Syria - civil war incoming?

[Grifman]

The rebels from the south are moving rapidly on Damascus. They are now only a few kilometers from the city center and the presidential palace. Sops/ services are closing, people heading indoors. If Assad is still in his capital, he’d better get out now if he doesn’t want his head on a pike. Damascus looks like it will fall in the next 24 hours. Then I am afraid the real fighting will begin.

Russian military bloggers are upset. They are calling for a Russian ruled “People’s Republic of Latakia” on the coast, but it’s not clear that could be effectively defended given everything would be in drone range. They are just venting.

[Grifman]

Three Iranian Officials have told the New York Times that they have begun the Evacuation of Senior Military Leaders and Personnel from Syria, in anticipation of the Imminent Collapse of the Assad Regime. Top Commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force have left Syria for refuge in both Lebanon and Iraq; in addition, Iranian Military Personnel, Diplomatic Staff and their Families, as well as Iranian Civilians began to be Evacuated on Friday, with their departure being ordered by the Iranian Embassy in Damascus and IRGC Leadership.. Some of the Evacuations took place via Commercial Flights between Damascus and Tehran, while others used Lands Routes with Lebanon, Iraq and the Syrian Port of Latakia.

[Max Peck]

Wikipedia is a weak-assed source, but imma leave this link here anyway.

Battle of Damascus (2024)

On 7 December 2024, Syrian opposition Southern Operations Room forces entered the Rif Dimashq region from the south, and came within 20 kilometres (12 mi) of the capital Damascus. The Syrian Army withdrew from multiple points in the outskirts. Concurrently with the advance towards Damascus, opposition Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army in the north launched an offensive into Homs city, while the Syrian Free Army advanced onto the capital from the South-East.

[Grifman]

Haha, I don’t think the opposition is going to go for this:



BREAKING:

Bloomberg reports that Assad has reached out to the rebels to signal that he’s ready to draw up a new constitution & hold political negotiations with the rebels

[Grifman]

There are multiple reports that Homs has fallen:

[Grifman]

Syrian TV says that Assad has fled Damascus, location/destination unknown.



The rebels are entering Damascus, the SAA high command has surrendered, the only holdouts are a few Republican Guard units.

I pray that various rebel groups can come to agreement so that the people of Syria can rebuild their nation and lives in peace, and that millions of refugees can go home. I hope this doesn’t turn out to be another Libya.

[Kraken]

Wikipedia is a weak-assed source,

Not really. It's generally quite solid, and more respected than it was in its early days.

[Grifman]

It’s Over! The Syrian General Staff has ordered the Surrender of all remaining Soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the Capital of Damascus.

[Grifman]

Syrian State TV has a sense of humor:



Syrian State TV is no joke currently airing a documentary that mentioned how Damascus fell to the Abbasids in 750AD without putting up a fight

[Isgrimnur]

Sri Lanka Guardian

The IL-76T cargo plane allegedly carrying Bashar al-Assad, the now-former President of the Syrian Arab Republic, has reportedly crashed near the town of Al-Suwayri after disappearing from radar. Assad’s departure from Damascus came amid the total collapse of his regime, marking the end of 61 years of Ba’athist rule and the beginning of a new chapter in Syria’s turbulent history.

The crash follows Assad’s dramatic attempt to flee the country as rebel forces seized control of Damascus. The Syrian Arab Army, once a symbol of regime strength, capitulated under the weight of internal disorganisation and a coordinated rebel offensive. Witness reports suggest the plane, en route to an unknown destination—possibly Russia—displayed erratic flight behaviour before its abrupt disappearance. Assad, a licensed pilot, is speculated to have been at the controls, though the exact circumstances remain unclear. Wreckage near Al-Suwayri is yet to be independently verified.

[Grifman]

Sri Lanka Guardian

The IL-76T cargo plane allegedly carrying Bashar al-Assad, the now-former President of the Syrian Arab Republic, has reportedly crashed near the town of Al-Suwayri after disappearing from radar. Assad’s departure from Damascus came amid the total collapse of his regime, marking the end of 61 years of Ba’athist rule and the beginning of a new chapter in Syria’s turbulent history.

The crash follows Assad’s dramatic attempt to flee the country as rebel forces seized control of Damascus. The Syrian Arab Army, once a symbol of regime strength, capitulated under the weight of internal disorganisation and a coordinated rebel offensive. Witness reports suggest the plane, en route to an unknown destination—possibly Russia—displayed erratic flight behaviour before its abrupt disappearance. Assad, a licensed pilot, is speculated to have been at the controls, though the exact circumstances remain unclear. Wreckage near Al-Suwayri is yet to be independently verified.

Wow, I had read that this plane had taken off and dropped from the radar but no one knew if Assad was on it or not. Crazy if true.

Condolences to Tulsi Gabbard.

[Max Peck]

Wikipedia is a weak-assed source,

Not really. It's generally quite solid, and more respected than it was in its early days.

Given that there was no actual "Battle of Damascus", I feel vindicated.

[Kraken]

Wikipedia is a weak-assed source,

Not really. It's generally quite solid, and more respected than it was in its early days.

Given that there was no actual "Battle of Damascus", I feel vindicated.

I might have been talking out of my nether regions. Wiki as an encyclopedia is pretty solid. It's not where one goes for breaking news.

[LawBeefaroni]

AMMAN/BEIRUT/CAIRO, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Syrian rebels declared President Bashar al-Assad's ouster after seizing control of Damascus on Sunday, ending his family's iron-fisted rule after more than 13 years of civil war in a seismic moment for the Middle East.

The Islamist rebels also dealt a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in the region, key allies who propped up Assad during critical moments in the conflict.
Iran's embassy was stormed by Syrian rebels following their capture of Damascus, Iran's English-language Press TV reported on Sunday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-12-07/

[Victoria Raverna]

Is this outcome good for US?

[hepcat]

It will be after Trump claims HE'S the one that personally liberated Syria from the evil al-Assad family.

A bigger question will be whether or not they'll put someone in charge with a porn star mustache again, or buck the trend and go with something else.

[Grifman]

Sri Lanka Guardian

The IL-76T cargo plane allegedly carrying Bashar al-Assad, the now-former President of the Syrian Arab Republic, has reportedly crashed near the town of Al-Suwayri after disappearing from radar. Assad’s departure from Damascus came amid the total collapse of his regime, marking the end of 61 years of Ba’athist rule and the beginning of a new chapter in Syria’s turbulent history.

The crash follows Assad’s dramatic attempt to flee the country as rebel forces seized control of Damascus. The Syrian Arab Army, once a symbol of regime strength, capitulated under the weight of internal disorganisation and a coordinated rebel offensive. Witness reports suggest the plane, en route to an unknown destination—possibly Russia—displayed erratic flight behaviour before its abrupt disappearance. Assad, a licensed pilot, is speculated to have been at the controls, though the exact circumstances remain unclear. Wreckage near Al-Suwayri is yet to be independently verified.

Appears to be just rumor, no crash site has been discovered.

[Grifman]

Is this outcome good for US?

Unknown if this is good for anybody. It all depends on what the various rebel groups do now. Hopefully it will be good for the Syrian people.

[Max Peck]

Is this outcome good for US?

Unknown if this is good for anybody. It all depends on what the various rebel groups do now. Hopefully it will be good for the Syrian people.

The one thing we can be sure of is that it's bad for Iran.

The biggest questions on my mind this morning are whether the leader of the HTS means it when he says they aren't intending to take over the government, and whether Erdogan wants to make Syria a Turkish puppet now that it isn't an Iranian puppet. At a minimum I expect him to take a run at the SDF controlled Kurdish territory in the northeast.

[Max Peck]

Appears to be just rumor, no crash site has been discovered.

There were two competing rumors involving him flying out of Damascus, the other being that he was on a private flight that landed in Abu Dhabi.

[Grifman]

Some people are deluded:



“Of course he (Assad) is a good man! For heavens sake, he’s a doctor! Do you think he goes around killing people?”

[LawBeefaroni]

His wife is from London, born and raised. Educated at Queen's and King's colleges. There's a decent amount of fandom based on that.

[Grifman]

The rebels have now entered the coastal enclave where the Russian port and airbase are. There are rumors the Russian navy has left, but I’m not sure how they get back to Russia without stopping to refuel somewhere. And what about the airfield? All those planes have nowhere to go. Seems like, as the U.S. in Afghanistan, a lot of expensive stuff is going to be left behind.

[Grifman]

Assad’s garage:

[Grifman]

Free at last:



The Lebanese Christian Claude Lichaa El Khoury was kidnapped as a young man by the Assad regime & taken to Syria

He was freed last night from the Sednaya prison last night after rotting away in a prison cell for decades

His family just got the best Christmas present imaginable

[hepcat]

His wife is from London, born and raised. Educated at Queen's and King's colleges. There's a decent amount of fandom based on that.

Years ago, Vogue magazine ran into some trouble after publishing a glowing article about her with the title “A Rose in the Desert”. The article made no mention of the fact her husband was brutally torturing dissidents, calling her family “wildly democratic”.

When things started to slide and her steady supply of designer clothes and sports cars looked to be in danger, she did what every dictator does in that region: she blamed America for dividing Syria.

Hopefully the U.K. won’t let her flee to their shores.

[Grifman]

The Cure To Russia's "Brain Drain" Problem? This London Educated Eye Surgeon Explains What He Sees In Moving To Moscow

[Grifman]

There are reports of pockets of Russian troops left behind and surrounded and under attack in the coastal areas evacuated by the Russian military. I don’t expect they will receive much mercy.

[Max Peck]

Maybe Russia can give the rebels something they want in return for the safe passage of any remaining Russian forces.

Syria's Assad and his family are in Moscow after Russia granted them asylum, say Russian news agencies

Syria's Bashar al-Assad and his family have arrived in Russia and have been granted asylum by the Russian authorities, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday, citing a Kremlin source.

The Interfax news agency quoted the unnamed source as saying: "President Assad of Syria has arrived in Moscow. Russia has granted them (him and his family) asylum on humanitarian grounds."

[Grifman]

The Sednaya Prison is a hell hole. Its layout is so convoluted and maze-like that search and rescue teams have been called to try and find all the prisoners. They’ve found prisoners who have been there as long as 40 years, and all of them are in shock and have trouble understanding what is going on because they have not had any news from the outside world while imprisoned. Rescuers have also found vats of acid with human bones in them where bodies were “take care of”.

[hepcat]

Tulsi is right now figuring out how to convince people the prisoners threw THEMSELVES into vats of acid.

[Grifman]

Interesting article on how Russia, Iran and Hezbollah all came to the decision to abandon Assad:



https://amwaj.media/article/inside-stor ... l-of-assad

[Max Peck]

In the ever-depressing Realpolitik File, I'm seeing speculation that if most countries refuse to deal with HTS due to it's history then Russia may be able to cut a deal with them to preserve it's strategic assets in Syria. That seems like it would be a huge betrayal of the Syrian people and I'd hope that HTS would tell them to pound sand, but then I remembered this timeline we're in.

[El Guapo]

In the ever-depressing Realpolitik File, I'm seeing speculation that if most countries refuse to deal with HTS due to it's history then Russia may be able to cut a deal with them to preserve it's strategic assets in Syria. That seems like it would be a huge betrayal of the Syrian people and I'd hope that HTS would tell them to pound sand, but then I remembered this timeline we're in.

I mean, ultimately Russia doesn't care who the dictator in Syria is, as long as they do what they want, and HTS wants someone backing them up. I think Turkey is first in line to be the primary HTS foreign patron, though.

[Max Peck]

It's not an issue of what Russia wants that depresses me, it's just the thought that Serious People™ believe that HTS might reasonably be expected to come to an agreement with them. And of course I look forward to US foreign policy that pushes them in that direction come the coronation next month. Those bases would be a beautiful thank you gift to Trump's good friend.

[Max Peck]

I'm sure this is all very helpful and not at all destabilizing.

Israel's incursion in the southwest and its airstrikes on bases of the defeated army create an additional security problem for the new administration, although Israel insists its intervention is temporary.

After Assad's flight on Sunday ended more than five decades of his family's rule, Israeli troops moved into the buffer zone inside Syria established following the 1973 Middle East war.

Three security sources said on Tuesday the Israelis had advanced beyond the demilitarised zone. One Syrian source said they had reached the town of Qatana, several km (miles) to the east of the buffer zone and a short drive from Damascus airport.

Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said he had ordered a "sterile defensive zone" to be created in southern Syria to protect Israel from terrorism.
Military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said troops were in the buffer zone and "a few additional points" in the vicinity, the first apparent official Israeli acknowledgement that they had moved beyond it. He said, however, that there had been no significant push into Syria.

"We are not involved in what's happening in Syria internally, we are not a side in this conflict and we do not have any interest other than protecting our borders and the security of our citizens," Shoshani said.

Katz also said Israel's navy had destroyed Syria's fleet.

Regional security sources and officers within the defunct Syrian army described Tuesday morning's Israeli air strikes as the heaviest yet, hitting military installations and air bases across Syria and destroying dozens of helicopters and jets.

Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have condemned the Israeli incursion.

[Isgrimnur]

Katz also said Israel's navy had destroyed Syria's fleet.

Their very own Operation Catapult.

Israel confirms attack on Syrian naval fleet

The BBC has verified videos showing blasts at the port of Latakia in Syria, with footage appearing to show extensive damage to ships and parts of the port.

[Max Peck]

Now do the Tartus naval base.

[Isgrimnur]

Too late.

[Max Peck]

The ships are gone but the base infrastructure is still there. If they're going to smash everything that used to belong to Assad, they might as well smash everything that belongs to Putin while they're at it. Except I expect they won't, because it belongs to Putin.