The Apprentice Season 2 - The Second Presidency of Donald Trump

[Rumpy]

I feel like his first Presidency was all about seeing what buttons he could push and seeing what he could get away with; this next one seems like now that he knows all that, he's throwing away all pretense by hiring his 'dream' cabinet' of people just like him. He knows there's no stopping him now given what he got away with.

[coopasonic]

The last few posts caused me to actually look up 'captivated.' It seems I've been using a slightly off meaning for half a century. I always took it to means 'enthralled' or 'fascinated.' I never caught that it carried an implication of a positive reaction.

I would guess that most people have dozens, if not hundreds of words that they learned growing up whose meanings are just a hair off of the true meaning. And 99% of the time, you'd never notice in normal usage, unless there's a very specific context that makes you question yourself.

Interesting.

I don't know if we have a words thread, but this is better than talking about Trump. I also read "enthralled" and "fascinated" with positive connotations unless context says otherwise so your statement confuses me a bit. Not picking, but yeah picking.

[Skinypupy]

Oh hey look, it's the exact thing that literally everyone said would happen.

Walmart may have to raise some prices if Trump tariffs take effect, CFO says

We will soon hear that it’s totally fine if prices remain at current levels or even raise under Trump because tariffs are “making America great”. This will be mostly among people who couldn’t define what a tariff is their life depended on it.

But those same people will claim that the higher prices under Biden were concrete proof of his failed economic policies and were leaving our economy in shambles. Even though prices were less inflated than nearly everywhere else in the world post-COVID.

I would wager a very hefty sum on this outcome.

[Blackhawk]

I'm just trying to get rid of as much debt as possible before it hits.

[LordMortis]

We will soon hear that it’s totally fine if prices remain at current levels or even raise under Trump because tariffs are “making America great”. This will be mostly among people who couldn’t define what a tariff is their life depended on it.

Soon? I was hearing it October.

But those same people will claim that the higher prices under Biden were concrete proof of his failed economic policies and were leaving our economy in shambles. Even though prices were less inflated than nearly everywhere else in the world post-COVID.

And yes, the same voice that were telling me tariff inflation is best thing we can do for the economy were also attacking Biden on inflation from the moment he got in the office. They kept claiming COVID stimulus was causing inflation well in to 2023 and then totally lost it when when we started putting money toward building and rebuilding infrastructure.

Though not all inflation complainers were screaming bring on tariff inflation. They were instead screaming, "Illegal aliens are getting welfare!"

[LawBeefaroni]

Sigh. Shower of bastards.

Having long promised to gut the federal workforce and even eliminate some departments, Trump has foregone many of the norms associated with peacefully taking office. For example, Trump hast yet to meet with the General Services Administration, which is in charge of transferring the control of federal agencies, The Post reported. His transition team also hasn't met with counterparts at any of the federal agencies in Washington.

....

Mike David, president of the Article III Project, a nonprofit group that has defended Trump against criminal charges, told The Post that the president-elect is right not to trust “the politicized and weaponized” agencies that “hobbled his presidency the first time.”

“It’s a hostile takeover on behalf of the American people," David said.

[Grifman]

This covers a lot of ground on various issues, but I decided to post it here:

[Alefroth]

I wonder what happens if that irreconcilable conflict occurs. Does Musk use his considerable influence to undermine Trump? Would he become a pariah in MAGAland?

[hepcat]

I hate that the presidency is now covered in Musk.

[Kurth]

I'm just trying to get rid of as much debt as possible before it hits.

Wait. Isn't that the exact opposite of what you want to do if you are anticipating inflation?

[ImLawBoy]

I hate that the presidency is now covered in Musk.

You don't find it oddly alluring and S3XY?

[Blackhawk]

I'm just trying to get rid of as much debt as possible before it hits.

Wait. Isn't that the exact opposite of what you want to do if you are anticipating inflation?

I have no idea what the conventional wisdom is, but if prices go up, getting rid of the interest I'm paying may be my only chance to get through.

[Holman]

I wonder what happens if that irreconcilable conflict occurs. Does Musk use his considerable influence to undermine Trump? Would he become a pariah in MAGAland?

Musk is as much a narcissist as Trump, and eventually they're going to butt heads.

Plus, Steve Bannon apparently hates Musk. While he is not currently in the highest favor, you know that he and his wing of MAGA will be trying to wormtongue things to Musk's detriment.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, it's pretty clear they're going to have a spat at some point. I think I'm more concerned about the fallout for the average person. It'll be like two derpy Kaiju fighting and we're just all going to be collateral damage in their splash zone.

[Alefroth]

Lol... derpy Kaiju. Somebody should put that in an AI generator.

[Kurth]

I'm just trying to get rid of as much debt as possible before it hits.

Wait. Isn't that the exact opposite of what you want to do if you are anticipating inflation?

I have no idea what the conventional wisdom is, but if prices go up, getting rid of the interest I'm paying may be my only chance to get through.

I’m no financial advisor, so take this for what it’s worth, but as inflation increases, your debt is effectively reduced.

Think about it: If ten dollars buys you a basket of groceries, and you have $100 in debt, you have 10 grocery baskets of debt. If that same grocery basket costs you $20 in a year, your debt load has effectively been reduced to 5 grocery baskets of debt.

If you are worried about inflation increasing over the next year, you should be front loading your purchasing decisions and buying the things you anticipate needing over the next year. You shouldn’t be spending available cash to pay down your debt.

(If I’m ass backwards on this and someone with more financial savvy wants to correct me, please don’t let me steer Blackhawk wrong.)

[Blackhawk]

I can see the logic in that. My thinking is that if I'm bringing $1300 per month, and paying $350 per month in interest charges, getting that down to $200 a month makes it less likely that I'll be choosing between rent and food (as I've had to do in the past.) I certainly don't have the space to store a year's worth of (whatever.)

And yes, those numbers are the real ones.

[Kraken]

I can see the logic in that. My thinking is that if I'm bringing $1300 per month, and paying $350 per month in interest charges, getting that down to $200 a month makes it less likely that I'll be choosing between rent and food (as I've had to do in the past.) I certainly don't have the space to store a year's worth of (whatever.)

And yes, those numbers are the real ones.

It's also likely that your income will go down, as I'm sure you're aware.

[Blackhawk]

I can see the logic in that. My thinking is that if I'm bringing $1300 per month, and paying $350 per month in interest charges, getting that down to $200 a month makes it less likely that I'll be choosing between rent and food (as I've had to do in the past.) I certainly don't have the space to store a year's worth of (whatever.)

And yes, those numbers are the real ones.

It's also likely that your income will go down, as I'm sure you're aware.

I have very little wiggle room. As things stand, if prices go up by more than a couple hundred a month, or my income goes down that amount (or a combination thereof), I'll be in big trouble. I can't get a raise or a better job - I've got what I'm given. That's why reducing the debt becomes such a big deal - I could potentially double my wiggle room.

[Grifman]

Trump’s “no tax on tips” shtick is going to backfire people earning tips. Since tipping is mostly discretionary, tippers are inevitably going to cut back, reasoning that employees don’t need as much since they aren’t paying taxes. They may even end up worse if people really cut back. And what about social security and unemployment taxes? Excluding tips for that could come back to bite people.

This is one of those things that sounds good on the surface but may suffer from the law of unintended consequences.

[Grifman]

The Republican Congress wants to do it “all” in one giant bill:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/tax-policy ... s-89ea4f6c

Republicans are trying to fit as many priorities as possible into one bill early next year, combining tax cuts, spending cuts, energy policy, border security and President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promises.

Engineering the legislation that way can help the party completely sideline Democrats, and it is Republicans’ best chance to quickly exploit unified control of the House, Senate and White House. Strike first, strike hard, no mercy, to borrow an ’80s movie catchphrase.

But balance is key. The path ahead is a political, arithmetical and procedural tightrope. As Republicans squeeze proposals into the tax bill, they must follow the rules of a special process called reconciliation that lets them dodge the Senate’s usual 60-vote filibuster threshold. They also must maintain near-perfect party unity, finding compromises on issues that divide Republicans, including budget deficits, clean-energy subsidies and the state and local tax deduction.

[stimpy]

Trump’s “no tax on tips” shtick is going to backfire people earning tips. Since tipping is mostly discretionary, tippers are inevitably going to cut back, reasoning that employees don’t need as much since they aren’t paying taxes. They may even end up worse if people really cut back. And what about social security and unemployment taxes? Excluding tips for that could come back to bite people.

This is one of those things that sounds good on the surface but may suffer from the law of unintended consequences.

On the flip side, I for one had no idea that tips were taxed.
Now that I do know that, I will increase my tips to adjust accordingly.
So if there are others out there like me, just bringing this up will help the servers.

[LordMortis]

No idea how they are taxed now but when I was server/bartender, every position I held automatically taxed me at 12.5% of the tab, though I was supposed to declare at my actual tipped wage. Because I was automatically taxed, I never declared beyond the 12.5% already taken. I don't think anyone I ever knew did. I also have no idea if hospitality ownership was required to declare and withhold 12.5% or if that was just a quiet standard they all happened to abide by for their own CYA. When I was a server, the standard tip was 15%. Nowadays it somehow migrated to 20%, so I have no idea what's all changed in the last 30 years.

Also, I don't understand actively encouraging more underground economy other than finding more ways to rebel against income tax, in general. I get wanting less taxes on the less wealthy but not setting up even more ways to avoid taxes altogether. If I can't even give more than $10,000 to a relative in single year, can I simply tip them for coming over to my house and bringing a courtesy snack, of say $2.5 million?

[Zarathud]

If you’re living on tips, you’re not paying much income taxes beyond Social Security. This “no tax on tips” policy was intended to create a meaningless tax cut to drive low information voters to vote Trump. It worked.

[Skinypupy]

Now that I do know that, I will increase my tips to adjust accordingly.
So if there are others out there like me, just bringing this up will help the servers.

And do you think that's likely to happen?

[LordMortis]

If you’re living on tips, you’re not paying much income taxes beyond Social Security. This “no tax on tips” policy was intended to create a meaningless tax cut to drive low information voters to vote Trump. It worked.

In the way back machine, I knew some people who lived pretty damned well off tipped income, especially for being young twenty somethings. I, however, never once made enough money to come close to exceeding taxes above my $3.10 an hour wage to not actually collect a paycheck or owe money.

[Blackhawk]

Most people don't follow current events except in the broadest terms. Most people don't perform routine actions with forethought and consideration - they just go through the motions.

I'd guess that 99% of people will either not know that tipping has changed, or won't think through what it means enough to manually adjust their tips. Fewer still will bother futzing with a percentage point or two. They'll do what they always do - hit the '15%' or '20%' button during checkout, or blindly guess and round.

[Holman]

What I've heard is that the "no tax on tips" rule is actually going to be structured so that massive executive bonuses are also untaxed. It sounds insane, but look at who who we're dealing with.

If this is the case, it has only a slight amount to do with your server and everything to do with the already wealthy.

[Skinypupy]

What I've heard is that the "no tax on tips" rule is actually going to be structured so that massive executive bonuses are also untaxed. It sounds insane, but look at who who we're dealing with.

If this is the case, it has only a slight amount to do with your server and everything to do with the already wealthy.

My understanding is that both tips and bonuses qualify for the "no tax" rule. So while it may have a negligible effect for tip workers, it will have a HUGE impact for the Wall Street bro getting a $500K year end bonus that he now doesn't have to pay any taxes on.

That was the primary difference between the Trump plan and the Harris plan, which was actually tips only.

[LordMortis]

What I've heard is that the "no tax on tips" rule is actually going to be structured so that massive executive bonuses are also untaxed. It sounds insane, but look at who who we're dealing with.

If this is the case, it has only a slight amount to do with your server and everything to do with the already wealthy.

I was thinking more about inheritance gifting. Tipping a family employee in your family business 100000x their minimum wage when you are the only shareholders, why not?

[LawBeefaroni]

Trump’s “no tax on tips” shtick is going to backfire people earning tips. Since tipping is mostly discretionary, tippers are inevitably going to cut back, reasoning that employees don’t need as much since they aren’t paying taxes. They may even end up worse if people really cut back. And what about social security and unemployment taxes? Excluding tips for that could come back to bite people.

This is one of those things that sounds good on the surface but may suffer from the law of unintended consequences.

On the flip side, I for one had no idea that tips were taxed.
Now that I do know that, I will increase my tips to adjust accordingly.
So if there are others out there like me, just bringing this up will help the servers.

Just tip with cash.

[LawBeefaroni]

What I've heard is that the "no tax on tips" rule is actually going to be structured so that massive executive bonuses are also untaxed. It sounds insane, but look at who who we're dealing with.

If this is the case, it has only a slight amount to do with your server and everything to do with the already wealthy.

My understanding is that both tips and bonuses qualify for the "no tax" rule. So while it may have a negligible effect for tip workers, it will have a HUGE impact for the Wall Street bro getting a $500K year end bonus that he now doesn't have to pay any taxes on.

That was the primary difference between the Trump plan and the Harris plan, which was actually tips only.

Yes, this is why it gained traction. Bonuses untaxed as "tips" will net a lot of extra take-home for Wall Street.

[stimpy]

Trump’s “no tax on tips” shtick is going to backfire people earning tips. Since tipping is mostly discretionary, tippers are inevitably going to cut back, reasoning that employees don’t need as much since they aren’t paying taxes. They may even end up worse if people really cut back. And what about social security and unemployment taxes? Excluding tips for that could come back to bite people.

This is one of those things that sounds good on the surface but may suffer from the law of unintended consequences.

On the flip side, I for one had no idea that tips were taxed.
Now that I do know that, I will increase my tips to adjust accordingly.
So if there are others out there like me, just bringing this up will help the servers.

Just tip with cash.

Usually do, but there are times it just gets added onto the bill and goes on the card.

[stimpy]

Now that I do know that, I will increase my tips to adjust accordingly.
So if there are others out there like me, just bringing this up will help the servers.

And do you think that's likely to happen?

On my end? Yes. As to what others do, I would hope so, but who knows.

[Grifman]

How Trump will test the limits of executive authority:



Republicans should be careful. Assuming a Democrat is again president one day, this could come back to bite them. But being long sighted isn’t what they are currently known for.

[Blackhawk]

Nobody without an X account can read threaded posts anymore. All we can see is the first post.

[Smoove_B]

I get the sense that the first 100 days are going to be rather...intense. I'm pretty confident the deportations, but now it seems many are thinking the military is also going to be purged:

Donald Trump is planning an executive order that would lead to the removal of all transgender members of the US military, defence sources say.

The order could come on his first day back in the White House, January 20. There are believed to be about 15,000 active service personnel who are transgender. They would be medically discharged, which would determine that they were unfit to serve.

It would also lead to a ban on trans people joining the military and would come at a time when almost all branches of the American armed forces are failing to meet recruitment targets.

[Grifman]

Trump advisor seeks “consulting payments” from potential cabinet nominees:

[Exodor]

Trump announces he plans to implement tariffs on Day 1 - against Mexico and Canada as well as China

Trump made the threats in a pair of posts on his Truth Social site Monday evening in which he railed against an influx of illegal migrants, even though southern border apprehensions have been hovering near four-year lows.

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders,

In totally not related news I ordered the new iPad I've been putting off while I can still get it at a somewhat reasonable price.

[Kraken]

I hope they DO hit the ground running. They're inheriting an economy that's already quite healthy and still improving. It's going to take time and effort to trash it, as I want them to do before the midterms. Slashing taxes and regulations makes Wall Street have a moneygasm, but that won't make up for the effects of deporting cheap labor and hiking prices on everything (via tariffs).