Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Victoria Raverna]

Still didn't answer my question. I guess I was asking for the Infection Fatality Rate instead of mortality rate. At 2020, it was very high. If we look at the total of infected case vs total death from COVID-19 infection: 7,010,681 / 704,753,890, we got almost 1%. In 2024, is the rate still 1%? 900000 infected = 9000 is going to die? So if 900000 infected daily, 9000 death daily?

The fatality rate so far this year has been about 500 Americans per week, so 9,000 a day is a bit of a stretch.

Which means IFR is going down. The almost 1% is total from the first covid case until now. Total reported death / total reported cases.

So good news then. COVID-19 is no longer that deadly. You're not likely to die from it in short term but in long term maybe you'll still die because of it but it'll be included in different category like for example death because of heart diseases.

[Max Peck]

Or maybe it's as deadly, but as we go along the most susceptible have been culled from the herd (until the survivors age into being more vulnerable hosts). I'm still more concerned about the cumulative long-term effects than whether an acute infection will kill me outright.

[Kraken]

Or maybe it's as deadly, but as we go along the most susceptible have been culled from the herd (until the survivors age into being more vulnerable hosts). I'm still more concerned about the cumulative long-term effects than whether an acute infection will kill me outright.

400M people worldwide have had long Covid

About 400 million people worldwide have been afflicted with long COVID, according to a new report by scientists and other researchers who have studied the condition. The team estimated that the economic cost — from factors like health care services and patients unable to return to work — is about $1 trillion worldwide each year, or about 1 percent of the global economy.

The authors cited studies suggesting that only 7 percent to 10 percent of long COVID patients fully recovered two years after developing long COVID. They added that “some manifestations of long COVID, including heart disease, diabetes, myalgic encephalomyelitis and dysautonomia are chronic conditions that last a lifetime.”

The consequences are far-reaching, the authors wrote: “Long COVID drastically affects patients’ well-being and sense of self, as well as their ability to work, socialize, care for others, manage chores and engage in community activities — which also affects patients’ families, caregivers and their communities.”

The report cited estimates that between 2 million and 4 million adults were out of work because of long COVID in 2022 and that people with long COVID were 10 percent less likely to be employed than those who were never infected with the virus. Long COVID patients often have to reduce their work hours, and 1 in 4 limit activities outside work in order to continue working, the report said.

[waitingtoconnect]

If you aren’t blessed of God and sinless like trump or musk why should you expect good health and indestructible arteries?

Covid is all just a ploy to introduce socialised medicine and the governments preferred human embedded microchip supplier (bill gates) into the bodies of all Americans. It’s also a ploy for whiners who want employers to pay for their health care… Wah I’ve got cancer from daily exposure to dangerous chemicals during the course of my job… Wah my hand was crushed in the machine Wah I injected bleach to stop Covid and now I can’t feel my arms… Now that the bad news has stopped who is say if it really happened at all? What real documentary evidence is there really?

What we need is freedom of choice into which company gets our valuable biodata and can potentially take control over our bodies for use in a coup to “protect” democracy.

(/sarcasm)

[Max Peck]

COVID-19 positivity here (Ottawa) hit 23.2% last week. I'm old enough to remember when anything over 10% was considered alarming, but these days 10% is the break point between low and medium, while 19%+ is categorized as very high.

[Smoove_B]

I mentioned on the other side of the fence that I'm catching up after a week vacation, but I thought I saw something suggesting that the American West and Midwest (not positive on second region) were seeing viral levels in sewage equal to (or greater in some areas) than the winter 2024 peak. I don't even know wtf is happening anymore.

I think there's been some discussion on what that could mean - do we have more people shedding the virus? Do the new variants cause more shedding? Is there really a 1:1 relationship between sewage monitoring and circulating virus estimates? So much we're still guessing.

[Unagi]

than the winter 2024 peak. I don't even know wtf is happening anymore.

?
when?

[Max Peck]

than the winter 2024 peak. I don't even know wtf is happening anymore.

?
when?

I don't have access to the data he's seeing, but I took that simply to mean that in some areas the wastewater levels are higher now than then they were any time over the winter. The virus still hasn't read the memo about how it is supposed to be seasonal.

[Unagi]

than the winter 2024 peak. I don't even know wtf is happening anymore.

?
when?

I don't have access to the data he's seeing, but I took that simply to mean that in some areas the wastewater levels are higher now than then they were any time over the winter. The virus still hasn't read the memo about how it is supposed to be seasonal.

Yeah, but winter 2020 was pretty big compared to winter 2023 (I think?)

[Max Peck]

than the winter 2024 peak. I don't even know wtf is happening anymore.

?
when?

I don't have access to the data he's seeing, but I took that simply to mean that in some areas the wastewater levels are higher now than then they were any time over the winter. The virus still hasn't read the memo about how it is supposed to be seasonal.

Yeah, but winter 2020 was pretty big compared to winter 2023 (I think?)

Maybe but, unless I'm misreading his post, he compared the current levels to winter 2024, not the entire pandemic.

[Unagi]

Sorry, I'm working on the idea that 2024 was a typo, and that winter 2024 is yet to happen; but now I'm starting to realize that winter 2024 may be already past tense and the winter I'm looking at on the horizon will be called Winter 2025.

So, I'll go get some coffee

[Max Peck]

These are the wastewater levels here in Ottawa, going back to June 2020 when wastewater monitoring started. Just eyeballing the graph indicates that the winter 2024 peak was second only to the spring 2022 wave, and the levels in July 2024 were higher than they had been since early February 2024 and are comparable to the peak levels seen in the first couple of waves in late 2020 and early 2021.



It's no wonder that the provincial government is actively defunding wastewater monitoring...

[Smoove_B]

Sorry, I'm working on the idea that 2024 was a typo, and that winter 2024 is yet to happen; but now I'm starting to realize that winter 2024 may be already past tense and the winter I'm looking at on the horizon will be called Winter 2025.

So, I'll go get some coffee

Yeah, though I could have been clearer. Sometimes they''ll call it Winter 23/24 as we'd be looking at data from December and into January and February. I'll see if I can find what I was reading...

[Max Peck]

Sorry, I'm working on the idea that 2024 was a typo, and that winter 2024 is yet to happen; but now I'm starting to realize that winter 2024 may be already past tense and the winter I'm looking at on the horizon will be called Winter 2025.

So, I'll go get some coffee

What he said made sense to me in terms of Winter 2024 being the most recent winter because that aligns very well with what I've been seeing in our local wastewater levels, but I can see how it would be ambiguous if you think of Winter xxxx being the season that starts in December xxxx.

[Smoove_B]

It's no wonder that the provincial government is actively defunding wastewater monitoring...

It's a theme down here too. While the reasons might be obvious, as I mentioned upthread I also don't know if it's because we haven't been able to demonstrate a 1:1 relationship between wastewater levels and risk. Making it worse is that I saw last night only about 31% of U.S. hospitals reported COVID data for last week, so any hospitalization numbers we have are also low - no way to sync them up with wastewater anymore. So all we have at this point is a guess and an observation that refrigerated trucks aren't lining up in major metro areas. So...yay, we're doing it!

[Max Peck]

I don't know about 1:1 correlation, but hospitals and public health officials here have been saying that the wastewater levels have been meaningful early indicators that they rely on to prepare for case surges when new waves are starting up, not just for COVID but for influenza, RSV and anything else that can be monitored. The medical community seems to want monitoring to continue, and the defunding seems to be entirely political. Because the economy, I guess.

[Smoove_B]

Yes, that was the original idea but it's not quite working out - not only with deaths but also with hospitalizations. That's what I'm trying to find again - what I was reading as to the guesses over what might be happening. Do new variants cause higher viral shedding? Are there more carriers of the virus now that are sub-acute and just releasing virus into wastewater? We've been assuming that increased virus means more people are sick, but there are other possibilities. Without additional data (like tests and hospitalizations) we're just assuming a bunch of stuff to get to the "we're seeing more virus in the wastewater so a surge is likely underway..."

Granted, if we've been seeing X virus in wastewater and then we're seeing X^5 virus in wastewater, something *is happening*, it's just hard to know if the magnitude is as great as we're implying.

[LordMortis]

For whatever reason, Johns Hopkins just sent me a follow up survey to the one someone posted here in May. I think I am atypical. My health has been generally improving since 2022 minus a huge non disease related SNAFU and possibly my mental health; and I continue to a never COVID supporter, at least for the moment.

[Kurth]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that I may have COVID. My son just got over being sick, and I started feeling kind of shitty over the weekend with congestion and hoarseness. This morning, when I went to take a shower, the water felt weird on my skin, and brushing my hair was uncomfortable. Those are always dead give aways for me.

I was supposed to travel for work tomorrow, but I just called in and cancelled. Oh well. Nothing urgent I can't get done remotely, and the thought of making the early morning flight tomorrow and spending the next two nights in a Marriott were not appealing in the least.

[Unagi]

Yeah, though I could have been clearer. Sometimes they''ll call it Winter 23/24 as we'd be looking at data from December and into January and February.

Really, it's not you - it's me.

It's a problem I have with the calendar, I never give Fall enough credit into the late year, and I mentally give up on Summer before the end of September too.

[Zaxxon]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that I may have COVID. My son just got over being sick, and I started feeling kind of shitty over the weekend with congestion and hoarseness. This morning, when I went to take a shower, the water felt weird on my skin, and brushing my hair was uncomfortable. Those are always dead give aways for me.

I was supposed to travel for work tomorrow, but I just called in and cancelled. Oh well. Nothing urgent I can't get done remotely, and the thought of making the early morning flight tomorrow and spending the next two nights in a Marriott were not appealing in the least.

Good luck!

[Smoove_B]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that I may have COVID.

There's quite a bit of this (similar statement) going around, at least anecdotally. People not feeling well and taking an at-home test that's negative. Then waiting ~3 days and repeating (because they're still sick AF) and it trips positive.

While it's possible that it could be any number of other things, I can't help but think right now that no one is having an "allergy attack" or suffering from a "mysterious summer cold". I hope it's mild and you can bounce back - but as always, take it easy.

[LordMortis]

While it's possible that it could be any number of other things, I can't help but think right now that no one is having an "allergy attack" or suffering from a "mysterious summer cold". I hope it's mild and you can bounce back - but as always, take it easy.

It's been a bad allergy season for me for a while, even as I've been locked up with the AC on most of the summer, to which my $200 electric bill will attest. Including vision issues and sniffle. I can't imagine it's been at all COVIDy though I've take no tests. Besides, it wasn't on the survey.

[Kurth]

I've got a sneaking suspicion that I may have COVID.

There's quite a bit of this (similar statement) going around, at least anecdotally. People not feeling well and taking an at-home test that's negative. Then waiting ~3 days and repeating (because they're still sick AF) and it trips positive.

While it's possible that it could be any number of other things, I can't help but think right now that no one is having an "allergy attack" or suffering from a "mysterious summer cold". I hope it's mild and you can bounce back - but as always, take it easy.

Thanks, Smoove. Nothing acute for me, just a general feeling of being under the weather. Hopefully, several hours on the couch getting through BG3 Act 2 this afternoon will get me back on my feet soon.

[Jaymon]

3 out of every 200 deaths in the US are due to COVID. It’s the 4th largest cause, behind heart disease, cancer and accidents.

That's so 2022.

Covid is now the #10 cause of death in the US among all age groups

The linked story only tells us that "The leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer and a category of injuries that includes gun deaths and drug overdoses." It doesn't say what's in positions 4-9.

Einstein : You cannot count the one in South Bend. He died of Covid!
Jonathan Brewster : He wouldn't have died of Covid if I hadn't shot him!