Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[YellowKing]

You know that meme that says "YOU ARE HERE" pointing to the spot in football season where the Cowboys choke in the playoffs? We're at that point in the election when Democrats start panicking.

[waitingtoconnect]

It’s not too late to change candidates. The left always eats itself which is why we get men like Trump elected.

Only thing I’m seeing is the media trash bagging Kamala now or worse completely ignoring her and focusing solely on Trump

As I’ve said many time he is effectively still president thanks to the media .

[stessier]

Yeah, I really haven't been following the nitty-gritty details of what's been going on in too many states, but I would love to wake up the day after the election and be utterly and completely stunned at the overwhelming voter turnout everywhere for Harris/Walz.

You will be able to see the turnout numbers the next morning, but it will likely be weeks before you know who they turned out for.

[Kraken]

It's not the votes that count, it's who counts the votes.

[Smoove_B]

It's not the votes that count, it's who counts the votes.

And how quickly:

With just weeks left in the 2024 presidential contest, Donald Trump already has plans in place to aggressively challenge the election results if he fails to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris. According to four conservative attorneys and other sources who’ve spoken to the former president on this matter, Trump intends to declare — as soon as on election night — that the race is being “rigged” or “stolen” from him, by pointing to slow vote counts of mail-in ballots in crucial battleground states as his evidence for supposed Democratic shenanigans afoot.

“He has mentioned many times that this is what we have to watch out for on Election Day, because that’s where [the steal is] going to happen,” one of the Trump-aligned lawyers tells Rolling Stone. Trump, in these private conversations with close allies and advisers in recent months, has stressed that “you gotta call them out very early in the process, like that night, otherwise they can get away with it and cover their tracks,” this source adds.

But the reason that slow counts are expected in key states is precisely because Trump and his elite Republican allies in those states want it that way. As a result, Americans can expect a replay of what happened in 2020, when Trump lost.

So I guess whipping a core group into a frenzy while vote counts are delayed...what could that possibly do? I'm sure the MAGA folks will just sit around and grumble on social media.

[GreenGoo]

If you don't call them out, they get away with it. If you say things, then they can't get away with it. Q.E.D.

Stable genius.

Cops should start having public opinions on crime. There's no way they can get away with criming then.

[Daehawk]

I hope we can finally wash away all the MAGA idiots with a big jug of bleach and be done with this shit..so says Exlaxx.

[Jaymann]

These may be the longest 3 weeks of my life. I'm sticking to my plan of completely ignoring any results until the day after the election. It will be tempting to take a peek, but I am planning on a gaming binge until I pass out.

[Alefroth]

Good luck! I can't do it.

[LordMortis]

I'm prematurely old and tired. I'll watch on and off until about 20:00 and then fall asleep and then wake up in the middle of the night to pee and turn the TV off.

[Daehawk]

Everyone has their fallout shelters ready right?

[Kurth]

You know that meme that says "YOU ARE HERE" pointing to the spot in football season where the Cowboys choke in the playoffs? We're at that point in the election when Democrats start panicking.

From reading this NPR analysis, it feels like "panic" may be too strong a word, but significant concern is probably appropriate.

Former President Donald Trump once again appears to be in the driver’s seat in this presidential election.

When looking strictly at the polls, Trump now has the edge in two states and the other five most closely watched states are toss-ups. At the end of August, Vice President Harris had leads large enough in three of the seven states for them to lean in her direction, according to an NPR analysis of polling averages at the time.

Now, Trump has taken over the lead in an average of the polls in the seven swing states for the first time since Harris got in the race.

[LordMortis]

Wow, after all the Dems did for Arizona in the last 4 years they're moving red? Is that all immigration problems... that TFG has been blocking work on? How it could be a considered swing if that is the case is beyond me. How often do they vote blue in presidential elections?

Internet says twice in over 40 years, not much of a swing. That doesn't me count them out, but surely no math counts ever them in.

Now I'm even more scared. If Harris is looking at Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan as her path to victory and TFG is winning over Pennsylvania for reasons I can't comprehend,

[YellowKing]

From reading this NPR analysis, it feels like "panic" may be too strong a word, but significant concern is probably appropriate.

What specific polls are they averaging? They don't say. If they're including the absolute flood of right-wing cooked polls that came out last week, then their analysis is simply wrong.

[Kurth]

From reading this NPR analysis, it feels like "panic" may be too strong a word, but significant concern is probably appropriate.

What specific polls are they averaging? They don't say. If they're including the absolute flood of right-wing cooked polls that came out last week, then their analysis is simply wrong.

It's NPR. Why would they be including an "absolute flood of right-wing cooked polls"? That seems pretty off-brand for them. I found this:

For the state polling, NPR's analysis is based on an average of surveys aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and The Hill/DDHQ. If a candidate has a lead of 1 percentage point or more in an average of the two, then the state is marked as red or blue. If the margin is tighter than 1 point, then it is marked as a pure Toss-Up.

[YellowKing]

Mainstream media, regardless of their bias, are not immune to a good story. And the race being too close to call is a good story, whether or not it reflects reality. NPR's analysis is based on an aggregate average of two aggregate averages. There's no telling what polls are in there.

All I'm saying is people should stop freaking out about polls. They're snapshots, not predictors, and the polling averages are being HEAVILY manipulated right now. The real story lies in quality, tested, individual polls.

I'm not saying there hasn't been zero tightening in the race - there always is just before an election as people fall in line and start paying attention. But I'm saying in most of the quality individual polls I've looked at, Harris is maintaining the same stable lead she's had for weeks.

[Blackhawk]

Polls are also dependent on honest responses. I'm not sure that those responses are all that reliable these days.

[waitingtoconnect]

The issue is that Maga is a unified bloc and everyone else isn’t. And right now everyone else is not unified.

It’s insane trump is 75% likely to win the electoral college at this point. In the past few weeks he has just had embarrassment after embarrassment, sure his base don't care but the independants and swing voters will surely notice it, Harris on the other hand has been doing very well, she's been out doing interviews and coming across the opposite of what Trump has been trying to paint her as.

[LawBeefaroni]

Polymarket currently has Trump favored 61%-39%. If this continues, I'll probably put a decent bet on Harris. Not because I think she'll win but because I think it's a lot closer to 50/50 than 60/40.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidenti ... inner-2024



Seems crazy, no?

[ImLawBoy]

FWIW, people on Bluesky are saying that's a crypto betting space that tends conservative and is being manipulated by a few large players trying to skew results with big placements. No idea whether that's at all accurate/possible.

[LawBeefaroni]

FWIW, people on Bluesky are saying that's a crypto betting space that tends conservative and is being manipulated by a few large players trying to skew results with big placements. No idea whether that's at all accurate/possible.

I believe it. In fact I may literally be betting on it.

[Holman]

The issue is that Maga is a unified bloc and everyone else isn’t. And right now everyone else is not unified.

It’s insane trump is 75% likely to win the electoral college at this point. In the past few weeks he has just had embarrassment after embarrassment, sure his base don't care but the independants and swing voters will surely notice it, Harris on the other hand has been doing very well, she's been out doing interviews and coming across the opposite of what Trump has been trying to paint her as.

538 has it at something like 54-46 for Harris.

[Alefroth]

The issue is that Maga is a unified bloc and everyone else isn’t. And right now everyone else is not unified.

It’s insane trump is 75% likely to win the electoral college at this point. In the past few weeks he has just had embarrassment after embarrassment, sure his base don't care but the independants and swing voters will surely notice it, Harris on the other hand has been doing very well, she's been out doing interviews and coming across the opposite of what Trump has been trying to paint her as.

538 has it at something like 54-46 for Harris.

And the snake graph they have hasn't changed for weeks.

[Smoove_B]

Add North Carolina to the list of states experiencing an increase. Now imagine if they changed Election Day to something that happened over a few days (in person voting) and possibly included more weekend and evening hours to cover just about every type of working arrangement people might have.

But even failing that, being able to drop a ballot in the mail? Insanely helpful.

[stessier]

Add North Carolina to the list of states experiencing an increase. Now imagine if they changed Election Day to something that happened over a few days (in person voting) and possibly included more weekend and evening hours to cover just about every type of working arrangement people might have.

How is early voting not exactly what you describe?

[Smoove_B]

How is early voting not exactly what you describe?

Early voting is not universal in all 50 states and even for states that have "early" voting, there's quite a range for what "early" means.

[stessier]

How is early voting not exactly what you describe?

Early voting is not universal in all 50 states and even for states that have "early" voting, there's quite a range for what "early" means.

43 states have a period of at least 7 days (covering 91% of the population) and 4 states have bewteen 1-7 days (adding another 6% of the population). That's pretty close to universal (what's up with MS, AL, & NH??).

[Smoove_B]

You'd think voting rights (of anything) would be universal. "Pretty close" is shameful.

Alabama gives workers one hour (during their work day) to vote on Election Day. It's absurd.

[stessier]

You'd think voting rights (of anything) would be universal. "Pretty close" is shameful.

Alabama gives workers one hour (during their work day) to vote on Election Day. It's absurd.

I don't disagree, but saying there would be a major uptick if everyone got what you described as early voting seems unlikely given 97% of the population already has it.

[LordMortis]

Universally, it's still pretty new in Michigan and the GOP and Camber of Commerce and out of state bankrolls are still fighting to roll it back, even as they actively encourage their rank and file to utilize it. I think only nowm after less than decade of this, (6 years, I think[/i]?) are the voting populace starting to embrace it.

[Kurth]

This should be universal. No two ways about it.

Oregon has a vote by mail process. Instead of using traditional polling places where voters go to cast ballots on Election Day, a ballot is mailed to each registered voter. The ballot is then voted and returned to the county election office to be counted.

Ballots will be mailed any time between 14 to 18 days before the election. After it is voted, the ballot may be mailed or hand-delivered to the county election office. In order to be counted, A ballot is valid if received or postmarked by 8:00 pm on election day.

You can sign up to track your mail ballot on your Secretary of State website.

If you are a registered voter, your ballot will be automatically sent to you. You can call 1-866-ORE-VOTE (1-866-673-8683) or contact your county election office to make sure your vote was received.You will need to sign the return envelope of your ballot. Your signature will be matched with your voter registration card to verify your identity.

[gilraen]

We have the same process in Colorado. Except you still have an option of going to a polling place on election day (the kind with the voting booths), if you prefer. Either way, works great.

[disarm]

We'll having early voting statewide in CT for the first time starting next week. It's up to each town where that voting takes place, but I'll be heading to my town hall Tuesday afternoon to cast my vote.

If not for our new in-person early voting system, I would either have to drop off an absentee ballot, or rush to the polls after work and stand in line with all the other last-minute voters who couldn't get there sooner. I'm really looking forward to getting it done early and stress free!

[Alefroth]

The issue is that Maga is a unified bloc and everyone else isn’t. And right now everyone else is not unified.

It’s insane trump is 75% likely to win the electoral college at this point. In the past few weeks he has just had embarrassment after embarrassment, sure his base don't care but the independants and swing voters will surely notice it, Harris on the other hand has been doing very well, she's been out doing interviews and coming across the opposite of what Trump has been trying to paint her as.

538 has it at something like 54-46 for Harris.

538 now has it 51-49 for Trump, but the snake chart still show her crossing 270.

[LawBeefaroni]

Dirty fucking pool, even in 2024.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2024/1 ... gn-scheme/

An initiative called Progress 2028 that purports to be Kamala Harris’ liberal counter to the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 is actually run by a dark money network supporting former President Donald Trump.

Building America’s Future, the dark money group at the helm of the network, has steered money to a constellation of groups and initiatives boosting Trump’s agenda and spreading messaging aimed at chipping away voters from Harris. The dark money group reportedly received over $100 million in funding from billionaire Elon Musk, along with other donors, the New York Times recently reported.

[LordMortis]

Wow. And yeah, they'd never screw the people voting for them. Not after lying to them about... everything again and again. That any one trusts Musk enough to be part of any thing related to him is mind blowing.

[Jaymann]

The issue is that Maga is a unified bloc and everyone else isn’t. And right now everyone else is not unified.

It’s insane trump is 75% likely to win the electoral college at this point. In the past few weeks he has just had embarrassment after embarrassment, sure his base don't care but the independants and swing voters will surely notice it, Harris on the other hand has been doing very well, she's been out doing interviews and coming across the opposite of what Trump has been trying to paint her as.

538 has it at something like 54-46 for Harris.

538 now has it 51-49 for Trump, but the snake chart still show her crossing 270.

So shitting your pants, shitty dancing instead of answering questions, and doubling down on using the US military against political opponents moves the needle?

[YellowKing]

Purely anecdotal, but here in NC I went to early vote today at noon and was pleased to see the line was wrapped around the building. Decided to come back closer to 5pm when they closed. Line was still wrapped around the building. I'll go tomorrow and if I have to wait in line I will.

As for the percentage things, I find those completely meaningless. Nobody can say "Trump has a 53.2% chance of winning and Harris has a 46.8% chance of winning." That's complete nonsense. You can't predict the future with that level of certainty from snapshot polls, especially when those polls have no way of accurately measuring turnout.

[Holman]

Trump at a PA rally tonight opened with a 10-minute monologue about the golfer Arnold Palmer. It was all aimed at a concluding point that other golfers in the clubhouse showers saw that Palmer had a huge penis. For some reason.

[LordMortis]

For some reason.

He was weaving.