Trumponomics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

[Smoove_B]

This is just the stupidest economic policy I could imagine.

This was printed in October of 2024.

America’s economy is bigger and better than ever
Will politics bring it back to Earth?

Nope. An absolute moron will.

If only there existed some type of legislative body that actually had the power to simply vaporize all his nonsense tariffs by voting on something official. I guess we'll never know.

[Rumpy]

Yeah, not to mention that I think you can only tax legal products, and that illegal products are the ones that avoid detection therefore entirely. Therefore you can't tax what you can't see. Even Al Capone knew this, even though he got caught with tax evasion.

Taxing illegal drugs is like... uhh charging the ghosts in your house rent.

Interesting tangent: many states already tax the sale of illegal drugs -- not because dealers are expected to buy tax stamps, but rather to add tax evasion to the charges that can be leveled against them.

Even if someone is not convicted of criminal charges for drug possession or tax evasion, they may still face civil (monetary) penalties that vary by state: these can require payments of up to double the original amount of tax owed, as well as interest on the tax owed. Revenue agencies can use all their standard tools to collect this tax, including issuing tax liens, seizing assets, or garnishing wages.

Well, when you put it that way, it does make slightly more sense. Building the evasion into the tax is one way to do it, I guess. Does that mean that the overall price of drugs goes up?

[Isgrimnur]

[Kraken]

Yeah, not to mention that I think you can only tax legal products, and that illegal products are the ones that avoid detection therefore entirely. Therefore you can't tax what you can't see. Even Al Capone knew this, even though he got caught with tax evasion.

Taxing illegal drugs is like... uhh charging the ghosts in your house rent.

Interesting tangent: many states already tax the sale of illegal drugs -- not because dealers are expected to buy tax stamps, but rather to add tax evasion to the charges that can be leveled against them.

Even if someone is not convicted of criminal charges for drug possession or tax evasion, they may still face civil (monetary) penalties that vary by state: these can require payments of up to double the original amount of tax owed, as well as interest on the tax owed. Revenue agencies can use all their standard tools to collect this tax, including issuing tax liens, seizing assets, or garnishing wages.

Well, when you put it that way, it does make slightly more sense. Building the evasion into the tax is one way to do it, I guess. Does that mean that the overall price of drugs goes up?

IDK anything about black market drugs since cannabis was legalized. This isn't relevant to tariffs, though.

[Alefroth]

If only there existed some type of legislative body that actually had the power to simply vaporize all his nonsense tariffs by voting on something official. I guess we'll never know.

It's something at least-

https://apnews.com/article/congress-tar ... b81337e3ec

[Grifman]

The other point I would make is where are all the workers for the return of manufacturing going to fine from? The U.S. already has historically low unemployment and as the population ages, it is going to get harder to find workers. This would sort of make sense if we weee experiencing high unemployment but we are not.

Another thing that has gone unnoted by many is that the U.S. specialization in areas other than manufacturing has been a benefit. The middle class has shrunk, but the movement has not been downward, but upward - the upper middle class has increased by the amount that the middle class has decreased. It is the Apples, Microsofts, Bank of America’s, etc that have benefited, and they pay more than factory jobs.

Lastly, US manufacturing actually has doubled in real terms since WW2 - but we do it with only 20% or so of the same number of workers. It is just a lower amount relative to GDP as the U.S. earns much more now from other areas.

Trump just fundamentally does not understand economics or international trade. We’ll see if he can get by violating the basic principles of economics. I’m betting he won’t.

[Grifman]

Apparently Trump’s tariffs for each country aren’t actually based upon the tariffs they charge the U.S. but instead based upon the U.S. trade deficit with each country divided by imports. It doesn’t even make any economic sense.

This is all so half assed.

[Victoria Raverna]

Any guess how long he is going to keep the tariffs before he is forced to cancel them?

[Grifman]

Any guess how long he is going to keep the tariffs before he is forced to cancel them?

It all depends on how much MAGA is willing to suffer, and even then it may not matter. Theoretically, Trump’s a lame duck, and he doesn’t really care about the Republican Party, so he could just say, “Screw it all”, and refuse to admit he’s wrong and change course.

[Unagi]

His goal is to give Russia a destroyed America. Everything he does is in line with that. It wont stop.

[Scraper]

Any guess how long he is going to keep the tariffs before he is forced to cancel them?

It all depends on how much MAGA is willing to suffer, and even then it may not matter. Theoretically, Trump’s a lame duck, and he doesn’t really care about the Republican Party, so he could just say, “Screw it all”, and refuse to admit he’s wrong and change course.

My best guess is that the mid terms will swing both houses and then they'll be able to undo some of the damage. That's my hope at least.

[LordMortis]

My best guess is that the mid terms will swing both houses and then they'll be able to undo some of the damage. That's my hope at least.

My fear is we have 20 months for voter suppression and electoral shenanigans to take hold. I'd think early indicators would show the House flipping and the trajectory should see the senate flip but I'm pretty certain this GOP administration aren't going to be bound by norms and laws to keep from losing the power they have now, voters be damned.

"you won't have to vote again"
-This GOP Administration

And then, we still have to overcome whatever it is that we've become that has empowered this GOP administration to date, irrespective of shenanigans.

[YellowKing]

We're going to have to hope, like in Wisconsin, that Dems turn out in such overwhelming numbers that even the election shenanigans won't work. Expecting voters to get off their ass and actually care about their country is asking a lot, I know, but it's the only shot we have.

[Max Peck]

In a surprise manoeuvre in the ongoing Trade War, Denmark has cut a deal with Canada to flank the USA in Panama.

Denmark's Maersk buys Panama Canal Railway Company

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO) said on Wednesday it and U.S.-based Lanco Group have sold the Panama Canal Railway Company to a unit of Denmark's Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), one of the world's largest container shipping groups.

The Canadian railway company did not disclose terms of the deal, but added the deal would help it focus on its core assets in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.

The acquisition "represents an attractive infrastructure investment in the region aligned to our core services of intermodal container movement," said Keith Svendsen, CEO of Maersk's unit APM Terminals.

Founded as a joint venture between units of Canadian Pacific and Lanco Group, the Panama Railway Company provides rail-based freight and passenger services along the canal. It posted a revenue of $77 million last year.

The deal comes at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has threatened to take over the canal - built by the United States and returned to Panama in 1999 - over allegations of growing foreign presence, especially China.

[IceBear]

Saw a bluesky post today (can't find it now) where the theory was, he wants to tank the economy so when private business comes begging for help he can control them just like he's trying to control the courts and the universities. He'll get concessions from them like he got from Columbia university in order to further damage democracy.

[LordMortis]

Saw a bluesky post today (can't find it now) where the theory was, he wants to tank the economy so when private business comes begging for help he can control them just like he's trying to control the courts and the universities. He'll get concessions from them like he got from Columbia university in order to further damage democracy.

From where I sit, it's the other way around. Corrupt enterprise level (foreign and domestic) private equity are increasing their economic controls and are already sleeping with the GOP machine while (US based) public companies and the masses take it on the chin and their leadership come to bend the knee.

Also, I'm sure we are going to see a huge upswing in consumerism hoarding in the short term (pulling forward) and the GOP will point to this as economic success and then will chastise public companies for poor forward looking outlooks and chastise them for pushing through price increases.

Turned on CNBC out of curiosity. Carl is talking S&P 4800 and retirement savings concerns. Which of course is my concern.

Mnunchin is now on admitting tariffs are a consumption tax and that "He hopes it will provide tax and debt relief." Because consumption taxes aren't disproportionate to the less wealthy and the tax breaks will go to them. And adds "this is great for private equity and the president a great deal maker."

[Kraken]

Any guess how long he is going to keep the tariffs before he is forced to cancel them?

They will be reduced or removed piecemeal, depending on other leaders' bribes. I expect that to begin immediately.

[LordMortis]

Any guess how long he is going to keep the tariffs before he is forced to cancel them?

They will be reduced or removed piecemeal, depending on other leaders' bribes. I expect that to begin immediately.

And publicly traded companies kissing the ring. Vietnam was hit hard. If you get a conglomerate for companies like Nike suddenly publicly endorsing and contributing to the Project 2025 agenda then victory will be declared and relief will happen.

[Kurth]

Any guess how long he is going to keep the tariffs before he is forced to cancel them?

They will be reduced or removed piecemeal, depending on other leaders' bribes. I expect that to begin immediately.

And publicly traded companies kissing the ring. Vietnam was hit hard. If you get a conglomerate for companies like Nike suddenly publicly endorsing and contributing to the Project 2025 agenda then victory will be declared and relief will happen.

I worked at Nike for 10 years. Nike is not going to kiss Trump’s ring. Not only is it way off brand, it’s also arguably antithetical to the company’s ethos.

[Smoove_B]

DOGE-fueled layoffs are part of Trumponomics, right?

Layoffs across the U.S. surged 205% in March when compared with a year earlier, with last month's 275,240 job cuts fueled by widespread firings engineered by billionaire Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

March's layoffs represent the third-highest monthly total ever recorded, Challenger said. The two previous highest monthly totals were recorded in April 2020 and May 2020, when more than 671,000 and 397,000 job cuts, respectively, were recorded, due to the pandemic shuttering the U.S. economy, according to its data.

Last month's cuts were led by losses in federal jobs, largely directed by DOGE, with more than 216,000 government employees fired from their jobs in March, Challenger said. While Musk has said he is rooting out waste and abuse, the steep job cuts to agencies such as the Social Security Administration and the IRS are causing delays in customer services for taxpayers, while also some other agencies are being entirely shuttered.

But I'm sure Harris would have been terrible too.

[Victoria Raverna]

Finally a Republican senator dare to openly oppose Trump's power to impose new taxes.

[hepcat]

Rand Paul's neighbor wants you to know he's laying off Rand after seeing that....for now.

[Holman]

Apparently Trump’s tariffs for each country aren’t actually based upon the tariffs they charge the U.S. but instead based upon the U.S. trade deficit with each country divided by imports.

And sometimes they're based on nothing at all, as his list includes some tariffs on literally uninhabited islands.

Apparently there are no tariffs on Russia, however.

[hepcat]

I looked up the Russia thing as I found that curious. It does appear that Russia is still under quite a few sanctions that restrict trade. There are other countries not on the tariff list that are also under sanctions, I believe.

Still, if Trump lifts some or even all of those sanctions in the coming months and does not apply tariffs, then we know it's time to start looking for the pee tape again.

[Smoove_B]

If only there existed some type of legislative body that actually had the power to simply vaporize all his nonsense tariffs by voting on something official. I guess we'll never know.

It's something at least-

https://apnews.com/article/congress-tar ... b81337e3ec

Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) just introduced a bill called the "Trade Review Act of 2025" that will require the President to submit to Congress a formal review of any increase or change in duty with justifications and it must be approved by Congress. If the President fails to do so, then the duty will expire in 60 days.

I guess we'll see how this goes.

[Holman]

If only there existed some type of legislative body that actually had the power to simply vaporize all his nonsense tariffs by voting on something official. I guess we'll never know.

It's something at least-

https://apnews.com/article/congress-tar ... b81337e3ec

Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) just introduced a bill called the "Trade Review Act of 2025" that will require the President to submit to Congress a formal review of any increase or change in duty with justifications and it must be approved by Congress. If the President fails to do so, then the duty will expire in 60 days.

I guess we'll see how this goes.

Why 60 days? Why not 72 hours?

[Smoove_B]

60 days does seem rather long, I agree. I would have thought 30 days at the most, myself. Not sure if it's part of the bi-partisan dance that's being done, but my guess is that it is.

[Pyperkub]

The other point I would make is where are all the workers for the return of manufacturing going to fine from? The U.S. already has historically low unemployment and as the population ages, it is going to get harder to find workers. This would sort of make sense if we weee experiencing high unemployment but we are not.

Another thing that has gone unnoted by many is that the U.S. specialization in areas other than manufacturing has been a benefit. The middle class has shrunk, but the movement has not been downward, but upward - the upper middle class has increased by the amount that the middle class has decreased. It is the Apples, Microsofts, Bank of America’s, etc that have benefited, and they pay more than factory jobs.

Lastly, US manufacturing actually has doubled in real terms since WW2 - but we do it with only 20% or so of the same number of workers. It is just a lower amount relative to GDP as the U.S. earns much more now from other areas.

Trump just fundamentally does not understand economics or international trade. We’ll see if he can get by violating the basic principles of economics. I’m betting he won’t.

Agreed, if manufacturing comes back to the US, it will be low worker, high automation manufacturing.

And, TBH, we do need some of this. But the intelligent way to do it was the CHIPS Act approach - targeted, with both a carrot and stick. The US has had a serious offshore semiconductor fab dependency for quite a while, and that is increasingly a National security issue, subject to multiple levels of international threats.

This approach is likely to actually increase those threats the longer this approach is pursued. As will the inevitable need to use our military to protect those assets. It's a huge reason why I've felt a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is probable. On the other hand, this approach appears to be driving our allies in South Korea and Japan directly into a relationship with China which will only further damage the US.

[LordMortis]

Any guess how long he is going to keep the tariffs before he is forced to cancel them?

They will be reduced or removed piecemeal, depending on other leaders' bribes. I expect that to begin immediately.

And publicly traded companies kissing the ring. Vietnam was hit hard. If you get a conglomerate for companies like Nike suddenly publicly endorsing and contributing to the Project 2025 agenda then victory will be declared and relief will happen.

I worked at Nike for 10 years. Nike is not going to kiss Trump’s ring. Not only is it way off brand, it’s also arguably antithetical to the company’s ethos.

It may not happen but that's what they want.

[IceBear]

You don't want tariffs on the X you make overseas? Sure, but let's talk about DEI in your company? Also, I wouldn't donate any money to my political rivals

[Smoove_B]

I worked at Nike for 10 years. Nike is not going to kiss Trump’s ring. Not only is it way off brand, it’s also arguably antithetical to the company’s ethos.

I know you want to believe this, but Nike has one god and that god is money. I have no doubts corporations are going to go through all kinds of "brand" gymnastics to do whatever they can to stay out of a target window.

Just like colleges and university that have already compromised their core values and mission over a fraction of their operation budget.

[LordMortis]

The reason I used Nike as example

UPDATE 6-Sneaker and apparel retailers blindsided by tariffs on Asian factory hubs
11:54:33 AM ET, 04/03/2025 - Reuters

*

Shares in sportswear, fast-fashion retailers slide

*

Garment manufacturing hubs hit with steep tariffs

*

Prices likely to rise, analysts say

(Updates shares throughout, adds link to Factbox on Asian production hubs in paragraph 14)

By Helen Reid and Aishwarya Venugopal

April 3 (Reuters) - Prices of Nike Jordan and Adidas Samba sneakers are likely to rise in the United States after President Donald Trump imposed a raft of new tariffs on key manufacturers of sportswear and apparel including Vietnam and Indonesia.

Top U.S. brands like Nike have spent years shifting away from Chinese factories as political tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated, but the new tariffs now threaten southeast Asian supplies of everything from tracksuits to high-tech running shoes.

Shares in Nike, Adidas and Puma dropped sharply after Vietnam was targeted with a 46% tariff rate, Cambodia with 49%, Bangladesh with 37% and Indonesia with 32%, while Trump hiked tariffs on China by an extra 34 percentage points, following the earlier 20% tariffs.

"Companies that worked hard over the years to reduce reliance on China by leaning into countries like Vietnam just learned there really isn't a place to hide," BMO Capital Markets analyst Simeon Siegel said.

Shares in fast-fashion retailer H&M, which sources mainly from China and Bangladesh, fell 5%, while stocks of U.S. retail giant Amazon and Target were down 8% and 10%, respectively.

Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman said brands like On Holding, whose $150 sneakers target wealthier shoppers, might more easily push prices up without impacting revenues.

"For everybody else, I think the mitigation strategy short term will be to try to renegotiate supplier and vendor contracts, so kind of share the pain up and down the value chain," she said.

The new tariffs would increase the average U.S. import tariff rate on apparel from 14.5% in 2024 to 30.6%, according to calculations by Sheng Lu, professor of fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware.

Based on 2024 import values, this would result in $26 billion in duties on apparel, more than double last year's level, Lu said.

Retailers may not be able to fully offset these tariffs, as countering the impact of the levies on Vietnam alone would require price increases of 10% to 12%, according to UBS analysts.

"With additional tariffs proposed across other key Asian sourcing hubs, the scenario of shifting production now looks far less viable, narrowing the set of effective mitigation levers available to brands," the UBS analysts added.

The International Apparel Federation, which represents garment manufacturers in 40 countries, called the tariffs a "major shock."

"Ultimately, someone will have to pay the price," the association said in a statement.

Nike produced half its footwear and roughly 30% of its apparel in Vietnam in its 2024 financial year, while Adidas relied on the Asian nation for 39% of its footwear and 18% of its apparel last year.

Shares of Nike dropped about 10% to their lowest since 2017 on Thursday, while Adidas tumbled 11% and Puma fell about 10%.

Rival sportswear makers, including Lululemon, Skechers, Under Armour, Deckers and On were down between 11% and 17%.

Nike and Adidas did not reply to requests for comment on the tariffs, while On said it was "constantly monitoring the evolving situation." Puma said it is evaluating the situation and "will react swiftly."

"Some companies might be able to change where they produce for the U.S. market, but that usually takes years, not days," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. "Prices may rise, consumers might balk, costs will increase. It’s not a pretty picture for profit margins."

(Reporting by Isabel Demetz, Helen Reid, Linda Pasquini, Ananya Mariam Rajesh and Aishwarya Venugopal; Editing by Amanda Cooper, Tomasz Janowski, Sriraj Kalluvila, Sharon Singleton and Mark Porter)

[Alefroth]

Saw a bluesky post today (can't find it now) where the theory was, he wants to tank the economy so when private business comes begging for help he can control them just like he's trying to control the courts and the universities. He'll get concessions from them like he got from Columbia university in order to further damage democracy.

For sure. He really wants to be the one to pick the winners.

[Hyena]

If only there existed some type of legislative body that actually had the power to simply vaporize all his nonsense tariffs by voting on something official. I guess we'll never know.

It's something at least-

https://apnews.com/article/congress-tar ... b81337e3ec

Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) just introduced a bill called the "Trade Review Act of 2025" that will require the President to submit to Congress a formal review of any increase or change in duty with justifications and it must be approved by Congress. If the President fails to do so, then the duty will expire in 60 days.

I guess we'll see how this goes.

Why 60 days? Why not 72 hours?

Do you have any IDEA how long it takes to demand, confirm, and collect millions of dollars in bribes? 72 hours isn't NEAR enough time...

[LordMortis]

Tariffs an excuse to bring jobs back to the US?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 025-04-03/

DETROIT, April 3 (Reuters) - Stellantis said on Thursday it was temporarily laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities after President Donald Trump's tariffs were announced, and temporarily pausing production at an assembly plant in Mexico and one in Canada.
The maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps said the U.S. plants affected are powertrain and stamping facilities that provide parts for the two factories in Mexico and Canada that are being idled. Stellantis shares were down 7.7% at $10.40 in New York trading at midday on Thursday, in line with a broad decline in U.S. stocks on fears of an all-out trade war.

Line this up next to all those US jobs Cleveland Cliffs are bringing back shedding.

[Alefroth]

A good thread by Senator Murphy on how too much spending power n the hands of the executive can be used to control the populace-

https://bsky.app/profile/chrismurphyct. ... uxkmx7wc2m

[Smoove_B]

I have no doubts that's exactly what's happening.

[LawBeefaroni]

Because they used Grok.to create the list and calculate tariffs and no one proofed any of it.

The "countries" are actually TLDs. So you get uninhabited islands (.hm) or military bases (.io). Gibraltar (.gi) has its own tariff despite being part of the UK.

These peole are so lazy and dumb, it defies belief. And we elected them.

[Rumpy]

Yeah, I was thinking, it's just a list made to look like a long list as long as the camera doesn't zoom in enough to read it.

[Roman]

Tariffs an excuse to bring jobs back to the US?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 025-04-03/

DETROIT, April 3 (Reuters) - Stellantis said on Thursday it was temporarily laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities after President Donald Trump's tariffs were announced, and temporarily pausing production at an assembly plant in Mexico and one in Canada.
The maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps said the U.S. plants affected are powertrain and stamping facilities that provide parts for the two factories in Mexico and Canada that are being idled. Stellantis shares were down 7.7% at $10.40 in New York trading at midday on Thursday, in line with a broad decline in U.S. stocks on fears of an all-out trade war.

Line this up next to all those US jobs Cleveland Cliffs are bringing back shedding.

love love love that the autoworker that Trump brought up on stage yesterday was cheering the upcoming tariffs and the jobs that would come back to the US... what an asshat.