The Kamala Harris presidential candidacy

[Alefroth]

An army full of bitter male and female Karens does not just simply "go away" IMO, once rattled and stirred into action.

They absolutely do. Without a loud voice giving them marching orders, they are nothing. You are giving them too much credit.

[LordMortis]

I think social media has given them a comfort of home among other MAGAts whom they don't actually have be neighbors with to exchange tirades. Will they look for a new chief MAGAt, will one emerge, or will they be without aim? I don't have enough history in MAGAt bonding to give a good opinion and I also under estimated their MAGAt natures already. I do know they won't willingly change when confronted with anything, but where they leads them? I got nuthin'.

[Holman]

One possibility is that the end of Trump will lead to MAGA disillusion with politics, even GOP politics, for a decade or more.

Consider. As soon as Trump croaks or seems irrelevant enough, the Nikki Haleys and Ron D's and Chris Christies (along with most of the executive class and the 1%) will be desperate for a return to the GOP of Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell: no big drama, just huge tax cuts and regulation-slashing.

I don't think the MAGA crowd is going to be too eager to get back on board with that. Trump made politics hateful and fun for them, and they're not going to fall back into line so easily.

[Kurth]

One possibility is that the end of Trump will lead to MAGA disillusion with politics, even GOP politics, for a decade or more.

Consider. As soon as Trump croaks or seems irrelevant enough, the Nikki Haleys and Ron D's and Chris Christies (along with most of the executive class and the 1%) will be desperate for a return to the GOP of Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell: no big drama, just huge tax cuts and regulation-slashing.

I don't think the MAGA crowd is going to be too eager to get back on board with that. Trump made politics hateful and fun for them, and they're not going to fall back into line so easily.

100% this and what Grifman explained earlier. Trump did not create populism, and it will certainly outlive him. But Trump is a perfect vessel for the uglier undercurrents of that movement. He is unique. When he exits the stage (soon hopefully), so does his cult. And that’s what MAGA has turned the GOP into: A cult of personality. That ends with the end of Trump.

Also, just to add, the notion that Musk would step into that void? I think that ignores everything that makes MAGA MAGA. The cult hates Elon and laughs at the fact that Trump has spent so much time bashing him and his EVs only to have Musk come out and support Trump now. They love that, but they sure as hell don’t love nerdy, strange, brilliant, on-the-spectrum Elon. Not one bit.

[waitingtoconnect]

We have to hope Trump is like Olivier Cromwell , certainly like Cromwell his sons are manifestly inadequate and eventually his devotees will up and join musks Martian colonies for freedumb.

[Hyena]

Personally I view this like the Tea Party movement. It had its time and failed, went into a chrysalis before crawling out from its gooey embrace to become MAGA. It's nothing more than the TP basic system of beliefs with a shiney veneer of overt racism and xenophobia. If he loses the election it will send him into a mental tailspin he most likely won't recover from, and his followers will bitch and complain about it, then someone like DeSatan will step in and take up the mantle under another name after his time incubating.

If mullets can come back after 25 years, so can these cockroaches.

[Jaymann]

We have to hope Trump is like Olivier Cromwell , certainly like Cromwell his sons are manifestly inadequate and eventually his devotees will up and join musks Martian colonies for freedumb.

Oliver Cromwell died of malaria and kidney disease in 1658, and his body and head were disinterred and displayed by Charles II.

If we could only be so lucky. Though it would be more likely that the MAGAts would freeze his head in the hopes he could someday be resurrected.

[LawBeefaroni]

They love that, but they sure as hell don’t love nerdy, strange, brilliant, on-the-spectrum Elon. Not one bit.

Nerdy, strange, brilliant? Narcissistic, racist, poser maybe. And that's exactly what they love. But I agree he's not going to replace Trump. It would be too much work.

[Kurth]

They love that, but they sure as hell don’t love nerdy, strange, brilliant, on-the-spectrum Elon. Not one bit.

Nerdy, strange, brilliant? Narcissistic, racist, poser maybe. And that's exactly what they love. But I agree he's not going to replace Trump. It would be too much work.

Musk is a terrible nerd gone bad. But he is still brilliant and strange. Don’t get me wrong: I detest him. But you’re fooling yourself or you don’t really get MAGA if you think MAGA land sees him as anything but a useful fool. Even more, a useful, captured fool. He’s the nerd they mocked and whose lunch money they used to steal. Then he became rich and powerful. And now, strangely, he’s giving them his lunch money willingly.

They’ll gladly take the money and the X platform and call it a win, but they still hate that weird nerd and his weird non-fossil fuel burning cars.

[Grifman]

Enthusiasm is great, but the election isn’t over yet:

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

[LawBeefaroni]

They love that, but they sure as hell don’t love nerdy, strange, brilliant, on-the-spectrum Elon. Not one bit.

Nerdy, strange, brilliant? Narcissistic, racist, poser maybe. And that's exactly what they love. But I agree he's not going to replace Trump. It would be too much work.

Musk is a terrible nerd gone bad. But he is still brilliant and strange. Don’t get me wrong: I detest him. But you’re fooling yourself or you don’t really get MAGA if you think MAGA land sees him as anything but a useful fool. Even more, a useful, captured fool. He’s the nerd they mocked and whose lunch money they used to steal. Then he became rich and powerful. And now, strangely, he’s giving them his lunch money willingly.

They’ll gladly take the money and the X platform and call it a win, but they still hate that weird nerd and his weird non-fossil fuel burning cars.

That's insulting to nerds. He's a guy who won the internet VC lottery. He's a Mark Cuban or Peter Thiel. He bought his way into Tesla. He was a B student in high school and holds a BA in physics and economics. He's not a rocket scientist or an enginneer. He's turning Twitter into a Nazi megaphone. He is exactly the type of grifter that MAGA loves.

[Blackhawk]

I'm not sure what 'on the spectrum' is supposed to imply there, but as someone who is 'on the spectrum' who has a kid who also is, it rubs me the wrong way.

[Exodor]

Taylor Swift officially endorsed Biden in 2020. She didn't do it until about a month before the election, though. So she will likely endorse Harris in the coming weeks.

From a bit back but I looked up Taylor's tour dates - the last date of her European tour is August 20 in London so she could easily make it back to Chicago to appear at the DNC and give her endorsement.

[Kurth]

I'm not sure what 'on the spectrum' is supposed to imply there, but as someone who is 'on the spectrum' who has a kid who also is, it rubs me the wrong way.

No offense intended, Blackhawk. It was just intended to mean that Musk is high-functioning but on the autism spectrum. I thought that was a documented fact, but if I’m wrong about that then I’m in no position to diagnose.

And my point was just that the MAGAt crowd is not known for their loving embrace of people with disabilities or that happen to fall outside the mainstream, so Musk would absolutely not be first in line to step into Trump’s shoes.

[Kurth]

They love that, but they sure as hell don’t love nerdy, strange, brilliant, on-the-spectrum Elon. Not one bit.

Nerdy, strange, brilliant? Narcissistic, racist, poser maybe. And that's exactly what they love. But I agree he's not going to replace Trump. It would be too much work.

Musk is a terrible nerd gone bad. But he is still brilliant and strange. Don’t get me wrong: I detest him. But you’re fooling yourself or you don’t really get MAGA if you think MAGA land sees him as anything but a useful fool. Even more, a useful, captured fool. He’s the nerd they mocked and whose lunch money they used to steal. Then he became rich and powerful. And now, strangely, he’s giving them his lunch money willingly.

They’ll gladly take the money and the X platform and call it a win, but they still hate that weird nerd and his weird non-fossil fuel burning cars.

That's insulting to nerds. He's a guy who won the internet VC lottery. He's a Mark Cuban or Peter Thiel. He bought his way into Tesla. He was a B student in high school and holds a BA in physics and economics. He's not a rocket scientist or an enginneer. He's turning Twitter into a Nazi megaphone. He is exactly the type of grifter that MAGA loves.

Well, comparing anyone to Elon Musk right now is sort of an insult. So I agree with that.

Look, I’m the last person to want to heap any amount of praise on Elon Musk given what he’s become, but I think it takes putting on some pretty strong revisionist lenses to look at everything Musk has done and hand waive it away a random dude who won the VC lottery.

But I don’t think we’re going to see common ground on this. IMHO, I don’t believe the MAGAts would ever embrace Elon Musk. Never.

[Alefroth]

Who would've thought the MAGATs would ever endorse Trump?

[Kraken]

As a giant piggybank and megaphone, Elon is the most useful of idiots. As the world's richest man he's obviously no slouch at business, but politically he's playing 2-dimensional checkers.

[Grifman]

More battleground state polling:

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

[Grifman]

This is hard for me to understand:

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

[LawBeefaroni]

They love that, but they sure as hell don’t love nerdy, strange, brilliant, on-the-spectrum Elon. Not one bit.

Nerdy, strange, brilliant? Narcissistic, racist, poser maybe. And that's exactly what they love. But I agree he's not going to replace Trump. It would be too much work.

Musk is a terrible nerd gone bad. But he is still brilliant and strange. Don’t get me wrong: I detest him. But you’re fooling yourself or you don’t really get MAGA if you think MAGA land sees him as anything but a useful fool. Even more, a useful, captured fool. He’s the nerd they mocked and whose lunch money they used to steal. Then he became rich and powerful. And now, strangely, he’s giving them his lunch money willingly.

They’ll gladly take the money and the X platform and call it a win, but they still hate that weird nerd and his weird non-fossil fuel burning cars.

That's insulting to nerds. He's a guy who won the internet VC lottery. He's a Mark Cuban or Peter Thiel. He bought his way into Tesla. He was a B student in high school and holds a BA in physics and economics. He's not a rocket scientist or an enginneer. He's turning Twitter into a Nazi megaphone. He is exactly the type of grifter that MAGA loves.

Well, comparing anyone to Elon Musk right now is sort of an insult. So I agree with that.

Look, I’m the last person to want to heap any amount of praise on Elon Musk given what he’s become, but I think it takes putting on some pretty strong revisionist lenses to look at everything Musk has done and hand waive it away a random dude who won the VC lottery.

But I don’t think we’re going to see common ground on this. IMHO, I don’t believe the MAGAts would ever embrace Elon Musk. Never.

His brilliance is his lack of shame and ability to lie convincingly. That's how he pumped TSLA to "create" the vast majority of his wealth.


MAGA will embrace whoever they're told to embrace. And Musk has many of the same qualities as Trump. First and foremost, they are both elite bullshit artists.

[LawBeefaroni]

This is hard for me to understand:

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

All I can think of is unions, which would explain MI and PA.

[Kraken]

This is hard for me to understand:

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

All I can think of is unions, which would explain MI and PA.

Maybe it's less about Harris surging than about trump crashing?

[disarm]

This is hard for me to understand:

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

All I can think of is unions, which would explain MI and PA.

Maybe it's less about Harris surging than about trump crashing?

I think the point is that Trump has lost significant ground with a voting group that he typically dominates. Combine that loss of support in a particular group with Harris' strength in other portions of the Pennsylvania population, and she has an increasing chance of pulling out a win.

[Grifman]

I hope that carries over to congressional races as well. A Harris administration with a blue Congress would be a wonderful thing, and a knockout blow for MAGA. So much losing!

I'm of the strong opinion that MAGA is here to stay, because it's not a Donald Trump thing anymore. He just brought it to the forefront and showed that people can openly be their inner assholes, and still win a general election. Also, this is a global trend, it's not just here. Anti-democracy trends are way up in the past x years, all over the place. Right-wing populism is a lot older than Trump, and will be around long after his sorry ass is dead.

This is why MAGA will die:

https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/stat ... NcXCfN8s1g

This type of insanity has not occurred before, nor will it again after Trump. There’s no one else around that I can see who can inspire such a personality cult.

[Kurth]

This is hard for me to understand:

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

All I can think of is unions, which would explain MI and PA.

Maybe it's less about Harris surging than about trump crashing?

Maybe it’s mostly about the fact that people really, really didn’t feel good voting for in Biden for a second term due to his age?

It’s hard for me to understand why someone would ever vote for Trump over practically anyone, but maybe taking away the excuse that “Biden is just too old” was significant enough to move the needle to this degree. Let’s hope it sticks!

[Kurth]

They love that, but they sure as hell don’t love nerdy, strange, brilliant, on-the-spectrum Elon. Not one bit.

Nerdy, strange, brilliant? Narcissistic, racist, poser maybe. And that's exactly what they love. But I agree he's not going to replace Trump. It would be too much work.

Musk is a terrible nerd gone bad. But he is still brilliant and strange. Don’t get me wrong: I detest him. But you’re fooling yourself or you don’t really get MAGA if you think MAGA land sees him as anything but a useful fool. Even more, a useful, captured fool. He’s the nerd they mocked and whose lunch money they used to steal. Then he became rich and powerful. And now, strangely, he’s giving them his lunch money willingly.

They’ll gladly take the money and the X platform and call it a win, but they still hate that weird nerd and his weird non-fossil fuel burning cars.

That's insulting to nerds. He's a guy who won the internet VC lottery. He's a Mark Cuban or Peter Thiel. He bought his way into Tesla. He was a B student in high school and holds a BA in physics and economics. He's not a rocket scientist or an enginneer. He's turning Twitter into a Nazi megaphone. He is exactly the type of grifter that MAGA loves.

Well, comparing anyone to Elon Musk right now is sort of an insult. So I agree with that.

Look, I’m the last person to want to heap any amount of praise on Elon Musk given what he’s become, but I think it takes putting on some pretty strong revisionist lenses to look at everything Musk has done and hand waive it away a random dude who won the VC lottery.

But I don’t think we’re going to see common ground on this. IMHO, I don’t believe the MAGAts would ever embrace Elon Musk. Never.

His brilliance is his lack of shame and ability to lie convincingly. That's how he pumped TSLA to "create" the vast majority of his wealth.


MAGA will embrace whoever they're told to embrace. And Musk has many of the same qualities as Trump. First and foremost, they are both elite bullshit artists.

Still think we should agree to disagree with this, but what you are saying here is counterfactual. MAGA will not embrace whoever they’re told to embrace, and we know that because the MAGAt in chief has told them to embrace people (hello Hershel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, etc.) repeatedly, and they’ve failed to step up and rally behind that candidate.

[YellowKing]

Maybe it’s mostly about the fact that people really, really didn’t feel good voting for in Biden for a second term due to his age?

I think it's a combination of this plus Trump crashing and burning. Harris is a lifeline for people who disliked both candidates, and I don't think it can be underestimated how powerful that is.

What's really surprised me out of this whole campaign is how Harris has managed to somehow disassociate herself from Biden's low approval ratings. People are apparently not seeing her as "more of the same." Ironically I think her lack of visibility as VP over Biden's term might be her greatest asset now.

[ImLawBoy]

The media not spending 50% of its energy focusing on Biden's age and alleged capacity issues (while ignoring the same issues from Trump) probably doesn't hurt.

[Zaxxon]

The media not spending 50% of its energy focusing on Biden's age and alleged capacity issues (while ignoring the same issues from Trump) probably doesn't hurt.

I don't know this guy, and am not endorsing his views in general, but I found this thread pretty interesting. tl;dr - it could also be partially due to the fact that Harris is largely ignoring the press corps, and has taken greater control of her own narrative than Biden did.

Longish xeet thread:

https://twitter.com/johnastoehr/status/ ... 3841514884

[Zaxxon]

https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status ... 3530069242

[LawBeefaroni]

Still think we should agree to disagree with this, but what you are saying here is counterfactual. MAGA will not embrace whoever they’re told to embrace, and we know that because the MAGAt in chief has told them to embrace people (hello Hershel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, etc.) repeatedly, and they’ve failed to step up and rally behind that candidate.

Walker dominated the primary (with backing from MAGA lickspittles like McConnell), forced a runoff in the general and lost 51.5% to 48.5.

Oz lost by 5% but still had 2.5M votes (to Feterman's 2.75).

Lake lost 52.3% to 49.7%.


Claiming they had no MAGA support simply because they lost is kind of revisionist IMO. In fact, that Walker still managed the numbers he did despite a gaffe riddled nightmare of a candidacy has to be due in large part to blind MAGA faith.


Does Trump lack MAGA support? I mean the margins above are pretty much in line with his popular vote performances.

I'm happy to disagree but thinking Musk is nothing more than a useful idiot underestimates the danger he poses as a MAGA ally. He's a fraud and a grifter but he's not an idiot. He's baby Trump with infinitely greater wealth.

[Unagi]

https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status ... 3530069242

Driver gets car back on road, now driver has even bigger problem with tire wear.

[Jaymann]

It is strange how everything fell together for Harris. Had she won the nomination in '20 and beaten DonOld, the Banana Republicans would have had four years to attack her and blame her for the economy and the border "crisis." Same if Biden had dropped out earlier. Her late entry caught the GOP with their pants down, and DonOld flummoxed. The selection of Walz was seemingly out of the blue, but was another boost. Of course the results are in the margin of error, but the trends are massively in her favor.

[hepcat]

I don't think she could have won in 2020 against Trump. She needed the blessing of the old guard in the form of Biden's support, and the appearance that she's doing her duty by accepting the role in light of Biden's perceived age issue. Women who are seen as "ambitious" often see that trait, which is admired in men, used against them as an insult. It's completely unfair, but it's the world we inhabit.

[Kraken]

The media not spending 50% of its energy focusing on Biden's age and alleged capacity issues (while ignoring the same issues from Trump) probably doesn't hurt.

This. The media's attention has shifted dramatically. At least within my (rather large) bubble, I'm now seeing regular stories about Harris' popularity and more about trump's obvious madness. Let's hope they can keep that focus for the next few months.

I don't think she could have won in 2020 against Trump. She needed the blessing of the old guard in the form of Biden's support, and the appearance that she's doing her duty by accepting the role in light of Biden's perceived age issue. Women who are seen as "ambitious" often see that trait, which is admired in men, used against them as an insult. It's completely unfair, but it's the world we inhabit.

She flamed out early in the primaries, but if she had miraculously won the nomination all the things that people didn't like about her would've followed her into the general election. I agree that she needed four years in the on-deck circle.

[The Meal]

If there were 2024 Democratic Party primaries, it’s hard for me to picture Harris coming out on top of the mosh pit. That’s what makes this last month so fascinating to me.

I see reports that she’s connected with the (Biden/Trump) undecideds in an unprecedented way and that she’s turned weak Trump supporters onto undecideds. To me, that’s not union support. That’s female support.

[milo]

She hasn't just been "on deck" as you put it. She has had almost four years in the VP executive role, which involves a lot of hands-on practice for what she's doing now. Her public speeches four years ago were nowhere near as polished or effective as what she is currently demonstrating.

She is also benefitting from a change in "vibes". When she ran the first time, the nation still had the deaths of George Floyd, Michael Brown, and Eric Garner fresh in its memory, and being a prosecutor was not an advantage. This time, she's opposing a convicted felon who has been trying to avoid prosecution on another several dozen charges in multiple districts. I imagine that makes a difference.

[hepcat]

She is also benefitting from a change in "vibes". When she ran the first time, the nation still had the deaths of George Floyd, Michael Brown, and Eric Garner fresh in its memory, and being a prosecutor was not an advantage. This time, she's opposing a convicted felon who has been trying to avoid prosecution on another several dozen charges in multiple districts. I imagine that makes a difference.

This I don't agree with. The "vibe" you mention, the one that ushered her to a loss, wasn't based around her role as a former prosecutor. I suspect that made zero impact during the last election. People weren't in the streets protesting former prosecutors. Especially ones with African American heritage.

No, I truly believe the change is in the way she's being perceived by voters. As mentioned before, a woman who seems to be seeking power is seen as ambitious, and that's not a good thing in the eyes of many (as unjust as that is). Just look at Hillary and the nature of the insults she endured during her campaign. But a woman who steps in to save the day when her party is in trouble? That's a whole new ballgame. Now she's a responsible and loyal party member doing her duty. The more I think about it, the more I think the PR and marketing people behind all this are friggin' geniuses.

[Grifman]

Th e old magic doesn’t seem to be there:

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... NcXCfN8s1g

[Unagi]

It is strange how everything fell together for Harris. Had she won the nomination in '20 and beaten DonOld, the Banana Republicans would have had four years to attack her and blame her for the economy and the border "crisis." Same if Biden had dropped out earlier. Her late entry caught the GOP with their pants down, and DonOld flummoxed. The selection of Walz was seemingly out of the blue, but was another boost. Of course the results are in the margin of error, but the trends are massively in her favor.

It was a coup!

2. a notable or successful stroke or move.
"it was a major coup to get such a prestigious contract"