Iran

[El Guapo]

This morning’s newsletter from the NYT, “What Iran Wants,” provides some analysis on the motivations and results of Iran’s proxy wars: Spoiler - Iran is winning.

Iran has emerged as the chief architect in multiple conflicts strafing the Middle East, from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.

It trained and helped arm the Iraqi militias that killed three U.S. service members with a drone in Jordan this weekend. It supplied Hamas and Hezbollah in their clashes with Israel. It launched missiles at anti-Iranian militants inside Pakistan in response to the bombing of a local police station in December. And it has helped Houthi warriors in Yemen attack container ships in the Red Sea to protest the war in Gaza. All of which, taken together, threaten a wider war . . .

To achieve regional hegemony and safeguard its theocracy, Iran has responded on three fronts: military, diplomatic and economic. Those efforts have become more assertive in the past year, especially since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas.

Militarily, Iran’s government wants to project strength without drawing fire on its own territory, which could jeopardize its already tenuous popular support. Its strategy has been to build up regional proxy forces so that it rarely launches attacks from its own soil.

Those forces include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and a handful of Shiite militias in Iraq. Each has its own goals, but all are in agreement with Iran about combating Western troops in the region and diminishing Israel’s standing. The United States designates each of them as a foreign terrorist organization. Since the October attack on Israel, these groups have targeted Israel’s northern front, U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria, U.S. warships and international cargo ships in the Red Sea . . .

Iran’s foreign policy is designed to try to reverse its image as an isolated nation — particularly after the U.S. intensified sanctions in 2018. Even before Oct. 7, it was cultivating its Arab neighbors as well as Russia and China. Early in 2023, for the first time in decades, Iran normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, repairing a rift between the two countries in a deal brokered by China . . .

Economically, Iran has had far more limited success dodging U.S. sanctions, leaving many Iranians poorer and more resentful of the government. The regime faced widespread protests in 2022 and 2023 over hijab mandates, and the nation’s supreme leader has been urging women to vote in upcoming elections, signaling his concern that the government has antagonized them . . .

“There’s a good case to be made that Iran is a major winner from this conflict,” said Dalia Dassa Kaye, a political scientist at the Burkle Center for International Relations at the University of California, Los Angeles. “The war is in many ways boosting Iranians’ domestic, regional and global situation.”

She added, “So far, Iran has been able to gain all these benefits without paying direct costs.”

The Biden administration needs to find a way to end this. Iran cannot be allowed to sit back and direct its proxies to wreak havoc in the Middle East and threaten U.S. interests and regional stability. We need to act decisively to send a message to Tehran that it’s going to start paying some “direct costs” and that those costs will increase significantly the longer Iran continues to play this proxy game.

I agree, but part of the challenge is that the best way to end all of this is for Iranians to overthrow the government and replace it with a democratic government. That's both what most Iranians seem to want and also best for the U.S. and the region. And responding militarily to Iran, and most especially striking inside Iran, is at least risky in terms of getting to that outcome.

[hepcat]

I know that there has been a lot of unrest in Iran surrounding the religious extremism of the government, but does that equate to a taste for democracy? Or a favorable impression of America? That's an honest question. I don't know.

Also, put aside the current situation in Israel in discussing this. I'm sure our support for Israel is not helping our standing any.

[LawBeefaroni]

Cyberwarfare. Predatory Sparrow has had some success there.

Plus the Stuxnet attack back in 2010.

[El Guapo]

I know that there has been a lot of unrest in Iran surrounding the religious extremism of the government, but does that equate to a taste for democracy? Or a favorable impression of America? That's an honest question. I don't know.

Also, put aside the current situation in Israel in discussing this. I'm sure our support for Israel is not helping our standing any.

There have been several mass pro-democracy anti-government protests in Iran over the past couple decades. Plus native democracy movements in Iran date way back to the late 19th century (and for that matter the current Iranian government has a democratic structure, although it's a mostly pretend one in that the theocrats get to effectively make most of the choices that matter).

You will also sometimes see U.S. and Israeli flags at Iranian protests. Judging the exact feelings of Iranians is difficult given, you know, the lack of unbiased polling of Iranians, BUT you also have to bear in mind that there's a strong "enemy of my enemy" effect in play. Basically the Iranian government has been doing the "death to U.S. (and Israel)" since its creation, so if you dislike the Iranian government (as most Iranians seem to) you're probably more likely to have at least somewhat favorable views of the U.S.

All of this adds up to the fact that popular movement that is able to overthrow the current theocratic government of Iran is vastly more likely to be closer to the U.S. and to be vastly more responsible on the world stage (and, having overthrown an Islamist fundamentalist government, is unlikely to be friendly to groups like Hezbollah and Hamas).

[Holman]

"NEW: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirms that U.S. forces struck more than 85 targets against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups."

These targets are in Syria, not in Iran itself, making this (technically) not an escalation.

[LawBeefaroni]

Appears to be more substantial than the Shayrat airbase missile strike in 2017. Back then we managed to kill 9 soldiers, 5 adult civilians, and 4 kids back then. Blew up some planes though. With about $120M worth of Tomahawks.

[Holman]

Iranian proxies killed 3 Americans and wounded 40. That requires a response.

Sure, it's probably expensive, but the precision nature of the weapons also sends a message (both to Tehran and to the wider world, given events in Gaza).

[Kurth]

This sounds like exactly the proportionate but significant response we needed.

[LawBeefaroni]

Iranian proxies killed 3 Americans and wounded 40. That requires a response.

Sure, it's probably expensive, but the precision nature of the weapons also sends a message (both to Tehran and to the wider world, given events in Gaza).

I was talking about the toothless strike in 2017. This one sounds like it was more effective.

[Holman]

Iranian proxies killed 3 Americans and wounded 40. That requires a response.

Sure, it's probably expensive, but the precision nature of the weapons also sends a message (both to Tehran and to the wider world, given events in Gaza).

I was talking about the toothless strike in 2017. This one sounds like it was more effective.

Understood.

[Kurth]

This seems like important news: Helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi crashes, state media says

Hope this isn’t a duplicate post, but didn’t see it posted elsewhere.

The helicopter went down in a remote region in dense fog. Apparently, the Iranian Foreign Minister was also on board. In a recent update, CNN reports that rescue parties have reached the crash site and are reporting no survivors:

"No survivors" were found at the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian state news agency IRINN and semi-official news agency Mehr News reported.

Some background: A former hardline judiciary chief, Raisi was Iran’s eighth president. The former prosecutor and judge was elected in 2021 following a historically uncompetitive presidential contest.

He oversaw a period of intensified repression of dissent, according to human rights monitors.

Next in the line of succession would be First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, if approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's Supreme Leader serves as the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic, dwarfing the powers of the country's president.

Unlike his predecessor, the moderate former President Hassan Rouhani, Raisi had fostered a close alliance with Khamenei. Many Iranians believed Raisi was being groomed to one day succeed the ailing 85-year-old Khamenei.

[Blackhawk]

I've been watching this intermittently today. Even if it's just a coincidence, the timing is going to lead to all sorts of theories and ponderations.

[Kraken]

Dude's been declared dead after hitting a mountain that Israel erected.

[El Guapo]

Apparently the guy was a frontrunner to succeed the current Supreme Leader. His death paves the way for the current son of the Supreme Leader to take over instead.

[Max Peck]

Dude's been declared dead after hitting a mountain that Israel erected.

It isn't like there aren't ways to bring down a helicopter that don't involve erecting a mountain.

[Freyland]

Dude's been declared dead after hitting a mountain that Israel erected.

It isn't like there aren't ways to bring down a helicopter that don't involve erecting a mountain.

Like, Jewish space lasers?

[Jaymann]

He shouldn't have listened to Ahnold.

[hepcat]

Apparently the guy was a frontrunner to succeed the current Supreme Leader. His death paves the way for the current son of the Supreme Leader to take over instead.

Well now, that's a piece of info I wasn't aware of...and that makes this a bit, shall we say...




Suspicious!

[Victoria Raverna]

According to the coverage, it was a very bad weather. So maybe they forced him to fly in bad weather?

[em2nought]

He should have listened to Ahnold.

Get me out of this chappa!

[Isgrimnur]

[em2nought]

Somebody sure put lots of effort into that.

[El Guapo]

Apparently the guy was a frontrunner to succeed the current Supreme Leader. His death paves the way for the current son of the Supreme Leader to take over instead.

Well now, that's a piece of info I wasn't aware of...and that makes this a bit, shall we say...




Suspicious!

That's what the NYT article on this said, at least. A lot of people seem to be assuming Israeli involvement ("Mossad" was trending on Twitter yesterday, which is always delightful), but this seems like an insane risk for Israel to take without much in the way of obvious benefits (not like the next guy is going to be super pro-Israel or something). Domestic assassination seems more likely if this wasn't an accident.

And also...as VR said, apparently the weather was bad. So, seems like a reasonable chance that this was actually an accident, as well.

[Scraper]

Flying Helicopters in bad weather and fog is never a good idea. Just ask Koby Bryant.

[Pyperkub]

That's what the NYT article on this said, at least. A lot of people seem to be assuming Israeli involvement ("Mossad" was trending on Twitter yesterday, which is always delightful), but this seems like an insane risk for Israel to take without much in the way of obvious benefits (not like the next guy is going to be super pro-Israel or something). Domestic assassination seems more likely if this wasn't an accident.

And also...as VR said, apparently the weather was bad. So, seems like a reasonable chance that this was actually an accident, as well.

the trick is whether someone makes a play for power/war by claiming it was assassination to justify other acts. To a certain degree, it doesn't matter if it was an accident if someone is vested enough in pinning it on someone, either Iranian or Israeli, or even other.

And there will probably be the usual (types of) groups who claim responsibility, just for the visibility.

E.G. Imagine what Trump would be doing, with the aid of Fox, et al, if Alito died in a Helicopter crash.

[abr]

And also...as VR said, apparently the weather was bad. So, seems like a reasonable chance that this was actually an accident, as well.

Plus, helicopters are complicated machines that require a lot of maintenance and Iran may have had some issues getting spare parts given the sanctions.

[gilraen]

Helicopters crash...a lot. Especially in fog (Kobe Bryant, anyone?)

[hepcat]

The one that really made me sad was Lieutenant Colonel Henry Blake.

[Isgrimnur]

Henry's plane had been shot down over the Sea of Japan

[hepcat]

Damn, I could have sworn it was a helicopter. So much for that lame joke.

[El Guapo]

That's what the NYT article on this said, at least. A lot of people seem to be assuming Israeli involvement ("Mossad" was trending on Twitter yesterday, which is always delightful), but this seems like an insane risk for Israel to take without much in the way of obvious benefits (not like the next guy is going to be super pro-Israel or something). Domestic assassination seems more likely if this wasn't an accident.

And also...as VR said, apparently the weather was bad. So, seems like a reasonable chance that this was actually an accident, as well.

the trick is whether someone makes a play for power/war by claiming it was assassination to justify other acts. To a certain degree, it doesn't matter if it was an accident if someone is vested enough in pinning it on someone, either Iranian or Israeli, or even other.

And there will probably be the usual (types of) groups who claim responsibility, just for the visibility.

E.G. Imagine what Trump would be doing, with the aid of Fox, et al, if Alito died in a Helicopter crash.

It could also be Garak.

[hepcat]

We wouldn't even be bringing his name up if it were as he would have covered his tracks expertly.

[Hyena]

Flying Helicopters in bad weather and fog is never a good idea. Just ask Koby Bryant.

Can't...

[Unagi]

if Alito died in a Helicopter crash.

Are you flirting with me?

[LawBeefaroni]

Whenever the POTUS is in town he takes Marine One to the venue, escorted by Ospreys. There's this weird feeling that something is going to fall out of the sky.

[ImLawBoy]

Whenever the POTUS is in town he takes Marine One to the venue, escorted by Ospreys. There's this weird feeling that something is going to fall.out of the sky.

They fly low and loud. My house is pretty much on the flight path between downtown and O'Hare.

[Max Peck]

Whenever the POTUS is in town he takes Marine One to the venue, escorted by Ospreys. There's this weird feeling that something is going to fall.out of the sky.

On the up side, that is probably the best maintained helicopter on the planet.

[LawBeefaroni]

Whenever the POTUS is in town he takes Marine One to the venue, escorted by Ospreys. There's this weird feeling that something is going to fall.out of the sky.

On the up side, that is probably the best maintained helicopter on the planet.

He doesn't get to ride in the Ospreys, obviously, but he did put Jill in one once.

[Max Peck]

The Collapse of the Khamenei Doctrine

Iran’s supreme leader promised no peace and no war. But the moment of choice has come.

A year of conflict in the Middle East has destroyed the foreign-policy approach of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His strategy was always implausible, but its collapse has led Iran to the brink of its first international war since 1988.

What I like to call the Khamenei Doctrine—those close to him have variously dubbed it “strategic patience” or, more to the point, “no peace, no war”—rests on a duality that has remained constant through Khamenei’s 35 years in power. Iran refuses any public dealings with Israel, clamoring instead for the Jewish state’s destruction and surrounding it with Arab militias that seek to destroy it. Iranian officials deny the Holocaust and chant “Death to America” at events and ceremonies. And yet, at no point does Khamenei intend to get into a direct conflict with Israel or the United States—because he knows very well that such a confrontation could be fatal for his regime.

[Isgrimnur]

3 charged in Iran-linked murder plots, with one targeting Donald Trump as revenge for killing Qassem Soleimani: DOJ

Farhad Shakeri, Carlisle Rivera and Jonathan Loadholt are charged with murder-for-hire, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. Rivera and Loadholt have been arrested, while Shakeri, who the FBI described as an "asset" of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is believed to be in Tehran.

The IRGC tasked Shakeri with surveilling and killing Trump to avenge the death of Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran's elite Quds Force, in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020, according to the complaint.
...
Shakeri emigrated to the United States but was deported in 2008 after serving prison time for robbery, according to the Justice Department. While in prison, he met Rivera and Loadholt and hired them to target an Iranian American activist living in Brooklyn, according to the complaint.
...
The IRGC also tasked Shakeri with carrying out other assassinations against U.S. and Israeli citizens located in the United States, including Trump, the complaint alleges.