Israel–United States relations and associated politics

[El Guapo]

Israeli cabinet approves ceasefire deal with Hezbollah. Well technically it's with Lebanon, but really Hezbollah. Fingers crossed that this sticks.

[Unagi]

Yeah - I don't get it.

What good is it, if they are terrorist why are they not just killing them all. Are they suddenly okay now with future attacks from these groups?

Are Hezzbollah or are Hezzbolla not, Lebabon.

One minute you are attacking Hezzbollah, and then the next you are working out a ceasefire with another party?

I can't imagine the resolve around a ceasefire between Lebabon and Israel would extend to the people that Lebabon claims to have no control over. Right?

[Max Peck]

The elevator pitch for the terms of the ceasefire agreement:

The agreement reportedly calls for a 60-day halt in fighting that would see Israeli troops retreat to their side of the border while requiring Hezbollah to end its armed presence in a broad swath of southern Lebanon. President Joe Biden said Tuesday that the deal is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday (9 p.m. EST Tuesday).

Under the deal, thousands of Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers are to deploy to the region south of the Litani River. An international panel lead by the U.S. would monitor compliance by all sides. Biden said the deal “was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”

Israel has demanded the right to act should Hezbollah violate its obligations, but Lebanese officials rejected writing that into the proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the military would strike Hezbollah if the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, does not enforce the deal.

The ceasefire agreement is between Israel and Hezbollah (which is a powerful political/paramilitary faction in Lebanon but not the actual government or actual Lebanese military). Lebanon is one of many stakeholders in negotiating the agreement, given that it's their country that is being levelled and their civilians who are providing the collateral casualties.

Creating a nominally Hezbollah-free security buffer zone in southern Lebanon was always the realistic goal for Israel, so this outcome doesn't surprise me at all. It's probably no coincidence that it was drawn out until just after the US elections were concluded, which explains why Netanyahu has pivoted from an apparent goal of total victory to a negotiated agreement that allows Israeli citizens to return to the norther Israel until the next time hostilities with Hezbollah flare up.

A 60 day ceasefire essentially gets everyone through to the end of the Biden administration. I have no idea what happens in 2 months when Netanyahu transitions to being backed by Trump's Magamerica.

[Unagi]

So, I read this as: Hezbollah has agreed to let Lebanon take back control of part of their country (with UN support), the part that they used to launch rockets into Israel, in exchange for ... Israel will leave that area, but they will not be held to anything really - and nor will Hezbollah - because if Lebanon and the UN could enforce anything in this theater, none of this would be going on.


I mean, I'm all for peace - but this just reads like it's from another reality.


Peace was not negotiated - re-supply and reload was negotiated.

[Max Peck]

I haven't seen anyone claiming it's a peace deal. It's explicitly a ceasefire, with an expiration date.

[Unagi]

Biden said it was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.



peace
/pēs/
noun
1. a permanent cessation of hostilities

[Max Peck]

Biden said it was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.



peace
/pēs/
noun
1. a permanent cessation of hostilities

Peace, by that definition, has never and will never exist. Cessation of hostilities will never be permanent until we permanently rid the planet of intelligent life.

But I digress...

I suspect that he likely means that it is intended to lead to an enduring peace treaty, and he might even be sincere about that hope. Nonetheless, the current agreement is just a ceasefire that ends about a week after Trump takes office (I keep repeating that to various people today because it's super important to keep in mind).

I'd expect that a key indication of whether the involved parties are actually committed to a more enduring peace will be to see what happens with the civilian populations that have been displaced from northern Israel and southern Lebanon. If they're allowed to return in the next couple of months, then perhaps the powers that be are taking this seriously. Or the civilians are being sacrificed on the altar of realpolitik -- it could go either way in this timeline.

My personal expectation is that the ceasefire will largely hold up for the 60 period, possibly with some limited FAFOing, but that all hell breaks loose in some form or another not long after that.

[Unagi]

Peace, by that definition, has never and will never exist. Cessation of hostilities will never be permanent until we permanently rid the planet of intelligent life.

But I digress...

Yeah, yeah - I know - and still Biden said it... Still again, I think most people would also be okay with, say... maybe a year or two ?

[Max Peck]

One weird side effect of the Syrian uprising is that nobody has talked about Israel since it started. Funny that.

Anyway, here's Wonderwall a story about Amnesty International:

Amnesty report concludes Israel's actions against Palestinians in Gaza constitute genocide

A new report from Amnesty International found that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in its nearly 14-month-long campaign in Gaza that has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced most of the enclave's population.

The report, published Wednesday, said the ongoing assault on Gaza met the legal threshold for the crime of genocide after Amnesty spent months analyzing incidents and statements of Israeli officials.

"Our research reveals that, for months, Israel has persisted in committing genocidal acts, fully aware of the irreparable harm it was inflicting on Palestinians in Gaza," Amnesty International secretary general Agnès Callamard said in a news release on Wednesday.

"It continued to do so in defiance of countless warnings about the catastrophic humanitarian situation and of legally binding decisions from the International Court of Justice ordering Israel to take immediate measures to enable the provision of humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza."

Israel, which has repeatedly rejected any allegation of genocide, called the report "entirely false" in a statement posted Thursday by its Foreign Affairs Ministry on X, formerly Twitter. It said Israel has respected international law and has a right to defend itself after the cross-border Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, 2023.

[El Guapo]

One weird side effect of the Syrian uprising is that nobody has talked about Israel since it started. Funny that.

Are you suggesting that Israel was behind the Syrian uprising?

[Max Peck]

One weird side effect of the Syrian uprising is that nobody has talked about Israel since it started. Funny that.

Are you suggesting that Israel was behind the Syrian uprising?

No, I am not suggesting that, because saying that would be weird. I do believe that the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah and the IRGC, in particular, played a significant role in the success of the uprising by cutting the feet out from under key external supporters of the Assad regime, but that is far from saying they were behind it. That would be the stuff of crackpot antisemitic conspiracy theories.

Are you suggesting I'm a antisemitic crackpot?

Look at the date of the previous post in the thread. Do you remember when the uprising kicked off? It was a joke about how literally (in the classical sense of the word) nobody (here) has been talking about the situation in Gaza, or the several relatively small ceasefire violations (by both sides) in Lebanon since the Syrian civil war flared up again. At a meta level, it is an observation that people are easily distracted by new shiny things and can only keep track of so many crises at any one time. It amused me, so I drew attention to it.

[El Guapo]

One weird side effect of the Syrian uprising is that nobody has talked about Israel since it started. Funny that.

Are you suggesting that Israel was behind the Syrian uprising?

No, I am not suggesting that, because saying that would be weird. I do believe that the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah and the IRGC, in particular, played a significant role in the success of the uprising by cutting the feet out from under key external supporters of the Assad regime, but that is far from saying they were behind it. That would be the stuff of crackpot antisemitic conspiracy theories.

Are you suggesting I'm a antisemitic crackpot?

Look at the date of the previous post in the thread. Do you remember when the uprising kicked off? It was a joke about how literally (in the classical sense of the word) nobody (here) has been talking about the situation in Gaza, or the several relatively small ceasefire violations (by both sides) in Lebanon since the Syrian civil war flared up again. At a meta level, it is an observation that people are easily distracted by new shiny things and can only keep track of so many crises at any one time. It amused me, so I drew attention to it.

Just checking.

[El Guapo]

Yesterday Netanyahu gave testimony in his corruption trial. I hadn't realized that the trial had started.

I will give credit for Israeli institutions for getting to this stage at least, where American institutions failed so thoroughly.

[Max Peck]

Netanyahu has a new front for his war. Nice.

Israel plans to expand Golan settlements after fall of Assad

Israel's government has approved a plan to encourage the expansion of settlements in the occupied Golan Heights.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the move was necessary because a "new front" had opened up on Israel's border with Syria after the fall of the Assad regime to an Islamist-led rebel alliance.

Netanyahu said he wanted to double the population of the Golan Heights, which Israel seized during the 1967 Six-Day War and is considered illegally occupied under international law.

Israeli forces moved into a buffer zone separating the Golan Heights from Syria in the days following Assad's departure, saying the change of control in Damascus meant ceasefire arrangements had "collapsed".

Despite the move, Netanyahu said in a statement on Sunday evening that Israel has "no interest in a conflict with Syria".

"We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground," he said.

There are more than 30 Israeli settlements in the Golan Heights, which are home to an estimated 20,000 people. They are considered illegal under international law, which Israel disputes.

The settlers live alongside some 20,000 Syrians, most of them Druze Arabs who did not flee when the area came under Israeli control.

Netanyahu said Israel would "continue to hold on to [the territory], make it flourish and settle it".

The announcement comes a day after Syria's new de-facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa criticised Israel for its ongoing strikes on military targets in the country, which have reportedly targeted military facilities.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has documented more than 450 Israeli air strikes in Syria since 8 December, including 75 since Saturday evening.

[El Guapo]

Trials related to the mob violence in the Netherlands are ongoing. Looks like a lot was coordinated in a WhatsApp group. One thing that's darkly funny:

Shortly before 11 p.m., a user posted, "Let's go on a massive hunt for Jews in the city," and "I'm so disappointed that hardly any Jews were beaten."

Shortly after, a flurry of messages are posted saying, "GATHER CENTRAL STATION," "NOW OR NEVER," and "WE MUST MAKE THOSE JEWS FEEL WHAT THEY DID TO OUR BROTHERS."

Following this, several videos of Maccabi fans getting beaten or chased were posted, with many responses that celebrated the violence following.

Others posted various items they had taken from the Maccabi fans; one posted a passport, another a phone.

The WhatsApp group was centrally featured in the prosecution's statements during the trial, which began on Wednesday.

The prosecutor also referenced the messages in the group chat as evidence that the violence was primarily driven by anger over Israeli actions in Gaza rather than hatred for Jews.

"In this case, there was no evidence of … a terrorist intent, and the violence was not motivated by antisemitic sentiment. The violence was influenced by the situation in Gaza, not by antisemitism," the prosecutor said.

Yes, other than people saying "let's go on a massive hunt for Jews in the city" there was no evidence of anti-Semitic intent.

edit: forgot the link.

[hepcat]

You're the kind of kid who said "Candyman" three times in front of a mirror a lot, aren't you?

Sigh...large font replies in 3....2....

[El Guapo]

You're the kind of kid who said "Candyman" three times in front of a mirror a lot, aren't you?

Sigh...large font replies in 3....2....

Hey, what's safer to discuss on the internet than Israel and anti-semitism?

[hepcat]

...


OH SHIT

[Victoria Raverna]