The Kamala Harris presidential candidacy

[Holman]

Voting Americans let Trump through the goddamn door to begin with. I have way less optimism when it comes to their intelligence in light of that fact.

A whole bunch of today's voting Americans were not yet of voting age eight years ago, and a lot them who were are now dead.

[hepcat]

Unfortunately, there are more than enough converts in the new group to fill the hole left by Darwinism culling the exceptionally stupid.

Sorry, I’m just feeling disappointed in this country right now. I fear I’m going to have to go back to 4 years of telling strangers I’m Canadian.

[Smoove_B]

A whole bunch of today's voting Americans were not yet of voting age eight years ago, and a lot them who were are now dead.

Do you want to know what really killed me inside? Seeing just how many of my fellow GenXers (not hepcat) voted for Trump in 2020. That's why I still wonder what's going to happen next week. I want to be hopeful, but it's been so damn hard.

[Kraken]

I guess I have more faith in the American people than most. I think, on average, collective "we" tend to do the right thing. It's not perfect (2016), but I don't believe most Americans are deplorables. I think a lot are misguided, I think a lot are far too apathetic, but I think most people are decent, hard-working folks just doing the best they can with what they've got.

What I struggle with is that the entire future course of the world could be destroyed by a few thousand misguided, apathetic, chucklefucks in Pennsylvania.

There are something like 600,000 Puerto Ricans in PA, and they are very very unhappy about their homeland being called a garbage island. That one tasteless joke could cost trump the state and the election.

Like you, I don't believe Americans will knowingly vote democracy out of existence. Most of those who vote for the fascists are more afraid of us election-stealing communists. I hope that a clear majority will see through that bullshit and vote for the good guys, but living in a highly educated blue state inevitably colors my opinion of people in general.

Voting Americans let Trump through the goddamn door to begin with. I have way less optimism when it comes to their intelligence in light of that fact.

That was due to a confluence of factors that don't pertain this time. Not saying it can't happen again, just that the reasons it happened last time aren't in play.

[hepcat]

I wholeheartedly disagree. Anger at a perceived injustice, and one person telling them it’s not them, it’s actually THOSE PEOPLE is still as relevant now as it was in 2016. It will always be relevant. I know it instills a sense of hope that Trump arose due to very unique circumstances during a very unique point in time; but the truth is, cult leaders like Trump are universal and timeless. They can make any time or circumstance their own.

[Kraken]

I was thinking more of Hillary Clinton. The GOP spent literally decades vilifying her, she ran a lackluster campaign, and most people thought trump was a joke. She was a uniquely vulnerable candidate (who nevertheless won the popular vote by a comfortable margin). The only characteristic that Harris shares with Hillary is her sex, and we're all keenly aware that trump isn't funny.

[YellowKing]

This is the first election Trump's been on the ballot since Jan. 6th, becoming a convicted felon, and Dobbs. Not to mention having multiple Republicans come out against him. Those facts alone make looking at his performance in 2016 and 2020 unreliable. A LOT has changed in 4 years, and very little of it in his favor.

[hepcat]

The thing is, he’s made those things into a rallying cry. He’s convinced people that the government is gunning for him. And that they’re next. These aren’t negatives because Trump is a bizzaro world politician.

[Kurth]

This is the first election Trump's been on the ballot since Jan. 6th, becoming a convicted felon, and Dobbs. Not to mention having multiple Republicans come out against him. Those facts alone make looking at his performance in 2016 and 2020 unreliable. A LOT has changed in 4 years, and very little of it in his favor.

The thing is, YK, all the reasons you've conveyed that you're bullish about a Harris victory - and not a particularly close one - are generally pretty compelling.

But they're offset by one huge counter: The polls say it's, at best, a coin flip slightly favoring Trump. As of right now, 538 is reporting that out of 1,000 simulations, Trump wins 516 times, Harris 482 and No winner (whatever that means) 2 times. That's Trump winning 52% of the time and Harris winning 48% of the time.

In order to accept your reasoning - which, again, is compelling - we have to accept that polling and analysis of what that polling data means is fundamentally wrong.

I sure hope that's the case!

[LordMortis]

This is the first election Trump's been on the ballot since Jan. 6th, becoming a convicted felon, and Dobbs. Not to mention having multiple Republicans come out against him. Those facts alone make looking at his performance in 2016 and 2020 unreliable. A LOT has changed in 4 years, and very little of it in his favor.

[smoove]I WANT TO BELIEVE[/smoove]

[YellowKing]

In order to accept your reasoning - which, again, is compelling - we have to accept that polling and analysis of what that polling data means is fundamentally wrong.

I'm not necessarily saying the polls (the good ones, a lot of them are total crap) are wrong (in the sense of being way outside the margin of error wrong). Is it a close race? Absolutely. But polls are not predictors, and polls can't tell us much about actual turnout.

I think people are way too hung up on the polling. In a truly tied race, I'd take Harris' campaign and expected turnout all day long and twice on Sunday.

[Unagi]

[LawBeefaroni]

DJT down 8% today after opening even lower. Garbage rally was not well received.

[YellowKing]

It's absolutely amazing Trump's ability to self-sabotage. He had the media falling all over themselves to report on Biden's "garbage" gaffe, and in an attempt to milk it only A) made himself look stupid and frail B) gave the Harris campaign an absolutely perfect meme to sum up his campaign and C) reminded everyone of the TWO garbage comments his campaign made (America is garbage and Puerto Rico is garbage).

I am still not entirely unconvinced someone high up on his campaign staff isn't intentionally sabotaging him.

[Zaxxon]

I am still not entirely unconvinced someone high up on his campaign staff isn't intentionally sabotaging him.

[Malificent]

Voting Americans let Trump through the goddamn door to begin with. I have way less optimism when it comes to their intelligence in light of that fact.

A whole bunch of today's voting Americans were not yet of voting age eight years ago, and a lot them who were are now dead.

https://www.vox.com/culture/381187/trum ... n-z-tiktok

How a bunch of 18 year old voters were only 10 when Trump's Access Hollywood tape was released - it's brand new to them. Another sign of how tiring this is - we've been dealing with Trump's crap for 8+ years now.

[stimpy]

The Harris camp really needs to have someone tell ol Uncle Joe to just go relax on the couch and watch some McCloud reruns for a week.

[YellowKing]

In Georgia, over 600,000 voters have already cast early votes that did not vote in the 2020 election. That is a mix of new residents, voters that were too young to vote in 2020, and voters who skipped the 2020 election. Furthermore, Georgia's already had 60% of their *total* vote count from the 2020 election cast early votes.

[hepcat]

The Harris camp really needs to have someone tell ol Uncle Joe to just go relax on the couch and watch some McCloud reruns for a week.

Have him take grandpa Donnie with him.

[waitingtoconnect]

It's absolutely amazing Trump's ability to self-sabotage. He had the media falling all over themselves to report on Biden's "garbage" gaffe, and in an attempt to milk it only A) made himself look stupid and frail B) gave the Harris campaign an absolutely perfect meme to sum up his campaign and C) reminded everyone of the TWO garbage comments his campaign made (America is garbage and Puerto Rico is garbage).

I am still not entirely unconvinced someone high up on his campaign staff isn't intentionally sabotaging him.

Those who are seeing these reports have already made up their minds about Trump.

At my house right now with family none of these comments are even getting through the Fox News and right wing news screen. Biden called Trump supporters garbage all on his own for example.

[LawBeefaroni]

What about the current economic climate would make casual voters break for Harris?

Gas prices dropping below $3 a gallon. Twice as many jobs added in October as expected. Record stock market highs. Consumer confidence is at the highest level in 3 years.

Not that casual voters will pay attention to jobs reports but Friday's is going to be dismal. I have always believed that the reports are hand waving and PR but Friday will show the effects of the hurricanes, mass layoffs, and two major strikes.

And there it is....


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/us-jobs ... -2024.html

-Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000.

-Revisions lowered previously reported job creation totals by 112,000 for August and September combined. [my favorite part: downward revisions of past "blockbuster" reports]

Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020 as the impacts of storms in the Southeast and a significant labor impasse dented the employment picture.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. In what had already been expected to be a downbeat report, October posted the smallest gain since December 2020.

[Carpet_pissr]

In Georgia, over 600,000 voters have already cast early votes that did not vote in the 2020 election. That is a mix of new residents, voters that were too young to vote in 2020, and voters who skipped the 2020 election. Furthermore, Georgia's already had 60% of their *total* vote count from the 2020 election cast early votes.

Please keep injecting that sweet, sweet hopium into my mental veins, bro. I SERIOUSLY need this.

[Carpet_pissr]

The Harris camp really needs to have someone tell ol Uncle Joe to just go relax on the couch and watch some McCloud reruns for a week.

I bet they have, but we have already seen how he reacts to that kind of "you should do this for the good of X". He definitely still has some pride, and while he absolutely made the right choices for the good of the country (both to run in 2020, and drop out in 2024), you can see signs of defiance (totally understandable IMO).

[YellowKing]

Please keep injecting that sweet, sweet hopium into my mental veins, bro. I SERIOUSLY need this.

I'd say my confidence is at about 90% right now. That's based on a mix of A+ polls, early voting data, and multiple historical precedents.

[Carpet_pissr]

Please keep injecting that sweet, sweet hopium into my mental veins, bro. I SERIOUSLY need this.

I'd say my confidence is at about 90% right now. That's based on a mix of A+ polls, early voting data, and multiple historical precedents.

[Jaymann]

Please keep injecting that sweet, sweet hopium into my mental veins, bro. I SERIOUSLY need this.

I'd say my confidence is at about 90% right now. That's based on a mix of A+ polls, early voting data, and multiple historical precedents.

Compare this to the days just before Biden stepped down. Media only focused on his age and it looked like DonOld was inevitable. They laughed when I called it for Harris a week after Biden endorsed her. Who's laughing now?

[LawBeefaroni]

Please keep injecting that sweet, sweet hopium into my mental veins, bro. I SERIOUSLY need this.

I'd say my confidence is at about 90% right now. That's based on a mix of A+ polls, early voting data, and multiple historical precedents.

Compare this to the days just before Biden stepped down. Media only focused on his age and it looked like DonOld was inevitable. They laughed when I called it for Harris a week after Biden endorsed her. Who's laughing now?

[YellowKing]

Yeah, it ain't won yet. I'm confident but I'm not celebrating until the election is certified.

[Skinypupy]

Yeah, it ain't won yet. I'm confident but I'm not celebrating until the election is certified.

I’m getting there as well. Will never be fully confident until it’s done, because Americans are profoundly stupid, uninformed, and/or tribalistic.

However, the early indicators (percentage of women voters, number of new voters, huge turnout, etc) combined with Trump’s daily foot-shooting has me feeling better than I did before.

[LawBeefaroni]

I just got a haircut. My hair stylist, who is 27 or so, said she wants a woman president but probably won't vote. Her friends think they were better off financially under Trump but probably won't vote either. So it's a wash.

Reasons for not voting: doesn't matter (Chicago/IL will go Harris), it's how they find you for jury duty, too many down ballot punches (75 judges I think, etc).

[YellowKing]

I'd say some Americans are stupid. Over the long run, as a nation, they tend to do the right thing when it counts.

[LordMortis]

I just got a haircut. My hair stylist, who is 27 or so, said she wants a woman president but probably won't vote. Her friends think they were better off financially under Trump but probably won't vote either. So it's a wash.

Reasons for not voting: doesn't matter (Chicago/IL will go Harris), it's how they find you for jury duty, too many down ballot punches (75 judges I think, etc).

Are you still Jury duty for voting? They switched that residence with a state ID (license) here a long time ago.

https://www.courts.michigan.gov/4a4dbc/ ... vicebw.pdf

To begin, the Secretary of State sends a random list of
licensed drivers and people with state IDs to the jury board.
Potential jurors receive a questionnaire and jury summons by
mail. Those who qualify become part of the jury pool.

I'm still trying to understand the better off financially under TFG. I hear it often and have yet to see one single piece of supporting evidence.

[Kraken]

Yeah, it ain't won yet. I'm confident but I'm not celebrating until the election is certified.

I’m getting there as well. Will never be fully confident until it’s done, because Americans are profoundly stupid, uninformed, and/or tribalistic.

However, the early indicators (percentage of women voters, number of new voters, huge turnout, etc) combined with Trump’s daily foot-shooting has me feeling better than I did before.

We should get a decent indication before bedtime on the 5th. If the Red Mirage happens as usual (and trump declares victory based on it, as expected) then we are in for a long slog while the Blue Tide slowly comes in. If more Republicans than usual are voting early, there will be fewer of them on election day. If the Red Mirage is small or doesn't happen at all, then we can be pretty confident that the Blue Tide will lift all boats.

[Blackhawk]

I'd say some Americans are stupid. Over the long run, as a nation, they tend to do the right thing when it counts.

No doubt. The problem is that it's become a very effective political strategy to manipulate those people by confusing them as to what qualifies as 'right.' Many Trump voters - those who only hear about politics from far-right sources - likely genuinely believe that they're doing the right thing.

[ImLawBoy]

too many down ballot punches (75 judges I think, etc).

The judge retention ballots around here are ridiculous. You can always skip it, though. Personally, I tend to check the recommendations of organizations like Chicago Bar Association and Illinois State Bar Association, but that's a lot to ask of someone who would rather skip voting altogether than fill out so many bubbles.

[raydude]

I'd say some Americans are stupid. Over the long run, as a nation, they tend to do the right thing when it counts.

No doubt. The problem is that it's become a very effective political strategy to manipulate those people by confusing them as to what qualifies as 'right.' Many Trump voters - those who only hear about politics from far-right sources - likely genuinely believe that they're doing the right thing.

Somebody needs to make the equivalent of Are we the Baddies? but for MAGA. Just show two reasonable MAGA people with one person realizing the absurdity of their beliefs like, "why are we saying that those people eat pets? Like, have you seen TikToks of actual Hatians showing how to eat pets?"

[LordMortis]

too many down ballot punches (75 judges I think, etc).

The judge retention ballots around here are ridiculous. You can always skip it, though. Personally, I tend to check the recommendations of organizations like Chicago Bar Association and Illinois State Bar Association, but that's a lot to ask of someone who would rather skip voting altogether than fill out so many bubbles.

Now that I can do this from my home at my leisure, I actually try to research judges and if I can, I will vote. Otherwise I leave them blank. I'm not sure how many "non partisan" positions had to be filled but it was no small amount. Not a ridiculous amount but not like just 6 or 7 or less. It took a bit of time to attempt my diligence.

[LawBeefaroni]

I just got a haircut. My hair stylist, who is 27 or so, said she wants a woman president but probably won't vote. Her friends think they were better off financially under Trump but probably won't vote either. So it's a wash.

Reasons for not voting: doesn't matter (Chicago/IL will go Harris), it's how they find you for jury duty, too many down ballot punches (75 judges I think, etc).

Are you still Jury duty for voting? They switched that residence with a state ID (license) here a long time ago.

https://www.courts.michigan.gov/4a4dbc/ ... vicebw.pdf

To begin, the Secretary of State sends a random list of
licensed drivers and people with state IDs to the jury board.
Potential jurors receive a questionnaire and jury summons by
mail. Those who qualify become part of the jury pool.

I'm still trying to understand the better off financially under TFG. I hear it often and have yet to see one single piece of supporting evidence.

The jury thing is just their rationale for not voting. I don't think it's accurate but it's a common refrain.

Same with being better off. People just feel it's thr case even if there is no solid evidence. Even despite evidence to the contrary in many cases.

[Grifman]

Could be decisive if it reflects reality:

[LordMortis]

October surprise?