Trump 2024 Campaign - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly.

[Daehawk]

Ive submitted a request for mail in ballot this time as I cant afford a uber to go vote. This is a very red area though and Im not fully sure my ballot will get counted by the republicans handling it.

[LawBeefaroni]

The number of Republicans planning on voting for Harris has jumped from 4% to 9% in the last month alone. And I still think there is a not insignificant number of Republican voters who will vote for Harris in secret.

I saw an interesting analysis that said the national polling margin of Harris up by 3-4% may not be an accurate reflection of her electoral college chances, because part of Trump's competitiveness at the national level is from increased Republican support in high population blue states like California and New York. The conclusion was that Trump may look more competitive in the national polling than he actually is, as his gains in those blue states don't translate to any gain in the electoral college.

The national polls are poor indicators (and possibly even misleading) as long as the electoral college is decided in a handful of battleground states. The polls' MOE alone is enough to swing those states either way and thus swing the entire election.

[Daehawk]

Got an email from the Trump campaign titled Are you my friend?..I replied Fuck you.

[Kurth]

Got an email from the Trump campaign titled Are you my friend?..I replied Fuck you.

I know you know that no one is going to read that and it won’t matter at all and might just help ensure you will get more of those emails, but I’m sure that felt really good in the moment! I smiled just reading it.

[raydude]

From the article in the Washington Post about Cherleroi, PA, which was the latest target of Trumps "immigrants are bad" fear-mongering, where it talked about a woman who took the lectern at a council meeting:

“They think they’re better than us, and they’re not,” she told roughly 40 people who showed up to watch, assembled in a small room downtown just a short walk from immigrant-owned storefronts.

That right there says everything about the people who support the fear-mongering about immigrants. It's the old "those people don't have a right to be better than whites" thinking that's pervaded this country ever since it was born.

And the irony is, those Haitians came there to work jobs that needed to be done by a local food production company. Who the fuck else was going to do the jobs? Certainly not that lady at the lectern.

And even worse, later down in the article:

In interviews, some Washington County voters struggled to explain why seeing immigrants around unsettled them. They just knew it gave them pause.

“I have nothing against them,” said Bill Welch, who is in his 50s. “It’s just —”

He stopped.

“They’re just — ”

Another long pause.

“I don’t know,” he said. “It’s hard to explain. I’m old school.”

I get it dude.You can say it. "Why did they have to be so black? And so...different?"

[hepcat]

That sounds frighteningly like the sentiments expressed by white neighbors in Tulsa, Oklahoma in 1921.

[Punisher]

The number of Republicans planning on voting for Harris has jumped from 4% to 9% in the last month alone. And I still think there is a not insignificant number of Republican voters who will vote for Harris in secret.

I saw an interesting analysis that said the national polling margin of Harris up by 3-4% may not be an accurate reflection of her electoral college chances, because part of Trump's competitiveness at the national level is from increased Republican support in high population blue states like California and New York. The conclusion was that Trump may look more competitive in the national polling than he actually is, as his gains in those blue states don't translate to any gain in the electoral college.

The national polls are poor indicators (and possibly even misleading) as long as the electoral college is decided in a handful of battleground states. The polls' MOE alone is enough to swing those states either way and thus swing the entire election.

Surely Larry and Curly have a say too?

[Alefroth]

Surely, the little known 4th Stooge?

[Punisher]

Surely, the little known 4th Stooge?

We don't talk about Bruno...I mean Shemp.

[YellowKing]

Shemp is my favorite Stooge.

[hepcat]

Let's talk about the Trump Bible he was hawking not that long ago.

First off, they're made in China. They cost 3 dollars to make and they were being sold for 60 bucks a pop.

Then, all around scumbag Oklahoma Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters tried to make the Trump branded bible the only bible that could be purchased for his initiative to turn his state into one that hates jews, muslims, or anyone else who isn't a god fearing christian and supporter of Trump. After this was revealed though, he was forced to change the requirements.

[Daehawk]

Why wasn't he fired?

[hepcat]

Because there are more people like him in his region than there are sensible folks.

[Daehawk]

OMG I just got a email invite to meet Trump in mar a lago via a contest. Says enter now and to please donate to the gop party each week.

Fuck him,,fuck him and the bitch that spawned him..fuck his name and those who worship him.

Makes me want to form the Fuck Donald tRump Party, change my legal name to Fuck Donald tRump and to run for write in president on the ballot with the motto Fuck Donald tRump today tomorrow and every day until death do us part.

[Scraper]

OMG I just got a email invite to meet Trump in mar a lago via a contest. Says enter now and to please donate to the gop party each week.

Fuck him,,fuck him and the bitch that spawned him..fuck his name and those who worship him.

Makes me want to form the Fuck Donald tRump Party, change my legal name to Fuck Donald tRump and to run for write in president on the ballot with the motto Fuck Donald tRump today tomorrow and every day until death do us part.

So you didn't sign up for the contest?

[Blackhawk]

Given his desire for a carnal relationship with the man, he probably entered twice.

[Daehawk]

He didn't throw in the tRump bible or collectible coin so no I did not enter.

[Pyperkub]

From the article in the Washington Post about Cherleroi, PA, which was the latest target of Trumps "immigrants are bad" fear-mongering, where it talked about a woman who took the lectern at a council meeting:

“They think they’re better than us, and they’re not,” she told roughly 40 people who showed up to watch, assembled in a small room downtown just a short walk from immigrant-owned storefronts.

That right there says everything about the people who support the fear-mongering about immigrants. It's the old "those people don't have a right to be better than whites" thinking that's pervaded this country ever since it was born.

And the irony is, those Haitians came there to work jobs that needed to be done by a local food production company. Who the fuck else was going to do the jobs? Certainly not that lady at the lectern.

And even worse, later down in the article:

In interviews, some Washington County voters struggled to explain why seeing immigrants around unsettled them. They just knew it gave them pause.

“I have nothing against them,” said Bill Welch, who is in his 50s. “It’s just —”

He stopped.

“They’re just — ”

Another long pause.

“I don’t know,” he said. “It’s hard to explain. I’m old school.”

I get it dude.You can say it. "Why did they have to be so black? And so...different?"

Yeah, it is quite disturbing to see how much the GOP racists have corrupted the long held conservative views - former National Review writer (who left as it became the trash it is now) on 86'ing those views,( if they were ever true, and not just a veneer over the racism - which is a take which can be argued):

From the traditional conservative point of view, the Haitian story in Springfield is, at least in part, a success: Hard-working people got jobs and put in a lot of hours and drew assets out of the subsidized welfare-state economy into the free market. Which is great if you are the ghost of Milton Friedman but a real inconvenience if you are an underemployed denizen of Springfield looking for a subsidized housing arrangement and unwilling to match the … rigorous Caribbean work ethic? … of your new neighbors.

J.D. Vance and Donald Trump practice a form of European-inflected right-wing politics known in academic circles as “welfare chauvinism,” which rejects the traditional Republican emphasis on individual responsibility and free enterprise and instead embraces a combination of welfare statism and Kulturkampf sensibilities: populism and nationalism shading into ethnocentrism and xenophobia. The case against the Haitians isn’t that they are welfare malingers or cat-eaters—or even that they are illegal immigrants who came here thanks to Joe Biden’s lax border enforcement, which most of them aren’t. The real issue is that by working overtime and investing in the community, they have made life more challenging for a reliable Trump-voting constituency: marginally employed white people on the dole.

[LordMortis]

real inconvenience if you are an underemployed denizen of Springfield looking for a subsidized housing arrangement

Welcome to my neighborhood and specifically ever renter moving in next to me to terrorize the area as best they can. All I can hope for is they trash the place so bad the landlord loses money. But... Subsidized...

[El Guapo]

From the article in the Washington Post about Cherleroi, PA, which was the latest target of Trumps "immigrants are bad" fear-mongering, where it talked about a woman who took the lectern at a council meeting:

“They think they’re better than us, and they’re not,” she told roughly 40 people who showed up to watch, assembled in a small room downtown just a short walk from immigrant-owned storefronts.

That right there says everything about the people who support the fear-mongering about immigrants. It's the old "those people don't have a right to be better than whites" thinking that's pervaded this country ever since it was born.

And the irony is, those Haitians came there to work jobs that needed to be done by a local food production company. Who the fuck else was going to do the jobs? Certainly not that lady at the lectern.

And even worse, later down in the article:

In interviews, some Washington County voters struggled to explain why seeing immigrants around unsettled them. They just knew it gave them pause.

“I have nothing against them,” said Bill Welch, who is in his 50s. “It’s just —”

He stopped.

“They’re just — ”

Another long pause.

“I don’t know,” he said. “It’s hard to explain. I’m old school.”

I get it dude.You can say it. "Why did they have to be so black? And so...different?"

Yeah, it is quite disturbing to see how much the GOP racists have corrupted the long held conservative views - former National Review writer (who left as it became the trash it is now) on 86'ing those views,( if they were ever true, and not just a veneer over the racism - which is a take which can be argued):

From the traditional conservative point of view, the Haitian story in Springfield is, at least in part, a success: Hard-working people got jobs and put in a lot of hours and drew assets out of the subsidized welfare-state economy into the free market. Which is great if you are the ghost of Milton Friedman but a real inconvenience if you are an underemployed denizen of Springfield looking for a subsidized housing arrangement and unwilling to match the … rigorous Caribbean work ethic? … of your new neighbors.

J.D. Vance and Donald Trump practice a form of European-inflected right-wing politics known in academic circles as “welfare chauvinism,” which rejects the traditional Republican emphasis on individual responsibility and free enterprise and instead embraces a combination of welfare statism and Kulturkampf sensibilities: populism and nationalism shading into ethnocentrism and xenophobia. The case against the Haitians isn’t that they are welfare malingers or cat-eaters—or even that they are illegal immigrants who came here thanks to Joe Biden’s lax border enforcement, which most of them aren’t. The real issue is that by working overtime and investing in the community, they have made life more challenging for a reliable Trump-voting constituency: marginally employed white people on the dole.

I was kind of surprised and fascinated how at the VP debate Vance kept harping on "Haitians are driving up home prices in Springfield". Usually anti-immigrant rhetoric is around immigrants driving home prices *down*, usually by (supposedly) bringing poverty, crime, and corruption with them. This was in some ways "they're doing too well".

[Pyperkub]

Yeah, the last quote from the article appears to address that being the welfare queen grievance. It does have a lot to do with it being far easier to blame immigrants for everything, rather than look at root causes, especially given how it fits into pre-existing biases.

[LordMortis]

I was kind of surprised and fascinated how at the VP debate Vance kept harping on "Haitians are driving up home prices in Springfield". Usually anti-immigrant rhetoric is around immigrants driving home prices *down*, usually by (supposedly) bringing poverty, crime, and corruption with them. This was in some ways "they're doing too well".

But they're doing because they're here illegally and illegally taking all that government money that I can't get and so no one should get and it's causing inflation so I can't afford gas or groceries which are all three times the price as they were in 2020 when oil companies weren't shut down just for drilling and I could get a whole bag of candy for a nickel and people were willing to work instead of getting paid not to. People want the fulfilling life that come with work and that only comes from job providers.

[Zaxxon]

*legally

[TheMix]

* * Pretty sure LM was "playing the part", and does not actually believe nor endorse his statement.

[LordMortis]

* * Pretty sure LM was "playing the part", and does not actually believe nor endorse his statement.

Short of the candy for a nickel, it's the story around here and as of right now, it's the story that's being echoed in the political ads to reinforce the stories they tell themselves. Inflation, security (specially against immigrants), oil being shut down, and welfare people aren't working, with a tiny sprinkling of don't hurt the job creators. I'm really surprised at how much immigration security is on the lawn signs and TV ads. My border is with Canada and it's mostly across bridges with lakes that really aren't too friendly for those dirty rotten Canadians escaping from asylums.

(The They free transgender operations to incarcerated illegal immigrant murderers from we commercial just played on the Tiger game while I typed this)

[Daehawk]

Voting helps prevent unwanted presidencies.

[Victoria Raverna]

Trump insulted Detroit at Detroit Economic Club:

[LordMortis]

Read about it. I don't think I could bear to hear him talk about it. The Free Press said it was a long ramble. After he tried to get all the county's votes (mine included) thrown out in 2020 and then later tried to overturn our electoral vote, I can't conceive of why he'd be welcome here. Marion Illitch should not have let him speak in her venue. I won't be going back to any of her properties. If Chris cuts from the same cloth, I'll turn my back on the Wings and Tigers and Little Caesars as well. Open Secrets suggests he does not (stopping favoring the GOP in 2016 and then cut political donations nearly entirely after)

[LawBeefaroni]

I was kind of surprised and fascinated how at the VP debate Vance kept harping on "Haitians are driving up home prices in Springfield". Usually anti-immigrant rhetoric is around immigrants driving home prices *down*, usually by (supposedly) bringing poverty, crime, and corruption with them. This was in some ways "they're doing too well".

It's because high home prices are an issue on peoples' minds. So blame immigrants. The tenuous link is that demand drives up pricing. Probably throw in lies about how the federal government is buying them homes or something.

I had local conservative radio on and they (not sure if it was national syndication or not) were linking the Hatian "problem" to the successful slave revolt that lead to their independence. Essentially saying that "they" don't know how to run a country and its current state is a direct result. And why should we have to support their genetically based lawlessness. It was nonsensical, of couse, but also very dangerous in its obvious racial bigotry.

[Punisher]

I was kind of surprised and fascinated how at the VP debate Vance kept harping on "Haitians are driving up home prices in Springfield". Usually anti-immigrant rhetoric is around immigrants driving home prices *down*, usually by (supposedly) bringing poverty, crime, and corruption with them. This was in some ways "they're doing too well".

It's because high home prices are an issue on peoples' minds. So blame immigrants. The tenuous link is that demand drives up pricing. Probably throw in lies about how the federal government is buying them homes or something.

Minor correction.
I would say that if you are buying a home, high prices matter to you.
If you are selling a home, you want high prices.

[Unagi]

Most people that are selling a home are also buying a home.

[LordMortis]

I was kind of surprised and fascinated how at the VP debate Vance kept harping on "Haitians are driving up home prices in Springfield". Usually anti-immigrant rhetoric is around immigrants driving home prices *down*, usually by (supposedly) bringing poverty, crime, and corruption with them. This was in some ways "they're doing too well".

It's because high home prices are an issue on peoples' minds. So blame immigrants. The tenuous link is that demand drives up pricing. Probably throw in lies about how the federal government is buying them homes or something.

I had local conservative radio on and they (not sure if it was national syndication or not) were linking the Hatian "problem" to the successful slave revolt that lead to their independence. Essentially saying that "they" don't know how to run a country and its current state is a direct result. And why should we have to support their genetically based lawlessness. It was nonsensical, of couse, but also very dangerous in its obvious racial bigotry.

That's interesting, as the generic left spheres (the only ones I have left to listen to) suggest affordable housing is all being bought by fliippers, agents, and landlords, pricing out the people who need it. I can't see how that's true even if it confirms my bias, but my bias happened circa 2010 post circa the middle of the inflationary housing crash and failure to hold banks feet to the fire.

[Punisher]

Most people that are selling a home are also buying a home.

Sure, but I'd think that most people still wnt to sell high and buy low.
I know that our plan for when we decide to move.

[LawBeefaroni]

I was kind of surprised and fascinated how at the VP debate Vance kept harping on "Haitians are driving up home prices in Springfield". Usually anti-immigrant rhetoric is around immigrants driving home prices *down*, usually by (supposedly) bringing poverty, crime, and corruption with them. This was in some ways "they're doing too well".

It's because high home prices are an issue on peoples' minds. So blame immigrants. The tenuous link is that demand drives up pricing. Probably throw in lies about how the federal government is buying them homes or something.

Minor correction.
I would say that if you are buying a home, high prices matter to you.
If you are selling a home, you want high prices.

Sellers are usually buyers as well.

[Unagi]

Most people that are selling a home are also buying a home.

Sure, but I'd think that most people still wnt to sell high and buy low.
I know that our plan for when we decide to move.

Of course. That's a duh.

What you are ignoring is that your plan, to sell high and then buy low - will need to take place in the housing market over a short period of time (you don't sell your house when the market is high, and then wait years and years for the market to be low - No - you buy your next home right away -- in the same market).

So your plan has to actually be to move to a depressed market, if you want to come out truly ahead.

[LawBeefaroni]

Most people that are selling a home are also buying a home.

Sure, but I'd think that most people still wnt to sell high and buy low.
I know that our plan for when we decide to move.

That's thing though. If the market is high, you'll be selling high and buying high. If rates are high, you'll be getting out of a lower rate mortgage into a higher rate one.

Supply becomes frozen as homeowners are "trapped" in their current property.

Sure, you can play regional differences and if you pay cash rates don't matter as much. But most homeowners aren't in that position.

[Punisher]

Most people that are selling a home are also buying a home.

Sure, but I'd think that most people still wnt to sell high and buy low.
I know that our plan for when we decide to move.

Of course. That's a duh.

What you are ignoring is that your plan, to sell high and then buy low - will need to take place in the housing market over a short period of time (you don't sell your house when the market is high, and then wait years and years for the market to be low - No - you buy your next home right away -- in the same market).

So your plan has to actually be to move to a depressed market, if you want to come out truly ahead.

While not looking for a depressed market specifically, the places I've looked have had pretty decent buying prices.
Right now my home is worth around 630k-650k
I've looked at the 2 places on our radar. NC (pre-hurricane) and colorado. I've seen both have nice homes around 300k give or take. Some look much better than our existing home.
The plan is sell for over 600k (and by the time we decide to move it might be higher. About 10 years ago we had it appraised for around 350k. It's no guarantee, but we're crossing our fingers that the trend continues.
take away about 300k to pay off the existing mortgage and some miscellaneous things including moving costs. that should leave us with 330k-350k, based on now prices, to buy. Wether its a 350k house that we put 200k down and finance the rest or a 450k house that we put 300k down and finance the rest. or some other option.
That is me selling high and buying low by moving to an area that has good pricing. Originally my wife wanted to move to/near Vegas. I did some looking back then and found some very nice mcmansions for around 300k to 400k.
I fully believe it can be done, but it does depend on where your buying your new house. your not going to sell your 2 family house in newark, NJ and move to Beveraly Hill unless you also hit the jackpot at the same time.

[Unagi]

It's your age that is letting you select the areas you are talking about - and it's the location (job market) of your current home that drives the price.

You are on the very end game of it all. You will do fine by moving somewhere someone that is retired can live, but someone that needs a career cannot.


The more common 'nut to crack' is the person moving from one location (job) to another location (job) and how that person generally finds themselves in simular markets. So they sell High and, alas, buy High.

[Punisher]

Ok. That makes sense although I'm not sure if we are looking specifically to retire or not. My wife still has about 8 years before retiring and, as unlikely as it is, I'm still holding out hope that I get better physically and mentally enough to work. I'm less concerned about physical if I can go back to IT, especially if I can get back with my previous company since they are remote. If I have to go to a specific place then depending on how big it is they'll have to accommodate my wheelchair worst case scenario.
Realistically the brain issues are the major thing holding me back.

[Unagi]

There are a million different scenarios out there playing out. Remote work options make a lot of places way more ideal than otherwise would be.
Anyhow - I don't think we are disagreeing or arguing over anything here... just sorta coloring in different parts of the huge canvas that this whole topic really is.