Ukraine

[GreenGoo]

What recession are we talking about exactly?

The one that's coming. As this administration's actions cascade throughout the country over the entire term. It's not like they've stopped, and it's not like the impacts of these changes manifest instantaneously everywhere at once.

The predictable and obvious one.

[Kurth]

Those are might big IFs you’re using to jump to conclusions.

Business isn’t back to assess Friday’s spending, and it will take a few weeks to assess at best.

And it’s faulty to assume Trump 1.0’s threats will be the same as Trump 2.0’s tariffs plus government destruction. The unemployment alone will be a crisis.

Just to clarify, I’m not jumping to any conclusions. Quite the opposite: I’m throwing out a word of caution that those speaking of the impending catastrophic recession may be.

[LordMortis]

Quote of the day from anonymous as far as I know.

Putin conquered 49.8% of America faster than he conquered 20% of Ukraine.

[RunningMn9]

What recession are we talking about exactly?

I mean, there is almost certainly a recession coming. You can’t cut govt spending and firing everyone without causing a recession. Which is why they told us they were going to cause a recession before we elected them.

[Kurth]

What recession are we talking about exactly?

I mean, there is almost certainly a recession coming. You can’t cut govt spending and firing everyone without causing a recession. Which is why they told us they were going to cause a recession before we elected them.

When did they tell us they were going to cause a recession before we (most definitely the royal we) elected them?

[LordMortis]

I don't remember them saying they were going to create a recession. I do remember that 2.5 years of railing against inflation was suddenly the plan in September to reduce national debt and that inflation must be encouraged through tariffs. That sort of goes hand in hand with recession but I never once heard them mention the R word.

[raydude]

Add in the demonstration of just how effective the Russian military really is when the shit hits the fan.

This. Russia still hasn't figured out logistics and still depends on rails to get supplies near the front, and lots and lots of human power to move supplies off rails and onto trucks. Ukraine is hampered by a limited supply of ATACMS, no air force, and concerns about targetting areas deep in Russia. If Russia decides to move on a NATO country those issues no longer become a concern.

[RunningMn9]

When did they tell us they were going to cause a recession before we (most definitely the royal we) elected them?

Back in October.

Prior to the election, almost every trained economist that evaluated Trump’s policies came to that conclusion, and Musk agreed with them.

It’s the only outcome possible when you intentionally reduce GDP (via spending cuts and causing mass unemployment).

[Kraken]

Austerity measures always harm economic growth to some degree, even when they're done intelligently. I don't think we have any precedent in US history for gutting much of the federal government and defunding whole sectors (like education) based on whims and political vendettas. I don't think it will be OK. But hey, maybe freeing the oligarchs from taxes and regulation will make everything better.

[Kurth]

When did they tell us they were going to cause a recession before we (most definitely the royal we) elected them?

Back in October.

Prior to the election, almost every trained economist that evaluated Trump’s policies came to that conclusion, and Musk agreed with them.

It’s the only outcome possible when you intentionally reduce GDP (via spending cuts and causing mass unemployment).

Sorry, I was confused on who the “they” were in your post. Yes, lots of economists have told us Trump’s policies would cause a recession, but what do they know. Right? Just a bunch of poindexters with overpriced advanced degrees and a bunch of “expertise,” and we all know what that’s worth these days.

I had thought you meant that Trump and his MAGA sycophants had told the American public that their polices are likely to bring on economic pain. I don’t think that happened. And Musk making an off-hand “sounds about right” comment in response to a long Twitter post making lots of different points does not qualify.

[GreenGoo]

[RunningMn9]

Sorry, I was confused on who the “they” were in your post. Yes, lots of economists have told us Trump’s policies would cause a recession, but what do they know. Right? Just a bunch of poindexters with overpriced advanced degrees and a bunch of “expertise,” and we all know what that’s worth these days.

We disagree on the importance of Elon's acknowledgment of what's coming. But to answer your original question - the recession that will almost certainly occur as a result of what they are doing to the federal government and the budget.

[Alefroth]

If nothing else, history suggests we'll have a recession. Recessions under Republican presidents is kind of our jam.

[Blackhawk]

The question in my mind isn't "will we have a recession." It's, "how big, how long, and where will the greatest impacts be?" Of course, all of that takes second seat to, "what services, that my family and I rely on to get by, will no longer be available then?"

[Holman]

The question in my mind isn't "will we have a recession." It's, "how big, how long, and where will the greatest impacts be?" Of course, all of that takes second seat to, "what services, that my family and I rely on to get by, will no longer be available then?"

And the Trump/Musk answer to those questions is "Just relax, the billionaires will be fine."

[Hyena]

Saw a clip today on JRE where Musk was talking about how Social Security is not sustainable, that despite all the taxes we've paid into it how it's going to be too big a burden on our future, so it needs to get axed.

Never mind all the money millions of us have been dumping into it for 90+ years or so. People are living longer than we used to and old people are becoming too much of a hassle to keep paying, I guess? It's truly amazing just how out of touch the man has become. When you have that kind of money, I suppose it breaks you on a fundamental level and you lose all sense of empathy.

[Zarathud]

I don’t think money broke Elon. I fully expect he was a raging asshole from birth.

I see this with many clients, some who are amazing and have money which lets them do amazing things. Not all of them are so great.

Money doesn’t create monsters. It gives Monsters a Focus, Leverage, and a Microphone. We’re conditioned to believe success in one area is predictive of success in other areas. It’s not.

[$iljanus]

Back on topic, aid to Ukraine now paused.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-zelens ... ebbe250a9e

[Unagi]

I mean, we saw it coming - but this is just chilling to have it going down.

[Blackhawk]

Stop giving support to Russia's enemies.

Stop cyberintelligence actions against Russia.

Remove sanctions against Russia.

'Solve' European issues by going behind their backs to make deals with Russia.


Pattern? Anyone?

[Unagi]

No puppet.

[Zaxxon]

No puppet.

At a certain point, ‘puppet’ is too weak a word to accurately portray the level of obsequiousness being demonstrated.

[Max Peck]

I dunno, being willing to have someone's fist shoved so far up your ass that they can manipulate your vocal chords is pretty damned obsequious.

[Victoria Raverna]

More than just a puppet?

Was 40-year-old Trump recruited by the KGB?

The former head of Kazakhstan’s intelligence service, Alnur Mussayev, recently claimed in a Facebook post that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987, when the 40-year-old real-estate mogul first visited Moscow.

The allegation would, if true, be a bombshell. Mussayev provides no documentary evidence —but then how could he? He alleged that Trump’s file is in Vladimir Putin’s hands.

Mussayev isn’t the only ex-KGB officer to have made such an assertion. Several years ago, Yuri Shvets, a former KGB major now resident in Washington, D.C., served as one of the key sources for Craig Unger’s best-selling book, “American Kompromat: How the KGB Cultivated Donald Trump, and Related Tales of Sex, Greed, Power, and Treachery.”

Just after Mussayev made his claim, another ex-KGB officer living in France, Sergei Zhyrnov, categorically endorsed the allegations in an interview with a Ukrainian journalist. According to Zhyrnov, Trump would have been surrounded 24/7 by KGB operatives, including everyone from his cab driver to the maid servicing his hotel room. Zhyrnov said that Trump’s every move would have been recorded and documented, and that he could have been either caught in a “honey trap” (“All foreign-currency prostitutes were KGB — one hundred percent,” he said) or perhaps recorded bribing Moscow city officials in order to promote his idea of building a hotel in the Soviet capital.

None of these former KGB operatives has provided evidence, but the fact that three KGB agents located in different places and speaking at different times agree on the story suggests this possibility should not be dismissed out of hand. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the first Trump administration and from the initial weeks of the second, it is that everything, including what appears to be impossible, is possible.

Also lending credence to the allegations is the fact that kompromat on Trump would easily, simply and convincingly explain the president’s animus toward NATO, Europe and Ukraine, his admiration of Vladimir Putin and his endorsement of authoritarian rule. One could even invoke “Occam’s razor,” the philosophical principle that claims that simple explanations should be preferred to complex ones.

[hepcat]

You already posted that a few pages back.

[Victoria Raverna]

You already posted that a few pages back.

Not the same. This article added that there were 3 ex-KGB that made almost the same claim. The one that I posted was only about a single ex-KGB claimed that.

[Zarathud]

Where Putin may have been previously limited by the risk of burning his asset, the SCOTUS immunity ruling/idol means the only limit is impeachment.

History is going to determine Mitch McConnell failed America when not impeaching Trump and stacking the SCOTUS with extremists.

[raydude]

Where Putin may have been previously limited by the risk of burning his asset, the SCOTUS immunity ruling/idol means the only limit is impeachment.

History is going to determine Mitch McConnell failed America when not impeaching Trump and stacking the SCOTUS with extremists.

I wonder why Trump's focus is on trying to get Zelenskyy to surrender so soon? Is it because Putin is feeling the pressure to end the war on his end? Putin's gotta be worried about his continuing losses and with spring and summer coming it's going to look bad for him if he can't get an offensive going.

[Kraken]

Where Putin may have been previously limited by the risk of burning his asset, the SCOTUS immunity ruling/idol means the only limit is impeachment.

History is going to determine Mitch McConnell failed America when not impeaching Trump and stacking the SCOTUS with extremists.

I wonder why Trump's focus is on trying to get Zelenskyy to surrender so soon? Is it because Putin is feeling the pressure to end the war on his end? Putin's gotta be worried about his continuing losses and with spring and summer coming it's going to look bad for him if he can't get an offensive going.

The Russian economy is teetering, with 20% inflation. News tonight says trump is exploring sanctions relief -- sacrificing another major bargaining chip. This isn't a negotiation, it's capitulation.

[Pyperkub]

Don't discount Trump being petty about the hunter Biden blackmail still (in addition to the fact that putin plays him like a fiddle).

[Lagom Lite]

US withdrawing from Ukraine only means the war will continue, probably to a continued standstill for a few more years, giving the Russian economy more time to collapse. Zelensky is no fool, he won't accept any peace deal without security guarantees (which he won't get from the EU for a couple of years). The EU will step up and keep Ukraine afloat, though. Ukraine won't surrender to Russia, and I don't see Putin being so foolish as to open up another European front. I don't see Russia making any gains in Ukraine either. They must be running out of North Koreans.

Long-term, I've seen estimates that the EU will need to increase defense spending from the current 2% of GDP to about 3,5% of GDP to realistically deter Russian aggression in Europe. This is already happening but will take some time to get there - Trump managed to unite Europe in this regard (minus Hungary, but who cares). In my country, even the reformed communist party and the pacifist green party are on board with this. Given how bloated the Russian war economy is and how over-committed they've been in Ukraine, we'll have the time as long as we're able to keep Ukraine afloat. We'll likely keep using NATO for organizational structure even if the US withdraws from active participation, although voices have been raised to create a structure for a new European Armed Forces independent of NATO. This would be the end of NATO, and so it's only looked at reluctantly. I guess the hope is that America will come around post-Trump, but we'll need to prepare for the worst.

It sucks and would be a lot easier with you guys on board, but your commander-in-chief is clearly allied with Russia, which is extremely frightening.

The irony of all this? If the EU kicks out all American troops and builds its own credible defense, American hegemony post-Marshal plan over Europe ends. You don't get to play feudal lords over Europe anymore. Which I guess is a blessing in disguise to some extent for us.

[Blackhawk]

Unless the EU steps in immediately, there won't be any holding out for a few years while they get ready. With NATO neutered, and the US out of the way, Russia will pull out what few stops they have left and pound Ukraine into dust before the EU can get organized.

[Lagom Lite]

Unless the EU steps in immediately, there won't be any holding out for a few years while they get ready. With NATO neutered, and the US out of the way, Russia will pull out what few stops they have left and pound Ukraine into dust before the EU can get organized.

This is a prime example of American arrogance. You're not that important, and Russia isn't that competent. EU absolutely can - and will - step into the void left by the yankees. This is my point about how this entire episode is self-destructive for the US: It gives the EU opportunity to demonstrate its ability to take on Russia alone. It demonstrates that America isn't necessary for anything other than Article 5 nuclear deterrence (which, to be honest, isn't that central anyway. France and the UK has some 500 warheads between them).

The only thing that can really sink Ukraine right now is if Musk shuts down Starlink over Ukraine and Trump orders American military intelligence to stop sharing intel. This would blind Ukraine long enough to allow Russia a window to steamroll. But such actions would be sabotage and collusion, and in fact demonstrate to the world that America isn't merely withholding aid to save money but actively coordinating attacks with the aggressor Russia. And the EU cannot withstand combined Russian + American aggression. In such a scenario, we are indeed royally fucked.

[El Guapo]

The only thing that can really sink Ukraine right now is if Musk shuts down Starlink over Ukraine and Trump orders American military intelligence to stop sharing intel. This would blind Ukraine long enough to allow Russia a window to steamroll. But such actions would be sabotage and collusion, and in fact demonstrate to the world that America isn't merely withholding aid to save money but actively coordinating attacks with the aggressor Russia. And the EU cannot withstand combined Russian + American aggression. In such a scenario, we are indeed royally fucked.

Unfortunately I think there's every reason to expect one or both at some point. Whatever the cause, Trump clearly has some affection for and loyalty to Putin.

Is there any alternative to Ukraine if Starlink is shut down, even if it's not as effective?

[Lagom Lite]

The only thing that can really sink Ukraine right now is if Musk shuts down Starlink over Ukraine and Trump orders American military intelligence to stop sharing intel. This would blind Ukraine long enough to allow Russia a window to steamroll. But such actions would be sabotage and collusion, and in fact demonstrate to the world that America isn't merely withholding aid to save money but actively coordinating attacks with the aggressor Russia. And the EU cannot withstand combined Russian + American aggression. In such a scenario, we are indeed royally fucked.

Unfortunately I think there's every reason to expect one or both at some point. Whatever the cause, Trump clearly has some affection for and loyalty to Putin.

Is there any alternative to Ukraine if Starlink is shut down, even if it's not as effective?

I don't know. Not in the short term, I don't think.

[raydude]

The only thing that can really sink Ukraine right now is if Musk shuts down Starlink over Ukraine and Trump orders American military intelligence to stop sharing intel. This would blind Ukraine long enough to allow Russia a window to steamroll. But such actions would be sabotage and collusion, and in fact demonstrate to the world that America isn't merely withholding aid to save money but actively coordinating attacks with the aggressor Russia. And the EU cannot withstand combined Russian + American aggression. In such a scenario, we are indeed royally fucked.

Unfortunately I think there's every reason to expect one or both at some point. Whatever the cause, Trump clearly has some affection for and loyalty to Putin.

Is there any alternative to Ukraine if Starlink is shut down, even if it's not as effective?

If Musk does shut down Starlink I would think it would give every country currently giving contracts to Starlink pause to reflect on the implications here. This would mean any nation relying on Starlink could find itself shut off on the whim of its owner, something that's very very not good for business.

[LordMortis]

If Musk does shut down Starlink I would think it would give every country currently giving contracts to Starlink pause to reflect on the implications here. This would mean any nation relying on Starlink could find itself shut off on the whim of its owner, something that's very very not good for business.

That was my original thunk way back when. I'm not so sure now, even if reason dictates this. And not just nations but businesses that aren't in the pocket of this GOP Administration or part of the approved private equity oligarchy.

[Blackhawk]

Unless the EU steps in immediately, there won't be any holding out for a few years while they get ready. With NATO neutered, and the US out of the way, Russia will pull out what few stops they have left and pound Ukraine into dust before the EU can get organized.

This is a prime example of American arrogance. You're not that important, and Russia isn't that competent. EU absolutely can - and will - step into the void left by the yankees.

We get it, you don't like America. You've made that clear over the years with your belittling, condescending tone.

Everything that I've read (from reliable news sources) has indicated that many European nations relied on the 'nuclear deterrence' provided by America to get by with smaller militaries and less infrastructure. That doesn't mean that we're 'better', just that our partnership allowed them to focus their efforts elsewhere. And yes, the EU can and will step into the void. They should be doing everything they can to cut dependence on us. But doing so is going to take time. Time to organize, build, recruit, and train. Putin knows that. His best shot, short of us pulling even more of the rug out, is to double down on their efforts before the EU has time to fill the void.

[Lagom Lite]

We get it, you don't like America. You've made that clear over the years with your belittling, condescending tone.

Well, I'm sorry you feel that way. I don't mean to sound as if I don't like America, because it's not true. There are many things I admire about America - your music, your movies, your immigrant multiculturalism, the down-to-earth, direct way you communicate, the pride you take in your democracy, your disdain for oppressive government and refusing to let anyone tell you what to do or how to live your life. But I suppose I can sound harsh at times. These last few years of looming Trumpism and, especially, these past few months since the election has had me less tolerant than usual, especially when I see people express the kind of American exceptionalism, the belief that your empire is somehow special and meant to last, that led you to this place.

Of course, I don't know what it is specifically that I've written that you feel is belittling and condescending, but for what it's worth, if I offended you then I do apologize.

Everything that I've read (from reliable news sources) has indicated that many European nations relied on the 'nuclear deterrence' provided by America to get by with smaller militaries and less infrastructure. That doesn't mean that we're 'better', just that our partnership allowed them to focus their efforts elsewhere. And yes, the EU can and will step into the void. They should be doing everything they can to cut dependence on us. But doing so is going to take time. Time to organize, build, recruit, and train. Putin knows that. His best shot, short of us pulling even more of the rug out, is to double down on their efforts before the EU has time to fill the void.

But how would Russia go about doing it, is my point. They're already stretched thin and both sides are dug in. They produce about 350 armored vehicles per year and they're running out of Sovet era tanks. They use donkeys and golf carts in their supply lines. They had real trouble the last time they tried a draft (september 2022? if I recall) and while I don't know how many North Koreans Kim Jong-Un is willing to sell to Putin's meat grinder I don't see how they could realistically pull it off. Unless everyone (America + EU) leaves, that is. Which is not going to happen, because Europeans see the Ukraine war as their war. Stop Putin in his tracks now or let him rebuild and come back later.

[LordMortis]

If it's of any consequence, I haven't liked the US for the last decade plus either. And if it's not any consequence, I understand. Even as I fight against it and feel the growing stress every day, I still have to own what we've become and what we are becoming.