The CBC put together a comparison of Israeli and Iranian military capability a few days ago. My guess is that Israel will dominate as long as they don't run out of bombs and missiles, and the US will spare no expense to replenish the stockpiles.
Israel vs. Iran: Who has the stronger military?
Israel has about 170,000 active military personnel and 465,000 reservists, according to estimates. That compares to Iran's 600,000 personnel, 350,000 reservists and 220,000 paramilitary forces.
And with a population of nearly 90 million, compared to Israel's 10 million, Iran has a significant advantage.
As for other factors, some reports give Iran an advantage in terms of numbers of tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles.
But decades of international sanctions have largely cut Iran off from the latest high-tech military equipment, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), another think-thank, in London.
Iran's conventional armed forces, although large by regional standards, "struggle with an increasingly obsolescent equipment inventory," the IISS said in a 2023 report.
Meanwhile, one distinct advantage Israel holds is its air force, considered one of the most advanced in the world.
The Iranian air force has 37,000 personnel, but has only a few dozen working strike aircraft, including Russian jets and aging U.S. models acquired before the Iranian revolution of 1979. Tehran has a squadron of nine F-4 and F-5 fighter jets, some F-7s and F-14s, plus one squadron of Russian-made Sukhoi-24 jets and some MiG-29s, IISS says.
Israel has an advanced, U.S.-supplied air force with hundreds of F-15, F-16 and F-35 multipurpose jet fighters.
"That is a major advantage, especially in the early stages of an Iran-Israel conflict. Iran is still using decades-old aircraft," said Shaikh.
Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, which includes thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, according to a 2021 report.
But Israel has one of the most technologically advanced missile arsenals in the Middle East, it states.
"Iran might have a larger army or population to draw upon," Shaikh said. "But if a full war breaks out, a lot of the initial fighting will be through air and missile power. And that's where Israel holds strong advantages."
Ostovar says the impact of any Iranian missiles would be significant. But, he says, Iran cannot win a war by missiles alone.
Iran "can destroy stuff. It can kill people," he said. "But it can't win."
Israel, as well, wouldn't be able to defeat Iran just through missile attacks, Ostovar says, but it could inflict much more damage.
Israel can "get right up close to Iran with its F-35s and launch precision missiles that really will hit their targets," he said.
And, of course, Israel has much better air defense systems than Iran.
