Donald Trump whisked off stage in Pennsylvania after apparent gunshots rang through the crowd

[hepcat]

I don't see it as cynical, just realistic. Trumpism started before Trump. Look at the ideological deadlock that existed under Obama. Trump just arrived at the right time and with the right mindset to cultivate that growing division. Then he threw everything he had into making that divide a canyon. It doesn't take a particularly strong leader to do that. Just someone willing to do what's worst for the country so they can have power and be loved. There are numerous candidates for that in Washington...and the world.

[Unagi]

Serious question: can anyone name a cult, that isn't a religion, that ever survived the loss of its leader?

If Trump would have died yesterday...do you think the average MAGA supporter who is angry about the diversity in the country, who hates "libs", who thinks migrants are here to take their jobs and nab welfare benefits, and heck the 2025 movement proponents ...do you really think they are just going to stop? They will still be outraged next week, next month, etc. The movement will go on. Trump has been an extremely effective person at coalescing this angst, but it can be replicated. This is a long war of ideas.

No, I don't - but I don't expect them all to re-gel, behind one figure. That is the one point I'm saying.

[Unagi]

I don't see it as cynical, just realistic.

well... I mean. I'm just using a word. I don't think what you just said is really a counter to my statement.

[Unagi]

Trumpism started before Trump.

What label would we have given it back then? Racism? Bigotry? Something like that... ? (this isn't a challenge, I'm trying to connect here)

[Octavious]

Tea Party movement. He just scooped them.ip like the pied piper.

[hepcat]

I don't see it as cynical, just realistic.

well... I mean. I'm just using a word. I don't think what you just said is really a counter to my statement.

I feel like you used the wrong word. I countered with what I feel is the right word.

Trumpism started before Trump.

What label would we have given it back then? Racism? Bigotry? Something like that... ? (this isn't a challenge, I'm trying to connect here)

Octavius explained it better than I.

Tea Party movement. He just scooped them.ip like the pied piper.

[YellowKing]

You'd have to have someone that has such power over voters that even moderate Republicans get in line behind that leader for fear of their political future. Replacing the figurehead with someone who doesn't have that sway over voters simply doesn't work, no matter what policies they put forward.

[Unagi]

Octavius explained it better than I.

Tea Party movement. He just scooped them.ip like the pied piper.

Not sure if Octavious was trying to make one point or the other, but I believe his analogy plays more into my storyline.

In the story, the Pied Piper was a singular individual with the unique skill to gather all the kids. Not just anyone could do it.

[Newcastle]

That's why its vital that this MAGA movement is soundly defeated at the ballot box.

While I agree that the only meaningful end to the MAGA movement is by way of voting it into obscurity, you make it sound like a one-and-done (even if that's not your meaning, which I'm sure it isn't).
It will not be 'soundly' defeated in 2024. We will be lucky if we manage to simply defeat it.

I guess I'm just not as cynical as you and Hepcat on the 'Trump is replaceable' subject (but I can't really argue against severe cynicism, so I hear ya all). I think he is a unique (enough) situation that will not be repeated. I think Trump cast a spell on a group of people and that cocktail cannot be remixed by somoen else. I imagine every Republican is jealous of his historically unimaginable control on The Party and that, should Trump be removed, they would tear one another to pieces before they would (try to) anoint just one of themselves with that power (see: GOP Congress)

Youre right i dont think it [MAGAism] will be defeated in 2024, this movement didn't emerge over night and wont go away that quick. Trump is unique in that he is a 1 of a kind phenomenon right now...but you can bet there are so many political novices and experts studying him to try to emulate his shtick.I can only hope that 24 is a big time election for the center of the country. Much rather the moderates take back our country.

Serious question: can anyone name a cult, that isn't a religion, that ever survived the loss of its leader?

If Trump would have died yesterday...do you think the average MAGA supporter who is angry about the diversity in the country, who hates "libs", who thinks migrants are here to take their jobs and nab welfare benefits, and heck the 2025 movement proponents ...do you really think they are just going to stop? They will still be outraged next week, next month, etc. The movement will go on. Trump has been an extremely effective person at coalescing this angst, but it can be replicated. This is a long war of ideas.

No, I don't - but I don't expect them all to re-gel, behind one figure. That is the one point I'm saying.

Gotcha on that last point and I see where you are coming from. One or more will emerge at least in my mind. Maybe will be different, more eloquent, who knows. But Trump has done a damn good job at reorienting the GOP to his vision. Need the Cheney/Kitzinberg [sp.] wing of the GOP to snatch control back. The only way i see that happening is if the GOP lose big time this election, and i mean massive tidal wave wipe out. That would be a good start to reboot the GOP.

[Kraken]

That's why its vital that this MAGA movement is soundly defeated at the ballot box.

While I agree that the only meaningful end to the MAGA movement is by way of voting it into obscurity, you make it sound like a one-and-done (even if that's not your meaning, which I'm sure it isn't).
It will not be 'soundly' defeated in 2024. We will be lucky if we manage to simply defeat it.


I guess I'm just not as cynical as you and Hepcat on the 'Trump is replaceable' subject (but I can't really argue against severe cynicism, so I hear ya all). I think he is a unique (enough) situation that will not be repeated. I think Trump cast a spell on a group of people and that cocktail cannot be remixed by somoen else. I imagine every Republican is jealous of his historically unimaginable control on The Party and that, should Trump be removed, they would tear one another to pieces before they would (try to) anoint just one of themselves with that power (see: GOP Congress)

My gut says trumpism without trump will lead to the rapid downfall of the GOP as a national party. As the blooming reaction to Project 2025 shows, those positions are broadly unpopular and will sink any candidate who lacks trump's inexplicable charisma. (To me, he's the opposite of charismatic -- he's repulsive -- but a whole lotta people obviously feel otherwise.)

[Unagi]

I don't see it as cynical, just realistic.

well... I mean. I'm just using a word. I don't think what you just said is really a counter to my statement.

I feel like you used the wrong word. I countered with what I feel is the right word.

I'm not sure if you or anyone wants to go down this road, just academically speaking here...(I'm willing, but don't need/want to push it on anyone)

Putting the specific details aside:

You have two friends, you basically agree with both of them on the general idea of what the specific large group of people are and what 'led astray' means in this context...

One thinks that this specific large group of people could be 'led astray' by anyone.
One thinks that this specific large group of people could only be 'led astray' by one specific leader

Which one is ever so slightly more cynical than the other? I'd argue it has to be the 1st guy, as he thinks the group of people are more easily led astray.

Where in which I think we all take 'cynical' to mean: a general distrust of human integrity (that may be an important part to get clear here too).

[Holman]

One thing I wish people would keep in mind is that most assassins and would-be assassins are motivated by pure individual weirdness.

John Hinckley wanted Jody Foster to like him.
Squeaky Fromme did it for Charles Manson.
Sirhan Sirhan seems to have been unhinged as well.
Even Lee Harvey Oswald and James Earl Ray have elements of mental illness in their backgrounds.

In the American context, assassins are very rarely a clear expression of one political side or another.

[Kurth]

If trump had died someone else would have taken his place.

No. This is not true.

Name someone that could be Trump 2.0

Christ, name someone who COULDN'T at this point. His talking points are anger at Dems, stoking fear of immigrants, and a desire to divide America even further. That's literally 90 percent of the GOP. They've been rehearsing as stand-ins for the last 7 years. Trump may have started as an anomaly, but he's become the soul of the GOP since then.

I think you are completely missing that Trump has turned the GOP into a cult of personality, and that’s exactly what he wants to do to the entire federal government. That is what is so dangerous about him.

But the personality part of that is paramount: It’s why I’ve been repeating, over and over again, that Trump is a unique threat to our democracy. He is not replaceable. There are no stand-ins, at least, none that we’ve seen so far, that could take over Trump’s cult of personality and perpetuate it. None.

[Skinypupy]

One thing I wish people would keep in mind is that most assassins and would-be assassins are motivated by pure individual weirdness.

John Hinckley wanted Jody Foster to like him.
Squeaky Fromme did it for Charles Manson.
Sirhan Sirhan seems to have been unhinged as well.
Even Lee Harvey Oswald and James Earl Ray have elements of mental illness in their backgrounds.

In the American context, assassins are very rarely a clear expression of one political side or another.

True.

Which makes it all the more eyeroll-worthy when the white Republican man tries to kill the other white Republican man and they blame it on…women, DEI, and critical race theory (as Ron Johnson just did).

[Holman]

Reporters have spoken with some of the shooter's former classmates.

He seems to fit the "bullied loner with few friends" profile. He never expressed strong political views, and he was a gun enthusiast.

[Kurth]

Someone walk me through the thinking of ‘now we’re screwed’ because someone took a shot at Trump.

1. The majority of Americans do not follow politics, yes, even currently, sadly. This has been studied and backed by several different groups.

2. Team MAGA still gets one vote per person AFAIK. No provisions for bonus votes for attempted assassination of your candidate in the Constitution. They were going to vote for him yesterday and they will vote for him just as many times in November.

3. The Biden mess makes it a bit more complicated I guess, so let’s call it Team Blue.
Don’t see this event changing those votes either. ‘Before today, I was going to vote for Biden, but now I’m 100% team Trump’s Earlobe’ doesn’t make a lot of sense.

So I guess we’re talking about people who weren’t going to vote. What about this event would compel someone to now want to vote?

1. Yes. We cannot overestimate how low our low-information population of voters really are. Most of them are ignorant of even the most basic facts about the candidates’ policies and positions.

2. An attempted assassination drives the persecution narrative that many of the MAGA idiots embrace. They still only get one vote, but they’ll be even more motivated to show up at the polls by a Trump campaign whipping them into a frenzy with a constant warning that the Dems tried to take out Trump by prosecution and then by a bullet, and that their vote is absolutely necessary to stop this ANTIFA effort.

3. I think the notion that there are no persuadable votes out there and that every vote is already locked down as MAGA or Biden is counter factual. Again, our electorate is filled with ignorant people. They don’t see the starkness of the choice between Trump and Biden. A lot of voters are still grappling with the fact that these are two really old guys who they’re not psyched to be voting for. The narrative that Trump took a bullet in the ear (or teleprompter glass, whatever) and jumped up with a fist raised high and Biden can’t make it to a lectern without an illustrated photo guide is going to be a strong pull on them to vote Trump.

I don’t think there’s any way to look at this and not see it as a complete disaster for a Biden campaign that was already a disaster.

[Grifman]

Great article:

[Grifman]

It should be noted that PA is an open carry state. The shooter was entirely in his rights to be armed as he was as long as he was outside the venue.

[Smoove_B]

Reporters have spoken with some of the shooter's former classmates.

What is known so far, from NPR:

A search on Pennsylvania's public court records database indicated Crooks had no criminal history.

I'm guessing (based on what's been shared) this is going to be a rather unique situation.

[Unagi]

Great article:

That is a good article, thanks for sharing it.

That message is what I was trying to get at when I posted:

"Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don't know."
-Donald Trump lamenting there was no way to stop an elected HRC

[MHS]

Any chance that once Trump gets over his usual frontsman bravado that he realizes 3 inches difference and he'd be dead and decides to drop out? I doubt it, since he has that bullshit beleaguered-but-strongest-ever facade, but we all know he's a coward at heart so I'm hoping it's possible.

[WYBaugh]

Not with this rhetoric

[YellowKing]

I disagree that this is a slam-dunk win for Trump and virtually guarantees he gets elected. History has shown quite the opposite. The fact is, we don't know how this will impact an election that is still four months away, if at all.

If there's any result of this I might be willing to entertain, it might be increased Republican turnout. But even then, we're speculating on this impacting turnout four months away, when the public and news cycles have notoriously short memories.

[LordMortis]

Not with this rhetoric

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/marjori ... d=95065444

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said at a Republican event in New York over the weekend that if she had organized the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol "we would have won" and "it would've been armed," according to video from her appearance that was posted on social media.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... democracy/

Well, that and a repeated willingness to embrace Trump’s rhetoric, no matter how negative the place where Vance later ends up. As when he said during an interview Sunday that he would have done exactly what Trump wanted on Jan. 6, 2021, and blocked electors from states that voted for Joe Biden — triggering a dangerous challenge to American democracy.

[Smoove_B]

Any chance that once Trump gets over his usual frontsman bravado that he realizes 3 inches difference and he'd be dead and decides to drop out? I doubt it, since he has that bullshit beleaguered-but-strongest-ever facade, but we all know he's a coward at heart so I'm hoping it's possible.

He could also get a MRSA infection or become addicted to painkillers. So much can (and will) happen between now and November. The only thing I'm willing to bet is that he's going to raise a ton of money off what just happened. How it will actually impact the vote in 4 months? I don't think anyone knows.

[Skinypupy]

Feels like Biden is handling this well. Strongly denouncing and condemning the act, reaching out personally to check on Trump, calling for de-escalation. Those are all the messages that everyone needs to hear. Not surprising, really. All Biden's faults aside, there's never a doubt (except among the hardcore MAGA loons) that he's a good human being with empathy for others.

The contrast couldn't be more stark.

[hitbyambulance]

Any chance that once Trump gets over his usual frontsman bravado that he realizes 3 inches difference and he'd be dead and decides to drop out? I doubt it, since he has that bullshit beleaguered-but-strongest-ever facade, but we all know he's a coward at heart so I'm hoping it's possible.

who knows, but i am very interested in seeing how the PTSD might manifest

[Holman]

I disagree that this is a slam-dunk win for Trump and virtually guarantees he gets elected. History has shown quite the opposite. The fact is, we don't know how this will impact an election that is still four months away, if at all.

If there's any result of this I might be willing to entertain, it might be increased Republican turnout. But even then, we're speculating on this impacting turnout four months away, when the public and news cycles have notoriously short memories.

We also don't know how this is going to change Trump as a candidate.

Since "developing a new-found humility and concern for the effect of violent language" seems unlikely, I'm expecting "unhinged calls for MAGA-or-death commitment."

[YellowKing]

I really feel like he's going to wind up doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric and end up turning off moderates and independents. We've just seen a guy who incites violence at every opportunity get personally impacted by that violence. When that doesn't deter him from inciting even more violence, I think you're going to see a lot of voters thinking, "Is this the road we really want to go down?"

Maybe that's wishful thinking, but I truly in my heart of hearts believe most Americans want stability over chaos.

[Carpet_pissr]

He already had a God complex, so we’re good on that front.

[Holman]

He already had a God complex, so we’re good on that front.

I don't know if you've looked, but "God's hand protected Trump!" is everyone online today.

Sucks to be that bystander, though.

[Alefroth]

Trump's a cult leader, and you can't just swap those out.

That's exactly what I was going to say.

[Zaxxon]

He already had a God complex, so we’re good on that front.

I don't know if you've looked, but "God's hand protected Trump!" is everyone online today.

Sucks to be that bystander, though.

Yeah, He protected that bullet right into a Trump supporter instead.

[Skinypupy]

I don't know if you've looked, but "God's hand protected Trump!" is everyone online today.

“I must protect Donald Trump!! But that class full of third graders? Eh, fuck them.”

[Kraken]

If there's any result of this I might be willing to entertain, it might be increased Republican turnout. But even then, we're speculating on this impacting turnout four months away, when the public and news cycles have notoriously short memories.

I wonder if it might lead to reduced Dem turnout instead. Republicans are already planning to field "election monitors" to intimidate voters at the polls (we all know who they'll single out for "monitoring"). They're also working to restrict or eliminate absentee voting and ballot drop-offs to force voters to show up in person. If I lived in a red or purple state I sure wouldn't vote in person if I expected to encounter armed MAGAts, especially if dear leader is spouting violent rhetoric...as he all but certainly will do.

[Jaymon]

Feels like Biden is handling this well. Strongly denouncing and condemning the act, reaching out personally to check on Trump, calling for de-escalation. Those are all the messages that everyone needs to hear. Not surprising, really. All Biden's faults aside, there's never a doubt (except among the hardcore MAGA loons) that he's a good human being with empathy for others.

The contrast couldn't be more stark.

Biden is acting completely presidentially.

[Holman]

If there's any result of this I might be willing to entertain, it might be increased Republican turnout. But even then, we're speculating on this impacting turnout four months away, when the public and news cycles have notoriously short memories.

I wonder if it might lead to reduced Dem turnout instead. Republicans are already planning to field "election monitors" to intimidate voters at the polls (we all know who they'll single out for "monitoring"). They're also working to restrict or eliminate absentee voting and ballot drop-offs to force voters to show up in person. If I lived in a red or purple state I sure wouldn't vote in person if I expected to encounter armed MAGAts, especially if dear leader is spouting violent rhetoric...as he all but certainly will do.

If we don't let them intimidate us before the fact, we win.

That's how it works. It's how it always works.

Our attitude needs to be "Sorry to hear about the bullets, but fuck Trump and fuck MAGA."

[Daehawk]

Our attitude needs to be "Sorry to hear about the bullets, but fuck Trump and fuck MAGA."

This....every day every way all the time.

[Holman]

But the personality part of that is paramount: It’s why I’ve been repeating, over and over again, that Trump is a unique threat to our democracy. He is not replaceable. There are no stand-ins, at least, none that we’ve seen so far, that could take over Trump’s cult of personality and perpetuate it. None.

I disagree here.

MAGA cultists aren't in this for who Trump is. They're in it for who Trump lets *them* be.

It's not a difficult formula: tell Christian whites that they're superior and that they should oppose the outsiders who threaten their comfort and superiority. There has never been a time when this appeal was not a powerful element in American society and American politics, but during the 20th century it became socially unacceptable to claim it directly.

Trump exploited the reaction against a black POTUS to make this claim explicit rather than implicit. It didn't require genius, just complete shamelessness.

Now that this genie is (back) out of the bottle, it won't be hard to find new leaders willing to play the same game. Trump could die of a stroke tomorrow, and the GOP would erupt into a fight between figures not trying to walk it back but to claim the mantle.

[waitingtoconnect]

One thing I wish people would keep in mind is that most assassins and would-be assassins are motivated by pure individual weirdness.

John Hinckley wanted Jody Foster to like him.
Squeaky Fromme did it for Charles Manson.
Sirhan Sirhan seems to have been unhinged as well.
Even Lee Harvey Oswald and James Earl Ray have elements of mental illness in their backgrounds.

In the American context, assassins are very rarely a clear expression of one political side or another.

This boy was clearly a lone nut. A lunatic and a loner who wanted a mass shooting so he could go out in a blaze of glory not some political ideology.

It would be ironic indeed if the party candidate for a party that had done so much to put and keep guns in the hands of the mentally I’ll had actually been killed by someone who was such an awful shot and who said such terrible things no one would teach him how to get better.

It’s even more ironic that in a country that loves conspiracy that there actually isn’t any in this case.

As for Archduke Ferdinand: history didn’t change with him - Austria Hungary war hawks wanted war with Serbia and would have gotten their wish one way or another. America didn’t die with Lincoln, India didn’t die with Gandhi.

As for trump nativism has been a part of this country for centuries - all the way back to the Know Nothings around the civil war, isolationism, the 1968 election (when they tried to take over the democrats) and the Perot election. Before trump many of these folk largely has stopped voting because “conspiracy”. Also we live in the reality politics age now (perhaps better called the Idiocracy). For a large portion of the electorate they voted for trump because he had name recognition - a lot of people polled don’t know who Hillary Clinton was.

It just like Joe Biden is president for the memory of this son Beau whom he believed would be president now (saving America), trumps death would have unknown effects. There is no apparent leader because trump tolerates no one next to him. But someone would emerge; his daughter perhaps motivated by the memory of her father (as her brothers clearly have no charisma), or another celebrity (we are in the reality politics age). Also dont forget many of the insufferable republicans like Nikki Haley could handily beat Biden in an election based on polling during the Republican debates.

The risk of a competent leader emerging post trump who could marry the maga and big business wings of the republicans back together and fully implement project 2025 can’t be underestimated.