Ukraine

[Holman]

Eight years doesn't undo generations of friendship. Leaders come and go all the time, in all countries. Our friendships have endured decades of changing leadership from both sides of the political spectrum. They'll endure Trump.

"Friendship" is a thing between individuals, not nations. International Relations are necessarily more wary and suspicious. Continuity across administrations was only possible when it could be assumed that the general trend of alliances and common goals was persistent despite different governing styles and different domestic agendas.

What's happening now is an intentional erasure of the post-WW2 global order. This is huge. Trump has just done a 180-degree turn on our commitment to an ongoing war in Europe. No, he isn't aiding Russia with positive reinforcement, but he is all but denying Ukraine's sovereignty. And we might be just days away from Trump's and Musk's withdrawal of active aid of any kind, both military and informational.

The USA is technically still part of NATO, but can any NATO country assume that we would commit resources to the aid of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, or even Poland if Russia attacked? Can they assume that we will still share intelligence about Russia securely and accurately? I feel sure that they've already written off American commitment to preventing Russian political meddling and election interference in Europe, since we've basically been endorsing Russia's political allies.

The USA has turned on a dime. This is a rarity in democratic alliances, sure, but now that it has happened, our allies would be stupid to trust that it will never happen again.

[YellowKing]

'"Friendship" is a thing between individuals, not nations.

It was just shorthand.

The USA is technically still part of NATO, but can any NATO country assume that we would commit resources to the aid of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, or even Poland if Russia attacked?

Not currently. Under a future administration that has reaffirmed its commitment to NATO? Sure.

[Blackhawk]

But again, the decision that Europe (and the rest of the world) has to make is whether to continue to count on the US to hold up their end when it matters, or invest the time and money required to be able to handle it themselves. It takes time to create those kinds of resources and infrastructure.

Our position as a top superpower was that those nations (like NATO) relied on us. Not even looking at trade, they relied on us for troops, military hardware, and especially, as a nuclear deterrent. It's something Trump was half-right on - we've held up an outsized share of the world security load. Europe hasn't needed the level of military that we have because they've known that we've got their backs - Russia and China know it, too. What Trump's missing is that our doing so has given us the clout that's allowed us to maintain our position in the world. The benefits to the US have outweighed our outsized world security commitment.

So what do those nations do?

If they play it safe and create their own self-reliance, then they won't need the US. At that point, even if they choose to work with us again in the future, it will be with us having lost all of our leverage, and us coming to them as equals that they don't need. That's a fundamental shift in who the US is globally.

If they're going to rely on a future administration and choose not to, then they know that they could end up with their entire way of life destroyed if yet another future administration takes things the way of Trump.

Imagine that you're a NATO country. Which option do you choose for your people? Do you count on the US to stop be unreliable, or do you find a way not to have to rely on the US?

Here's the thing - this isn't speculation. Europe is already positioning themselves to take those steps. It's in the works. It's happening. And because of that, our value to the world has changed, and changed long-term. Our position in the world is changing. Permanently, and unavoidably.

[Blackhawk]

Just to be clear, that doesn't mean that we won't be allies during the next administration. It doesn't mean that we won't be 'friends.' It doesn't mean that we won't have treaties or engage in trade with them. They won't be turning their backs on us.

They will, however, be doing so far more cautiously. They'll be making deals that benefit us both, but won't be making deals that leaves them reliant on us like in the past.

We've lost our clout, and with that, we've lost our bargaining position and our role in the world. If the question is whether we can return to what we were before Trump, the answer is a confident 'no', and that's without trying to make predictions.

[Daehawk]

Voting in Trump and his ilk and the things they are now doing to us and the world proves the US and its system is no longer trustworthy. I wouldn't trust us..i dont trust US and im a citizen.

[raydude]

Just to be clear, that doesn't mean that we won't be allies during the next administration. It doesn't mean that we won't be 'friends.' It doesn't mean that we won't have treaties or engage in trade with them. They won't be turning their backs on us.

They will, however, be doing so far more cautiously. They'll be making deals that benefit us both, but won't be making deals that leaves them reliant on us like in the past.

We've lost our clout, and with that, we've lost our bargaining position and our role in the world. If the question is whether we can return to what we were before Trump, the answer is a confident 'no', and that's without trying to make predictions.

My take: Trump just lost us Pax Americana.

[GreenGoo]

'"Friendship" is a thing between individuals, not nations.

It was just shorthand.

I'm comfortable with your usage. Friendly relations is a thing between nations. Informally calling that relationship "friendship" seems reasonable to me.

[Alefroth]

I'm really surprised that Zelenskyy is agreeing to this, especially with no solid security guarantee.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn527pz54neo

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Trump in Washington on Friday to sign an agreement that would give the US access to its deposits of rare earth minerals.

Zelensky said he hoped the "preliminary" agreement with the US "will lead to further deals", but confirmed no American security guarantees have been agreed yet.

[IceBear]

From what I hear he's not signing without security guarantees. I believe that's what he's hoping for Friday

[waitingtoconnect]

Just to be clear, that doesn't mean that we won't be allies during the next administration. It doesn't mean that we won't be 'friends.' It doesn't mean that we won't have treaties or engage in trade with them. They won't be turning their backs on us.

They will, however, be doing so far more cautiously. They'll be making deals that benefit us both, but won't be making deals that leaves them reliant on us like in the past.

We've lost our clout, and with that, we've lost our bargaining position and our role in the world. If the question is whether we can return to what we were before Trump, the answer is a confident 'no', and that's without trying to make predictions.

My take: Trump just lost us Pax Americana.

Yep, the Chinese are literally running warships up and down the Australian and New Zealand coasts doing live fire exercises and it’s definitely Pax Sinica in the South Pacific now.

The Australians are giving us 50 odd billion dollars for six nuclear subs we don’t even have to build for them. They gave us a cool 2 billion the other day for us to upgrade our shipyards. For nothing.

When they finally get their subs they will put under Us navy command. Whoops… with trump on the scene they made a bad deal too.

We’ve literally abandoned Europe to Russia, threatened to annex our neighbors and abandoned the Pacific to the Chinese navy.

[Kraken]

Maybe Zelensky gets the last laugh from the resource deal he's supposed to sign with trump tomorrow. Maybe those resources aren't all that.

The agreement expected to be signed Friday at the White House could be seen as a coup for an embattled Zelensky, who is giving Trump a deal he can trumpet at a time that US support is faltering.

“It’s an important political undertaking that binds the two countries together,” a senior US official said. “The deal is bigger than subsoil. And it’s politically important for the Ukrainians at this juncture.”

Current and former US officials, as well as analysts and experts, have all emphasized that there isn’t a clear picture of precisely what resources Ukraine has that can be exploited. There appears to be no modern assessment and what is known is based on decades old, Soviet-era mapping.

While Trump has emphasized rare earth minerals and the American need for them, the US Geological Survey says Ukraine has zero proven reserves of rare earth minerals, or processing facilities.

"The vast majority" of the unproven reserves are in Russian-controlled territory that trump is likely to cede to Putin.

“From Zelensky’s perspective what else can he offer the US or the West?” asked the second senior Biden administration official. “They correctly gauged this would be something that would pique the interest of the Trump team.”

“There’s nothing wrong with the US doing a deal,” the former official said. “I just don’t think there’s all that much too it.”

[El Guapo]

Just no one tell Trump, ok? Remember he did an amazing deal that's getting a ton of stuff for the U.S. and will personally make him an unbelievable amount of money as long as the Ukraine remains sovereign.

[$iljanus]

No one should have the illusion that the United States can be taken seriously as an ally after this meeting between Zelensky,Vance and Trump. I don't think this has ever happened in the Oval Office in front of the press. A Russian envoy in Moscow called it "historic". It pretty much devolved into a shouting match at the end provoked by Vance and Trump with Zelensky being the reasonable adult in the room.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -live-news

[Alefroth]

And a 'reporter' bullying Zelenskyy about not wearing a suit. I don't remember anyone being bothered by Musk's attire.

Trump and Vance would never speak to an adversary that way.

[GreenGoo]

the US Geological Survey's last remaining intern saidays as he locked up for the final time, Ukraine has zero proven reserves of rare earth minerals, or processing facilities.

Added relevant detail. Or ftfy in the common vernacular.

[El Guapo]

Was this somehow the plan, or did Trump and Vance fuck it up by trying to spike the football in front of Zelenskyy?

One lovely detail is that apparently a TASS (Russian state media) reporter was let into the oval office despite not being in the official pool of reporters. The White House story is that this was a mistake and that the reporter was ushered out once they were discovered. But as others have pointed out, that story (that a Russian state media reporter gained unapproved access to the Oval Office) is quite a bit worse than just having a Russian state reporter approved to cover the event.

[Zarathud]

JD Vance is an asshole who can’t get his facts straight, resented being challenged on his misinformation, and can’t conduct the diplomacy he claims he and Trump can provide. What a sham.

Trump is a bully who demands groveling and humiliation. And can’t be diplomatic either.

Zelensky handed Putin a victory by trying to stand his ground, giving Trump the opportunity to publicly declare Ukraine weak.

[WYBaugh]

Most condescending display I've ever seen.

What the hell do they think they are doing? Talking down to another leader of a country like that in the oval office and on TV.

[LordMortis]

What the fuck do they think they are doing?

Being Putin's dogs like they are supposed to be?

[whine]No puppet. No puppet.[/whine]

[Isgrimnur]

JD Vance is an asshole who can’t get his facts straight, resented being challenged on his misinformation,

"I was told there would be no fact checking..."

[Holman]

One thing for sure is that MAGA will eat this up. They've been led to believe for years now that Zelensky is just a moocher profiting off of the generosity of the US.

They'll spin today as Trump and Vance "putting him in his place."

[El Guapo]

At least this was in front of the cameras. Everyone needs to face the truth about Trump, which in light of all the misinformation needs to be constantly shoved in front of their faces.

[Smoove_B]

Indeed. I am confident there's going to be a meeting of EU leadership this weekend to discuss what should have been made obvious today at this meeting - namely that Trump (and America) are now Russian pawns. Apparently Macron is the only one that can be in Trump's orbit and influence him so they'll need to plan accordingly.

[IceBear]

Pretty sure the British PM is too.

[Holman]

Europe understands that the transatlantic alliance is essentially finished. NATO endures for now, but Europe has come to see the USA as a predatory and unreliable actor rather than a solid ally.

This is a historical shift in global relations. The world order that kept the peace and managed prosperity and progress for the past 75+ years--the order that the USA essentially directed, and to its enormous benefit--is now gone because of one stupid American election.

It wasn't always this fragile. We made it weaker. The GOP acted to undermine it as soon as they saw they could exploit its weaknesses for greater domestic power.

Future historians will shake their heads at us.

[GreenGoo]

Future historians will shake their heads at us.

Current historians too.

I'm not judging. I have no idea how to stop it and it could easily happen anywhere, I'm since learning.

[Enough]

Still fuming and reeling, watching the world order completely blow up with a vacuum of hate and stupidity ready to fill it in DC. This shook me like 1-6 and 911.

[WYBaugh]

Still fuming and reeling, watching the world order completely blow up with a vacuum of hate and stupidity ready to fill it in DC. This shook me like 1-6 and 911.

It is mindbogglingly stupid

[Victoria Raverna]

LOL.

[Holman]

Fuck Marco Rubio. Even a year ago he was arguing for the importance of defending Ukraine against Russia.

Spineless coward.

[Blackhawk]

He's right. No President has ever had the guts to throw a tantrum during a televised meeting.

Actually, the closest I can think of was Khrushchev, but it's not like Trump would publicly imitate a Russian leader.

[hepcat]

I’m actually ashamed to be an American right now.

[Alefroth]

How the hell does this put America first in any way? We aren't at war with Ukraine.

[Enough]

He's right. No President has ever had the guts to throw a tantrum during a televised meeting.

Actually, the closest I can think of was Khrushchev, but it's not like Trump would publicly imitate a Russian leader.

That's actually a really interesting reference, thanks for sharing.

[Kraken]

How the hell does this put America first in any way? We aren't at war with Ukraine.

That little show of arrogance was premeditated, and meant for the benefit of Vladimir Putin (as evidenced by the TASS reporter who was "accidentally" included in the press pool). Russia is a more valuable ally than Ukraine and trump just removed any lingering doubt about which side he's on.

[Rumpy]

LOL.

That almost sounds sarcastic, but it's probably not.

[LordMortis]

Rubio is a tool

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1A2E1j

President Donald Trump is reluctant to publicly criticize or insult Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, believing that such actions hinder negotiations toward a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated in an interview with CNN.

According to the US Secretary, President Trump understands that attacking Putin, regardless of personal feelings, forces him into a position where he must insult Putin and make maximalist demands regarding Russia's reparations for Ukraine's reconstruction. Rubio noted that while these matters are typically discussed in negotiations, aggressive public discourse can deter parties from coming to the negotiating table.

So this GOP Administration don't want Putin to have public discourse with his dogs but they invite mistakenly allow Russian State Media in on a planned spectacle with Zelenskyy?

Fuck you and your poor excuses for propaganda. Sadly, they seemingly aren't even needed anymore because the goals have been met. The US are a pariah, the oligarchs are in nearly complete control, and "the base" are eating up all the things they used rail against with no way to turn them toward sanity that I can see.

[$iljanus]

Rubio is full of shit. All Trump needed to do was say very little and just look like a peacemaker. But him and his attack poodle Vance had to go for the "outrage" to look good domestically and/or look good for his Russian master.

We're not even close to a year in and the harm being done is moving closer to being irreparable both in foreign and domestic policy.

[RunningMn9]

We're not even close to a year in

It’s been 36 days.

[Victoria Raverna]

More spineless cowards: