Ukraine

[Unagi]

Yeah, I know I'm being a little sensitive to the language.

WHAT?!? YOU?!? NOoooooooo.

I genuinely appreciate everyone being (mostly) tolerant of my attitude/posts - I'm trying to be better.

[Max Peck]

Probably just another smoking-related workplace accident, no big deal...

Ukrainian drone attack triggers earthquake-sized blast at arsenal in Russia's Tver region

A large-scale Ukrainian drone attack on Russia triggered an earthquake-sized blast at a major arsenal in the Tver region on Wednesday, forcing the evacuation of a nearby town, war bloggers and some media reported.

Unverified video and images on social media showed a huge ball of flame blasting into the night sky and multiple detonations thundering across a lake about 380 km (240 miles) west of Moscow.

NASA satellites picked up intense heat sources emanating from an area of about 14 square kilometres (5 square miles) at the site in the early hours and earthquake monitoring stations noted what sensors thought was a small earthquake in the area.

"The enemy hit an ammunition depot in the area of Toropets," said Yuri Podolyaka, a Ukrainian-born, pro-Russian military blogger. "Everything that can burn is already burning there (and exploding)."

I've seen imagery, allegedly from NASA's FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System), that indicates the entire facility is burning.

[Grifman]

Amazing:

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1836 ... NcXCfN8s1g

[Kurth]

Those videos are insane.

[Kraken]

That is a whole lot of ordinance going kerblooie, but I wonder if it will make a noticeable difference. Russia flings an unfathomable amount of explosives at Ukraine every day. Is this unfathomable minus one or unfathomable minus 100? How many billions in Ukraine-aid equivalent did we just see go poof?

I have no context for this gratifying mega-explosion.

[Unagi]

Yeah, I wondered that exact thing too. But - at the least, I can say that it looks like a lot of Ukrainian villages could be on fire from this amount of ammunition.

[Max Peck]

What was stored at the Russian arms depot in Tver region struck by Ukraine's drones?

Renovated in 2018, the facility in Toropets is estimated to have stored tonnes upon tonnes of military goods, including explosives, artillery shells and ballistic missiles.

A Ukrainian drone attack on a significant Russian weapons stockpile in the Tver region in the early hours of Wednesday might be the Ukrainian army's biggest hit against Moscow's arsenal since early 2022.

The blast from the strike was so strong that earthquake monitoring stations picked it up as if it were a minor earthquake, while NASA reported a series of heat sources spotted by its equipment from space.

The facility in Toropets is estimated to have stored around 30,000 tonnes of military munitions.

The town of Toropets is situated around 470 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border and the destruction of the ammunition that was stored there will most likely negatively affect the northern operational group of the Russian army, including the supply of troops in Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk.

According to Ukrainian sources, the military site in Toropets reportedly housed fuel tanks, as well as missiles intended for Iskander missile systems, Tochka-U missile systems, guided aerial bombs and assorted artillery ammunition.

The head of Ukraine's Centre for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, said that in addition to its own ammunition, Russia had also started to store North Korean munitions in Toropets.

That assessment makes it sound like it will affect Russia's ability to respond to the Kursk incursion and conduct terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, but perhaps not directly impact the Russian offensive in the Donbas.

[Unagi]

I've always wondered what the tonnes upon tonnes to lbs conversion was.

[Max Peck]

This AP report is interesting in a couple of ways.

Ukrainian drones strike a major military depot in a Russian town northwest of Moscow

Ukrainian drones struck a large military depot in a town deep inside Russia overnight, causing a huge fire and forcing some residents to evacuate, a Ukrainian official and Russian news reports said Wednesday. At least 13 people were injured, Russia’s Health Ministry added.

Meanwhile, a senior U.S. diplomat said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has a workable plan to end the war, now in its third year, although its details have not been publicly disclosed.

Ukraine claimed the strike destroyed military warehouses in Toropets, a town in Russia’s Tver region about 380 kilometers (240 miles) northwest of Moscow and about 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the border with Ukraine.

The attack was carried out by Ukraine’s Security Service, along with Ukraine’s Intelligence and Special Operations Forces, a Kyiv security official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the operation.

According to the official, the depot housed Iskander and Tochka-U missiles, as well as glide bombs and artillery shells. He said the facility caught fire in the strike and was burning across an area 6 kilometers (4 miles) wide.

If SOF were involved, then that implies that they may have had boots on the ground rather than simply hitting the arsenal with long-range drones.

It'll be interesting to learn more of the Ukrainian plan to end the war. From here in the bleachers I'm loathe to see Putin keep anything, but it isn't my blood being shed to push them back, and I doubt any "workable" plan would entail Ukraine regaining all of the occupied territory.

[Max Peck]

I've always wondered what the tonnes upon tonnes to lbs conversion was.

I presume that "tonnes upon tonnes" simply refers to the haphazard manner in which Russia stores its munitions. You just pile a tonne of Iranian drones on top of a tonne of Korean missiles on top of a tonne of artillery shells and head off on your smoke break. What could go wrong?

[Unagi]

Couldn't the SOF simply be the remote pilots of the drones?

[Max Peck]

Couldn't the SOF simply be the remote pilots of the drones?

Anything is possible, but I've never heard of them being involved in development and operation of long-range strategic drones. I have heard of them being used to infiltrate Russian territory in order to attack Russian strategic assets. If they were involved, it might have been to have eyes on the target to provide targeting guidance for long range drones, or they might have deployed tactical drones as part of the attack.

On the other hand, releasing that information could be maskirovka to make the Russians believe they have infiltrators far behind the front lines so that they have to tie up even more resources to go chasing after ghosts.

[raydude]

What was stored at the Russian arms depot in Tver region struck by Ukraine's drones?

Renovated in 2018, the facility in Toropets is estimated to have stored tonnes upon tonnes of military goods, including explosives, artillery shells and ballistic missiles.

A Ukrainian drone attack on a significant Russian weapons stockpile in the Tver region in the early hours of Wednesday might be the Ukrainian army's biggest hit against Moscow's arsenal since early 2022.

The blast from the strike was so strong that earthquake monitoring stations picked it up as if it were a minor earthquake, while NASA reported a series of heat sources spotted by its equipment from space.

The facility in Toropets is estimated to have stored around 30,000 tonnes of military munitions.

The town of Toropets is situated around 470 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border and the destruction of the ammunition that was stored there will most likely negatively affect the northern operational group of the Russian army, including the supply of troops in Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk.

According to Ukrainian sources, the military site in Toropets reportedly housed fuel tanks, as well as missiles intended for Iskander missile systems, Tochka-U missile systems, guided aerial bombs and assorted artillery ammunition.

The head of Ukraine's Centre for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, said that in addition to its own ammunition, Russia had also started to store North Korean munitions in Toropets.

That assessment makes it sound like it will affect Russia's ability to respond to the Kursk incursion and conduct terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, but perhaps not directly impact the Russian offensive in the Donbas.

This google map shows Toropets in relation to Moscow and Ukraine:


So it definitely supports the theory that it will affect northern operations (Kursk and surrounding areas). As I suspected, the town is on a rail line. Recall that back when Russia first invaded a guy by the name of Trent Telenko made a name for himself by commenting on the state of Russian military distribution logistics. The main point is their trucks are poorly maintained and most of the supply distribution is by rail. And also Russia perfers to use manpower as opposed to forklifts and pallets.

All this to say that I think Torpets is one of a few depots that Russia was using to supply the northern operations. It makes sense given that the explosions were so large and there were so many supplies stored there. After all, if your supply lines are driven by manpower it is more efficient to put many men on fewer ammo dumps than fewer men on many ammo dumps.

[Max Peck]

Another thing that occurred to me last night is that if the Toropets strike was actually the result of SOF operating behind Russian lines, it would answer the question of how Ukraine managed to penetrate what should be some of the most heavily defensed air space in Russia.

Moving on to other news, the BBC has published another analysis of Russian casualties:

Volunteers dying as Russia’s war dead tops 70,000

More than 70,000 people fighting in Russia’s military have now died in Ukraine, according to data analysed by the BBC.

And for the first time, volunteers - civilians who joined the armed forces after the start of the war - now make up the highest number of people killed on the battlefield since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Every day, the names of those killed in Ukraine, their obituaries and photographs from their funerals are published across Russia in the media and on social networks.

BBC Russian and the independent website Mediazona have collated these names, along with names from other open sources, including official reports.

We checked that the information had been shared by authorities or relatives of the deceased - and that they had been identified as dying in the war.

New graves in cemeteries have also helped provide the names of soldiers killed in Ukraine - these are usually marked by flags and wreaths sent by the defence ministry.

We have identified the names of 70,112 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, but the actual number is believed to be considerably higher. Some families do not share details of their relatives’ deaths publicly - and our analysis does not include names we were unable to check, or the deaths of militia in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

[LawBeefaroni]

Ukraine keeps hitting home runs but they have NATO pitching behind them. Russia is managing to stay in the game.

[Jaymann]

That's at least 12,000 more than US military died in Vietnam. And counting.

[Isgrimnur]

Nothing fixes a demographic crisis like killing off all your young men.

[Max Peck]

Nothing fixes a demographic crisis like killing off all your young men.

To be fair to Vlad, he's currently killing off his middle-aged and soon-to-be-pensioner men if the BBC reporting is accurate.

[LawBeefaroni]

Nothing fixes a demographic crisis like killing off all your young men.

To be fair to Vlad, he's currently killing off his middle-aged and soon-to-be-pensioner men if the BBC reporting is accurate.

We have identified the names of 70,112 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, but the actual number is believed to be considerably higher. Some families do not share details of their relatives’ deaths publicly - and our analysis does not include names we were unable to check, or the deaths of militia in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

The real number is much higher. And it doesn't count the hundreds of thousands of severely wounded. Who are probably soon-to-be-dead if Russia's past track record is any indication.

[Max Peck]

Yeah, I know that young Russians are also dying. It's noteworthy, though, that despite Russia's huge manpower pool they are resorting to recruiting men who are middle-aged or even senior citizens, and this is currently the predominant demographic in Russian casualties. Even if they were getting the training and equipment they were promised they were never going to be all that combat effective, but that doesn't really matter given that they are destined for the meat waves.

[Carpet_pissr]

Gives new meaning to No Country for Old Men.

[$iljanus]

I think Russia isn’t worried about a manpower shortage…


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... da-impact/

MOSCOW — At age 25, Maryana Naumova is one of the freshest faces of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wartime propaganda machine.

She has a show on the flagship Kremlin-controlled television network Channel One, 85,000 subscribers on Telegram, the messaging app that is now the main news platform for Russian speakers worldwide, and is a regular speaker at youth forums, universities and talk shows across the country.

Formerly a child-prodigy powerlifter with little experience in journalism, Naumova has reported from most of the major battles of the war in Ukraine — including, most recently, Kyiv’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, as well as from Mariupol and Bakhmut, two Ukrainian cities that Russian forces nearly demolished and then seized. Her dispatches have focused not on Russia’s military as an invading force but as liberators of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.

“We showed everything as it was,” Naumova said in an interview with The Washington Post about her coverage of Russia’s siege of Mariupol, in which she claimed without evidence that Ukrainian forces attacked civilians. “It was very strange that the state of Ukraine shelled its own citizens,” she said. “I felt such dissonance. It was incomprehensible to me. … I mean … they call them their people.”

Naumova is one of thousands of young Russians who have inserted themselves into their country’s new wartime system, adopting Kremlin spin as their own beliefs and ensuring that Putin’s core ideology, of ultranationalist patriotism and Orthodox Christian values, will be carried forward by a new generation. This includes the idea that the United States wants to destroy Russia and that Russia is a peace-seeking victim rather than an aggressor. Like Naumova, they see themselves as patriotic truth-tellers, not instruments of spin.

[LawBeefaroni]

She has a show on the flagship Kremlin-controlled television network Channel One, 85,000 subscribers on Telegram...

Do ghosts rank above or below bots on the subscriber hierarchy?

[Kraken]

I think Russia isn’t worried about a manpower shortage…

Putin very much wants to avoid a large general draft. If Ukraine can deplete enough of the expendable Russians to force a general call-up, Putin begins to lose public support. Russia certainly does have a large manpower advantage, but tapping it beyond prisoners and the underclasses will be politically painful.

[Max Peck]

I think Russia isn’t worried about a manpower shortage…

They're playing the long game, but they absolutely are worried about having enough warm bodies.

Russia wants a baby boom, but some women resist becoming a mother for the motherland

While addressing a crowd at the Eurasian Women's Forum in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed government policy geared toward helping women achieve the ultimate balance — professional success while being the linchpin "of a large, large family."

He went on to joke that Russian women can manage it easily, and still remain "beautiful, gentle and charming."

His comments are the latest in a public push by government officials to try and reverse Russia's sinking birth rate by appealing to a sense of patriotic duty and promising financial incentives to sway prospective parents.

Russia's fertility rate — which measures the average number of children born to a woman over a lifetime — stands at approximately 1.4, less than what is considered the rate for population replacement, which is 2.1. Kremlin officials have labelled Russia's statistic "catastrophic," and it comes at a time of higher mortality among younger Russian men due to the war in Ukraine.

Earlier this month, a lawmaker told state media that just as Russia decided it needed to launch a special military operation in Ukraine, it needs a "special demographic operation" at home to ensure the country's future.

The common desire to turn women into baby factories is just one more reason why the Western far-right movement loves Russia so much.

[gilraen]

Russian government has been offering one-time payments and mortgage subsidies since at least 2018 for birth of each child. Even with state-sponsored healthcare, childcare and other incentives that are, honestly, better in Russia than in the US, they can't bribe women to turn their lives upside down to become breeding mares "for the motherland".

[Max Peck]

That's why visionaries like J.D. Vance would prefer to remove a woman's choice from the equation.

[Max Peck]

In other news, Russia seems to be prematurely expending additional ammunition stocks.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/113174840468765038

In Russia's Krasnodar region, explosions occurred overnight at an ammunition depot. Local authorities evacuated the population due to ongoing detonations.

Additionally, the 23rd GRAU arsenal, located 16 km from the recently destroyed 107th arsenal in Tver Oblast, was reportedly also attacked. Russia's defense ministry claimed to have shot down 101 drones overnight.

[Unagi]

Russia is expanding its program of unplanned rapid ammunition deconstruction throughout the country.

[Punisher]

Wouldn't it be ironic if this invasion was the downfall of Russia?

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't this whole thing because Putin was butthurt over the Ukraine? Is there some critical resource they have that I'm not aware of?

[Max Peck]

It's mostly about Putin's desire to restore what he sees as "Greater Russia" -- essentially he's butthurt about the collapse of the Soviet Union and wants to go down in the history books as the guy who got it all back. Regaining control of Ukraine, by annexing the east and turning the rest into a compliant puppet, was supposed to be the next step after annexing Crimea, but his 3-day war hasn't gone according to plan.

[Kraken]

Putin regards Ukraine as Russia's natural domain, and historically he isn't wrong; "the Ukraine" was considered Russia's breadbasket, IIRC. Likewise, he sees NATO encroaching on Russia's borders and that's threatening. It's not about resources so much as border security and historical sphere of influence.

[Punisher]

It's mostly about Putin's desire to restore what he sees as "Greater Russia" -- essentially he's butthurt about the collapse of the Soviet Union and wants to go down in the history books as the guy who got it all back. Regaining control of Ukraine, by annexing the east and turning the rest into a compliant puppet, was supposed to be the next step after annexing Crimea, but his 3-day war hasn't gone according to plan.

I wonder if someone did a typo and really meant 3 year war.... although that's looking unlikely as well.

[Max Peck]

Putin regards Ukraine as Russia's natural domain, and historically he isn't wrong; "the Ukraine" was considered Russia's breadbasket, IIRC. Likewise, he sees NATO encroaching on Russia's borders and that's threatening. It's not about resources so much as border security and historical sphere of influence.

Those are excuses, not reasons.

[Carpet_pissr]

Wouldn't it be ironic if this invasion was the downfall of Russia?

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't this whole thing because Putin was butthurt over the Ukraine? Is there some critical resource they have that I'm not aware of?

Grains…they are a massive exporter of all kinds, as well as sunflower oil and meal, which is used in a crap ton of food products you wouldn’t even imagine.

When the war started, the exponential spike in global sunflower oil prices affected all the big food manufacturers, and definitely was a part of the food price inflation we saw here.

I was working for a company that was trying to source it at the time and let’s just say things got crazy. It was interesting to see what lengths some of the companies behind the brands you know and live will go to in a supply chain crisis like that.

[Isgrimnur]

Putin regards Ukraine as Russia's natural domain, and historically he isn't wrong; "the Ukraine" was considered Russia's breadbasket, IIRC. Likewise, he sees NATO encroaching on Russia's borders and that's threatening. It's not about resources so much as border security and historical sphere of influence.

[Alefroth]

Russia is accelerating it's unexpected ammunition detonation program-

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cwy9pkrpyjdo

[Holman]

Putin regards Ukraine as Russia's natural domain, and historically he isn't wrong; "the Ukraine" was considered Russia's breadbasket, IIRC.

This depends on what's meant by "Russia," since most Ukrainians remember Stalin's Moscow government intentionally starving Ukraine to death in the 1930s.

Likewise, he sees NATO encroaching on Russia's borders and that's threatening. It's not about resources so much as border security and historical sphere of influence.

"NATO encroaching" can better be understood (and I know you know this) as "former western-USSR regions seeking protection from Putin's Russia."

[Kraken]

Putin regards Ukraine as Russia's natural domain, and historically he isn't wrong; "the Ukraine" was considered Russia's breadbasket, IIRC.

This depends on what's meant by "Russia," since most Ukrainians remember Stalin's Moscow government intentionally starving Ukraine to death in the 1930s.

Likewise, he sees NATO encroaching on Russia's borders and that's threatening. It's not about resources so much as border security and historical sphere of influence.

"NATO encroaching" can better be understood (and I know you know this) as "former western-USSR regions seeking protection from Putin's Russia."

I was attempting to describe Putin's point of view. The most delicious irony of his Ukraine invasion is expanding and strengthening NATO, thinking that his boy trump had neutralized it. Oopsie!

[Blackhawk]

Russia is accelerating it's unexpected ammunition detonation program-

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cwy9pkrpyjdo

It's funny how every single time this happens, Russia admits that it happened, but then insists that they actually shot the drone down and the debris ignited the munitions.