Syria - civil war incoming?

[Alefroth]

Is the location of the ships actually unknown?

[Isgrimnur]

Reuters

Satellite imagery show that Russian naval ships have left Moscow's base at Tartous on Syria's coast and some have dropped anchor offshore following the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by rebel forces.

An image taken on Dec. 9 by Planet Labs showed at least three vessels in Russia’s Mediterranean fleet, including two guided missile frigates and an oiler, moored around 13 km (eight miles) northwest of Tartous. The rest of the fleet could not be immediately located in satellite imagery.

[Max Peck]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

[El Guapo]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

I understand that they have a port there already, although it sounds like it's not nearly as advanced / built up as the existing facilities in Syria.

[Holman]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

They could presumably head out of the Med and up to St Peterburg, although the optics of regional retreat would be terrible for Putin.

[Max Peck]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

They could presumably head out of the Med and up to St Peterburg, although the optics of regional retreat would be terrible for Putin.

The chatter I've seen claims that they can't make it that far without any friendly ports to call on along the way.

[Holman]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

They could presumably head out of the Med and up to St Peterburg, although the optics of regional retreat would be terrible for Putin.

The chatter I've seen claims that they can't make it that far without any friendly ports to call on along the way.

What the hell kind of major power ocean navy can't sail 5,000 nautical miles?

[Isgrimnur]

The kind that has to bring tugs along when it deploys its one aircraft carrier.

[Grifman]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

They could presumably head out of the Med and up to St Peterburg, although the optics of regional retreat would be terrible for Putin.

The chatter I've seen claims that they can't make it that far without any friendly ports to call on along the way.

What the hell kind of major power ocean navy can't sail 5,000 nautical miles?

Ships have to refuel, the U.S. Arleigh Burke class destroyer has a range of 4,400 miles, and I think most of the Russian ships are smaller and have a much lower range. And there are not a lot of friendly ports between Syria and the Baltic. If they don’t have a tanker, they don’t have the fuel to get back to Russia.

[Max Peck]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

They could presumably head out of the Med and up to St Peterburg, although the optics of regional retreat would be terrible for Putin.

The chatter I've seen claims that they can't make it that far without any friendly ports to call on along the way.

What the hell kind of major power ocean navy can't sail 5,000 nautical miles?

That's generally the point that was being made -- Russia's ability to project naval power has always been aspirational rather than real (aside from their nuclear submarine fleet, perhaps). Under normal circumstances, the bolt hole for the Med fleet would likely be Sevastopol, but Turkey won't grant them passage and even if they did, there's a non-zero chance that Ukraine would just start sinking the ships when they showed up in the Black Sea.

[Brian]

It's not like Russia has ever had problems like this before.

[Alefroth]

It'd be pretty sweet to see some Ukrainian drones launched against the ships in the Med.

[Holman]

I've seen some speculation that they might make for port in Tobruk if all else fails. Apparently the warlord that controls that part of Libya is on good terms with Russia.

They could presumably head out of the Med and up to St Peterburg, although the optics of regional retreat would be terrible for Putin.

The chatter I've seen claims that they can't make it that far without any friendly ports to call on along the way.

What the hell kind of major power ocean navy can't sail 5,000 nautical miles?

Ships have to refuel, the U.S. Arleigh Burke class destroyer has a range of 4,400 miles, and I think most of the Russian ships are smaller and have a much lower range. And there are not a lot of friendly ports between Syria and the Baltic. If they don’t have a tanker, they don’t have the fuel to get back to Russia.

I thought I'd read that they do have an oiler with them. In Western navies, every fleet does.

[Grifman]

Omigosh:



The way he holds to the reporters hands for comfort. How many thousands are going through this now.

[Victoria Raverna]

The cell is big for a single person. So they released everyone that was in that room and left him alone in that cell?

[Isgrimnur]

He was just happy to have all that room for activities.

[El Guapo]

The cell is big for a single person. So they released everyone that was in that room and left him alone in that cell?

Maybe they opened the door to let everyone out, and didn't stay to see that there was a guy who wasn't able to move left behind. Who knows.

[hepcat]

He also may have been hiding, The people usually entering that cell without armed guards pushing them were probably not there for good reasons.

[hepcat]

Sky News ran a piece on the fear of retribution against Assad's sect, the Alawites after his fall. Hopefully sectarian violence isn't going to be the end result of everything.

[El Guapo]

Sky News ran a piece on the fear of retribution against Assad's sect, the Alawites after his fall. Hopefully sectarian violence isn't going to be the end result of everything.

This is part of and a result of the colonial government playbook, incidentally. Typically colonial powers would pick a minority group like this and give them a dominant role in the colonial government. That gives the colonial power one group in the country with a genuine commitment to continued colonial rule, as they would have to worry about ethnic retribution should the colonial government fall. Sometimes (as in Syria) the colonial elite would hold on to power after the colonial power left, but ultimately there's a clock on minority rule.

[Isgrimnur]

Why would they be afraid of losing power? Are those without it treated badly or something?

[hepcat]

Because of the risk of retribution. In Syria, the dominant sect(s) believe that since the Assad family were Alawite, that that sect was receiving unfair priority in all things.

[Max Peck]

That isn't just a matter of perception. The leadership elites in Assad's state bureaucracy and security apparatus absolutely were Alawites, and Assad's support was strongest among the Alawite population, if for no other reason than that they depended on him to protect them from other Islamist sects that consider them to be heretics. Things could very well get hairy, but it's not so simple as the majority of the Syrian population being angry that the Alawites were Assad's favorites.

[hepcat]

I assumed their belief that the Assad regime was playing favorites with the Alawites was not unfounded. Considering the people we’re talking about, I'm betting that's what everyone is assuming...and rightfully so, I imagine.

Sectarian violence tends to involve everyone though, not just those who were directly benefiting from the Assad regime. So it's going to be ugly if it grows into that.

[Victoria Raverna]

He also may have been hiding, The people usually entering that cell without armed guards pushing them were probably not there for good reasons.

New update on that. apparently the guy was not a long time prisoner of Assad regime but a former Syrian intelligence officer who worked for Assad regime.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/16/midd ... index.html

[Max Peck]

Let me guess... Netanyahu will need a new DMZ buffer between the one he's just occupied and the rest of Syria. I'm starting to think he might be a bit of an opportunist.

Netanyahu says Israeli troops will occupy a buffer zone inside Syria for the foreseeable future

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israeli forces will stay in a buffer zone on the Syrian border, seized after the ouster of Syria’s President Bashar Assad, until another arrangement is in place “that ensures Israel’s security.”

Netanyahu made the comments from the summit of Mount Hermon — the highest peak in the area — inside Syria, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the border with the Israel-held Golan Heights.

It appeared to be the first time a sitting Israeli leader had set foot that far into Syria. Netanyahu said he had been on the same mountaintop 53 years ago as a soldier, but the summit’s importance to Israel’s security has only increased given recent events.

Israel seized a swath of southern Syria along the border with the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights days after Assad was ousted by rebels last week.

Israel’s capture of the buffer zone, a roughly 400-square-kilometer (155-square-mile) demilitarized area in Syrian territory, has sparked condemnation, with critics accusing Israel of violating a 1974 ceasefire and possibly exploiting the chaos in Syria in the wake of Assad’s ouster to make a land grab.

[Max Peck]

Probably a good thing, if he lives up to his promises.

US scraps $10m bounty for arrest of Syria's new leader Sharaa

The US has scrapped a $10m (£7.9m) reward for the arrest of Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, following meetings between senior diplomats and representatives from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf said the discussion with Sharaa was "very productive", and he came across as "pragmatic".

The US delegation arrived in the capital, Damascus, after HTS overthrew the Bashar al-Assad regime less than a fortnight ago. Washington still designates it as a terrorist group.

A State Department spokesperson confirmed that the diplomats discussed "transition principles" supported by the US, regional events and the need to fight against IS.

[Max Peck]

It ain't over till it's over.

Assad loyalists kill 14 in clash with Syria's new ruling forces

Syria's new rebel-led authorities say supporters of ousted President Bashar al-Assad have killed 14 interior ministry troops in an "ambush" in the west of the country.

They say 10 other troops were wounded in the fighting on Tuesday near the Mediterranean port of Tartous, a stronghold of Assad's minority Alawite Muslim sect.

The clashes with pro-Assad loyalists are the first direct challenge to the authority of Syria's de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Security forces launched an operation in Tartous province on Thursday, according to state news agency Sana, in a bid to "restore security, stability and civil peace".

Sana reported that the forces had "neutralised... a number of remnants of Assad's militias" in the Tartous countryside, and that it was pursuing others.

Reports say the security forces had earlier been ambushed as they tried to arrest a former officer in connection to his role at the notorious Saydnaya prison, close to the capital, Damascus.