Trumponomics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

[hepcat]

We won’t annex Canada in any way, shape or form. Let’s concentrate on the things he actually will do. Those are awful enough without dreaming up nightmare scenarios that can’t happen.

[Kraken]

I just read a convincing argument that those who think trump's tariffs are a negotiating ploy are wrong. Tariffs are the whole point for him. He really believes they will enrich the Treasury at the expense of foreigners, to the point where income taxes can fall away entirely. He's not interested in negotiating them away.

If that's true, the ensuing trade war will harm consumers in all affected countries and the world economy at large. Trump cares nothing about American consumers, but he does consider the stock market to be a personal scorecard. He won't cave unless stonks do.

I'm thinking I might load some fund trades tomorrow, because Monday's market is going to be bloody. Trust me, I perfected timing the market.

[Smoove_B]

Indeed. I suspect there's going to be a lot of "I was supposed to retire..." posts coming from folks on Monday afternoon.

While I'm not an economist, I can't imagine a pissing match is worth the headache. As others have noted, I'd think that both China and Mexico are just going to enmesh themselves into new trading networks while America runs the risk of true social and economic isolationism. I still don't think it's going to matter a single bit until it start impacting the daily lives of every American - where they can't help but notice that *everything* is more expensive because every single financial interaction they make on a day to day basis is impacted. Even then, I'm still not convinced anyone will do anything. I honestly don't know what it would take before someone in the federal government pushes back, but I guess while a certain class of people still making money and their daily lives aren't impacted, who cares?

[RunningMn9]

What federal government? While we’ve been sitting here, Musk has had another 48 hours destroying OPM and the Treasury, with no one watching. There’s not going to be anyone to push back.

[waitingtoconnect]

We won’t annex Canada in any way, shape or form. Let’s concentrate on the things he actually will do. Those are awful enough without dreaming up nightmare scenarios that can’t happen.

It won’t happen because nobody wants it. But it’s what trump wants. So the tactics he is employing align with that.

He isn’t living in the same world as we are. He’s enmeshed in 19th century thinking where countries could be treated like real estate.

Regardless as to his end goal though, he is going to ruin everything.

[waitingtoconnect]

What federal government? While we’ve been sitting here, Musk has had another 48 hours destroying OPM and the Treasury, with no one watching. There’s not going to be anyone to push back.

On this I’m so surprised the democrats aren’t saying anything such that they are either incompetent or complicit.

[hepcat]

What federal government? While we’ve been sitting here, Musk has had another 48 hours destroying OPM and the Treasury, with no one watching. There’s not going to be anyone to push back.

It boggles my mind that Musk now has complete insight into and control of government contracts for his rivals. Honestly, if Musk isn’t on trial by this time next year I’ll be surprised. I highly doubt two egos of his and Trump’s size can coexist within Washington, so I’m betting Musk goes the way of Bannon with Trump. And with that will go his protection.

[LordMortis]

I just read a convincing argument that those who think trump's tariffs are a negotiating ploy are wrong. Tariffs are the whole point for him. He really believes they will enrich the Treasury at the expense of foreigners, to the point where income taxes can fall away entirely. He's not interested in negotiating them away.

If that's true, the ensuing trade war will harm consumers in all affected countries and the world economy at large. Trump cares nothing about American consumers, but he does consider the stock market to be a personal scorecard. He won't cave unless stonks do.

I'm thinking I might load some fund trades tomorrow, because Monday's market is going to be bloody. Trust me, I perfected timing the market.

He wants them as an excuse to extend his tax cuts for billionaires. Inflation be damned. National debt be damned. He can't abide by the need to pay taxes and his base think somehow applies to them and the the debt. Before he won, his business support started talking about how tariff and tariff induced inflation were the only way out national debt. It's just that no one listened to the bluster as they never do. I don't think the GOP administration cares about stocks anymore either. Their backers are now all private equity billionaires who are more concerned with control than exactly how rich they are in USD in the short term.

[Grifman]

Well, it’s not just a negotiating tactic now:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/02/01/ins ... onomy.html

He’s just an idiot. Countries will impose their own tariffs and in as many cases seek alternative sources. The U.S. cannot produce everything we need - autarky is not the answer, it cannot work with the global interconnected economy we have. I can’t believe that some of the more economically minded supporters have not sat him down and told him how insane this is. I hope the lower and middle class Trump supporters enjoy their tax increase so he can pass on tax cuts for the rich.

And remember the Great Depression was found to be at least partially caused by the world’s tariff increase in the wake of Workd War 1. Get ready for a wild ride.

[LordMortis]

When you can't count on stability of single sourcing, you expand your customers/suppliers and take the hit on bottom line. This is what Canadian and Mexican companies will be forced to do and they won't be coming back to single sourcing to the US as a preferred "USMCA" deal (The GOP Administration's jerking around of NAFTA. Fool me twice shame on you). And that's the best the US can hope for. And quite frankly, we are unreliable at this point. Literally, the best we, our allies, and international partners can hope for is 12 years of lack of reliability. 12 years. An entirely new generation has become dominant in that time.

I hate be the ones that suck. It's soul crushing. And that lack of stability applies to the daily grind in my own life. And GOP voters and politicians are thriving on it. May it bite them all in the ass harder than it bites me.

[Grifman]

Yeah, once they find other sources they are unlikely to come back. This is really the equivalent of BREXIT for the U.S. we are withdrawing from the international trading order that we helped create and benefit from. All thus is going to do is impoverish the U.S. in the long run.

It’s also ironic in that Trump is basically tearing up his big replacement for NAFTA ( which really wasn’t much more than a rebranding in practical terms. Some reporter should ask him if he failed since he is repudiating that agreement.

At least I hope that companies that suffer from this make it clear to their workers that their suffering is Trump’s fault. I also hope that the people who are hurt the most are the ones that voted for the Face Eating Leopard Party, though I know others will sadly be hurt.

[Smoove_B]

What federal government? While we’ve been sitting here, Musk has had another 48 hours destroying OPM and the Treasury, with no one watching. There’s not going to be anyone to push back.

It boggles my mind that Musk now has complete insight into and control of government contracts for his rivals. Honestly, if Musk isn’t on trial by this time next year I’ll be surprised. I highly doubt two egos of his and Trump’s size can coexist within Washington, so I’m betting Musk goes the way of Bannon with Trump. And with that will go his protection.

This is the part that actually makes me insane. on 1/27, Bessent was confirmed as the Secretary of the Treasury. 16 Democrats in the Senate voted in support of his nomination. 4 days later, Musk is deploying hardware inside the Treasury to scoop data. I genuinely need someone to explain to me why any Democrats are voting in support of cabinet nominees at this point? Because it sure looks like there's a whole bunch of them that aren't nearly as concerned as some of us are.

[Holman]

I genuinely need someone to explain to me why any Democrats are voting in support of cabinet nominees at this point? Because it sure looks like there's a whole bunch of them that aren't nearly as concerned as some of us are.

They're talking like they can bipartisan their way out of this. They don't know that the game has changed.

Biden winning in 2020 allowed them to console themselves that Trump was an aberration. The 2024 loss now has them shell-shocked, and they're clinging to what they want to believe is still true.

[Smoove_B]

I think that's what I cannot process - how the elected Democrats are seemingly acting like this is all normal and just begrudgingly going along with the process because that's what you do. There doesn't seem to be any recognition that we are careening into a national disaster - the cabinet members, the EOs, the creation of a detainment city at Gitmo and now a trade war with Canada and Mexico.

And there's crickets.

[IceBear]

51st State talk again this morning. At least he dropped the better health care for better military (which we can't really argue)

Trump also said in his Truth Social posts Sunday morning that if Canada were to become the 51st state it would face “NO TARIFFS!”

“Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State. Much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada — AND NO TARIFFS!” the president wrote.

If we're so cherished why are you treating us this way?

[WYBaugh]

Help a ignorant person out. Tariffs on Canada means the US companies have to pay. How does this impact Canada? Is it because US businesses will look elsewhere for the items?

[stessier]

Business and consumers, yes. Canada will sell fewer products. My understanding is their economy was already struggling as well.

[IceBear]

Yeah, we have only 40 million people here so hard for a Canadian business to make things for Canadians only and make money. Hopefully we'll diversify our trade more than we currently are and after this is over...assuming we still exist...we'll be better off than we were. It's going to be hard, and it's hard to not feel betrayed

[hepcat]

I found this video on tariffs to be insightful.



One thing someone mentioned in the comments is that one of the most critical issues with tariffs is that once a seller raises a price to accommodate their increased costs by passing that increase to the consumer, they've effectively established a new baseline price. And they rarely go back down after that has been established.

[Alefroth]

Canada, meet Mexico. Mexico, meet Canada.

[IceBear]

Canada, meet Mexico. Mexico, meet Canada.

That was part of the reason for the delay in Trudeau's press conference last night. He was on the phone with the Mexican president co-ordinating counter tariffs.

[LawBeefaroni]

Help a ignorant person out. Tariffs on Canada means the US companies have to pay. How does this impact Canada? Is it because US businesses will look elsewhere for the items?

Yes, it will raise prices for any goods/services that are tariff=ed. The idea is that it will make domestically produced goods more attractive to buyers due to their lower relative price. More US products sold, fewer Canadian products sold. But of course it's a lot more complicated than that and Wharton's finest can't understand.



Below is a prefect example of his infantile mind. Just 30 seconds of him at one of his EO signings.

Note that Spain is NOT a BRICS nation. Not even close. The "S" stand for South Africa. And among other 5 or so nations not included in the acronym, Spain is not one.

Yet he gets it completely wrong and then belittles and attacks the reporter asking the [unrelated] question and then doesn't listen when another reporter starts listing the BRICS.

He says he wants to put a 100% tariff on Spain because they're BRICS. Fucking idiot. The absolute silence is deafening. Why someone doesn't shout out, "No they are not a BRICS nation" is beyond me. But this is how everyone reacts to this man.

[IceBear]

Lumber, for example, is one of the tariffed products. So, any home building project is going to be more expensive. He keeps saying that you guys have swaths of forest for you to use (sure, lets ruin the ecosystem even faster, but anyway). From what I've read, the lumber mills down there are at 85% capacity, so only room for 15% more of domestic lumber. You also have a shortage of lumberjacks and truck drivers to haul the wood. Sure, this should encourage more lumber mills, lumberjack and truck driver jobs down there which is good, but it's also not going to happen overnight. So, in the meantime, trying to build a house or any home improvement is going to be more expensive.

The automobile industry in Detroit uses parts made in Mexico and Canada. Apparently some parts cross the border multiple times and every time it crosses, 25%. Yes, eventually maybe Ford and GM will open new plants down there so more jobs for Americans (not a bad thing) but again, that's not going to happen overnight so in the meantime, more expensive cars.

[Blackhawk]

Shouldn't it be 'Trumponomics"?

[Smoove_B]

Shouldn't it be 'Trumponomics"?

Yes.

[Max Peck]

Shouldn't it be 'Trumponomics"?

I figured that it was Trumponics, like Ebonics but based on stupidity instead of culture. Once you master the Trump speech patterns, you learn to love tariffs bigly through osmotic stupification.

[Rumpy]

We won’t annex Canada in any way, shape or form. Let’s concentrate on the things he actually will do. Those are awful enough without dreaming up nightmare scenarios that can’t happen.

It won’t happen because nobody wants it. But it’s what trump wants. So the tactics he is employing align with that.

He isn’t living in the same world as we are. He’s enmeshed in 19th century thinking where countries could be treated like real estate.

Regardless as to his end goal though, he is going to ruin everything.

The ironic thing about all this is that it could have easily been prevented. But in his insistence in the way he's been treating Canada the last while, and the tone he's been taking with us, says a lot about his character and the way he deals with people. The bull in a china shop of Presidents.

Any other President would sit down with us and suggest to us how we can improve our results, with dignity and respect. But in treating us like dirt, we'll throw it back in kind if that's what he wants. Respect is a two way street.

Business and consumers, yes. Canada will sell fewer products. My understanding is their economy was already struggling as well.

Help a ignorant person out. Tariffs on Canada means the US companies have to pay. How does this impact Canada? Is it because US businesses will look elsewhere for the items?

Pretty much. By doing this, it means that essentially Canada will produce less and sell less, unless it can find another buyer. In simplest terms, trade between Canada and the U.S is like a jigsaw puzzle. It's very complex and interlinked, and once you lose the pieces, it's game over.

Yeah, we have only 40 million people here so hard for a Canadian business to make things for Canadians only and make money. Hopefully we'll diversify our trade more than we currently are and after this is over...assuming we still exist...we'll be better off than we were. It's going to be hard, and it's hard to not feel betrayed

And it doesn't help that many companies that were previously Canadian have ended up being bought by American ones. It's always been an uphill climb for us in terms of keeping things Canadian.

Good video on this topic:

[Alefroth]

Shouldn't it be 'Trumponomics"?

That didn't go anywhere.

Does Trumponomics read better?

[Blackhawk]

Shouldn't it be 'Trumponomics"?

That didn't go anywhere.

Does Trumponomics read better?

Were there protests?

[Rumpy]

I'm fine with whatever, as long as we're not charged tariffs for the extra letters.

[Alefroth]

Shouldn't it be 'Trumponomics"?

That didn't go anywhere.

Does Trumponomics read better?

Were there protests?

Only the mildest.

[IceBear]

Scary thought...what if Trump is right and tariffs work for the US?

[LawBeefaroni]

Scary thought...what if Trump is right and tariffs work for the US?

They'll have to rewrite econ textbooks.

[stessier]

Scary thought...what if Trump is right and tariffs work for the US?

I've read that he expects the Treasury to get more money as a result to fund more tax cuts. That could happen... It's just that Americans will be paying it, not foreign countries. So then it's just a question of Americans caring that they are essentially paying for tax cuts they don't participate in.

[Max Peck]

That assumes that Americans and American businesses continue to import the things that are covered by tariffs. If they actually switch to alternatives that are not subject to tariffs (e.g. domestic products, quality Russian goods, whatever), then there is no tariff revenue.

[IceBear]

Which will really ruin Canada and Mexico

[LordMortis]

Scary thought...what if Trump is right and tariffs work for the US?

I've read that he expects the Treasury to get more money as a result to fund more tax cuts. That could happen... It's just that Americans will be paying it, not foreign countries. So then it's just a question of Americans caring that they are essentially paying for tax cuts they don't participate in.

Extend the expiring tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans was the last plan I read. "The pass through" tax cuts, etc...

First thing I found but the source may be suspect.

https://www.americanprogress.org/articl ... -families/

Edit: A less biased source which de emaphasizes the wealthy tax cuts but still includes them among the list of tax cuts for most everybody expiring

https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/wha ... xpiration/

[Victoria Raverna]

Scary thought...what if Trump is right and tariffs work for the US?

I've read that he expects the Treasury to get more money as a result to fund more tax cuts. That could happen... It's just that Americans will be paying it, not foreign countries. So then it's just a question of Americans caring that they are essentially paying for tax cuts they don't participate in.

Then the tariffs are going to be a tax on everyone to fund tax cuts for the rich.

It is like implement a sales tax to cut income tax. Good for the rich, bad for those that have to spend almost all of their income every month.

[Victoria Raverna]

Wall Street Journal editorial calls Trump tariffs ‘dumbest trade war in history’

[Grifman]

Shouldn't it be 'Trumponomics"?

Yes.

Changed to make everyone happy

But it doesn't look like a title change makes it into the header for replies.