Canada 2015-25 and Beyond: New Hope or Phantom Menace?

[GreenGoo]

I'm not panicking. I'm just voicing out frustration via observation. Is that fair? FFS, Dude. Relax. I'm not the media.

Relax? No. I'm super fucking angry about drumpf and watching him use the same techniques over and over, for 9 years, only to have Canadians start falling for it like it's a new super effective secret genius plan, is embarrassing. For the country.

Second, he does not care one wit about Canadian border security or defense spending. Expressing exasperation over his "obsession" with these topics shows how easily his aggression works. Hepcat, who has had to deal with drumpf in a daily basis for years, understands this. Drumpf's "obsessed" with these topics BECAUSE you are frustrated with these topics. I guarantee you he's said a lot of other crap that got no reaction from the media or Canadians and has let it drop because he didn't get the reaction he wanted. He throws everything at the wall to see what sticks, and these topics have stuck. That's why he seems to care about them.

Hepcat and I explained this pretty clearly earlier. You're free to disagree, but you'd be wrong, and almost a decade's worth of evidence and experience shows that.

Should we be concerned about tariffs? Absolutely. Should we be concerned about drumpf's obsession with Canada? Only in so much as we are currently the target of his bullying. Watching Canadians suggest giving drumpf what he wants (see: defense spending) so he'll lighten up makes no sense. It's like watching bully victims try to capitulate enough to have the bully stop bullying. That's not how bullies work, and that's not how drumpf thinks.

I'm frustrated, but only 50% of that is about drumpf. Smarten up, Canada.

[GreenGoo]

Unless Trump is lurking on the forum, there is no chance that giving people some space here to vent is going to somehow energize him.

Very few Canadians are within earshot of drumpf, yet he is more than aware of the mood of Canada and Canadian citizens.

Weird.

[GreenGoo]

To be fair, they've been talking more about the tariffs in recent days and the work that's being done behind the scenes for the retaliatory tariffs.

Yes, this is great and I hope they can come up with an effect plan. I'd like to believe that they can.

That said, here's an article about the Premier of Alberta claiming it's everyone else that's the problem.

I'm not causing disunity, you are!

[IceBear]

Ok, I don't disagree with you on giving in to the bully. That said if we have signed an agreement to spend 2% GDP then we should do that, especially since we can no longer rely on the US. As for the border spending, living in the Toronto area I would love for stronger borders just to help with the gun issue.

Again, I don't like doing what the bully demands if we're doing it just to appease him, but we need stronger borders and to meet our spending commitment. We also need to diversify our trade

[Max Peck]

That said if we have signed an agreement to spend 2% GDP then we should do that

The 2% GDP on defence spending is a NATO commitment. All NATO members signed on for it, and most continue to fall short. Even our previous Conservative governments failed to follow through on it. For all that Harper loved to deploy the Canadian military, he couldn't be bothered to properly fund it.

[IceBear]

Oh, I know. I know that most of these issues go back decades over different governments even if Poillieve wants everyone to think it 100% Trudeau's fault

[GreenGoo]

Border security for ingress is not the same as border security for egress. Keeping guns out of Canada would have no impact on satisfying American border interests.

I'm not opposed to Canada meeting our treaty obligations. As Max points out, we are hardly the worst offender, and meeting those obligations again, would do nothing to satisfy drumpf's complaints. *He* doesn't get the money. Not even NATO gets the money. And the money spent has no requirement to be used on NATO missions. In essence, as long as we are meeting our NATO obligations in terms of manpower and equipment (which I admit I have no idea if we are or not at this point in time), another 2% GDP would be invisible to NATO and America. Hell, we could cook the books and tell him we're spending another 2%. How would he know? But of course we'd know, and we don't control people like an authoritarian state does, so word would get out. It wasn't a serious suggestion, just and outlandish one to illustrate the idiocy of drumpf's demands.

Given that our military is almost entirely used to project power or keep the peace at our allies request, often with no Canadian interests besides supporting our allies, I'm ok with maintaining whatever funding our military requires, rather than an arbitrary number. Particularly when the ally making the most noise about it seems determined to become an economic opponent of Canada. If Canadians determine that our military is underfunded, then we should spend more on it.

In the meantime, I don't think we should be rearranging our prioritizes to match what noises are coming out of drumpf on any particular day.

I mean, right? Our national policies should not be dictated to us by a foreign government. Particularly one in cahoots with Putin. That feels like it is self evident. Having a strong economic plan for the loudly proclaimed tariffs? Yes. Doing what drumpf says because he says it? Less so.

[Max Peck]

Unsurprisingly given my background (ex-military, retired federal public service in national defense and security), I'm strongly biased toward increasing defense spending to meet our NATO commitment at a minium. In some ways I should be a natural constituent for an actual conservative party, it's just that Canada doesn't have an actual conservative party. We have a populist right-wing party that calls itself "Conservative". Sound familiar?

[Rumpy]

I'm not panicking. I'm just voicing out frustration via observation. Is that fair? FFS, Dude. Relax. I'm not the media.

Relax? No. I'm super fucking angry about drumpf and watching him use the same techniques over and over, for 9 years, only to have Canadians start falling for it like it's a new super effective secret genius plan, is embarrassing. For the country.

Then I suggest not reading so much into what some of us say. Some of us are dealing with it and reacting in different ways and it's our way of processing it. Really , I get it as I've said before, you're frustrated, we're all frustrated, as we're all on the same boat as it's all been making us stressed out. Some of us just need to vent. It doesn't mean anything other than that. Like you say, we certainly don't need ulcers. And I completely agree that it's embarrassing, which is what I had remarked on. It's embarrassing for the number of times he's said it, and the number of times that the media constantly repeat it. The whole thing , tariffs included are so damned embarrassing. Can't we all agree now?

Hepcat and I explained this pretty clearly earlier. You're free to disagree, but you'd be wrong, and almost a decade's worth of evidence and experience shows that.

Actually, you'd be surprised, but I entirely agree with the both of you. It's not that don't agree with it, it's that I disagree with the method. Some of us just need the room the be able to vent, and it doesn't mean we don't get it just because we happen to mention something, so please don't misunderstand us.

And like I've said, I entirely agree that the more important thing are the tariffs right now. That's what Canada has been and needs to work on at the moment. The sooner we can all get this behind us, we'll all be better off. Let's get this thing in the rear-view mirror where it belongs. And by this I mean, everything. To say this election cycle has been nuts would be an understatement.

Tariffs-wise, I think the best thing Canada could do would be to hit hard and give him a taste of his own medicine.


This is all affecting us in different ways. This is currently my only real outlet for discussing politics. I've got an Aunt who's a full-on Trumpster as I've mentioned in the past, and several Uncles all in the States. I've also got a Sister living in WV with her boyfriend and his family who are all Trump supporters, and this means I can't easily talk with her about some of these things, because while she's very liberal leaning, others around her aren't.

[IceBear]

He might be distracted by Columbia for a few days...hopefully

[GreenGoo]

Tariffs-wise, I think the best thing Canada could do would be to hit hard and give him a taste of his own medicine.

Yes, we will have no choice but to do this, but you're mistaken if you think he is personally going to care. Handlers will tell him to back off, and he will, reluctantly.

However, in this first term some more sane people he had on staff got him to back off on some of his crazier crap, and he has expressed regret listening to them. This time around there are no sane people to even offer a cautionary word.

We'll see what happens. I'm going to say it here now for posterity. If it does come to tariffs/counter-tariffs, he will be very reluctant and slow to lift his, even as the American economy is hurt and the American public suffer (obviously we will too. Ugh). Possibly taking months to be convinced, eventually. At no point will he admit it was a bad idea, and when he does lift tariffs on us, he will publicly claim victory at the capitulation of his weak foes (yes, everyone is a foe or a toady to this guy. Some rare few are role models, but not in a good way).

We will do what we can, but we are not nearly as unified as the American government is behind drumpf. He's governing by fiat at this point. He can do what he wants, when he wants a lot of it will be rubber stamped same day. We are not nearly as agile when it comes to change. And that's without taking Poilievre into account. This really is just about the worst time for Canada to elect a populist with no real ideals or plans besides getting all the power he can. Another enraging aspect of all this.

Anyway, it's going to be interesting times, unfortunately.

[Rumpy]

Yeah, if there's one thing that we can agree on is that he doesn't seem to care with anything he does. And I've mentioned it before, but this term is like he swallowed a powerup. His last time was all about exploring the limits, now that he's back and seen inside the belly of the beast that is the U.S Government, without limits, and he's now out removing and dismantling anything he doesn't agree with. This is why I really hope that there's something that he isn't seeing that will come back to haunt him, and I also really hope someone is recording everything for posterity. And I continue to hope, because there has to be some somewhere, however slim it might be.

Agree with you about Polievre. I think we all do, actually. But my guess is that Trump was putting pressure on Trudeau to get him to resign and force an early election. If I had my guess, I'd guess it's not Polievre that he hopes gets elected, even while he wants to get all-buddy-buddy with Trump, but rather Danielle Smith, who was seen photographed with Trump and O'Leary a few weeks back. She's the one that seems more closely aligned, and I think she would be even worse than Polievre, who's all talk.

I've got a trip to Vermont coming up in July. It's actually a trip I take every year for a convention, and I can't help but feel worried in the back of my mind about certain aspects due to everything going on. I suspect it will be business as usual, but it just really sucks when there's so much uncertainty in the air.

[GreenGoo]

I do agree that Smith would be a great fit for drumpf's desire for a vassal state for Canada.

[Rumpy]

Regarding tariffs, I'm not entirely sure what tactic we should use beyond some of what we export the most to the U.S, and hit them hard with tariffs of our own. But regardless, I think those in industry towns closely linked to trade will be felt the hardest. I live in a nickel and copper mining town, with mines all around us and most of what we extract gets exported and becomes part of the production chain. The value of those metals are already low at the moment and the prospect of tariffs will likely bring it down further. Ironically and amusingly enough, the meteorite impact that hit us 500 billion years ago sent ejecta as far as Minnesota and South Dakota and the UP in Michigan, which is where most of those nickel and copper mines are found in the U.S, so in a roundabout way, America can thank Canada for an export that would end up sustaining them.

[IceBear]

The news up here just reported that the Canadian officials have heard that those around Trump are encouraging him to go ahead with tariffs

[hepcat]

Honestly, I think Canada should take a hard line with the US and double whatever Trump throws at them. Trump's cult won't last nearly as long as those driven by sincere patriotism for their country. As soon as a Trumper is inconvenienced in even the slightest manner at the grocery store by Trump's tariffs, they'll scream bloody murder.

I think folks need to stand up to this bully. Otherwise, it's just going to get worse and worse as he gets emboldened by a false sense of success. He needs a bloody nose.

[Punisher]

I think you put to much faith in trumpers.
What will happen is the if anything goes sideways trump will just spin it so it's someone else's fault and they will buy it.

[IceBear]

I think you put to much faith in trumpers.
What will happen is the if anything goes sideways trump will just spin it so it's someone else's fault and they will buy it.

This

[IceBear]

I can tell you what happens. Our economy crashes so our guys will capitulate with whatever he wants. As you say, 51st State wouldn't be good for the Republicans so it won't be that, but we will be taken over.

[Rumpy]

The news up here just reported that the Canadian officials have heard that those around Trump are encouraging him to go ahead with tariffs

I mean, that's not so surprising when he surrrounds himself with an echo chamber.

[IceBear]

Nope...that's the scary thing this time...no guardrails

[IceBear]

For no good reason either.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-me ... -1.7443771

U.S. President Donald Trump still plans to make good on his promise to issue tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday.

Leavitt said Trump is also still weighing fresh tariffs on China for Saturday.

Trump said last week he would announce 25 per cent tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1 unless the countries help tackle the twin issues of U.S. fentanyl trafficking and immigration.

[Blackhawk]

For the record, I think most of the Americans on this board are currently avoiding the conversation out of shame and humiliation.

The world is beginning to shun us and push us away. We have earned it.

[Smoove_B]

It really is shameful, yes. I hope Canada retaliates appropriately and overwhelmingly to demonstrate just how connected we are. Because apparently the only thing he's going to respond to is getting punched in the nose.

[Blackhawk]

It really is shameful, yes. I hope Canada retaliates appropriately and overwhelmingly to demonstrate just how connected we are. Because apparently the only thing he's going to respond to is getting punched in the nose.

It's not 'he.' It's us. We, collectively, need to be taught a lesson. Trump's approach needs to hurt the populace of this nation so badly that we drive him and his type out, and finally put the 1950s back in the past where it belongs. Another depression might do it.

And I say this knowing that I and mine would be among the most impacted. It's worth it if it saves the country in the future.

[Rumpy]

Yeah, unfortunately it might need to be hurt in order for such a reset to happen. I just hope it never comes to that. As allies we'd hate to see Americans hurt in such a manner, such is our empathy. But it's honestly kind of refreshing to hear you all speaking this way. It shows how much care you have for your Country. I appreciate you guys.

On the other hand, I feel Canada is still a great place to be in and I wish we could somehow be of help, rather than having to use our efforts to defend ourselves against tariffs, peacekeepers such as we are. And Canada's nature means we'll still end up helping you guys out in natural disasters such as fighting forest fires, because it's in our very nature to help out.

[IceBear]

However, given the size difference in our economies, whatever we do to hurt the US will end up hurting us more. Plus, I feel like that would be all the incentive Trump would need to REALLY punish us (maybe even with military).

Yesterday it sounded like Lutnick alluded to the fact that Feb 1st tariffs would be about the border and if we can prove we're doing everything we need to do to secure the border "out of respect for America" we might not get the tariffs until April 1st. The thing is, no one can assure our ministers that we've done enough. I believe Rubio and Lutnick both said it looks like Mexico and Canada have done some positive things for border security, neither of them could say if it was enough; "Trump needs to be convinced". So, that'll depend on his mood Saturday I guess

[Rumpy]

However, given the size difference in our economies, whatever we do to hurt the US will end up hurting us more. Plus, I feel like that would be all the incentive Trump would need to REALLY punish us (maybe even with military).

Sure, but on the other hand, he really has no idea how much tariffs against us will end up affecting the American economy. He's steadfast and resolved to do it, and therefore the only thing we can do is to do what we can by imposing our own and cutting him off. It'll hurt us, yes, but I think it's the best alternative to just sitting back and letting him take advantage of us. This situation is such that if we do nothing, he'll see us as weak and he'll possibly keep targeting us. If we retaliate, it will show we have a backbone. It's caught us in in situation where neither is all that good.

[stessier]

Yeah, unfortunately it might need to be hurt in order for such a reset to happen. I just hope it never comes to that. As allies we'd hate to see Americans hurt in such a manner, such is our empathy. But it's honestly kind of refreshing to hear you all speaking this way. It shows how much care you have for your Country. I appreciate you guys.

Please don't assume silence means we agree with or accept what is happening. I think most on this board think it stinks. At least in my case I'm silent just because there is nothing I can do and figured this was a better place to let y'all vent. I also think countries will should react in whatever way is in their interest and if that hurts the US, so be it.

[Blackhawk]

On the other hand, I feel Canada is still a great place to be in and I wish we could somehow be of help,

Marry me so I can move there?

[Rumpy]

Yeah, unfortunately it might need to be hurt in order for such a reset to happen. I just hope it never comes to that. As allies we'd hate to see Americans hurt in such a manner, such is our empathy. But it's honestly kind of refreshing to hear you all speaking this way. It shows how much care you have for your Country. I appreciate you guys.

Please don't assume silence means we agree with or accept what is happening. I think most on this board think it stinks. At least in my case I'm silent just because there is nothing I can do and figured this was a better place to let y'all vent. I also think countries will should react in whatever way is in their interest and if that hurts the US, so be it.

No worries dude. I appreciate you all as well It does really suck though when it feels there's nothing that can we can do. It's sometimes difficult to find the words to express everything going on. Hopefully in the future we can all share a drink.

[IceBear]

Well, I was hoping these tariffs were going to get pushed off until April, but since he says he's going to decide whether or not to include Canadian oil in the tariffs tonight (probably not since Smith kissed the ring and it would really hurt him with gas prices)

U.S. President Donald Trump says oil “may or may not” be carved out of his sweeping import tariffs against Canada, which are expected to arrive Saturday.

“We’re going to make that determination probably tonight, on oil,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. He said the choice will come down to whether “the oil is properly priced.”


Canada supplies the lion’s share of the United States’ crude oil imports – more than the rest of the world combined. In 2023, 60 per cent of the crude oil imported to the United States came from north of the border, according to the government of Canada.

This is a breaking news story. More details to come.

You can see everything that we've done for border security here, so if it comes on Saturday it's because Trump just wants to tariff us and not because we have tons of illegals and drugs coming into the US

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump- ... -1.7444985

[Kraken]

Yeah, unfortunately it might need to be hurt in order for such a reset to happen. I just hope it never comes to that. As allies we'd hate to see Americans hurt in such a manner, such is our empathy. But it's honestly kind of refreshing to hear you all speaking this way. It shows how much care you have for your Country. I appreciate you guys.

Please don't assume silence means we agree with or accept what is happening. I think most on this board think it stinks. At least in my case I'm silent just because there is nothing I can do and figured this was a better place to let y'all vent. I also think countries will should react in whatever way is in their interest and if that hurts the US, so be it.

+1. Wife's family used to own a cottage in Ontario and we spent many weeks over several summers there, including on our honeymoon. We often had up to a dozen friends and family members staying with us. I've long been quite fond of Canada. Before the craft beer revolution in the late '80s to early '90s, you had better beer than we did. I drank many gallons of Molson Brador and considered it a treat.

My perspective might be a little warped because we have a large housing shortage in MA, but I'm under the impression that housing is scarce and most people consider it unaffordable throughout the US. Houses are made mostly of wood, and I do believe we get most of that from Canada. Unless he's smart enough (hah!) to exempt lumber, this will be a large self-inflicted wound to a sector that's already struggling with high costs.

I certainly hope that Canada will fight back, and especially target agricultural products from red states. If everyone on both sides of the border is going to suffer anyway, you might as well aim where it will hurt the most.

[Isgrimnur]

We're not going to have anyone to build housing when they deport all the laborers.

[Punisher]

We're not going to have anyone to build housing when they deport all the laborers.

Nonsense.
I'm sure all the people wanting cheaper eggs will do the same jobs for the same wages. Same with farming.
It's what they wanted.

[Holman]

We're not going to have anyone to build housing when they deport all the laborers.

Nonsense.
I'm sure all the people wanting cheaper eggs will do the same jobs for the same wages. Same with farming.
It's what they wanted.

I'm looking forward to regular Americans laying cheap eggs when all the chickens are dead from H5N1.

[WYBaugh]

We're not going to have anyone to build housing when they deport all the laborers.

Nonsense.
I'm sure all the people wanting cheaper eggs will do the same jobs for the same wages. Same with farming.
It's what they wanted.

I'm looking forward to regular Americans laying cheap eggs when all the chickens are dead from H5N1.

That will be Biden's fault for lab creation of the virus.

[IceBear]

I am seriously depressed and scared for my country right now. I have always liked Americans (for the most part...those MAGAs I could live without] but I have never wanted to be one

[Smoove_B]

I am seriously depressed and scared for my country right now.

See? You're just like us.

Spoiler:

[LordMortis]

However, given the size difference in our economies, whatever we do to hurt the US will end up hurting us more. Plus, I feel like that would be all the incentive Trump would need to REALLY punish us (maybe even with military).

Sure, but on the other hand, he really has no idea how much tariffs against us will end up affecting the American economy. He's steadfast and resolved to do it, and therefore the only thing we can do is to do what we can by imposing our own and cutting him off. It'll hurt us, yes, but I think it's the best alternative to just sitting back and letting him take advantage of us. This situation is such that if we do nothing, he'll see us as weak and he'll possibly keep targeting us. If we retaliate, it will show we have a backbone. It's caught us in in situation where neither is all that good.

Between pipeline, lumber, and auto supply chain the symbiosis is huge. To say nothing tech supply chain. Grinding one to a halt will grind the other. I can't say how much losing trade will hurt Canada but the US will lose construction and manufacturing overnight like that. The last time lumber supply tanked, the housing industry ground still. The last time JIT was exposed, the auto industry ground to a halt. Now add shutting down all those pipelines? It's just beyond stupid for this GOP administration to think like this. Then we add little things like say, Lime, Nickel, Aluminum, and Zinc and ask what happens to concrete/cement, batteries, plastics, and steel. For businessmen who even ruled during the COVID shutdowns, these morons have absolutely no idea how the global supply chain and trade works.

At the point, I have no idea how much of the GOP is doing this for market manipulation and how much is to appease the ignorance of the voters that give them power.

Please annex Michigan. Please.