Trumponomics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

[Jeff V]

love love love that the autoworker that Trump brought up on stage yesterday was cheering the upcoming tariffs and the jobs that would come back to the US... what an asshat.

We can only hope he's the first to get laid off.

My car is not an American car. It has 166,000 miles on it, the only thing aside from routine maintenance that has been replaced are the tires. My mechanic did say it's about time I replace my rear brakes, though (which will come with a lifetime warranty).

No American car I ever owned has made it to 100K, period. There are reports of the car I drive making it to 700K without considerable expense, although 300-400K is considered a little more normal (and would get me to the point where it's paid off). 500K would probably get me through the next presidential election.

[msduncan]

love love love that the autoworker that Trump brought up on stage yesterday was cheering the upcoming tariffs and the jobs that would come back to the US... what an asshat.

We can only hope he's the first to get laid off.

My car is not an American car. It has 166,000 miles on it, the only thing aside from routine maintenance that has been replaced are the tires. My mechanic did say it's about time I replace my rear brakes, though (which will come with a lifetime warranty).

No American car I ever owned has made it to 100K, period. There are reports of the car I drive making it to 700K without considerable expense, although 300-400K is considered a little more normal (and would get me to the point where it's paid off). 500K would probably get me through the next presidential election.

From what I've read, the American autoworkers unions are completely behind him.

Edit to add: And yeah..I haven't bought American in YEARS. I'm almost exclusively Toyota now.

[Holman]

I just don't understand Trump's theory that tariffs will somehow bring back American manufacturing. I am not an economist but...

1) Won't it take quite a long time to (re)build manufacturing infrastructure in the US? Industrial-scale factories take years to build, and the capital behind them has to be certain that they will be long-term and profitable.

2) The reason so many jobs have been moved overseas (by their corporate owners, not by foreigners "stealing" them) is that many foreign workers are willing to accept wages lower than Americans would tolerate. How could neo-domestic manufacturing function without massive price hikes if Americans won't take the jobs without reasonable wages?

3) If the scheme is actually successful, and imports are replaced by domestic production, doesn't that mean that tariffs eventually dwindle to nothing? Aren't tariffs as a revenue source essentially self-evaporating? What happens then?

I think I do know the answer to these questions. How hard would it be for the media to actually get this news out there?

[Jeff V]

Edit to add: And yeah..I haven't bought American in YEARS. I'm almost exclusively Toyota now.

The car I described happens to be Toyota. It's a hybrid, my wife has a Toyota ICE Highlander and that's required very little maintenance in the 40K miles she put on it.

[Zarathud]

1) Yes. Manufacturers need a lot of time to build a plant. This is not a policy that can be implemented by fiat without broad political support.
2) Yes, you end up with permanently inflated prices due to protecting inefficient US jobs. That there may still not be enough U.S. workers willing or able to work these jobs.
3) Yes, if they’re successful then no one pays. Eventually the revenue drops to zero or the policy fails to bring back jobs. But it’s mainly intended to justify passing a massive tax giveaway — and force companies to pay/grovel for an exception.

[Jeff V]

I think I do know the answer to these questions. How hard would it be for the media to actually get this news out there?

More importantly, why are the donkeys so incompetent when it comes to getting this message out there?

You are absolutely correct, bringing manufacturing back here will take years, and the end result will not be cheaper cars for anyone, instead, you'll have crappier cars at a higher price point because there's no cheap labor to be had here. Industry in general is not going to invest in decades-long projects to fully onshore manufacturing, when they know in a few years there'll be a comeuppance and many of these policies will be overturned. The result is a recession or depression that will last until the adults resume control of things.

[Alefroth]

I just don't understand Trump's theory that tariffs will somehow bring back American manufacturing. I am not an economist but...

1) Won't it take quite a long time to (re)build manufacturing infrastructure in the US? Industrial-scale factories take years to build, and the capital behind them has to be certain that they will be long-term and profitable.

Building factories will now be a lot more expensive.

[Zarathud]

That’s why there needs to be a political consensus (rather than “me first”) to make it work. You need people willing to deal with the pain, think through a plan to get a good result, and problem solve in advance.

Trump is not the leader who can do ANY PART of what he’s trying. He’s trying to force others to act against their self-interest, and will blame them when it doesn’t work out. Nowhere in his first term or the Apprentice did Trump show the necessary skills.

It’s the newest version of “build the wall” or “new health care plan.” It’s shadow puppets.

[Victoria Raverna]

How Trump administration calculated "unfair tariffs" from other countries against US:

[Rumpy]

I think I do know the answer to these questions. How hard would it be for the media to actually get this news out there?

More importantly, why are the donkeys so incompetent when it comes to getting this message out there?

You are absolutely correct, bringing manufacturing back here will take years, and the end result will not be cheaper cars for anyone, instead, you'll have crappier cars at a higher price point because there's no cheap labor to be had here. Industry in general is not going to invest in decades-long projects to fully onshore manufacturing, when they know in a few years there'll be a comeuppance and many of these policies will be overturned. The result is a recession or depression that will last until the adults resume control of things.

Yeah, possibly a decade or more. There's also the labor force that need to be properly trained.

[Victoria Raverna]

With the way that Trump set tariffs then cancel/postpone them repeatedly. How can investors be sure that Trump isn't going to cancel it again like in a few days or months?

Why would they invest to move manufacturing to US when Trump can suddenly change his mind and remove the tariffs and make it is not competitive to manufacture in US?

[Lagom Lite]

I just don't understand Trump's theory that tariffs will somehow bring back American manufacturing. I am not an economist but...

1) Won't it take quite a long time to (re)build manufacturing infrastructure in the US? Industrial-scale factories take years to build, and the capital behind them has to be certain that they will be long-term and profitable.

2) The reason so many jobs have been moved overseas (by their corporate owners, not by foreigners "stealing" them) is that many foreign workers are willing to accept wages lower than Americans would tolerate. How could neo-domestic manufacturing function without massive price hikes if Americans won't take the jobs without reasonable wages?

3) If the scheme is actually successful, and imports are replaced by domestic production, doesn't that mean that tariffs eventually dwindle to nothing? Aren't tariffs as a revenue source essentially self-evaporating? What happens then?

I think I do know the answer to these questions. How hard would it be for the media to actually get this news out there?

The current tariffs as imposed by the Trump administration indeed make little sense. That's not to say tariffs and protectionism is always a bad idea, and there is a kernel of truth as to how the effects of free trade have been devastating to industrial towns throughout the western world. Britain, for example, though it applies to many european countries, to this day have many former industrial towns who still haven't been able to shift their economy away from industry into services or other sectors, and are stuck with low income, low education and high unemployment. There radicalism grows.

1. If there are empty factories, mills and the like that could become profitable in the short term if only they could find domestic buyers, targeted tariffs could make sense. George W Bush tried to impose 25% steel tariffs to boost domestic steel production, but was met with reciprocal tariffs from EU among other places and rescinded them. These jobs would be low-paying and would probably be a detriment to the overall US economy (as steel prices would increase, risking inflation) but might boost local economies of poor and struggling communities in the rust belt. As it is, many working-class folks in Europe as well as US feel left behind by globalist free trade, and rightly so, so it's not as irrational as it may seem for them to cheer for targeted tariffs.

But the way in which Trump is going about it, slapping general tariffs to try to bully trade partners is all wrong. If anything, he should have approached the international community with humility, saying "we have struggling working-class communities in America whom we want to support, which is why we're imposing targeted tariffs on steel in order to support those who want to open closed steel mills in Michigan. How can we cooperate with you, our beautiful allies in the EU, to minimize the damaging effects these tariffs will have on our shared economies?" and work out some kind deal. That might even have worked to the degree where EU countries started to talk about the negative effects free trade has had on struggling European communities, and leaders may even have begun to follow American leadership in this endeavour. It's a wasted opportunity, and it's a real shame because there are real issues with international capitalism and free trade the way it's set up currently.

2. Yes, the prices of those products would increase, risking inflation. Compared to Europe, consumer goods are relatively cheap in the US compared to average purchasing power, while public services are overpriced (healthcare and education). If consumer goods increase in price, which they will with these general Trump tariffs, US economy will take a massive hit.

But tell that to the steel workers who were laid off and can't find a new job.

3. Yes, and that's if the tariffs are successful. You shouldn't do tariffs to generate revenue per se, it's functionally a subsidy (a cost, an investment risk of sort).

[msduncan]

I feel like I'm living in some bizzarro world where

1. Democrats are more inclined to assist militarily/extend power (Ukraine) and Republicans are suddenly isolationists
2. Republicans are garnering favor of auto unions (though Democrats never went to extreme measures to garner it)
and if you want to get REAL old school from when I was young:
3. Democrats are anti-Russia and Republicans are pro/sympathetic

Did Earth slip through a small black hole into a parallel universe while nobody was paying attention?

[Smoove_B]

Did Earth slip through a small black hole into a parallel universe while nobody was paying attention?

Once you recognize the racist and religious connections shared between the U.S. and Russia, it will make more sense.

And oddly enough, both of those cross the political spectrum so hello Trump.

[LawBeefaroni]

Make America Great Depression Again.

MAGDA.

[Roman]

His goal is to give Russia a destroyed America. Everything he does is in line with that. It wont stop.

[ImLawBoy]

I feel like I'm living in some bizzarro world where

1. Democrats are more inclined to assist militarily/extend power (Ukraine) and Republicans are suddenly isolationists

The libertarian wing of the right has always been isolationist (oddly, that was one of my big areas of disagreement with them when I considered myself a small l libertarian). That said, the current R isn't above saber rattling with respect to Canada and Greenland. I don't think it's likely they'll follow through on the threats, but they are there whether explicitly or implicitly. I think a big distinction between current D militarism (if you want to call it that, and I'm not sure it's an apt title) and the former R militarism is that, for the Ds, the big example (Ukraine) is a case of assisting an ally who was attacked without provocation by one of our mutual foes. Prior R exercise of military power was often cold war proxy fighting against communist countries (through the 80s) and then the whole middle east morass after that.

2. Republicans are garnering favor of auto unions (though Democrats never went to extreme measures to garner it)

I think it's fair to say that the Ds became complacent about union support, but not that they never did much to get it. In fact, Biden might be one of the country's most pro-union presidents in history. The interesting aspect here is that the union members seem to voting against their own economic interest in favor of culture war issues.

and if you want to get REAL old school from when I was young:
3. Democrats are anti-Russia and Republicans are pro/sympathetic

I think you're letting your old biases show. The Ds were never really pro-USSR except in the fever dreams of the right.

[msduncan]

I think you're letting your old biases show. The Ds were never really pro-USSR except in the fever dreams of the right.

Almost ancient biases now. That was back in the 1980s when we used phones attached to the wall with cords.

[Isgrimnur]

If anything, he should have approached the international community with humility,

[$iljanus]

I think you're letting your old biases show. The Ds were never really pro-USSR except in the fever dreams of the right.

Almost ancient biases now. That was back in the 1980s when we used phones attached to the wall with cords.

And cassette tapes!

[msduncan]

I think you're letting your old biases show. The Ds were never really pro-USSR except in the fever dreams of the right.

Almost ancient biases now. That was back in the 1980s when we used phones attached to the wall with cords.

And cassette tapes!

I do miss mix tapes. Playlists don't seem to have the same mental effect. Maybe it was the effort of putting a mix tape together that was the magic.

[Blackhawk]

I think a big distinction between current D militarism (if you want to call it that, and I'm not sure it's an apt title)

I'd call it a strong sense of responsibility (to allies, to friends, and to people in general.)

[$iljanus]

I think you're letting your old biases show. The Ds were never really pro-USSR except in the fever dreams of the right.

Almost ancient biases now. That was back in the 1980s when we used phones attached to the wall with cords.

And cassette tapes!

I do miss mix tapes. Playlists don't seem to have the same mental effect. Maybe it was the effort of putting a mix tape together that was the magic.

Me too. A good buddy and I have a running playlist on Spotify where we alternate adding songs. Some are from our misspent youth, some are classics and even classical, others are some of today’s stuff which keeps us current on what the kids like today. It’s almost like a mixtape but as you say, there’s a lot of thought that goes into a mixtape that was the appeal.

[stessier]

I think you're letting your old biases show. The Ds were never really pro-USSR except in the fever dreams of the right.

Almost ancient biases now. That was back in the 1980s when we used phones attached to the wall with cords.

And cassette tapes!

I do miss mix tapes. Playlists don't seem to have the same mental effect. Maybe it was the effort of putting a mix tape together that was the magic.

Me too. A good buddy and I have a running playlist on Spotify where we alternate adding songs. Some are from our misspent youth, some are classics and even classical, others are some of today’s stuff which keeps us current on what the kids like today. It’s almost like a mixtape but as you say, there’s a lot of thought that goes into a mixtape that was the appeal.

It wasn't even just the thought - it was the effort. Dual cassette recordings is way more difficult than drag and dropping a file.

[Rumpy]

With the way that Trump set tariffs then cancel/postpone them repeatedly. How can investors be sure that Trump isn't going to cancel it again like in a few days or months?

Why would they invest to move manufacturing to US when Trump can suddenly change his mind and remove the tariffs and make it is not competitive to manufacture in US?

Exactly. Moving would be terribly expensive for the companies that invested millions to build their factories, and not too mention incredibly disruptive to the industry that built up around those factories, to the local economy and the workers they employ. I just heard the auto manufacturers in Canada want to stay in Canada. So bully for Trump, manufacturers are not having any of it. The auto sector is raising its middle finger to Trump's plan.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article ... -minister/

As U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25 per cent tariff on global auto imports takes effect, Canada’s industry minister says she has received assurances auto companies in this country won’t move their business elsewhere.

Speaking to CTV News chief political correspondent Vassy Kapelos in an interview on CTV’s Power Play Thursday, Anita Anand says she spoke to auto companies, and “every one of them” have indicated they do intend to stay in Canada.

“They do intend to produce in Canada, and that they want to work with the Government of Canada to ensure that that continues to be possible,” Anand said.

Trump has been explicit in trying to justify auto tariffs by saying he wants to move the sector from Canada and other countries back to the U.S. Anand said her conversations with auto companies were about “ensuring that the auto manufacturers know that the Canadian government will be there for them to continue to develop, manufacture and invest in Canada.”

“We have agreements in place with the auto manufacturers. That’s our Strategic Investment Fund, and we will continue to ensure that we come forward to maintain a healthy and vibrant auto manufacturing sector,” she told Kapelos.

Anand also said the government would be creating a “remission framework” that will offer relief for auto manufacturers as long as they continue their business in Canada.

[LordMortis]

Turned on CNBC out of curiosity. Carl is talking S&P 4800 and retirement savings concerns. Which of course is my concern.

When they said this yesterday, I was thinking in the months ahead, not days. We touched below 5100 today which opens up further trends down without impending tariffs and the news and retaliation that follows. The hedge fund managers in on the fix are loving life. In one day with the resistance point hitting below 5100, now the talking heads are revising to 4200. That's off a high of over 6000 before the election artificial bump that the right was crowing about.

With inflation coming at every direction at least there is that stable employment opportunity.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/doge-jo ... 18469.html

The number of announced layoffs in March increased 60% month over month, according to a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Federal layoffs made up almost 80% of these cuts.

Andy Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., joins Wealth to discuss how the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is impacting the labor market.

Next up will be cornering the Fed in to interest rate cuts, I'm sure. The GOP love their "It's not QE" that will follow. This will happen as our international partners are looking for ways to rely less on "the stability" of the USD.


But go ahead and insist literally everyone who knows anything about tariffs and studied their effect over the last 250 years that they don't understand how they work, you fucking idiotic stooge.

[Alefroth]

Is this the trade war to end all trade wars?

[LawBeefaroni]

Is this the trade war to end all trade wars?

Turmoil has engulfed the Galactic Republic. The taxation of trade routes to outlying star systems is in dispute...

[Alefroth]

duh duh duh DUN DA DUN, DUN DA DUN

[$iljanus]

I think you're letting your old biases show. The Ds were never really pro-USSR except in the fever dreams of the right.

Almost ancient biases now. That was back in the 1980s when we used phones attached to the wall with cords.

And cassette tapes!

I do miss mix tapes. Playlists don't seem to have the same mental effect. Maybe it was the effort of putting a mix tape together that was the magic.

Me too. A good buddy and I have a running playlist on Spotify where we alternate adding songs. Some are from our misspent youth, some are classics and even classical, others are some of today’s stuff which keeps us current on what the kids like today. It’s almost like a mixtape but as you say, there’s a lot of thought that goes into a mixtape that was the appeal.

It wasn't even just the thought - it was the effort. Dual cassette recordings is way more difficult than drag and dropping a file.

And there's the thrill of the hunt when tracking down music vs now where it's just a click away. Going to St. Marks records or back when Tower Records was awesome was like a fun treasure hunt. Or taping a U2 concert off of a WLIR simulcast. Good times.

[Smoove_B]

Missed this yesterday in the the chaos; maybe I will be buying a new computer now:

President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs have rocked the stock market since being announced on Tuesday, with just about every major tech company down double-digits. Semiconductors were largely spared from an immediate impact, however, as chips from Taiwan and other nations were exempted. Most electronics sold in the United States are powered by chips made in Asia, meaning tariffs would have a significant impact on prices. But Trump told a White House press pool on Thursday that tariffs on semiconductors will be imposed “very soon.”

[LawBeefaroni]

And there's the thrill of the hunt when tracking down music vs now where it's just a click away. Going to St. Marks records or back when Tower Records was awesome was like a fun treasure hunt. Or taping a U2 concert off of a WLIR simulcast. Good times.

I go to the record store around once a month and find some gems. I also scroll Bandcamp regularly to find new [or new to me] music.

[msduncan]

I have to chuckle a little...

My buddy who has his own business just posted that prices for what he sells are about to go up 20%. He's been a huge Trump supporter. Now these tariffs are about to hit his business HARD. I don't wish him ill-will with his business, but it does make me chuckle a tiny bit.

[hepcat]

You're only human. I can't say I wouldn't feel the same.

Trump is digging in his heels this afternoon and doubling down. I have to wonder if all town hall meetings with Trump supporting republican representatives will be cancelled indefinitely.

[stessier]

Trump is telling the Fed to cut interest rates and stop playing politics. I always have trouble understanding interest rates - wouldn't cutting them be inflationary? And tariffs are inflationary. So how would cutting rates help? Wouldn't it actually compound the pain?

[Smoove_B]

It helps if you stop trying to use logic and reason to puzzle out what's happening.

Instead, ask who benefits when interest rates are cut?

[msduncan]

It helps if you stop trying to use logic and reason to puzzle out what's happening.

Instead, ask who benefits when interest rates are cut?

There is a simple solution to all of this. Executive orders that order businesses to lower prices!

[geezer]

Make America Great Depression Again.

MAGDA.

Sounds Russian

[LordMortis]

Trump is telling the Fed to cut interest rates and stop playing politics.

Of course he is. Cutting rates has always been friends to his friends. One might think that he'd go so far as damaging the economy to keep cheap or free money flowing to the right wealthy people. Remember his the Fed needs to keep rates at 0 his first term and "It's not QE"

[Alefroth]

Trump is telling the Fed to cut interest rates and stop playing politics. I always have trouble understanding interest rates - wouldn't cutting them be inflationary? And tariffs are inflationary. So how would cutting rates help? Wouldn't it actually compound the pain?

We're probably entering a period of stagflation, and rates aren't a tool that can be used to counter that. So of course Trump would demand it.