Canada 2015-25 and Beyond: New Hope or Phantom Menace?

[IceBear]

Honestly, when I had my big freak out a couple of weeks ago, something in me snapped and now I'm more or less numb inside. I comment and share info to keep people informed but my body hit peak anxiety and just can't muster any additional fear. I think I'm just in the acceptance phase

[GreenGoo]

Honestly, when I had my big freak out a couple of weeks ago, something in me snapped and now I'm more or less numb inside. I comment and share info to keep people informed but my body hit peak anxiety and just can't muster any additional fear. I think I'm just in the acceptance phase

It's a stressful, difficult time for most Canadians and Americans. It's hard to stay positive and resilient. Accept that times are difficult. Don't accept that the only possible outcome is a negative one, because it's not.

[Unagi]

That natural state of my shit right now is lost. I can try and get my shit together but I'll only lose it again. So, I just let it stay lost and collect it before important things like dealing with other people.

[Rumpy]

Honestly, when I had my big freak out a couple of weeks ago, something in me snapped and now I'm more or less numb inside. I comment and share info to keep people informed but my body hit peak anxiety and just can't muster any additional fear. I think I'm just in the acceptance phase

It's a stressful, difficult time for most Canadians and Americans. It's hard to stay positive and resilient. Accept that times are difficult. Don't accept that the only possible outcome is a negative one, because it's not.

Exactly. Best to keep a hopeful tone and attitude. We will get through this.

[Alefroth]

I'm a documented Canadian citizen now.

[Rumpy]

Seriously? Congrats, dude! I bet you must feel some relief.

[Holman]

I'm a documented Canadian citizen now.

[Unagi]

I'm a documented Canadian citizen now.

How? Have you been living there?

[Alefroth]

Seriously? Congrats, dude! I bet you must feel some relief.

It does feel good, and it was a four year effort, so very relieved as well.

[Alefroth]

I'm a documented Canadian citizen now.

How? Have you been living there?

No, my mother was born in Montreal so I'm a citizen by descent. I applied for a citizenship certificate with all the necessary supporting documents.

[Smoove_B]

That's really cool and I'd do it myself if I could. I thought I'd read you can do something similar for Irish citizenship if you have grandparents that were born there, which my grandmother was. I'd try to claim Ukrainian citizenship on my other side, but I'm not sure that would be useful here.

[Kraken]

I'm a documented Canadian citizen now.

How? Have you been living there?

No, my mother was born in Montreal so I'm a citizen by descent. I applied for a citizenship certificate with all the necessary supporting documents.

Nice. Wife's family has roots in Canada but I imagine that trail is cold, since you have to go back 2 generations to find someone not born in the USA.

[Rumpy]

Seriously? Congrats, dude! I bet you must feel some relief.

It does feel good, and it was a four year effort, so very relieved as well.

Long road to get there, but well worth it, I'm sure you'll agree!

Well, this feels as good a place as any to post this in celebration of your success!

25 Years ago we had our classic Joe Canadian Molson ad



Now 25 years later the actor has updated it:

[Alefroth]

I'm a documented Canadian citizen now.

How? Have you been living there?

No, my mother was born in Montreal so I'm a citizen by descent. I applied for a citizenship certificate with all the necessary supporting documents.

Nice. Wife's family has roots in Canada but I imagine that trail is cold, since you have to go back 2 generations to find someone not born in the USA.

There is currently a bill to extend that beyond first generation. It's kind of in limbo at the moment.

[Alefroth]

Seriously? Congrats, dude! I bet you must feel some relief.

It does feel good, and it was a four year effort, so very relieved as well.

Long road to get there, but well worth it, I'm sure you'll agree!

Indeed. I may not ever be able to take advantage of it, but it feels good to have it even if I did have to swear an implied oath to King Charles.

Well, this feels as good a place as any to post this in celebration of your success!

Thanks!

[Kraken]

I'm a documented Canadian citizen now.

How? Have you been living there?

No, my mother was born in Montreal so I'm a citizen by descent. I applied for a citizenship certificate with all the necessary supporting documents.

Nice. Wife's family has roots in Canada but I imagine that trail is cold, since you have to go back 2 generations to find someone not born in the USA.

There is currently a bill to extend that beyond first generation. It's kind of in limbo at the moment.

Can I be Canadian if I promise to bring New England with me? Cuz I don't think that would be a hard sell.

[Rumpy]

Vermont has much in common with us, so yes.

[Kraken]

Vermont has much in common with us, so yes.

In light of Vermont's enthusiasm for guns, you might find Massachusetts more akin. This is not to disparage VT, my second-favorite state, which exemplifies how the 2nd Amendment should work.

[IceBear]

My two favorite lines from that new I am Canadian video is:

"We'll never be the 51st anything"

and

"Don't confuse our love for hot, cheesy poutine for your love for a hot, cheesy Putin"

[Unagi]

While the court of the internet could probably defend the word 'cheesy' in this use. It's not the first word that comes to mind when I think of Putin critiques. I'd just drop the "hot, cheesy" and it's way better - because that one is quite good.


"Don't confuse our love for poutine for your love for Putin"

or

"You keep the Putin, we'll keep the poutine"

[Unagi]

Of course, I could see Trump really liking cheese fries - so maybe we have this all reversed.

Does he think the Ukraine is fighting an army that's backed by Cheese Fries - and he just wants the cheese fries to come out victorious?

[Holman]

That's really cool and I'd do it myself if I could. I thought I'd read you can do something similar for Irish citizenship if you have grandparents that were born there, which my grandmother was. I'd try to claim Ukrainian citizenship on my other side, but I'm not sure that would be useful here.

As far as I've been able to determine, all of my direct ancestors were already in the Carolinas and the "Southwest territory" (later Tennessee) before the USA was formed.

I used to think that was cool, but now it kind of sucks.

[Rumpy]

Vermont has much in common with us, so yes.

In light of Vermont's enthusiasm for guns, you might find Massachusetts more akin. This is not to disparage VT, my second-favorite state, which exemplifies how the 2nd Amendment should work.

They can protect us though I've actually spent little time in MA and way more time in VT, so I'm more familiar with it and their line of thinking is more in line with ours.

[Rumpy]

Jim Cuddy of Blue Rodeo has written an apt song called: We Used to be the Best of Friends.

[Holman]

Jim Cuddy of Blue Rodeo has written an apt song called: We Used to be the Best of Friends.

Thanks for posting. The final 30 seconds are good to hear, but otherwise it's just such a sad song.

[Rumpy]

Yeah, kind of a sad breakup song. Kind of sobering at the same time though.

[Alefroth]

Now that's a landslide.

[Alefroth]

Sounds like Carney might call for an election much sooner rather than later, because of the rising momentum, and to legitimize his position as only the 2nd PM to not have a seat in Parliament.

[IceBear]

Yeah, we need a functional government sooner than later since Trump said today that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico (I'm sure more Canada) could go up April 2nd from 25%

[Rumpy]

We got a campaign flyer for our local PC Candidate in the mail this weekend.

[Max Peck]

Sounds like Carney might call for an election much sooner rather than later, because of the rising momentum, and to legitimize his position as only the 2nd PM to not have a seat in Parliament.

If the NDP are still insisting on bringing down the government, then the timing of a general election won't be up to Carney.

If they don't, I'd expect that he'll choose to run in a by-election, by means of a Liberal in a safe riding stepping down -- quite possibly Trudeau, since that would let him step aside instead of being on the back bench. Momentum takes time to build and at the moment the Conservatives are still more likely to form the next government, so I'd say he's better off with more time to show what he can do in terms of dealing with the American problem.

However, I doubt that the NDP wants to give him that time, since if he consolidates public support a lot will come at the expense of the NDP rather than the Conservatives.

BTW, for those that are unaware, Canada's version of the newly defunct 538 is https://338canada.com/. The name is kind of outdated, since the number of federal ridings has increased to 343.

[Holman]

As an internationally ignorant USAmerican, I'd love a simple primer on how the Canadian elections are looking and what we can all expect from them. Is it--and I'm afraid to ask--maybe good news?

Thanks!

[IceBear]

It's most likely our Trump-lite in the PC party will win, but it'll be much closer than it would have been without Trump's tariffs and annexation threats

[Rumpy]

Icebear, I thought you'd like to see this. Charlie Angus has been well-spoken during all this, and I only wish he weren't retiring. I find voices like his inspiring. Of course, much of of what he speaks about is hypothetical. Let us keep up the good fight. Elbows Up!

[Max Peck]

Here is the current 338Canada federal projections. They're currently showing a Conservative minority, which is a big shift from the Conservative blow-out that was expected not that long ago.



There has been a huge swing in favor of the Liberals, and now it's the NDP that is looking like they might need to worry about whether they have official status in Parliament (they need at least 12 seats, IIRC).

Here's their popular vote projection data in the time domain. I was surprised to see that the Liberal upswing seems to be coming at the expense of both the NDP and Conservatives, and even to some extent the Bloc Quebecois. It'll be interesting to see if anything changes significantly now that it's no longer about Trudeau.

[Alefroth]

Here is the current 338Canada federal projections. They're currently showing a Conservative minority, which is a big shift from the Conservative blow-out that was expected not that long ago.

Could the Liberals form a coalition government with either NDP or BQ?

[Rumpy]

The NDP pulled away from supporting the Liberals, but that was under Trudeau's leadership as PM. Under Carney, that could potentially change. Hard to say at this point. I don't see anything happening with the BQ though since that is more of a provincial party rather than a national one.

[Max Peck]

Could the Liberals form a coalition government with either NDP or BQ?

Generally the way things work is that if there isn't a majority, the Governor General will invite the party with the most seats to form a government. If they then lose a vote of confidence, the GG may invite the number 2 party to form a government, or may dissolve parliament and call a new election. Usually it's going to mean a new election, but IIRC they can give the runners up a shot if, for example, there would otherwise likely be a series of back to back elections.

If we assume election results that match the current projection, then it's hard to see how the Liberals would be able to put together a coalition. Nobody is going to want to bring the BQ into their government because the Bloc is only just shy of being outright separatists who only care about Quebec, and the Liberals + NDP + Greens would still be short of the 172 seats needed for a majority. As it stands, either of a Conservative or Liberal minority would exist at the whim of the BQ. Under those circumstances, I'd expect the GG would dissolve parliament and call a new election in hope more decisive results if the Conservative minority lost a vote of confidence.

[Punisher]

Of course, I could see Trump really liking cheese fries - so maybe we have this all reversed.

Does he think the Ukraine is fighting an army that's backed by Cheese Fries - and he just wants the cheese fries to come out victorious?

Isn't poitine just Canadian disco fries?

[Alefroth]

Thanks for the explanations. So all that would basically apply to the conservatives as well since they also seem unlikely to win a majority?