Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

[Zarathud]

So why provoke a crisis now?

They can't resist the opportunity to cause suffering, most likely.

Dogma, plus Putin wants Ukrainian support shut down.

[El Guapo]

Musk himself is also in mild hot water himself, so may have a personal interest in the government doing little to nothing before Trump's inauguration.

[Blackhawk]

Deep inside, I have the same burn-it-down, 'let them reap what they sowed' urge. But I'm in the category that is least insulated against it all burning down, and I have enough compassion to recognize the impact that it would have on millions of people in the same boat (or in a leakier one) as I, many of whom do not support Trump or the GOP.

I can't wish for millions to suffer in order to get feel-good revenge on millions of others.

Then again, if it's the only way for that particular lesson to be learned, I'd accept it as the price for a better future.

[gilraen]

Deep inside, I have the same burn-it-down, 'let them reap what they sowed' urge. But I'm in the category that is least insulated against it all burning down, and I have enough compassion to recognize the impact that it would have on millions of people in the same boat (or in a leakier one) as I, many of whom do not support Trump or the GOP.

I can't wish for millions to suffer in order to get feel-good revenge on millions of others.

Then again, if it's the only way for that particular lesson to be learned, I'd accept it as the price for a better future.

I feel bad for folks like you, that rely on a functional government to, well, function. I really do. But at this point, you said it yourself, "if it's the only way for that particular lesson to be learned..." I don't have a lot of faith that the lesson would be learned but the entire next 4 years are going to be a lesson in how many things need to burn down for any recovery to be remotely possible.

[El Guapo]

I understand the feeling, but I certainly don't want Trump supporters (or anyone else) to suffer just to prove a point or what have you. At the same time, what the Trump administration is working towards is horrendous, and Democrats should under no circumstances help them make their craziness more workable or functional.

[Alefroth]

And yes, Musk's effectively the shadow president. We’ll see how long those two egos can co-exist.

Several lawmakers and former lawmakers have publicly referred to President Musk and Vice President Trump, I'm sure to accelerate the conflict between the two.

[Smoove_B]

There was a time when I thought having everyone suffer would make a difference. Then I saw them all claw back the COVID-19 changes (funding, support, etc...) that were made to help people as fast as they possibly could once the winter 2022 wave was over. I can't imagine what it would take at this point in terms of everyone having daily suffering for there to be long-lasting change. I honestly don't think it'll be possible.

The next shutdown will squeeze and disproportionately impact even more those that are already at the margins; it's not going to affect the majority of Americans in an appreciable way. It certainly didn't in 2018/19 when it was shut down for over a month - the longest shutdown in our nation's history.

[El Guapo]

There was a time when I thought having everyone suffer would make a difference. Then I saw them all claw back the COVID-19 changes (funding, support, etc...) that were made to help people as fast as they possibly could once the winter 2022 wave was over. I can't imagine what it would take at this point in terms of everyone having daily suffering for there to be long-lasting change. I honestly don't think it'll be possible.

The next shutdown will squeeze and disproportionately impact even more those that are already at the margins; it's not going to affect the majority of Americans in an appreciable way. It certainly didn't in 2018/19 when it was shut down for over a month - the longest shutdown in our nation's history.

I remember when everything shut down in April 2020 thinking "well at least Trump will almost certainly lose resoundingly with everything shut down and the economy presumably hurting". And then he still almost won!

[Grifman]

For maybe the first time I will applaud Trump for something - he wants to get rid of the meaningless debt limit:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna184820

This is something the Dems should get behind.

[Smoove_B]

I remember when everything shut down in April 2020 thinking "well at least Trump will almost certainly lose resoundingly with everything shut down and the economy presumably hurting". And then he still almost won!

You probably forgot how he delayed the release of the CARES Act checks to everyone to make sure his name was on them and part of the mailing.

[El Guapo]

I remember when everything shut down in April 2020 thinking "well at least Trump will almost certainly lose resoundingly with everything shut down and the economy presumably hurting". And then he still almost won!

You probably forgot how he delayed the release of the CARES Act checks to everyone to make sure his name was on them and part of the mailing.

https://www.instagram.com/snlreelz/reel/DAmq2bJP9r6/

I think about this SNL debate sketch a lot.

Dole: Under President Whitmore's adminsitration, over 70 million Americans were incinerated by space aliens!
Whitmore: The average American is better off under my policies.
Dole: The average American is dead!

[hepcat]

For maybe the first time I will applaud Trump for something - he wants to get rid of the meaningless debt limit:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna184820

This is something the Dems should get behind.

From what I've read, vice president Trump's plan to raise the debt ceiling took a lot of folks by surprise in his party. They're scrambling to get behind it when they've railed against it for years. It will be interesting to see what comes of this when/if the old guard steps in.

[LordMortis]

https://apnews.com/live/government-shut ... mp-updates

Lots of good stuff in these updates on the AP

Was this the money shot?

In the past, Democrats have been open to the idea of eliminating the debt ceiling, as Trump has suggested. Sen. Elizabeth Warren backed the proposal earlier today, saying, “I agree with President-elect Trump that Congress should terminate the debt limit and never again govern by hostage taking.”

Or the perennial favorite worries of Susan Collins

“President Trump’s last-minute request that the debt ceiling be eliminated throws a whole other issue into the debate,” said Sen. Susan Collins, the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee. She said “it’s a real worry” that the government could shut down and federal workers would not get paid.

And so end (for the moment) my moratorium on the news. Shame on you OO for making read so much of it.

Also shots fired!

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2 ... g-00195310

He (Jeffries) also asked his caucus who his negotiating partner would be, and asked if he should be calling Musk.

[Blackhawk]

There was a time when I thought having everyone suffer would make a difference. Then I saw them all claw back the COVID-19 changes (funding, support, etc...) that were made to help people as fast as they possibly could once the winter 2022 wave was over. I can't imagine what it would take at this point in terms of everyone having daily suffering for there to be long-lasting change. I honestly don't think it'll be possible.

A fraction of a percent died. Maybe one percent had an immediate family member die. Long COVID had was subtle and slow, and people didn't always associate it directly with COVID (people are like children and dogs - if consequences don't immediately follow the cause, they don't form proper associations between the two.)

There wasn't enough suffering, and it wasn't widespread enough to change the way people think. What suffering it did cause was carefully spun by the right to be either a lie, a conspiracy, or the left's fault, or they changed the argument to be about the economic and social impacts alone (remember - basing your opinions and conclusions on actual documented fact isn't how the populace has come to think.)

[El Guapo]

There was a time when I thought having everyone suffer would make a difference. Then I saw them all claw back the COVID-19 changes (funding, support, etc...) that were made to help people as fast as they possibly could once the winter 2022 wave was over. I can't imagine what it would take at this point in terms of everyone having daily suffering for there to be long-lasting change. I honestly don't think it'll be possible.

A fraction of a percent died. Maybe one percent had an immediate family member die. Long COVID had was subtle and slow, and people didn't always associate it directly with COVID (people are like children and dogs - if consequences don't immediately follow the cause, they don't form proper associations between the two.)

There wasn't enough suffering, and it wasn't widespread enough to change the way people think. What suffering it did cause was carefully spun by the right to be either a lie, a conspiracy, or the left's fault, or they changed the argument to be about the economic and social impacts alone (remember - basing your opinions and conclusions on actual documented fact isn't how the populace has come to think.)

Yeah, that's a good point. Almost everyone had interactions with the COVID response, very few had interactions with the worst parts of Covid.

[Alefroth]

For maybe the first time I will applaud Trump for something - he wants to get rid of the meaningless debt limit:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna184820

This is something the Dems should get behind.

They don't need it as a hostage anymore, so better to kill it than let the Dems use it as a hostage.

Also, deficit spending bad when Dems do it, okay when Republicans do it.

[Max Peck]

Getting rid of the debt ceiling makes perfect sense, since it maximizes the speed at which Trump can redistribute the wealth of the nation to his merry band of oligarchs. Hell, he could blow the entire budget just buying up Bitcoin and Dogecoin for the national strategic crypto reserve at whatever price Leon tells him to pay.

[Alefroth]

Conveniently, Trump's suspension of the debt ceiling proposal expires right after the midterms, when the GOP may be in the minority again.

[Alefroth]

The Musk-Johnson spending bill fails with 3 dozen Republicans voting against it.

[hepcat]

Ooof, President Elect Musk is going to be livid.

[Max Peck]

The technical term is "Wormtongue-Elect Musk".

[hepcat]

I can’t wait for the ego clash that’s coming. Bannon was like Musk lite and look how long he lasted. Plus, Musk’s ego won’t let him turn into a submissive little boot licker like Bannon after the break up. So there’s a better than average chance there will be a fight on social media between what is essentially two teenagers. And since neither will be able to let it go, it will probably last for the rest of Trump’s life.

[Holman]

I can’t wait for the ego clash that’s coming. Bannon was like Musk lite and look how long he lasted. Plus, Musk’s ego won’t let him turn into a submissive little boot licker like Bannon after the break up. So there’s a better than average chance there will be a fight on social media between what is essentially two teenagers. And since neither will be able to let it go, it will probably last for the rest of Trump’s life.

We can only hope.

On the other hand, a few billion dollars under the table covers a multitude of sins.

[Alefroth]

It's fun watching the MAGA on social media unable to agree whether the no votes are RINOs or the yes votes.

[Isgrimnur]

Opposes 38 (R)

Spoiler:

Aaron Bean Fla.
Andy Biggs Ariz.
Josh Brecheen Okla.
Tim Burchett Tenn.
Eric BurlisonMo.
Kat Cammack Fla.
Michael Cloud Texas
Andrew Clyde Ga.
Elijah Crane Ariz.
John Curtis Utah
Jeff Duncan S.C.
Russ Fulcher Idaho
Bob Good Va.
Paul A. Gosar Ariz.
Andy Harris Md.
Wesley Hunt Texas
Doug Lamborn Colo.
Debbie Lesko Ariz.
Greg Lopez Colo.
Morgan Luttrell Texas
Nancy Mace S.C.
Thomas Massie Ky.
Richard McCormick Ga.
Cory Mills Fla.
Alex Mooney W.Va.
Blake D. Moore Utah
Nathaniel Moran Texas
Ralph Norman S.C.
Andrew Ogles Tenn.
Scott Perry Pa.
Bill Posey Fla.
Matt Rosendale Mont.
Chip Roy Texas
David Schweikert Ariz.
Keith Self Texas
Victoria Spartz Ind.
Tom Tiffany Wis.
Beth Van Duyne Texas

Did not vote 9 (GOP)

Spoiler:

Brian Babin Texas
Mike Garcia Calif.
Kay Granger Texas
Mike Kelly Pa.
Blaine Luetkemeyer Mo.
C. McMorris Rodgers Wash.
Dan Newhouse Wash.
Greg Steube Fla.
Roger Williams Texas

[Grifman]

And yes, Musk's effectively the shadow president. We’ll see how long those two egos can co-exist.

Several lawmakers and former lawmakers have publicly referred to President Musk and Vice President Trump, I'm sure to accelerate the conflict between the two.

I think the Democrats should use every opportunity they have to play this up. They should speak if Musk as if he is running things and play to Trump’s vanity.

[Grifman]

For maybe the first time I will applaud Trump for something - he wants to get rid of the meaningless debt limit:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna184820

This is something the Dems should get behind.

They don't need it as a hostage anymore, so better to kill it than let the Dems use it as a hostage.

Also, deficit spending bad when Dems do it, okay when Republicans do it.

Yes, but long term this is better for the country as a whole, and the Republicans have constantly used it to harass Democratic presidents. It’s best gone.

[El Guapo]

For maybe the first time I will applaud Trump for something - he wants to get rid of the meaningless debt limit:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna184820

This is something the Dems should get behind.

They don't need it as a hostage anymore, so better to kill it than let the Dems use it as a hostage.

Also, deficit spending bad when Dems do it, okay when Republicans do it.

Yes, but long term this is better for the country as a whole, and the Republicans have constantly used it to harass Democratic presidents. It’s best gone.

My understanding is that they're not trying to get rid of it (which would be good) but just to suspend it for two years (so that they can use it in 2027 if needed).

[Smoove_B]

Correct. It's only a problem (a nonstop problem) when a Democrat is President. With that changing, now it can not only be increased but completely suspended! It's magic how that works.

[El Guapo]

If I had to put the odds of a shutdown now, I'd say slightly above 50/50, maybe 55%? Feels like no major actors (except Musk?) at this point *want* a shutdown, so you'd think they'll figure it out but...not a lot of time left.

[LordMortis]

I was under 25% when this first came around. Now I'd go up to 25-50 on the 50 side of things. I wouldn't be surprised either way and I don't even know how to feel any more. I don't want it but it's high time the GOP owns the mess they keep making worse or it would be if they didn't hold so much hostage.

[Skinypupy]

This morning, my boss asked me to send him a list of the business I had that would be "at risk" in January if the government shut down. Told him my entire month of revenue would simply vanish if there's a 30-day shutdown, so prepare accordingly.

I used to panic about those sort of requests, but I realized I simply don't care anymore. I'm completely just numb to it now. My paycheck disappears? Oh well...not much I can do. I've got some $$ stashed so I won't starve.

I especially love when I get a call from the brand new VP of sales asking me, "What are you proactively doing to mitigate this risk?". Um...literally nothing at all? I sell training to federal employees and training cannot happen if the federal agencies are shut down and no one who is supposed to attend is allowed to work. What the fuck do you expect me to do about that? She stammered something about "ensuring that we don't put all our eggs in one basket" before rushing off the call. LOL, ok.

[El Guapo]

This morning, my boss asked me to send him a list of the business I had that would be "at risk" in January if the government shut down. Told him my entire month of revenue would simply vanish if there's a 30-day shutdown, so prepare accordingly.

I used to panic about those sort of requests, but I realized I simply don't care anymore. I'm completely just numb to it now. My paycheck disappears? Oh well...not much I can do. I've got some $$ stashed so I won't starve.

I especially love when I get a call from the brand new VP of sales asking me, "What are you proactively doing to mitigate this risk?". Um...literally nothing at all? I sell training to federal employees and training cannot happen if the federal agencies are shut down and no one who is supposed to attend is allowed to work. What the fuck do you expect me to do about that? She stammered something about "ensuring that we don't put all our eggs in one basket" before rushing off the call. LOL, ok.

You should start a side business as a therapist / counselor to federal employees.

[El Guapo]

NY Times live feed on the shutdown developments.

Latest gives me some hope that this may be avoided:

Other lawmakers exiting the session said they expected a one vote on a government funding package, disaster relief and payments to farmers, minus a debt ceiling increase that caused Republicans to oppose a similar bill on Thursday.

Speaker Mike Johnson exited a closed meeting with House Republicans and said he intended to move forward with legislation today, though he said some details remain to be worked out. “There is unanimous agreement in the room that we need to move forward,” he told reporters. “We will not have a government shutdown, and we will meet our obligations.”

[Smoove_B]

I feel like all this other stuff is noise and the only thing that really matters is how they're going to propose handling the debt ceiling.

[Alefroth]

Why payments to farmers?

[El Guapo]

I feel like all this other stuff is noise and the only thing that really matters is how they're going to propose handling the debt ceiling.

It's a little baffling why the debt ceiling is an issue for Republicans now. They're going to have the majority in January and can pass whatever extension they want then. I think Trump would rather the extension happen now, but no one's going to care in January - they only care when Democratic presidents want to extend it.

[Smoove_B]

It's because they're so excited to start wrecking shit in a month, they can't help themselves when they see such an amazing opportunity to do it again right now. They're in full reflex mode and don't know how to handle this budget in a way that doesn't undermine their long-held position on obstruction when a Democrat is President, given the opportunity.

EDIT: So here is a screen shot from Blue Sky (we can't embed skeets, right?) from a GOP internal presentation on the current debt ceiling proposal:

While we wait to find out wtf the Republicans are gonna do here, some notes on the debt limit situation and House Republican leadership's internal plan, posted by Axios' Juliegrace Brufke

https://bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsk ... r6cj74js2d

But as someone noted:

The key word is "mandatory" spending, which refers to money already spent, by law. 75% of mandatory spending is spent on Social Security and Medicare, which are $3.1 Trillion this year. This draft agreement amounts to cutting 80% of Social Security and Medicare.

https://bsky.app/profile/jenvictor.bsky ... r76rairc2s

[GreenGoo]

They don't understand how the government they are running actually works, apparently. :shockedface: :gianteyerolls:

[RunningMn9]

I would like it noted that I *definitely* want Trump supporters to suffer. I want them to suffer to such a degree that they might not be able to recover from it.

I don’t want innocent people to suffer, but innocent people are going to suffer regardless. I just don’t want them to suffer alone.