Canada 2015-25 and Beyond: New Hope or Phantom Menace?

[IceBear]

Well, at least it seems like the NDP are in second place. Seems like the Liberals took quite a beating. It's interesting because I'd heard the opposite saying the NDP might be losing their official party status.

Hmmmm, the Liberals weren't an official party after the last election they lost that bad. They are now back in official party status with the election results from last night, so actually it's a win for them

[Max Peck]

If you go by popular support, the NDP were significantly behind the Liberals. Under FPTP that doesn't matter if one party has regionally concentrated support while the other has support spread across all regions. There are no prizes for consistently coming in second under this system.

Using a single transferable vote system we'd probably be seeing a Liberal or possibly an NDP government from this election, since support would tend to accumulate within the center/left rather than shifting over to the right (i.e. if your first choice was Liberal, NDP or Green, then your second/third choices would likely fall within the same group). With proportional representation we'd be seeing a PC minority with the Liberals as the opposition party, and might end up with a Liberal/NDP coalition government if the PCs lost a vote of confidence.

My understanding is that these sort of very predictable outcomes are why we didn't see electoral reform after it was promised during the 2015 federal election. All of the major parties have mutually-exclusive preferences -- the Conservatives have a structural advantage with FPTP, the Liberals would probably benefit from a single transferable vote, and the NDP was pushing for proportional representation because they (and other more fringe parties) would see better results.

[GreenGoo]

+1.

[Rumpy]

Well, at least it seems like the NDP are in second place. Seems like the Liberals took quite a beating. It's interesting because I'd heard the opposite saying the NDP might be losing their official party status.

Hmmmm, the Liberals weren't an official party after the last election they lost that bad. They are now back in official party status with the election results from last night, so actually it's a win for them

Oh well, my mistake. I guess I was confused by the chart that was posted by Max, which clearly shows the NDP with more than the Liberals.

[IceBear]

Yes, but they've been the official opposition in Ontario for awhile now so have the 2nd most seats

[Max Peck]

Since we were discussing Canadian political leadership elsewhere, let me provide one example of just how mind-numbingly bad the Conservative leader, Poilievre, actually is.

Investigations into foreign election interference have been a thing for a while. In order to receive classified briefings by Canadian intelligence agencies, politicians need to receive appropriate security clearances. However, Poilievre, the putative Prime-Minister-in-waiting, refuses to apply for a clearance so that he can be briefed on the issue. His reasoning seems to be that if he actually knows what is actually going on then he won't be able to criticize the current government's response to the activity -- he would literally prefer to just spout shit about things he proudly knows nothing about. Or maybe he'd rather pretend to know nothing because he feels that he benefits from the foreign interference, who can say? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Backgrounder and reactions: What ex-security officials think of Pierre Poilievre’s top secret security stance

Former national security officials are expressing skepticism over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s refusal to receive classified briefings on foreign interference.

For months, Poilievre has refused to obtain top-secret clearance so officials with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) could share intelligence on foreign interference with him.

On Tuesday, just after Justice Marie-Josée Hogue released her report on foreign interference, Poilievre’s office revealed he is also refusing to take briefings under CSIS’s “threat reductions measures” (TRM) mandate — which would allow the agency to share some information with the Conservative leader without him first obtaining security clearance.

Poilievre has long argued that receiving classified intelligence would prevent him from holding the government to account on foreign interference. But ex-national security officials who spoke to Global News are skeptical of that position.

[Max Peck]

Well, at least it seems like the NDP are in second place. Seems like the Liberals took quite a beating. It's interesting because I'd heard the opposite saying the NDP might be losing their official party status.

Hmmmm, the Liberals weren't an official party after the last election they lost that bad. They are now back in official party status with the election results from last night, so actually it's a win for them

Oh well, my mistake. I guess I was confused by the chart that was posted by Max, which clearly shows the NDP with more than the Liberals.

The NDP won more seats, but their popular support is actually much lower than that of the Liberals. I put that forward as an example of how first-past-the-post can distort election results. In this case, the NDP won roughly twice as many seats as the Liberals, but the Liberals had about 60% more popular support in terms of raw vote share.

To see how this is a comeback for the Liberals, you need to revisit the election results from 2022 and 2018 to see how their support has been recovering since the collapse that brought Ford into office. What's super interesting is that in 2018, the Liberals received 19.57% of the popular vote, which is slightly greater than the NDP's 18.6% vote share in the 2025 election. Even at their lowest point, the Liberals have still been more popular than the NDP. It's just that NDP support is concentrated in certain ridings while they are not competitive in others. It's the sort of outcome that you'd see if the riding boundaries were gerrymandered to provide a divide-and-conquer advantage to the Conservatives. Not that gerrymandering happens here, of course. It's just a weird coincidence that it shakes out like this.

[Rumpy]

Well, I guess you illustrated your example pretty well then and context matters in this case

[Rumpy]

Our Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie on CNN. I think she says it all very succinctly.

[Unagi]

Excellent share!

Yeah, she is an excellent speaker against all of this. Man- you guys are lucky to have her.

Without irony, as an American, I just want to say sorry to all the Canadians here.

I'm just so ashamed and in shock of this country right now.

[IceBear]

Now Trump is saying 250% tariffs on our dairy and lumber, maybe as early as today.

From a friend of mine:

He is obsessed with dairy keeps saying we have 360 to 600 % tariff on US dairy coming into Canada. We have a quota which he agreed to first so much eggs milk etc NO tariff after quota then high tariff. This is to prevent dumping as they are 10 times the size of us if they dumped eggs or milk etc would wipe out our farmers. It would then take years to rebuild dairy herds or chicken farms in this event. Stuff it Mango Mussolini your tariffs are blowing up in your face

This should be Trudeau's last day as Prime Minister so maybe once he's gone Trump won't take things so personally

[Blackhawk]

Which one of you is interested in helping set up an underground smuggling ring for bags of milk? We can sell them out of the back of trucks, or set up secret 'mooeasy' establishments and sell directly.

[Smoove_B]

Moving unregulated milk across state lines is a federal offense. Make sure you adequately prepare!

[hepcat]

If cows could go down stairs, I'd get one and start an illegal milk farm. But alas, I live on the second floor and I already have way too many farm animals in my place that I didn't realize couldn't go down stairs until it was too late.

[Alefroth]

Don't worry, all milk will be unregulated soon enough.

[hepcat]

Pasteurization is a conspiracy by big dairy to raise prices.

[Blackhawk]

It causes autism in cows.

[Rumpy]

Excellent share!

Yeah, she is an excellent speaker against all of this. Man- you guys are lucky to have her.

Without irony, as an American, I just want to say sorry to all the Canadians here.

I'm just so ashamed and in shock of this country right now.

Yeah, she's kind of one of my idols right now.

Which one of you is interested in helping set up an underground smuggling ring for bags of milk? We can sell them out of the back of trucks, or set up secret 'mooeasy' establishments and sell directly.

I'm surprised you know that bags of milk are even a thing up here

Now Trump is saying 250% tariffs on our dairy and lumber, maybe as early as today.

He's just throwing random numbers around at this point.

[IceBear]

The bags of milk are slowly going away. We never had them when I was growing up in Newfoundland and from what I heard, since the average family size is shrinking having 4L of milk in bag form isn't needed as much anymore.

I do believe that Joly said she's not running in the upcoming election, like many of the senior Liberals. Now that the Liberals are polling better, maybe that's changed?

From CNN:

Canada charges exorbitant tariffs on certain dairy products, including a 241% tariff on milk, much to the consternation of America’s dairy farmers, who have complained for years that the border nation is treating them unfairly.

In 2023, a trade dispute panel ruled in favor of Canada, arguing that the high import taxes did not violate the USMCA. Wisconsin Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin lambasted the decision, arguing it was creating an undue burden on her state’s dairy industry.

“Wisconsin dairy farmers work hard every day to bring world class products to market, and they deserve a level playing field with their global competitors,” Baldwin said in the wake of the November 2023 decision. “This decision flies in the face of the agreement our country made with Canada and puts our Made in Wisconsin dairy products at a disadvantage.”

But Trump, who frequently complained about high dairy tariffs in his first term in office, did not negotiate more reasonable tariffs into the USMCA treaty, which he signed.

Despite the grievances and the alarmingly high number, Canadian dairy is not a significant export, and a reciprocal 241% tariff on milk is unlikely to do significant economic damage to either country.

[Blackhawk]

Daehawk is posting pictures of milk bags all the time. Some of them are probably even Canadian!

[Rumpy]

The bags of milk are slowly going away. We never had them when I was growing up in Newfoundland and from what I heard, since the average family size is shrinking having 4L of milk in bag form isn't needed as much anymore.

Maybe in your Province, but I haven't heard such a thing in Ontario.

I do believe that Joly said she's not running in the upcoming election, like many of the senior Liberals. Now that the Liberals are polling better, maybe that's changed?

I would sincerely hope so, as we need people like her more than ever. If anything, all this recent attention have put them at the forefront and I for one appreciate the senior politicians more than ever. I feel like I'll miss Charlie Angus too as he's supposed to be retiring.

[GreenGoo]

American dairy farmers have been trying to penetrate the Canadian market for forever. It's highly protected for many reasons, not the least of which our own dairy farmers would be wiped out by the flood of incoming products from larger producers with larger economies of scale.

That said, both countries have worked together to figure out a way that American farmers can have a piece of the market without destroying the entire Canadian dairy industry. It's delicate work and is constantly being managed between the two countries. Very, very few diary products have the outlandish tariffs being shouted in headlines right now.

Drumpf making noise about this is typical drumpf. There is no headway to be made here by him, which is one of the reasons he's attacking it. He knows (or his advisors know) that we simply can't give American dairy farmers what they want (which would end up being a tiny percentage increase to their sales anyway) as it would literally destroy our dairy industry. So that's not happening. Which allows him to point at our refusal to give "America" what it deserves, and therefore any punishments are justified.

As others have pointed out, he went after the dairy market during his previous term which resulted in some tiny concessions by us, but apparently his deals are no longer valid, as he doesn't understand what negotiating in good faith means, and never has. This is just a repeat of his first term.

Whee.

"Art of the Deal". Lol. Let the grown ups work and stay out of the way. But of course that's not how he understands the world.

[Rumpy]

Yep, exactly. And just because they keep trying, they won't succeed. I think the only milk I know that is American is the Fairlife, which is Nestle. And good point on the economies of scale. Similar reason for why we have our cancon rules.

[IceBear]

The bags of milk are slowly going away. We never had them when I was growing up in Newfoundland and from what I heard, since the average family size is shrinking having 4L of milk in bag form isn't needed as much anymore.

Maybe in your Province, but I haven't heard such a thing in Ontario.

I do believe that Joly said she's not running in the upcoming election, like many of the senior Liberals. Now that the Liberals are polling better, maybe that's changed?

I would sincerely hope so, as we need people like her more than ever. If anything, all this recent attention have put them at the forefront and I for one appreciate the senior politicians more than ever. I feel like I'll miss Charlie Angus too as he's supposed to be retiring.

I live in Ontario now, so I see bags of milk. I was just commenting that bagged milk wasn't something I saw in Newfoundland until I moved to Ontario. There was an article by CBC or CTV last year or so where they said the overall demand for milk is down so a lot of consumers aren't buying bagged milk...at least not as much as in the past.

[Rumpy]

The bags of milk are slowly going away. We never had them when I was growing up in Newfoundland and from what I heard, since the average family size is shrinking having 4L of milk in bag form isn't needed as much anymore.

Maybe in your Province, but I haven't heard such a thing in Ontario.

I do believe that Joly said she's not running in the upcoming election, like many of the senior Liberals. Now that the Liberals are polling better, maybe that's changed?

I would sincerely hope so, as we need people like her more than ever. If anything, all this recent attention have put them at the forefront and I for one appreciate the senior politicians more than ever. I feel like I'll miss Charlie Angus too as he's supposed to be retiring.

I live in Ontario now, so I see bags of milk. I was just commenting that bagged milk wasn't something I saw in Newfoundland until I moved to Ontario. There was an article by CBC or CTV last year or so where they said the overall demand for milk is down so a lot of consumers aren't buying bagged milk...at least not as much as in the past.

Oh, my bad. I thought you still lived over there

[IceBear]

The bags of milk are slowly going away. We never had them when I was growing up in Newfoundland and from what I heard, since the average family size is shrinking having 4L of milk in bag form isn't needed as much anymore.

Maybe in your Province, but I haven't heard such a thing in Ontario.

I do believe that Joly said she's not running in the upcoming election, like many of the senior Liberals. Now that the Liberals are polling better, maybe that's changed?

I would sincerely hope so, as we need people like her more than ever. If anything, all this recent attention have put them at the forefront and I for one appreciate the senior politicians more than ever. I feel like I'll miss Charlie Angus too as he's supposed to be retiring.

I live in Ontario now, so I see bags of milk. I was just commenting that bagged milk wasn't something I saw in Newfoundland until I moved to Ontario. There was an article by CBC or CTV last year or so where they said the overall demand for milk is down so a lot of consumers aren't buying bagged milk...at least not as much as in the past.

Oh, my bad. I thought you still lived over there

No I'm in Ajax now, just east of Toronto

[Rumpy]

I'm guessing you don't miss the weather. I've long wanted to visit Newfoundland, but it's not likely to be anytime soon.

[IceBear]

The weather isn't nearly as bad as it was when I was living there. My dad sold his snow mobile as most of the winter now there's not enough snow and frozen water to use it. When I was a teenager we used to go a couple of kilometers offshore and clean off the ice to play hockey. My dad says that water hasn't frozen in 20 years now

[Rumpy]

Still lots of that going on over here. Ice skating, snowmobiling and ice fishing. Sometimes all on the same lakes.

[IceBear]

Yeah...Newfoundland still gets the snow and cold weather, but it's not nearly as much and it's delayed. I got cross country skis for my 13th birthday which is in the middle of November and I remember using them that day. However, I never saw a white Christmas from age 17 to 23. I moved to Ontario when I was 23 and I'm 55 this year so more of a mainlander than a Newfie now :/

[Rumpy]

It certainly gets the windchill though doesn't it? I constantly hear about how cold the wind is over there due to there not being all that much cover.

[IceBear]

I grew up on the coast, so the wind off the water is actually warmer than that off the land. I find the temperatures here get a lot lower. That said, even the warmer temps felt colder to me (probably because of the moisture in it)

[LawBeefaroni]

Ever since I was a kid I've wanted to live in Newfoundland. I grew up watching CBC Windsor 9 and would always marvel when they would announce air times: "7pm central/8pm Atlantic...8:30 in Newfoundland."

Like, WTF? That has to be magical. 30 minutes offset from the rest of the world.

[GreenGoo]

It's like the world of Earthsea. It's way out there, all alone. Except for the vikings, legends tell.

[Rumpy]

Ever since I was a kid I've wanted to live in Newfoundland. I grew up watching CBC Windsor 9 and would always marvel when they would announce air times: "7pm central/8pm Atlantic...8:30 in Newfoundland."

Like, WTF? That has to be magical. 30 minutes offset from the rest of the world.

Yeah, I'm not sure how it happened that they got their own time zone.

[IceBear]

There is somewhere in India that is 15 minutes offset with timezone.

I believe every 15 degrees is an hour and Newfoundland is 7.5 degrees east of the Atlantic timezone

The joke we used to make as kids was the world ends at 12 midnight, 1230 in Newfoundland

[Isgrimnur]

Pasteurization is a conspiracy by big dairy to raise prices.

Not to mention that woke homogenization.

[hepcat]

Apparently, Musk’s AI would throw up a warning for that word.

[Rumpy]

Oh, I'm sure it would

[GreenGoo]

Posting this for @Icebear and as a reminder to myself. Remember, drumpf/Musk/MAGA social media are not talking about facts. They are talking in sound bites, that sound good to the uneducated. Everything is ALWAYS more complicated than the layperson (including you and me) understand. It takes time and hard work to become educated enough to know what you're talking about. Even WORKING in a field does not guarantee knowledge beyond your skill set.

Remember this. Do not despair because someone somewhere said something that seemed to make common, intuitive sense, just for a good sound bite. Does the average person know what you do for a living? Could they walk in off the street and start doing your job? MAGA think they have all the answers, because they have no imagination and can't think past what their small minds can come up with. A wise man is a man who knows that he knows nothing.

This guy thinks it's just a matter of deciding to drill and oil will magically appear.