Trump 2024 Campaign - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly.

[waitingtoconnect]

Double condolences.

The worst part is the colossal lies and distortions that come out of the hosts mouths. Stuff that the Democrats and Kamala Harris have not said or done. It's like watching a stupid reality show where contestants say whatever they want to "win".

I can only assume it's a cult = literally the whole Trump phenomenon seems to be a colossal case of Fomo. Fear of missing out of being able to take part in the dictatorship.

[Kraken]

I’d be crouched in a corner with my head buried in my knees.

[waitingtoconnect]

At times I've retreated to my room or just stare blankly into space. In a way I'm double mourning, for the person I've lost and for this country's soul.

I can't stand Fox News or the conversations about why Kamala Harris is a threat to democracy. Or how every host has that weird smirk on their faces. You see it everywhere these days - from the UK, to France to Australia to here. That condescending you're going to hell smirk.

Given who died; and how much they meant to me; and that now this maniac and his minions are going to win the election, it's truly the worst timeline.

[Alefroth]

Hinchcliffe also joked about carving watermelons.

During his act, Hinchcliffe also pointed to a Black man in the audience and said, “All right, heck yeah. A black guy with a thing on his on his head. What the hell is that, a lampshade?” Hinchcliffe said. “Look at this guy. Oh, my goodness."

After a pause, Hinchliffe added, “I'm just kidding. That's one of my buddies. He had a Halloween party last night. We had fun. We carved watermelons together. It was awesome.”

[YellowKing]

You guys keep acting like Trump winning is a foregone conclusion. He's going to lose. I've seen nothing in early voting, demographics, fundraising, ground game, or anything else that leads me to believe he has the advantage going into election day.

[Scraper]

At times I've retreated to my room or just stare blankly into space. In a way I'm double mourning, for the person I've lost and for this country's soul.

I can't stand Fox News or the conversations about why Kamala Harris is a threat to democracy. Or how every host has that weird smirk on their faces. You see it everywhere these days - from the UK, to France to Australia to here. That condescending you're going to hell smirk.

Given who died; and how much they meant to me; and that now this maniac and his minions are going to win the election, it's truly the worst timeline.

I know what you mean by the smirk. The blond guy on Fox and Friends has always annoyed me to no end for his smirk. But perhaps the person with it down the most in this world is Putin.

[Scraper]

You guys keep acting like Trump winning is a foregone conclusion. He's going to lose. I've seen nothing in early voting, demographics, fundraising, ground game, or anything else that leads me to believe he has the advantage going into election day.

God I hope you're right. I've mostly been on the same train of thought as you for the past year, but now that's it's getting close to election day and Kamala isn't clearly ahead I am starting to worry.

[YellowKing]

I will say my only real concern is some disruption of the election process on Election Day. Shenanigans at polling places, violence, or some other sorts of disruption or intimidation intended to suppress the vote.

[LawBeefaroni]

You guys keep acting like Trump winning is a foregone conclusion. He's going to lose. I've seen nothing in early voting, demographics, fundraising, ground game, or anything else that leads me to believe he has the advantage going into election day.

Trump has 3 chances to win: Electoral College, election fraud, and civil war/coup.

Harris has one chance, the Electoral College. And on that I'm still not convinced it's not 50/50.


For all the effort the Dems have put into fundraising, ground game, and messaging the GOP has put more into chicanery, extortion, threats, and undermining the process.

[YellowKing]

I don't think election fraud or civil war/coup are anywhere close to likely.

And in a supposed toss up race, I have to wonder where Trump is getting the votes he didn't get in 2020. Especially when he has some portion of Republicans turning on him, and Harris is doing better in several key demographics than Biden did.

[Grifman]

Heather Cox Richardson nails it again:

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... er-27-2024

[Smoove_B]

And in a supposed toss up race, I have to wonder where Trump is getting the votes he didn't get in 2020.

I think we're severely underestimating just how many people are really, really comfortable with racism and supporting a party that openly espouses it. They're not waving flags or wearing red hats but will absolutely vote for him when the curtain closes and then pretend to not know what happened.

[hepcat]

There's a whole lot of people out there who miss being able to tell racist jokes, and feel this country is worse off since folks realized how wrong it was to find humor in punching down.

[Kurth]

Heather Cox Richardson nails it again:

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... er-27-2024

She closes with this:

In 1939, as about 18,000 American Nazis rallied inside Madison Square Garden, newspapers reported that a crowd of about 100,000 anti-Nazis gathered outside to protest. It took 1,700 police officers, the largest number of officers ever before detailed for a single event, to hold them back from storming the venue.

I don’t think we’re in 1939 any more . . .

[Smoove_B]

I don’t think we’re in 1939 any more . . .

You can't expect people to break away from NFL games on a Sunday to protest Nazis. Let's be realistic here.

EDIT: I don't mean to suggest it's on the backs of NFL fans. I'm just saying my impression is the average person seemingly doesn't care. Whatever is happening nationally (the election) in their minds doesn't affect them directly.

[YellowKing]

I think the true racists are already baked into his base. We heard the same argument when Harris entered the race and how she would never be able to beat Trump due to the "quiet racists," and yet she's led nationally nearly the entire race.

[Smoove_B]

I really want to believe this was the dying breaths of a man that knows he's about to lose. I really want to believe he did this to inspire his followers to be ready for violence following the election - similar to the 1/6 speeches, though significantly more overt.

[raydude]

Heather Cox Richardson nails it again:

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... er-27-2024

She closes with this:

In 1939, as about 18,000 American Nazis rallied inside Madison Square Garden, newspapers reported that a crowd of about 100,000 anti-Nazis gathered outside to protest. It took 1,700 police officers, the largest number of officers ever before detailed for a single event, to hold them back from storming the venue.

I don’t think we’re in 1939 any more . . .

I would point out that before she closed with the bit about the 1939 rally she pointed out the Latino and Latina recording artists who posted Harris' plans for Puerto Rico, the comments at Trump's rallies, and in Arianna Grande's case, that she voted for Harris. And by stating the numbers of followers in the millions, I believe part of her point in saying all that and closing with what happened in 1939 is that one does not need to be physically present to protest and have an impact.

[Smoove_B]

I also want to believe those endorsements last night will have an impact, but let's see how things look after the election. Perhaps my faith in humanity will grow a bit.

[Carpet_pissr]

You guys keep acting like Trump winning is a foregone conclusion. He's going to lose. I've seen nothing in early voting, demographics, fundraising, ground game, or anything else that leads me to believe he has the advantage going into election day.

And you keep acting like it's a done deal. I've seen nothing to indicate that. His support among blacks and latinos is up since the last election, apparently, and concerns about the current admin's handling of Israel/Gaza in a swing state might show up as well. A fart that didn't exist in the previous election, in a swing state, could change things.

Please ease my soul and show your work wrt your confidence. I would absolutely love to be where you are right now, mentally.

[LordMortis]

I don't think election fraud or civil war/coup are anywhere close to likely.

And in a supposed toss up race, I have to wonder where Trump is getting the votes he didn't get in 2020. Especially when he has some portion of Republicans turning on him, and Harris is doing better in several key demographics than Biden did.

It's not getting new votes as much as people staying home. Though from the look of it there is a shift in voting patterns of Hispanic and Arabic people toward TFG.

Women and the young. That's where Harris needs to shine and make sure they are voting. I think it's possible but at this point, from my tiny corner of the world, my faith isn't there. I've seen too much of the other side both from where I expect it and where I don't.

I need your invocation of juju to be right the invocation. Please be right.

[YellowKing]

Here's where I'm at mentally - YMMV.

- The stock market favors Harris. This has been a rock solid reliable indicator for past elections.
- 13 keys favor Harris (if you subscribe to Allan Lichtman's theory)
- Early voting trends favor high turnout which in turn favor Harris
- Young voter voting trends in early voting are looking very positive for Harris
- Trump may be slightly up with blacks and Latinos but he has lost ground with other key demographics compared to 2020 (not to mention Republicans!) And hell, he might have just lost all of the Puerto Rican vote.
- Historically, in a close race, turnout wins. What drives turnout? Ground game. What fuels ground game? Money. Harris has more employees, more money, and more bases of operations in swing states than Trump.
- Trump has been a drag on pretty much every candidate he's associated himself with. He's election poison, and has been since 2020. I believe it's highly unlikely in a change election, America is going to opt for the guy they've been voting against for the past 4 years.
- Abortion is on the ballot. Pro-choice turnout has outperformed expectations in every election since the Dobbs ruling.
- Voter enthusiasm and candidate favorability favor Harris - in close elections, these things matter

Are there unknowns? Sure. Could Trump still win? Sure. From a political science/historical perspective, however, I think it's strong advantage Harris and I'm not seeing anything to indicate otherwise other than deadlocked polls. And as we all know, polls don't vote, and polls don't predict.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. And I'll deal with that if the time comes. In the meantime, I'm not going to assume the worst based on no practical indicators other than coin toss polls.

As an aside, and this is purely anecdotal, I was in the heart of deep rural Trump country this weekend in the Gastonia/Charlotte suburbs area of NC. I was absolutely astounded at the number of Harris/Walz billboards and signs I saw. Sure, I saw plenty of Trump yard signs, but in terms of major advertising Harris was everywhere.

[Malificent]

You guys keep acting like Trump winning is a foregone conclusion. He's going to lose. I've seen nothing in early voting, demographics, fundraising, ground game, or anything else that leads me to believe he has the advantage going into election day.

And you keep acting like it's a done deal. I've seen nothing to indicate that. His support among blacks and latinos is up since the last election, apparently, and concerns about the current admin's handling of Israel/Gaza in a swing state might show up as well. A fart that didn't exist in the previous election, in a swing state, could change things.

Please ease my soul and show your work wrt your confidence. I would absolutely love to be where you are right now, mentally.

If we remember 2016 and how the odds and the polling favored Clinton, you can use that as a point that nobody knows anything. There ain't no certainty.

For me, as a once poker player, it's like being all-in pre-flop with a hand that is a slight favorite over my single opponent, like say, a pair of 9s vs AK offsuit. I'm 52% to win. Would I prefer a better hand? Sure, but I have the best odds. Fretting about it at this point is pointless. I just have to wait for the cards to be dealt.

Getting back to the election, I've done everything that I as an individual can do, so I'm going to stop worrying. If you're in a swing state and want to do something to try to gain control of the process, you could go volunteer to help the Get Out the Vote effort. But otherwise, you just have to be Zen and let things play out as they will. Nobody is going to be able to tell you for sure what's going to happen.

[LawBeefaroni]

Heather Cox Richardson nails it again:

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.c ... er-27-2024

She closes with this:

In 1939, as about 18,000 American Nazis rallied inside Madison Square Garden, newspapers reported that a crowd of about 100,000 anti-Nazis gathered outside to protest. It took 1,700 police officers, the largest number of officers ever before detailed for a single event, to hold them back from storming the venue.

I don’t think we’re in 1939 any more . . .

I would point out that before she closed with the bit about the 1939 rally she pointed out the Latino and Latina recording artists who posted Harris' plans for Puerto Rico, the comments at Trump's rallies, and in Arianna Grande's case, that she voted for Harris. And by stating the numbers of followers in the millions, I believe part of her point in saying all that and closing with what happened in 1939 is that one does not need to be physically present to protest and have an impact.

I agree that that was the point she was trying to make. I disagree with the point though.

Shouting someone down on Twitter only works on Twitter. Liking a political statement on Instagram only matters on Instagram. When the racists are holding rallies, marching, or doing their racist things, you have to confront them on their ground.

I will say that this wasn't expected to be an overtly racist rally so expecting significant protests isn't realistic or fair. But anyone who doesn't see it now is willfully and dangerously ignorant. Anyone who gives another dime to Tesla or Starlink or the UFC might as well go out and buy a dozen My Pillows too. They're complicit in silence. And grousing about it on Twitter doesn't count.

[hepcat]

Apparently, the choice for the "comic" came from Barron. Which means one of two things:

1) Donnie is throwing another family member under the bus to cover his ass.

2) Barron's exposure to a family full of narcissistic assholes with sociopath tendencies (including his gold diggin' mommy) has resulted in the creation of yet another waste of human flesh that will do nothing for humanity.

[YellowKing]

Or Barron just played 4D chess and in a brilliantly heroic move sabotaged his father's election chances.

[hepcat]

Ah, another stable genius.

[LawBeefaroni]

Ah, another stable genius.

The stable genius is Baron's father.

Wait, sorry, did I say "stable genius?" I meant stableboy.

[Zarathud]

Tony Hinchcliffe is deeply in bed with Joe Rogan. Trump lies, as always. He knew this guy, at least by reputation, as a conservative insult comic. Everything Tony did was on brand.

[LawBeefaroni]

I don't think election fraud or civil war/coup are anywhere close to likely.

AP:

Ballot drop boxes in Portland, Oregon, and neighboring Vancouver, Washington, were set on fire early Monday morning in what authorities believe are connected incidents just over a week out from Election Day.

An identical Volvo was spotted at both scenes, and the use of an "incendiary device" in Portland was "similar in nature" to what occurred in Vancouver, the cities' police departments said. Portland police described the act as targeted and intentional.

Three ballots were damaged in Portland while potentially “hundreds” were affected in Vancouver, local officials said.

Authorities have not ascribed a motive, but the incidents in Portland and Vancouver come as election officials across the country have said they are on high alert. For many localities, once-routine election business has become a security challenge, with some adding law enforcement and even drones and bulletproof vests out of concerns that extremists inspired by conspiracy theories could seek to disrupt voting or vote counting.

Earlier this month, the Vancouver bomb squad responded to reports of a "suspicious device" near a downtown ballot box, police said. The device was "safely removed" and the ballot box itself was "not compromised," according to a news release.

Vancouver is in Washington's 3rd Congressional District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is facing off against Donald Trump-backed Republican challenger Joe Kent in a highly competitive House race.

That is about as anti-constitution as it gets. Now imagine if the electoral college doesn't go their way.

[ImLawBoy]

Tony Hinchcliffe is deeply in bed with Joe Rogan. Trump lies, as always. He knew this guy, at least by reputation, as a conservative insult comic. Everything Tony did was on brand.

I read that Rogan had dissociated with him a while ago because his racist comedy. If even Rogan knows you're bad news . . . .

[LawBeefaroni]

Tony Hinchcliffe is deeply in bed with Joe Rogan. Trump lies, as always. He knew this guy, at least by reputation, as a conservative insult comic. Everything Tony did was on brand.

I read that Rogan had dissociated with him a while ago because his racist comedy. If even Rogan knows you're bad news . . . .

He was on Rogan's podcast 4-5 months ago. And in August, Rogan said it would be a good idea for Trump to hire Hinchcliffe to write one-liners for his speeches.

[Zarathud]

Hinchcliffe does his show at Rogan’s Comedy Mothership Club in Austin since 2023. It was one of Rogan’s crew who kicked him out of his club for being racist. Racist insults is his brand.

[Holman]

He was on Rogan's podcast 4-5 months ago. And in August, Rogan said it would be a good idea for Trump to hire Hinchcliffe to write one-liners for his speeches.

Imagine not only thinking this guy was funny, but actually promoting his brand at a national level.

I think even less of Joe Rogan now.

[Malificent]

He was on Rogan's podcast 4-5 months ago. And in August, Rogan said it would be a good idea for Trump to hire Hinchcliffe to write one-liners for his speeches.

Imagine not only thinking this guy was funny, but actually promoting his brand at a national level.

I think even less of Joe Rogan now.

Divide by zero error!

[YellowKing]

That is about as anti-constitution as it gets. Now imagine if the electoral college doesn't go their way.

There will be sporadic incidents by isolated individuals. I don't think it's likely you'll have some organized, massive block of MAGA extremists powerful enough to somehow change the outcome of the election if they're not happy with the result. Especially not against a government at the highest levels of security awareness.

[gbasden]

This is a full-on Nazi rally at MSG. Jesus Christ…

They definitely aren't trying to hide who they really are. Which makes my despair all the greater that 50% of the electorate is fine with this evil.

[Jaymann]

It is hilarious how the DonOld rally racist "joke" about Puerto Rico has galvanized PR voters and may just bring it home for Harris/Walz (who knew J-Lo was PR). Media is starved for a story so they have latched on to this. The DonOld campaign is reduced to: Democrats are mean because they call people at a Nazi rally Nazis.

[Smoove_B]

It is hilarious how the DonOld rally racist "joke" about Puerto Rico has galvanized PR voters and may just bring it home for Harris/Walz (who knew J-Lo was PR).

I want to believe. Let's check back in after the election to see how the voting actually went.

[$iljanus]

It is hilarious how the DonOld rally racist "joke" about Puerto Rico has galvanized PR voters and may just bring it home for Harris/Walz (who knew J-Lo was PR).

I want to believe. Let's check back in after the election to see how the voting actually went.

I hope that it still has relevance because it’s close to election day. If it was a few months ago the electorate would probably go on to the next shiny thing.