting)

On top of the mental/brain/energy stuff.

[gilraen]

What are the acute symptoms of Long Covid that kill ya?

I thought LC was more of a brain/energy thing.

See, it's not necessarily "acute" that would be a problem. Maybe this doesn't classify under Long Covid, but, for instance, studies have conclusively shown that the virus can cause cardiovascular inflammation. So now you have a bunch of people in a few years having heart attacks and strokes at a younger age where they wouldn't have (either at that age or at all). But no one will ever be able to make, let alone prove, a connection.

[Unagi]

But when they can't even test for it, how are "they" leading to the conclusion that, for example, some neurological condition is linked to it.

[Unagi]

What are the acute symptoms of Long Covid that kill ya?

I thought LC was more of a brain/energy thing.

See, it's not necessarily "acute" that would be a problem. Maybe this doesn't classify under Long Covid, but, for instance, studies have conclusively shown that the virus can cause cardiovascular inflammation. So now you have a bunch of people in a few years having heart attacks and strokes at a younger age where they wouldn't have (either at that age or at all). But no one will ever be able to make, let alone prove, a connection.

Okay, right - but if they can't make the connection - I mean, how does science work here... what's the hypothesis that can be tested?

[Unagi]

The way I scare the young parents of the neighborhood is, I tell them:

"The people in the field believe that the real risk now is in multiple exposures/long covid concerns... where the person who gets it 8+ times over their life just kinda turns into a mouth-breather. So it's not our parents we need to worry about, it's our kids and our kid's kids."


It's how I do my part. I'll toss in cardiovascular inflemation now too.

[Smoove_B]

Okay, right - but if they can't make the connection - I mean, how does science work here... what's the hypothesis that can be tested?

We'd need to find populations of people without [condition] and compare them (using epidemiology) to similar populations that now have [condition] post-Covid.

So look at males at 20-29 and see if stroke risk has increased (in a mathematically significant way) following at least one Covid infection in comparison to another group of 20-29 year old males that didn't have Covid.

Ruling out confounding factors (like smoking/vape use, obesity, etc...) is going to be a nightmare.

What really needs to happen is for us to find forensic evidence in organs that they were absolutely damaged by SARS-CoV-2 - damage that ultimately lead to an acute or chronic condition that contributed to early mortality.

[Unagi]

Ruling out confounding factors (like smoking/vape use, obesity, etc...) is going to be a nightmare.

I would think confounding factors would entirely derail the science. I don't know how science overcomes that nightmare. Especially without a litmus for Long Covid.

[Smoove_B]

I would think confounding factors would entirely derail the science. I don't know how science overcomes that nightmare. Especially without a litmus for Long Covid.

The secret is that you need lots and lots and lots of people in the study - population level. Here, finding the control population (otherwise "healthy" 20-29 year olds) wouldn't be the issue. Instead, finding enough 20-29 year olds with a prior Covid infection that had a stroke that were also healthy would typically be the issue; studying rare diseases is really difficult using epi. However, because we're all soaking in SARS-CoV-2, in theory finding a large enough population of cases should be easier and accounting for cofounding factors can be done.

It's not easy and it would be cheap or quick, but it could be done.

[Kraken]

Ruling out confounding factors (like smoking/vape use, obesity, etc...) is going to be a nightmare.

I would think confounding factors would entirely derail the science. I don't know how science overcomes that nightmare. Especially without a litmus for Long Covid.

And asymptomatic infection makes your control group of of 20-29 year old males that didn't have Covid suspect as well.

[Smoove_B]

And asymptomatic infection makes your control group of of 20-29 year old males that didn't have Covid suspect as well.

We have piles and piles of data from prior to 2020 on population cohorts. I wouldn't touch any of the data after 1/1/2020 for this trying to find population-levels of people that haven't been infected yet.