Trumponomics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

[Blackhawk]

Drazzil, I made a more detailed post in the other thread and your edit while I was typing broke it. I'm not typing it up again, so here's the short version:

OO is packed full of very, very smart, well-read, well-educated people, of people with degrees from bachelor's to doctorates, of people who are experts in their fields.

People who are used to be being the smartest person in the room who come here usually get slapped down until they learn that they're just average in the crowd here. I know I did, mostly back on Gone Gold (and largely thanks to RM9.) Be introspective - consider what it means when all the smart people tell you that something you said isn't accurate. Maybe you do know best - but make room in your brain to say, "...but maybe I don't."

[Isgrimnur]

You have this interesting way of getting some things right, and then you color everything in and it all goes south.

[Unagi]

you get it.

[Unagi]

Be introspective - consider what it means when all the smart people tell you that something you said isn't accurate. Maybe you do know best - but make room in your brain to say, "...but maybe I don't."

What I find interesting, is that I feel that I've seen Drazzil do just that but then he will go on to say something like he just did - on some other point he's (not) making - or even occasionally a revisit to a previous one.

[Drazzil]

This kind of unpredictable shit works I suppose in the high value real estate world or on reality television but I think most industries would prefer a coherent serious economic policy versus one based on whimsy.

And Zarthaud being some gaslighting agent provocateur is just one of the strangest things I’ve read today…unless he’s fooled me as well that fucker!

Yah you got me. I'm sorry. I was ermm... out of touch myself.

[$iljanus]

This kind of unpredictable shit works I suppose in the high value real estate world or on reality television but I think most industries would prefer a coherent serious economic policy versus one based on whimsy.

And Zarthaud being some gaslighting agent provocateur is just one of the strangest things I’ve read today…unless he’s fooled me as well that fucker!

Yah you got me. I'm sorry. I was ermm... out of touch myself.

Unless it was Zarthaud all along...

(no worries Drazz)

[IceBear]

And paused on Canada for 30 days too. If this keeps up every 30 days I'm going to lose my shit (more than I've already lost it).
According to the White House only 50% of the imports from Mexico and 36% from Canada are covered by the USMCA agreement, so still most of our trade will be tariffed.

[Rumpy]

Drazzil, I made a more detailed post in the other thread and your edit while I was typing broke it. I'm not typing it up again, so here's the short version:

OO is packed full of very, very smart, well-read, well-educated people, of people with degrees from bachelor's to doctorates, of people who are experts in their fields.

People who are used to be being the smartest person in the room who come here usually get slapped down until they learn that they're just average in the crowd here. I know I did, mostly back on Gone Gold (and largely thanks to RM9.) Be introspective - consider what it means when all the smart people tell you that something you said isn't accurate. Maybe you do know best - but make room in your brain to say, "...but maybe I don't."

+11!

[Rumpy]

And paused on Canada for 30 days too. If this keeps up every 30 days I'm going to lose my shit (more than I've already lost it).
According to the White House only 50% of the imports from Mexico and 36% from Canada are covered by the USMCA agreement, so still most of our trade will be tariffed.

Yeah, I don't know if Trump thought we'd actually go through with our tariffs, but I'm hoping it gave him pause now that we have. I've been seeing pictures of our liquor stores full of empty shelves usually full of American liquor. It's surreal.

[GreenGoo]

And paused on Canada for 30 days too. If this keeps up every 30 days I'm going to lose my shit (more than I've already lost it).

This is normal for drumpf. He wants all of Canada to lose their shit until they beg him to stop. This is all he knows how to do. For real. Anything that isn't this is something someone convinced him to do, but even then, since whatever it is isn't his idea, he will be VERY fast to roll it back if he sees it as showing weakness in some way, even if it's not. Don't forget he's an idiot, so he doesn't understand the ramifications of most of what he does, outside of how people react to it.

"Will I? Won't I? You don't know! I'm playing 4 dimensional chess here!"

When what he's really doing is sowing chaos until people beg him to stop because he believes that's what power does.

@Rumpy, he won't stop because of anything we do directly. When the pain makes it way up the chain to his advisors, and drumpf starts to feel insecure, he'll declare victory. Hell, he'll declare victory even if America will have lost ground in its trade deals. It's a "W" all the time with MAGA baby! Even when it's not. Which is often.

These aren't even really predictions. There are years of observed behaviour behind these comments. I'm I 100% right? Probably not. But I feel pretty confident.

[Drazzil]

Drazzil, I made a more detailed post in the other thread and your edit while I was typing broke it. I'm not typing it up again, so here's the short version:

OO is packed full of very, very smart, well-read, well-educated people, of people with degrees from bachelor's to doctorates, of people who are experts in their fields.

People who are used to be being the smartest person in the room who come here usually get slapped down until they learn that they're just average in the crowd here. I know I did, mostly back on Gone Gold (and largely thanks to RM9.) Be introspective - consider what it means when all the smart people tell you that something you said isn't accurate. Maybe you do know best - but make room in your brain to say, "...but maybe I don't."

+11!

Thanks for the advice BH. I mean that. I am trying to be more trainable. I think I let my emotions slip the leash here. For that I apologize.

[IceBear]

And paused on Canada for 30 days too. If this keeps up every 30 days I'm going to lose my shit (more than I've already lost it).
According to the White House only 50% of the imports from Mexico and 36% from Canada are covered by the USMCA agreement, so still most of our trade will be tariffed.

Yeah, I don't know if Trump thought we'd actually go through with our tariffs, but I'm hoping it gave him pause now that we have. I've been seeing pictures of our liquor stores full of empty shelves usually full of American liquor. It's surreal.

My understanding is nothing has changed on our end. The tariffs we put in place on Tuesday remain and Ford is going to increase the tariffs of Ontario's electricity by 25%. There was something I saw about maybe we won't do the 2nd round of our tariffs if there was a pause, but considering the White House said only 36% of our exports would be exempt, I suspect our next round of tariffs are coming in 21 days.

[waitingtoconnect]

I think they are crashing the economy on purpose so they blame Biden. Once six months passes even Maga voters will blame Trump.

[Smoove_B]

I think they are crashing the economy on purpose so they blame Biden. Once six months passes even Maga voters will blame Trump.

I think you have it a bit twisted. I think they're looting the federal government (literally and figuratively) and selling us out to foreign interests. They're doing it quickly so Biden can be blamed for everything (this is all "Biden ripples") - including the crashing of the economy. The longer it takes them to enrich themselves and gain power/money, the harder it's going to be to blame the Biden administration.

Part of me thinks they genuinely hope the Bird Flu takes off - it'll be another national crisis that provides cover for their oligarch-fueled shenanigans. In fact, any national (or regional crisis) helps provide cover - even if they're helping to cause it.

[Zaxxon]

And paused on Canada for 30 days too. If this keeps up every 30 days I'm going to lose my shit (more than I've already lost it).
According to the White House only 50% of the imports from Mexico and 36% from Canada are covered by the USMCA agreement, so still most of our trade will be tariffed.

Yeah, I don't know if Trump thought we'd actually go through with our tariffs, but I'm hoping it gave him pause now that we have. I've been seeing pictures of our liquor stores full of empty shelves usually full of American liquor. It's surreal.

My understanding is nothing has changed on our end. The tariffs we put in place on Tuesday remain and Ford is going to increase the tariffs of Ontario's electricity by 25%. There was something I saw about maybe we won't do the 2nd round of our tariffs if there was a pause, but considering the White House said only 36% of our exports would be exempt, I suspect our next round of tariffs are coming in 21 days.

Were I Canada, I would move forward as though Trump is eventually going to knife you. Keep 'em in place. We need pressure on Trump, and that's only going to come from pissed-off Americans.

[Zarathud]

I no longer believe 80% of the people on this board are debating in good faith. The gaslighting and dismissiveness is fuckin outstanding.

Lol.

I know and represent politicians and business people. So I’m not going to treat them all the same because they’re not. A few are gleeful about Trump’s politics while many others are more than concerned or fighting back in real ways. I’m not ignorant of people and hating on them to make myself feel better.

But I have no worries if you hate me, Drazzil. I could have been you but worked my ass off to get ahead and be more than just a degree. The American Dream was a promise of an Opportunity. There are no Participation Trophies in Life.

[Holman]

My marriage is ending and I'm preparing to move out and buy a small house or condo. My wife is buying me out of our shared house. Our timescale is for me to have found a new place by the end of June.

I can't believe this is happening as if the world is normal and that all the necessary systems and jobs and securities will be in place four months from now, let alone in perpetuity. It feels very weird.

[Drazzil]

I no longer believe 80% of the people on this board are debating in good faith. The gaslighting and dismissiveness is fuckin outstanding.

Lol.

I know and represent politicians and business people. So I’m not going to treat them all the same because they’re not. A few are gleeful about Trump’s politics while many others are more than concerned or fighting back in real ways. I’m not ignorant of people and hating on them to make myself feel better.

But I have no worries if you hate me, Drazzil. I could have been you but worked my ass off to get ahead and be more than just a degree. The American Dream was a promise of an Opportunity. There are no Participation Trophies in Life.

I don't hate you, but I do hate the billionaire class. You don't get to get and stay a billionaire without having sociopathic traits. Also please understand I worked my ass off too to try to better myself. Took me almost 7 years to get a four year degree because I was taking care of mom full time and working part time and going to school full time on top of that. I just graduated into the teeth of a small d depression and I never found an entry level job because they just... weren't there. Worked warehouse for 7 years to make ends meet and settled in there.

As far as the American dream. It was a promise but I was sold a bill of goods. My whole cohort got screwed.

Out of a cohort of a hundred only a handful ever got business or marketing jobs.

I'm never going to get a job that uses my degree, own a house, have a family or achieve anything with my life. Systems too stacked against me. I accept that. I have a nice little job that pays my bills, I am EXTREMELY lucky to have enough left over at the end of the month to buy extravagant meals for my cat, and to collect coins here n there. If I want something I save for a few months and buy it.

I love my co workers, my work is easy and fufilling, I get to read a lot... So American dream lite?

[Isgrimnur]

I just graduated into the teeth of a small d depression and I never found an entry level job because they just... weren't there. Worked warehouse for 7 years to make ends meet and settled in there.

I got my MIS degree in 2000. There were no entry-level programming jobs. I worked in call centers until 2007, when I went back to my college, went to the career fair, and seven years after graduation, got an entry-level job right before the next recession at the age of 31.

[Rumpy]

And paused on Canada for 30 days too. If this keeps up every 30 days I'm going to lose my shit (more than I've already lost it).

This is normal for drumpf. He wants all of Canada to lose their shit until they beg him to stop. This is all he knows how to do. For real. Anything that isn't this is something someone convinced him to do, but even then, since whatever it is isn't his idea, he will be VERY fast to roll it back if he sees it as showing weakness in some way, even if it's not. Don't forget he's an idiot, so he doesn't understand the ramifications of most of what he does, outside of how people react to it.

"Will I? Won't I? You don't know! I'm playing 4 dimensional chess here!"

When what he's really doing is sowing chaos until people beg him to stop because he believes that's what power does.

@Rumpy, he won't stop because of anything we do directly. When the pain makes it way up the chain to his advisors, and drumpf starts to feel insecure, he'll declare victory. Hell, he'll declare victory even if America will have lost ground in its trade deals. It's a "W" all the time with MAGA baby! Even when it's not. Which is often.

These aren't even really predictions. There are years of observed behaviour behind these comments. I'm I 100% right? Probably not. But I feel pretty confident.

Yeah, you're right. I guess I just find the timing for the pauses interesting and I don't know if it directly has anything to do with what Canada just did.

But yeah, kind of feels like Groundhog day in the sense that we see this repetition all the time.

[Drazzil]

I just graduated into the teeth of a small d depression and I never found an entry level job because they just... weren't there. Worked warehouse for 7 years to make ends meet and settled in there.

I got my MIS degree in 2000. There were no entry-level programming jobs. I worked in call centers until 2007, when I went back to my college, went to the career fair, and seven years after graduation, got an entry-level job right before the next recession at the age of 31.

I'm tugging things WAY off base here. I'll post a status update in EBG.

[GreenGoo]

Well, let me clarify. He's not rolling dice. Things happen, he makes decisions, other things happen, he makes other decisions. But not in the way that most of us evaluate reality and base our decision making on cause and effect and probable outcomes.

Even crazy people have ideas about what they want and how to get it. It's just not always based on the reality the rest of us are sharing. I'm quite certain he *is* a stable genius, in his own head. We don't all live in his head though. I hope not anyway.

[Blackhawk]

I'm never going to get a job that uses my degree, own a house, have a family or achieve anything with my life. Systems too stacked against me. I accept that. I have a nice little job that pays my bills, I am EXTREMELY lucky to have enough left over at the end of the month to buy extravagant meals for my cat, and to collect coins here n there. If I want something I save for a few months and buy it.

I love my co workers, my work is easy and fufilling, I get to read a lot... So American dream lite?

If you choose it willingly, it can be a dream. But the first part - if you plan and work for it, it might still it'll happen - although there are no guarantees. But if you don't strive for it, it won't happen. That much is a guarantee.

[Blackhawk]

And Drazzil - as a member of 'that' generation you insist had everything handed to them, I could give you lessons about what it means to have the system stacked against you.

[Rumpy]

Drazzil, I made a more detailed post in the other thread and your edit while I was typing broke it. I'm not typing it up again, so here's the short version:

OO is packed full of very, very smart, well-read, well-educated people, of people with degrees from bachelor's to doctorates, of people who are experts in their fields.

People who are used to be being the smartest person in the room who come here usually get slapped down until they learn that they're just average in the crowd here. I know I did, mostly back on Gone Gold (and largely thanks to RM9.) Be introspective - consider what it means when all the smart people tell you that something you said isn't accurate. Maybe you do know best - but make room in your brain to say, "...but maybe I don't."

+11!

Thanks for the advice BH. I mean that. I am trying to be more trainable. I think I let my emotions slip the leash here. For that I apologize.

Draz, for what it's worth, given that everything has been in a constant state of flux ever since he won the vote, everyone learns everyday. So I wouldn't feel too bad. These are unprecedented times and we're all trying to adapt and figure things out.

[Kraken]

But obviously there are MAJOR differences between the parties in terms of their goals.

I am 100% with you on this. I didn't want to believe it was true, but I can't ignore what's been happening the last ~5 years at a national level. The Democrats largely support and are pushing social advancement. However, there definitely seems to be a significant number of them that are either (1) totally clueless or isolated from the daily struggles of the average American or (2) want to improve society but won't vote against their own personal ($) interest when push comes to shove. I completely believe there are politicians enriching themselves based on knowledge, information and contacts that they have - on both sides of the isle.

Someone could totally be for paid parental leave as a national policy but still enjoy the personal financial benefits that come with knowing things as a Congressman or Senator and somehow see nothing wrong with it - that it's just a "perk" of being in that position.

Sure, both parties serve the oligarchy. Money goes hand-in-hand with power, after all. But they serve different oligarchs, and the Dems generally work to protect the powerless and invest in the country as well -- if not from the goodness of their hearts, then because that's how a country becomes rich and powerful. Republicans used to do that, too, albeit with different methods and priorities, but the R Party is no longer even pretending. Their oligarchs are openly running the show while looting the rest of us.

I think they are crashing the economy on purpose so they blame Biden. Once six months passes even Maga voters will blame Trump.

I think you have it a bit twisted. I think they're looting the federal government (literally and figuratively) and selling us out to foreign interests. They're doing it quickly so Biden can be blamed for everything (this is all "Biden ripples") - including the crashing of the economy. The longer it takes them to enrich themselves and gain power/money, the harder it's going to be to blame the Biden administration.

Part of me thinks they genuinely hope the Bird Flu takes off - it'll be another national crisis that provides cover for their oligarch-fueled shenanigans. In fact, any national (or regional crisis) helps provide cover - even if they're helping to cause it.

To the extent that they have a plan, Musk is driving it. When the government's been stripped of all but its most rudimentary functions, Musk et al will get all the contracts to provide those. They want to privatize the USPS, NOAA, the VA, and the national park system. Guess who's going to own what remains of those services?

[Drazzil]

All I know is this talk of Tariffs caused me to replace my PC and my TV and I'm waffling on replacing my cell phone too. The google pixel is fluctating between 4 and 5 hundred and I've had it in my cart 4 times.

[Victoria Raverna]

Probably better to save your money? If everything is going to be more expensive, you might need to spend more for your needs later on.

[msduncan]

I thought about replacing my PC ahead of the tariffs. However, I have a 3080ti and the 5000 series is just stupid expensive at the moment even without the tariffs. Plus, my current system runs every game at high settings so it seemed like a dumb decision. So, I upgraded around my system instead with the desk, monitor, etc. I'll save the PC upgrade for another year assuming that neither China nor the US can sustain tariffs, and they will eventually fall to the wayside.

[Drazzil]

Probably better to save your money? If everything is going to be more expensive, you might need to spend more for your needs later on.

I thought about replacing my PC ahead of the tariffs. However, I have a 3080ti and the 5000 series is just stupid expensive at the moment even without the tariffs. Plus, my current system runs every game at high settings so it seemed like a dumb decision. So, I upgraded around my system instead with the desk, monitor, etc. I'll save the PC upgrade for another year assuming that neither China nor the US can sustain tariffs, and they will eventually fall to the wayside.

You know I had issues with the last PC for it's entire life. It was offically almost 5 years old and while I was in the process of replacing it the video died on the PC for good. I tried various things but ultimately I took the damn thing apart and sent the MB, the GPU and the processor apart and shipped it to a guy who is kind of down on his luck.

As far as the phone, mine is a lower end model that samsung keeps sending me garbage upgrades to fill my storage space and I cant get rid of the degredation without a root so I upgrade. Also the charging port on this ones just about dead (extremely unreliable) so Im gonna need to replace it with something.

[IceBear]

He just said he was going to announce 250% tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber.

[hepcat]

Canada needs to fight back hard. Trump wants 250 percent on dairy? You go 300 percent on car parts. The only way this ends is when Americans are paying astronomical prices for things. The economy will break Trump if he continues this shit. That's probably why he keeps backing off on tariffs at the eleventh hour. But honestly, Canada should just go ahead with them, even when Trump pulls back.

[IceBear]

Well, he's not 100% wrong. Because your market is so much bigger than up here, there's a quota on dairy up here. Under the quota it's tariff free, but when it goes over it's tariffed high. It was part of the agreement that he signed back in 2019, but anyway, we do have high tariffs to protect our dairy farmers (plus we have regulations keeping antibiotics and growth hormones out of milk which I assume any foreign milk needs to adhere to as well)

[Rumpy]

Not to mention that we have stricter standards on dairy and meat products, with farms being inspected much more rigorously.

[LawBeefaroni]

And Zarthaud being some gaslighting agent provocateur is just one of the strangest things I’ve read today…unless he’s fooled me as well that fucker!

Doubly so, considering the source.

In truth, he's known around town as Ole Lampy given all the gaslighting he does.

"What happened here?" we'll ask.
"That Ole Lampy came a callin' an' now we're all sorts a mixed up..." they'll say, "on account of his gaslightin' and all."

[GreenGoo]

Fuck it. Zarathud is now "ole Lampy" from now on.

So decreed.

edit: Ole is not old.

[Unagi]

People think Chicago is called 'the Windy City' because of all the strong lake winds, but it's actually because of Zarathud.

[Zaxxon]

People think Chicago is called 'the Windy City' because of all the strong lake winds, but it's actually because of Zarathud.

Hepcat. You mis-spelled Hepcat.

[Isgrimnur]

Olé Lampy. Get him a cape and whatever that hat is.

[Blackhawk]

I believe the term is lampshade.