Syria - civil war incoming?

[Holman]

[Useful summary]

Thanks for that.

[Grifman]

A good overview of the possible winners and losers in Syria if Assad falls:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863 ... =topunroll

[Blackhawk]

A good overview of the possible winners and losers in Syria if Assad falls:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863 ... =topunroll

Thank you for using the thread reader.

[Kraken]

A good overview of the possible winners and losers in Syria if Assad falls:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863 ... =topunroll

Thank you for using the thread reader.

+1. I wonder if we can agree not to link to Xitter anymore since most of us can't see or won''t click those links.

[Exodor]

+1. I wonder if we can agree not to link to Xitter anymore since most of us can't see or won''t click those links.

This is something that's been requested over and over. I can't even see Twitter links so I just skip posts that have them - I'm almost to the point of just blocking users who insist on posting endless unreadable Twitter links.

[LordMortis]

I see them hotlinked both on my phone and on my computer but they are always long links that require a login to read in full. I quit clicking a long time ago because I am not intentionally feeding them traffic with no payoff or at best a payoff gamble. I don't begrudge people though, just like I don't begrudge them paywalled links. I just scroll past and move on. The post just wasn't meant for me is all.

Note: As much as you don't want people to link Xhitter, there have been requests to add general link previews but that's work for our unpaid project hero with a life of his own.

[Grifman]

+1. I wonder if we can agree not to link to Xitter anymore since most of us can't see or won''t click those links.

This is something that's been requested over and over. I can't even see Twitter links so I just skip posts that have them - I'm almost to the point of just blocking users who insist on posting endless unreadable Twitter links.

The problem is that oftentimes the info being referenced is only a thread of Twitter posts, not a linked article. If there is a link, I will include that link also underneath the Twitter post. If there is a Thread Reader, I will include that, as I did above. But if someone does a Twitter thread consisting info/analysis in those posts themselves, and there is no Thread Reader, then there is nothing else to post other than the actual Twitter posts.

[Grifman]

A good overview of the possible winners and losers in Syria if Assad falls:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863 ... =topunroll

Thank you for using the thread reader.

I did it just for you

[Grifman]

A good overview of the possible winners and losers in Syria if Assad falls:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863 ... =topunroll

Thank you for using the thread reader.

+1. I wonder if we can agree not to link to Xitter anymore since most of us can't see or won''t click those links.

With respect, unless there is some unpublished poll of OO members that I am not aware of, how do you know “most” can’t see or click on such links?

I’ll try to provide other options if I post to a Twitter post, such as a Thread Reader, or an article link but oftentimes there are no other options.

[Blackhawk]

It's always an option to quote the text of single Twitter posts, and any thread can use a reader link.

[Grifman]

It's always an option to quote the text of single Twitter posts, and any thread can use a reader link.

I don't know anything about the latter. I use Thread Readers if someone creates them.

[Blackhawk]

It's always an option to quote the text of single Twitter posts, and any thread can use a reader link.

I don't know anything about the latter. I use Thread Readers if someone creates them.

It's DIY.
https://threadreaderapp.com/

[Unagi]

A good overview of the possible winners and losers in Syria if Assad falls:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863 ... =topunroll

Thank you for using the thread reader.

I did it just for you

Not just for him.

I''m very down on X and would love it (love it) (LOVE IT) if we stopped promoting their platform.

I realize that's not going to happen overnight, but I don't get the sense you have any big qualms about it.


my 2 pennies.

[Max Peck]

The embeds don't work for me because I'm not going to disable my browser's security features just to see them. That means that a Xitter link is basically a naked URL for me, so if there is no accompanying comment that explains why I should click through, then I probably won't bother unless it's been posted in a thread whose topic is of keen interest to me (e.g. Ukraine, other conflicts, etc).

[Grifman]

The sultan rules all (link below):



https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-b ... of-aleppo/

[Grifman]

A good overview of the possible winners and losers in Syria if Assad falls:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863 ... =topunroll

Thank you for using the thread reader.

I did it just for you

Not just for him.

I''m very down on X and would love it (love it) (LOVE IT) if we stopped promoting their platform.

I realize that's not going to happen overnight, but I don't get the sense you have any big qualms about it.


my 2 pennies.

I get most of my news from Twitter from a wide number of sources that I follow there. While I am certainly willing to post info I find there in other ways, I’m not going to change the way I consume news because some people don’t like Twitter.

Feel free to read or ignore what I post as you wish.

[LordMortis]

With all of the curmudgeon frustration posts, I appreciate your posting news here, even if I don't appreciate it enough to click through on the links. You are exposing me to stuff I would otherwise miss completely.

[Grifman]

With all of the curmudgeon frustration posts, I appreciate your posting news here, even if I don't appreciate it enough to click through on the links. You are exposing me to stuff I would otherwise miss completely.

Thanks!

[Grifman]

I was just watching a video of SAA units moving to stop the rebels and I realized something. If and when all the civil wars and insurgencies throughout the world someday end, Toyota is going to go bankrupt because everyone mounts machine guns, rocket launchers, etc on Toyota pickups and uses them as battle taxis.

[Unagi]

With all of the curmudgeon frustration posts, I appreciate your posting news here, even if I don't appreciate it enough to click through on the links. You are exposing me to stuff I would otherwise miss completely.

Thanks!

I also agree with LM's post - btw.



It's complicated.

If I could wave my wand - you would/could find everything you need to keep me posted from Blue Sky. That's all.

[Blackhawk]

Yeah, I appreciate the news.

The only reason I even bother to comment is that I hate seeing the effort wasted, as I know that many people simply can't see it. Twitter has gone out of their way lately to make themselves unfriendly to those who don't want to fully engage with it, while at the same time making it unpleasant to engage with unless you're of a certain political/social mindset.

In practice, Twitter is almost like a paywalled news site now - useless to a great many people.

[Isgrimnur]

I was just watching a video of SAA units moving to stop the rebels and I realized something. If and when all the civil wars and insurgencies throughout the world someday end, Toyota is going to go bankrupt because everyone mounts machine guns, rocket launchers, etc on Toyota pickups and uses them as battle taxis.

Do you think they're buying them new from the dealerships?

[El Guapo]

I was just watching a video of SAA units moving to stop the rebels and I realized something. If and when all the civil wars and insurgencies throughout the world someday end, Toyota is going to go bankrupt because everyone mounts machine guns, rocket launchers, etc on Toyota pickups and uses them as battle taxis.

Do you think they're buying them new from the dealerships?

Toyota dealerships in Damascus are going gangbusters.

[Max Peck]

https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar. ... gyuyliys27

NEW: Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in the near term.(1/6)

2/ Russia cannot redeploy these vessels to its Black Sea ports because Turkey is enforcing the Montreux Convention, which prevents Russian warships from passing through the Turkish Straits. Russia will likely therefore redeploy the vessels to its bases in northwestern Russia and Kaliningrad Oblast.

3/ Ukrainian intelligence reported on Dec. 3 that the Russian military command has likely deployed a force grouping of an unspecified size from its Africa Corps — the organization the Russian MoD created to supplant the Wagner Group's operations in Africa — to Syria.

4/ ISW cannot independently confirm reports of Africa Corps elements deploying to Syria, but these reports, if true, would indicate that the Russian military command is avoiding redeploying regular Russian military forces from its priority theater in Ukraine to Syria.

5/ The Russian evacuation of Tartus and the reported deployment of Africa Corps forces to Syria suggest that Russia is worried that Syrian opposition forces may advance southward to Hama (roughly 80 kilometers northeast of Tartus)

6/ ...and threaten the Tartus base but that the Russian military command will not deploy significant reinforcements to Syria in the near term to prevent such advances. isw.pub/UkrWar120324

[Grifman]

Just a couple of days after renewing their offensive after consolidating previous gains, there are several reports that the rebels have taken Hama:



Syrian rebels enter Hama as army announces departure from key city - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-12-05/

If true, this would isolate the regime from the Russian bases on the coast, and also from their Alawite power base located in that same area. This is very bad for the regime after sending reinforcements and claiming to counterattack. Will they be able to stop the rebels anywhere?

[Grifman]

Potential collapse in Syria:



“The rebel conquest of Hama as well as the push further south all the way to Al Rastan can be only described as absolute seismic. Within a day the frontline got pushed further south by more 30 km (20 miles). For comparison, this is the distance the Russian took within an entire year in Ukraine, while losing a quarter million troops.

What's happening in Syria is how a real catastrophic collapse of a frontline looks like. It has been become clearer than anytime in the past that the time for Assad has ended. We are now at the stage where all actors are thinking and planning exit strategies, but the window is fast closing. If rebels are continuing with the speed like this, then they will be in Damascus before the month's end, and then true "realities on the ground" will determine Syria's future.”

[Grifman]

Wow, some people “disappeared” and taken prisoner by the Syrian Army during the Lebanese Civil War in the 1980’s have been found and freed by the rebels after all
These years.

[Grifman]

The SAA is abandoning positions on the West Bank of the Euphrates River as the U.S. backed SDF advances:

[Grifman]

Good BBC summary:



https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0x169enp4o

[El Guapo]

Well, I will say that Assad and his regime have this coming a hundredfold, even while his replacements are almost certainly going to be complete assholes in slightly different ways.

[El Guapo]

I also wonder if Israel decimating Hezbollah is part of the story here. As I understand it they were critical shock troops for the Syrian regime during the earlier phase of the Syrian Civil War. Having them largely unavailable here was I imagine a significant problem for Assad.

[Grifman]

Both China and Russia have urged their citizens to leave the country. That’s not a vote of confidence.

There are also reports that the rebels are entering Homs, which would just be another disaster for the regime, the final nail in the coffin. If that happens, I see mostly likely a fall back to Damascus for a last ditch stand, but mostly likely a quick collapse by the SAA as the rebels near the city.

[Max Peck]

I also wonder if Israel decimating Hezbollah is part of the story here. As I understand it they were critical shock troops for the Syrian regime during the earlier phase of the Syrian Civil War. Having them largely unavailable here was I imagine a significant problem for Assad.

As I understand it, that is part of the equation, along with Israeli attacks on Iranian IRGC elements in Syria and Lebanon, and Russia being focused on Ukraine. A bit of a perfect storm, where many of the external actors that have been propping up the regime are weakened at the same time.

[Grifman]

Assad on the way out?



MAJOR EXCLUSIVE NEWS: Regional sources speaking to Clash Report claim that during the Doha meeting, if Russia and Türkiye reach an agreement, Assad, his family, and some Baath officials may leave the country.

Russia is expected to propose names to Türkiye, which will convey the opposition’s demands, for a transition process without Assad.

[Max Peck]

https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreat ... ioj7uhrk2u

NEW | Opposition forces may continue their rapid advance toward Homs City after capturing Hama City on December 5.

Regime forces are likely collapsing as they retreat southwards towards Homs City. (1/7)

The regime does not appear to have established any defensive line between Hama City and the Orontes River. (2/7)

A pro-regime aircraft bombed the Rastan Bridge over the Orontes River, which forms a natural barrier between Hama and Homs, after Opposition forces seized the left, north bank of the Orontes. (3/7)

A force retreating in good order and not under significant pressure would have presumably blown the bridge themselves, rather than relying on aircraft. (4/7)

Airstrikes will usually fail to damage a bridge sufficiently to prevent a crossing, making ground-based detonation preferable unless a force is unable to detonate the bridge. (5/7)

The reported low casualties among Regime forces during the collapse around Hama suggest that Regime forces were not under significant pressure. (6/7)

It is also possible that the regime was forced to rely on aircraft due to a lack of combat engineers to detonate the bridge.

[Isgrimnur]

I guess they lost coop's number.

[Grifman]

Assad’s family has left the country. He has asked Egypt and Jordan for help, they refused and urged him to go into exile overseas. Russia is refusing additional aid and has abandoned another airbase under pressure from the rebels. The end is near, IMO.

[Grifman]

Iran is now educating IRG military and embassy staff. Russia has reportedly moved ships out of their Syrian ports due to fears of drone attacks (not sure where they go). I don’t see Assad hanging around much longer.

As a side note, Iran has been revealed as a paper tiger. All of their proxies gave been crushed - Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad. And they have been unable to- or willing to- to do much to prop them up. They’ve spent millions on these 3 projects and soon thy have very little to show for it. Extremely humiliating.

[Max Peck]

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/113608427134274995

Rebel factions have taken control of the SAA Al-Batal Palace sites on the international road between Amman and Damascus, near the town of Saida in eastern Daraa. They captured abandoned SAA equipment.

Saida is located about 100 km south of Damascus, so whoever these rebels are, they apparently aren't part of the HTS push down from the north toward Damascus.

Apparently the rebels in the south go by "The Southern Operations Room"...

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/113607987650883239

Syrian government control over southern Syria has completely collapsed. Rebels from The Southern Operations Room controls the entire city of Daraa and dozens of cities, towns and military barracks.

Wikipedia: Southern Syria offensive (2024)

[Grifman]

Yes, the south around Daraa was one of the initial hotbeds of resistance when the civil war began. It was very bloody there. The govt hold there was maintained largely through agreements with the rebels who never truly disarmed. When the uprising began in the north and took Aleppo and continued to advance, they saw their chance and revolted. They have rapidly expanded, moving to the Israeli border and towards Damascus. The govt collapse in the south has been such that their forces are only 15 km south of the capital Damascus. Doubt they have the strength to push into the city on their own though.

Meanwhile, regime control has collapsed in the west. The Kurdish led SDF has crossed the Euphrates and taken a number of cities towns along the river, and is now pushing across the desert to the next major position at Palmyra. One Syrian unit crossed the Iraqi border and surrendered to the Iraqi army. Another U.S. affiliated rebel force from the Jordanian border in the southwest is also pushing towards Palmyra, and there are reports that a third rebel faction from the north is heading there also. Not sure what happens if/when they all get there.

The regime lost control of 4 provincial capitals yesterday. I have no doubt that Damascus will fall at some point. I think the real question will be the coastal region around the Russian base. That area is dominated by the Alawite sect, which the Assads belonged to, and which provided most of their power during their years of rule. A lot of the rebels truly hate them, and there is a genuine fear of massacres if they surrender. Will they fight to defend that coastal area? Or can a peaceful surrender be negotiated? And will it be held to afterwards. That’s going to be tricky has as that sect is blamed for the Assads due to their strong support for the regime. They provided much of the high govt/military leaders and were favored by the regime.

A lot to be decided here. This is the Russian/Iranian version of Afghanistan/South Vietnam.