The Kamala Harris presidential candidacy

[LawBeefaroni]

FWIW, here's my sample ballot.

Note that the unopposed judges (71-91) are not the same as the retention judges (201-356).

[Isgrimnur]

retention judges

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[gilraen]

FWIW, here's my sample ballot.

Holy crap, I thought our 2-page ballot was bad.

[ImLawBoy]

That's why voting by mail is a game changer for me in Chicago. It could take a long time to vote not because too many people were in line, but because it took too long to mark up the entire freaking ballot.

[DOS=HIGH]

The Judge retention voting takes up a full page in Arizona, and I'd never paid much attention to it. That changed this year when I was going over the ballot initiatives. One of the initiatives is to make judges a lifetime appointment unless they are convicted of a felony or file bankruptcy or mortgage foreclosure. Any coincidence this initiative showed up the year after the Arizona Supreme Court voted that the Abortion law passed 50 years before statehood is valid? Probably nothing to do with Arizona becoming more of a toss up in State elected Officials either. I doubt this initiative will pass, but I'm curious to see if the two Supreme Court judges on the ballot this year will be retained.

Note: All the current Arizona Supreme Court Justices were appointed by Republican Governors.

[Grifman]

She needed to win by 4% to offset the EC disadvantage.

[LawBeefaroni]

She needed to win by 4% to offset the EC disadvantage.

Likely voters, n=1,297, +/- 3.5% margin of error.

The gender gap nationally has been cut by more than half. A 15-point gender gap now exists compared with 34 points in early October. Harris (47%) has carved into Trump's advantage (51%) among men. Now, only 4 points separate the two among these voters. Trump previously had a 16-point advantage among men. While Harris (55%) maintains a double-digit [11 point] lead over Trump (44%) among women, her lead has decreased from 18 points.

I guess women are going to have to save the world yet again.

[LordMortis]

I guess women are going to have to save the world yet again.

So much so. Women and hopefully enough young men.

[Blackhawk]

I guess women are going to have to save the world yet again.

So much so. Women and hopefully enough young men.

Women and children first.

[Unagi]

I guess women are going to have to save the world yet again.

So much so. Women and hopefully enough young men.

Women and children first.

That has the makings of a great political cartoon for long lines at voting locations.

[Grifman]

More good news for Harris and bad news for Trump in Kansas:

[Kraken]

I won’t pretend to know better than the author of that opinion piece, but The Economist slants distinctly right.

The Economist just endorsed Kamala Harris

Didn't expect that, but it makes sense given that they're, you know -- economists. Trump's stated policy agenda would be a disaster while Biden's was a huge success.

[Grifman]

[waitingtoconnect]

More good news for Harris and bad news for Trump in Kansas:

Who'd have thought telling women and minorities to accept they'd need to return to pre-1970s levels of rights that you'd not lose votes. Its not illegal immigrants voting early and often like they claim.

[LawBeefaroni]

Polls failed again. Exit polls were laughable.

[Holman]

There will be a lot of finger-pointing and claims of what should have done differently, but the fact is that she ran a superb campaign.

That Trump is who he is and has behaved as he has and *still* got elected means that there is nothing Harris could have done to prevent it. Trump offered hate and grievance, and America went for it. That's who we are, apparently.

[YellowKing]

Yeah if she couldn't beat him with that campaign, I feel like a Trump victory was inevitable. She had one of the best ground games ever organized in PA, and still lost the state.

Of course, I'm already seeing the finger-pointing that she wasn't far left enough, and that's why she lost. Which seems like an absolutely bonkers conclusion to draw given the miniscule numbers Stein drew.

[LordMortis]

There's plenty of finger pointing to go around and it is not at Harris or Biden or the Harris campaign which was not too far left or too far right nor too centrist or not centrist enough.

I probably shouldn't be on OO today because I've got a lot of negative emotion running through me right now and no good way to vent it. Video games and maybe jog on a bum knee so I'll be tired enough to sleep tonight and somehow be numb to it all tomorrow.

I'm sure I'll be back in an hour.

[Daehawk]

Well now we can be officially recognized as a deplorable country full of deplorables to us and the rest of the world. Let the face eatings begin in earnest.

[Kurth]

Yeah if she couldn't beat him with that campaign, I feel like a Trump victory was inevitable. She had one of the best ground games ever organized in PA, and still lost the state.

Of course, I'm already seeing the finger-pointing that she wasn't far left enough, and that's why she lost. Which seems like an absolutely bonkers conclusion to draw given the miniscule numbers Stein drew.

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

I mean, the Dems have nothing to blame but themselves for this disaster. Sure, Harris did an admirable job running for President . . . In the 16 weeks she was actually running for President.

Let’s not forget how we got here. I love Joe Biden, but his legacy is forever tarnished by this Trump second term. Biden and the Democratic Party that he led should have had one goal and one goal only after he won in 2020: That goal was to make sure Trump did not return to power. It was not and never should have been to get Joe Biden reelected to a second term. We are paying the price for that terrible mistake right now.

[Carpet_pissr]

I guess women are going to have to save the world yet again.

So much so. Women and hopefully enough young men.

Those were the two demos that surprised (for Trump).

[YellowKing]

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

No, I'm saying Harris did all she could. We can second guess whether Biden should or should not have ran in the first place and never really know the answer. It could have been that given inflation being the primary driver, no candidate could have beat Trump. People for some reason think the guy that bankrupts every business he touches is a master of economics.

[Punisher]

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

No, I'm saying Harris did all she could. We can second guess whether Biden should or should not have ran in the first place and never really know the answer. It could have been that given inflation being the primary driver, no candidate could have beat Trump. People for some reason think the guy that bankrupts every business he touches is a master of economics.

The obvious solution is for America to file for bankruptcy!

[$iljanus]

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

No, I'm saying Harris did all she could. We can second guess whether Biden should or should not have ran in the first place and never really know the answer. It could have been that given inflation being the primary driver, no candidate could have beat Trump. People for some reason think the guy that bankrupts every business he touches is a master of economics.

The obvious solution is for America to file for bankruptcy!

I for one welcome our Deutsche Bank masters!

[raydude]

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

No, I'm saying Harris did all she could. We can second guess whether Biden should or should not have ran in the first place and never really know the answer. It could have been that given inflation being the primary driver, no candidate could have beat Trump. People for some reason think the guy that bankrupts every business he touches is a master of economics.

The obvious solution is for America to file for bankruptcy!

I for one welcome our Deutsche Bank masters!

Speaking of, weren't the foreign banks supposed to collect debts due to them by Trump? Whatever happened to that? I assume they were only waiting for him to go out of office before demanding their money. Whatever happened to good old fashioned loan enforcement?

[Grifman]

Yeah if she couldn't beat him with that campaign, I feel like a Trump victory was inevitable. She had one of the best ground games ever organized in PA, and still lost the state.

Of course, I'm already seeing the finger-pointing that she wasn't far left enough, and that's why she lost. Which seems like an absolutely bonkers conclusion to draw given the miniscule numbers Stein drew.

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

I mean, the Dems have nothing to blame but themselves for this disaster. Sure, Harris did an admirable job running for President . . . In the 16 weeks she was actually running for President.

Let’s not forget how we got here. I love Joe Biden, but his legacy is forever tarnished by this Trump second term. Biden and the Democratic Party that he led should have had one goal and one goal only after he won in 2020: That goal was to make sure Trump did not return to power. It was not and never should have been to get Joe Biden reelected to a second term. We are paying the price for that terrible mistake right now.

I don't think it made any difference. It was fewer weeks for her to get hammered by Trump on this issue or that. What real difference do you think it would have made?

[Blackhawk]

It would have given her more time to develop a platform and policies. It would have eliminated early disillusionment. It would have avoided the drama that turned a lot of people away and made the Democrats look like fools.

[hepcat]

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

No, I'm saying Harris did all she could. We can second guess whether Biden should or should not have ran in the first place and never really know the answer. It could have been that given inflation being the primary driver, no candidate could have beat Trump. People for some reason think the guy that bankrupts every business he touches is a master of economics.

The obvious solution is for America to file for bankruptcy!

Considering that Trump has declared bankruptcy 6 times, we have the right leader for it.

[msteelers]

I really don't think the shortened campaign hurt Harris. Campaigns are way too long here in the US as it is. I thought the short campaign was refreshing, and they were still able to outline her platform effectively. The problem is good policy doesn't make for good headlines or TikToks, and Trump as usual sucked up all the oxygen in the room with his crazy. That wouldn't have changed had Harris had 2+ years to campaign.

I could see how the party handing the nomination to Harris could turn some democrats off, but let's be honest. That's not the issue here.

Voters wanted Trump. For some unexplainable reason, they see him as an expert on the economy. They think he's a smart businessman. They think he's a strongman that people respect. And that's what the American people wanted.

[Kurth]

Yeah if she couldn't beat him with that campaign, I feel like a Trump victory was inevitable. She had one of the best ground games ever organized in PA, and still lost the state.

Of course, I'm already seeing the finger-pointing that she wasn't far left enough, and that's why she lost. Which seems like an absolutely bonkers conclusion to draw given the miniscule numbers Stein drew.

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

I mean, the Dems have nothing to blame but themselves for this disaster. Sure, Harris did an admirable job running for President . . . In the 16 weeks she was actually running for President.

Let’s not forget how we got here. I love Joe Biden, but his legacy is forever tarnished by this Trump second term. Biden and the Democratic Party that he led should have had one goal and one goal only after he won in 2020: That goal was to make sure Trump did not return to power. It was not and never should have been to get Joe Biden reelected to a second term. We are paying the price for that terrible mistake right now.

I don't think it made any difference. It was fewer weeks for her to get hammered by Trump on this issue or that. What real difference do you think it would have made?

Lots. Once Biden was elected, the Democrats' first and chief priority should have been finding a successor. Instead, they seemed to do nothing to put young, inspiring Dem leaders forward. I'm not saying it was necessarily going to be Kamala (not my first choice), but if they thought she had potential, they sure as hell shouldn't have put her in the witness protection program for 4 years. She was nearly invisible to most Americans.

So, yeah, dumping Biden with 16 weeks to go and foisting Kamala on the electorate without a primary (I still don't think there was time) was a recipe for disaster based on malpractice-level poor planning and lack of strategic vision. That's all on Joe. The buck stops with him. So, yeah, "Let's Go, Brandon."

[El Guapo]

Yeah if she couldn't beat him with that campaign, I feel like a Trump victory was inevitable. She had one of the best ground games ever organized in PA, and still lost the state.

Of course, I'm already seeing the finger-pointing that she wasn't far left enough, and that's why she lost. Which seems like an absolutely bonkers conclusion to draw given the miniscule numbers Stein drew.

Wait. Hold up. I’m not blaming Harris, but you can’t be suggesting that the Dems did all they could and operated a smoothly running machine this election. Right?

I mean, the Dems have nothing to blame but themselves for this disaster. Sure, Harris did an admirable job running for President . . . In the 16 weeks she was actually running for President.

Let’s not forget how we got here. I love Joe Biden, but his legacy is forever tarnished by this Trump second term. Biden and the Democratic Party that he led should have had one goal and one goal only after he won in 2020: That goal was to make sure Trump did not return to power. It was not and never should have been to get Joe Biden reelected to a second term. We are paying the price for that terrible mistake right now.

I don't think it made any difference. It was fewer weeks for her to get hammered by Trump on this issue or that. What real difference do you think it would have made?

Lots. Once Biden was elected, the Democrats' first and chief priority should have been finding a successor. Instead, they seemed to do nothing to put young, inspiring Dem leaders forward. I'm not saying it was necessarily going to be Kamala (not my first choice), but if they thought she had potential, they sure as hell shouldn't have put her in the witness protection program for 4 years. She was nearly invisible to most Americans.

So, yeah, dumping Biden with 16 weeks to go and foisting Kamala on the electorate without a primary (I still don't think there was time) was a recipe for disaster based on malpractice-level poor planning and lack of strategic vision. That's all on Joe. The buck stops with him. So, yeah, "Let's Go, Brandon."

I dunno. I think it's fair to say that Biden should not have run for a second term. That said, however, the big downside if he hadn't would be that the party would have needed to have what would almost certainly have been a long and contentious primary with all of the candidates sniping at each other and having to take positions to placate the party base which would have been unpopular in the general election. The big upside of how it played out was that Kamala could run straight to the center, which she did to great success - shot way up in the polls.

Really I think the biggest mistake was not fast tracking a prosecution of Trump based on January 6th. Who knows how everything played out behind the scenes, but it sure looks like Garland and others spent way too long on the kumbaya "let's just move forwards" approach. Maybe SCOTUS never would have allowed a prosecution to go forward anyway, but delays from Trump-friendly courts were extremely predictable. Trump should have been crushed when he was weak, and we should never have gotten to this point to begin with.

The other question is whether enough leaning on McConnell in January 2021 could have gotten him on board with Trump's impeachment then. McConnell has the lion's share of the blame here, beyond Trump himself.

[Alefroth]

I really don't think the shortened campaign hurt Harris. Campaigns are way too long here in the US as it is. I thought the short campaign was refreshing, and they were still able to outline her platform effectively. The problem is good policy doesn't make for good headlines or TikToks, and Trump as usual sucked up all the oxygen in the room with his crazy. That wouldn't have changed had Harris had 2+ years to campaign.

I could see how the party handing the nomination to Harris could turn some democrats off, but let's be honest. That's not the issue here.

Voters wanted Trump. For some unexplainable reason, they see him as an expert on the economy. They think he's a smart businessman. They think he's a strongman that people respect. And that's what the American people wanted.

Trump was eminently beatable if the Democrats had showed up like they did for Biden.

[Kurth]

I really don't think the shortened campaign hurt Harris. Campaigns are way too long here in the US as it is. I thought the short campaign was refreshing, and they were still able to outline her platform effectively. The problem is good policy doesn't make for good headlines or TikToks, and Trump as usual sucked up all the oxygen in the room with his crazy. That wouldn't have changed had Harris had 2+ years to campaign.

I could see how the party handing the nomination to Harris could turn some democrats off, but let's be honest. That's not the issue here.

Voters wanted Trump. For some unexplainable reason, they see him as an expert on the economy. They think he's a smart businessman. They think he's a strongman that people respect. And that's what the American people wanted.

Trump was eminently beatable if the Democrats had showed up like they did for Biden.

Yes. And this suggests strongly that the problem lay with the Democrats’ process. Trump was remarkably consistent. Yeah, he did a little better here and there, but so much of that came from the lack of Democratic turnout. So if the problem is with the Democrats, what stands out about this election? Maybe that the Dems were so delusion about Biden that they didn’t realize they needed to switch horses until he had imploded on the debate stage.

[waitingtoconnect]

FWIW, here's my sample ballot.

Note that the unopposed judges (71-91) are not the same as the retention judges (201-356).