IceBear wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 3:30 pm
That's why there's belief that April 20th he's going to impose martial law. He declared an emergency on Jan 20th at the southern border and asked for it to be "studied" and a report given in 90 days. He and Vance went down there a few weeks ago for a photo op. There's speculation that the report will find that he'll need to invoke some act (can't remember the name now) so he can impose martial law and lock down any protesting. Probably why he already cleared out the JAG and anyone with a conscience in the military where he could
It's still astonishing to me that, AFAIK, no reporter or interviewer has simply asked, "Mr. President, would you explain to the American people how tariffs work?"
Yes, his answer will be wrong (he'll claim "now the Chinese government has to pay the US to sell Chinese stuff here"), but it would be good to get it on tape.
As glad as I am to watch my stocks reinflate, nothing fundamental has changed. Uncertainty has been extended for 90 more days, during which businesses can't plan or invest. Best case, the market regains most of its losses while the economy goes on hold for three months.
IceBear wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 3:30 pm
That's why there's belief that April 20th he's going to impose martial law. He declared an emergency on Jan 20th at the southern border and asked for it to be "studied" and a report given in 90 days. He and Vance went down there a few weeks ago for a photo op. There's speculation that the report will find that he'll need to invoke some act (can't remember the name now) so he can impose martial law and lock down any protesting. Probably why he already cleared out the JAG and anyone with a conscience in the military where he could
I am not piling on here but didn't you express stress/anxiety from all the BS that Trump is causing for us here in Canada/Globally? Get off the social media blackhole man for the sake of your mental health.
When you say things like 'there's belief that....martial law....' you sound more like Trump does with his 'everyone is saying' bullshit.
While feeding all the beasties out back I let a nice big fart. The smell followed all the way back to the house. It's like it was my baby and felt abandoned.
The Constitution makes no provision for martial law -- military rule. Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act to station troops in US cities. That occupation government would feel like martial law, but the generals won't be in charge without staging an outright coup. And right now a military coup sounds kinda tempting compared to four years of capricious oppression and decline, but if we do go there the USA is over and done with.
Kraken wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 4:08 pm
The Constitution makes no provision for martial law -- military rule. Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act to station troops in US cities. That occupation government would feel like martial law, but the generals won't be in charge without staging an outright coup. And right now a military coup sounds kinda tempting compared to four years of capricious oppression and decline, but if we do go there the USA is over and done with.
When Donald Trump starts messing with the money of the billionaires, as I said, around 20% loss expect impeachment and removal.
IceBear wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 3:30 pm
That's why there's belief that April 20th he's going to impose martial law. He declared an emergency on Jan 20th at the southern border and asked for it to be "studied" and a report given in 90 days. He and Vance went down there a few weeks ago for a photo op. There's speculation that the report will find that he'll need to invoke some act (can't remember the name now) so he can impose martial law and lock down any protesting. Probably why he already cleared out the JAG and anyone with a conscience in the military where he could
I am not piling on here but didn't you express stress/anxiety from all the BS that Trump is causing for us here in Canada/Globally? Get off the social media blackhole man for the sake of your mental health.
When you say things like 'there's belief that....martial law....' you sound more like Trump does with his 'everyone is saying' bullshit.
It's not coming totally out of nowhere.
Trump's day-one executive order declaring a national emergency at the southern border included this paragraph:
Trump wrote:Within 90 days of the date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall submit a joint report to the President about the conditions at the southern border of the United States and any recommendations regarding additional actions that may be necessary to obtain complete operational control of the southern border, including whether to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807.
SecDef Pete Hegseth and Homeland Security's Kristi Noem are far-right MAGA true believers who were chosen precisely because they do think Trump should use the military, so there's little question about what their "report" will suggest. The question is what Trump will do with it.
This would not mean Martial Law as such, but the Insurrection Act is dangerously vague and puts few boundaries around how the military can be used domestically.
Kraken wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 4:08 pm
The Constitution makes no provision for martial law -- military rule. Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act to station troops in US cities. That occupation government would feel like martial law, but the generals won't be in charge without staging an outright coup. And right now a military coup sounds kinda tempting compared to four years of capricious oppression and decline, but if we do go there the USA is over and done with.
That's the one, and I'm sure it was speculated on by a Democrat in Congress...only reason I gave it any credence
CNBC just played a clip with the president saying he may not do a pause for 90 days (here after close of the market) (Lutnick is now on and any reasonable person would say he's embarrassing himself but we're not reasonable people)
Confidence in the US economy is plummeting as investors dumped government debt amid growing concerns over the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs.
Governments sell bonds - essentially an IOU - to raise money from financial markets for public spending and in return they pay interest.
The US does not normally see high interest rates on its debt as its bonds are viewed as a safe investment, but on Wednesday rates spiked sharply to touch 4.5%.
The rise came after Trump pressed ahead with sweeping tariffs on goods being imported into the US, while Washington's trade war with China escalated further - although Trump on Wednesday did put a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for some countries.
When I was about four or five, some older kids (early or mid teens) pushed me an my friend into a mud-filled ditch that was too steep to climb out of. They'd then reach down their hands and offer to pull us out, only to drop us back in halfway up. They repeated this several times, us caked in thick mud, screaming, and terrified. By that point we learned not to trust them, that their behavior was unreliable, and stopped and just sat in the mud.
Trump seems to think that he can keep pulling the rug partway out, pushing it back, and pulling it out again. People are going to start treating the rug like it's been pulled out all of the time, because they can't take steps to address a situation that keeps changing. They have to pick a 'rug state' and go with it - and they're not going to decide in a way that benefits the US and sets them up to be tossed into the ditch yet again.
Negotiate with Trump and expect to get burned. He’s unreliable and has always been unreliable in business deals. He takes advantage of people wanting to make money with him.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Let’s just say I had a few cases with attorneys previously involved in Trump business deals.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Brian wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 10:37 am
You know he's not talking to regular people here. He doesn't give a fuck about them.
And overwhelmingly it's the regular people that (1) voted for him and (2) hang on his every word. Kinda weird, right?
Yeah, I have been baffled from the beginning and continue to be so.
Trump's first political spark was to promote himself (as a business master and tough guy) specifically to disaffected working class whites who have suffered from economic globalization. His political *genius* was not to address their economic concerns but to exploit their sense of victimization in order to ride their resentments straight to the White House.
He was the first modern Republican to openly hate the people they (mistakenly) hate. That's literally all it took. No real solutions required!
Trump cultivated a “Rich man of the people” schtick through the eightys and spent a lot of time on the radio. Art of the Deal was all about creating a fake image for sales. Same by forcing himself into Home Alone Two
Watch him on Conan or Howard Steen and you’ll see the genesis of Trump’s persona.
Last edited by Zarathud on Wed Apr 09, 2025 7:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
So in the end, Trump punished countries that US has surplus with since he postponed the tariffs by reducing them to 10% but doesn't reduce the tariffs for those that has US has surplus with.
I saw comments elsewhere there was something going on with the bond markets the last two days and that maybe Japan saved us all:
Gasparino said that the administration ultimately pulled back because of threats that Japan — which he said runs " major money management firms that are involved in the bond market" — was contemplating dumping some of its estimated $1.26 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities. Gasparino said Japan "forced [the administration's] hands" with the move, and said that he was told Japan now believed the United States bond market "was not a great place to do business."
"He had no choice," Gasparino added. "The gun was at his head. It was very bad."
Essentially, U.S. Treasury securities — which make up the vast bulk of the $36 trillion national debt — are the primary way in which institutional investors and foreign governments choose to park their money. While the FDIC only guarantees bank deposits up to $250,000, U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. But if a major buyer of treasuries decided to dump their holdings, it could potentially trigger a sell-off throughout the rest of the bond market, causing a global financial crisis.
That would make sense. If Trump wants to play international finance and mess with the international economic system, his team is woefully unprepared and unqualified.
Other nations have power because they don’t have to do business with the U.S. and can threaten to call our debts and return U.S. dollars. The U.S. has greatly benefitted from the stability and sanity of the U.S. economy — and Trump’s tariffs threaten that beacon of economic stability and opportunity.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Indeed. Apparently Japan is the #1 holder (1.1 trillion) and China is #2 (770 billion). Japan took the #1 spot in December of 2023 and I'm thinking now it was insurance.
I have to wonder for all the spokespeople championing bringing (non union especially) manufacturing jobs to "America", how many have worked in manufacturing? How many have made a non union manufacturing wage. How much new factory 21st century manufacturing will be done by advancements in automation and robotics, wherein the jobs created will actually be a skeleton crew of production and logistics automation maintenance operators?
The "pause" really means increasing the China tariff to 145% (no, seriously) and maintaining a 10% tariff on everyone else.
He's an unpredictable chaos agent that still doesn't seem to grasp just how much stuff the U.S. gets from China. If anything, the markets haven't even begun to adequately respond to his insanity.
Look, Trump seems to genuinely believe that the U.S. should have a trade surplus with literally every other country on the planet, and relatedly that importing more than one is exporting (from anyone!) is a loss for the U.S. There's no way this ends well.
Just you watch, Elon will likely have a solution by buying up a company that will offer production industries automation, which wouldn't be a conflict of interest at all. No sir.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 10, 2025 8:18 pm
Look, Trump seems to genuinely believe that the U.S. should have a trade surplus with literally every other country on the planet, and relatedly that importing more than one is exporting (from anyone!) is a loss for the U.S. There's no way this ends well.
Trump has spent his whole business career simply refusing to pay for things. In his mind, if we're paying for things, we're being ripped off.
El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 10, 2025 8:18 pm
Look, Trump seems to genuinely believe that the U.S. should have a trade surplus with literally every other country on the planet, and relatedly that importing more than one is exporting (from anyone!) is a loss for the U.S. There's no way this ends well.
We have a trade surplus with Australia and that didn't protect them from tariffs.
YellowKing wrote: Thu Apr 10, 2025 8:08 pm
Yeah we are still f-ing around. We won't be finding out until we're plunging into recession later this year.
He's also going to find out that China has a much higher pain tolerance than America does. I don't *want* to side with China or watch my accounts evaporate, but I'm glad they're standing up to the world's superbully.
In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.
At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.
Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.
"What? What?What?" -- The 14th Doctor
It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.
At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.
Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.
In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.
At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.
Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.
It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.
And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "“I like taking the guns early...to go to court would have taken a long time. So you could do exactly what you’re saying, but take the guns first, go through due process second.” -President Donald Trump. "...To guard, protect, and maintain his liberty, the freedman should have the ballot; that the liberties of the American people were dependent upon the Ballot-box, the Jury-box, and the Cartridge-box, that without these no class of people could live and flourish in this country." - Frederick Douglass MYT
In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.
At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.
Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.
It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.
And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.
Where's all the money supposed to go? Every other country on earth is dependent on the US in one way or another. What other avenues of safety are there? Australia is the prettiest pig in that poke.
