Trumponomics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

[LawBeefaroni]

It's been suggested that the bond market activity is what spurred the tariff "pause".

What just happened in the US Treasury market?

In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.

At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.

Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.

It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.

And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.

Where's all the money supposed to go? Every other country on earth is dependent on the US in one way or another. What other avenues of safety are there? Australia is the prettiest pig in that poke.

Asian bonds are getting interest. But it doesn't have to go to sovereign debt. Gold is up. BTC is back to $83.3K

[Drazzil]

It's been suggested that the bond market activity is what spurred the tariff "pause".

What just happened in the US Treasury market?

In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.

At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.

Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.

It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.

And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.

Where's all the money supposed to go? Every other country on earth is dependent on the US in one way or another. What other avenues of safety are there? Australia is the prettiest pig in that poke.

Asian bonds are getting interest. But it doesn't have to go to sovereign debt. Gold is up. BTC is back to $83.3K

Yeaaahhhh. Gold is INSANE right now. I wish it would go down to 250 dollars an oz again. I would be so happy. I could afford it.

[LordMortis]

It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.

And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.

Who could have seen this coming?

Also, how trustworthy is new republic? According to them, servicing our debt is more expensive for zero actual revenue because breaking shit is without a plan or investment in fixing it is what we do now. When FA and FO are in the state of being concurrent

https://newrepublic.com/post/193930/por ... ffs-glitch

Thanks to a technical glitch, Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t even been collected at U.S. ports.

On Friday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that an entry code in the U.S. system for American ships to use to have their freight exempted from tariffs isn’t working, and “the issue is being reviewed.” As a result, no tariffs are being collected by the U.S. government for the time being.

U.S. shippers told the news outlet that they have not been charged higher tariff rates on their containers as recently as Thursday, despite Trump’s claims that tariffs are in effect and are being collected. This latest snafu is on top of the fact that many companies and industry groups are still unsure of when tariffs will be collected, especially since Trump keeps changing the rates erratically in social media posts and executive orders, and making new threats almost daily.

“There has been some confusion on what President Trump has said in social media posts on when the tariff starts and what is written in the executive order,” Jarred Varanelli, vice president of U.S. sales at logistics firm Savino Del Bene, told CNBC. “Social media posts are not law on the pause and increase in tariffs. With the constant changes to the regulations, all customs brokers in our industry have a difficult task ahead of them.”

[LawBeefaroni]

"Move fast, break things."

[Max Peck]

Also, how trustworthy is new republic? According to them, servicing our debt is more expensive for zero actual revenue because breaking shit is without a plan or investment in fixing it is what we do now.

Other sources are also reporting that the tariff collection is delayed, so the story seems to check out.

In other Buried On Friday Night News, Trump blinks again...

Trump carves out massive exemptions from reciprocal tariffs, including smartphones, chips and computers

In a notice published late Friday night, US Customs and Border Protection issued new guidance on President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, listing several exemptions like smartphones, computers, chips and other electronics. That carves out a massive hole from his virtually prohibitive 145% tariff on China and comes after Beijing hiked its own duties on US imports but said no further retaliation would come.

President Donald Trump threw the global economy for another loop by carving out massive exemptions from his tariffs, including popular electronics like smartphones.

In a notice published late Friday night, US Customs and Border Protection issued new guidance on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, which were announced just a week and a half ago and then saw a 90-day pause on most countries but additional hikes on China to a prohibitive 145%.

The exemptions includes smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, memory cards and solid-state drives for data storage.

[Smoove_B]

Apple and Nvidia benefit from this? You don't say. It's too bad Zuckerberg isn't in the chip business, though I'm sure his carve outs are coming somehow.

[Zarathud]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

[msduncan]

World champion gamer Elon needed a new video card.

[Max Peck]

It's too bad Zuckerberg isn't in the chip business, though I'm sure his carve outs are coming somehow.

Not if Leon has any say in the matter.

[Rumpy]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

Worst Santa Ever!

[Chraolic]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

Worst Santa Ever!

I had never even heard of a Secret Satan before all this.

[Rumpy]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

Worst Santa Ever!

I had never even heard of a Secret Satan before all this.

Heh, that is one title that has definitely been earned.

[LawBeefaroni]

Apple and Nvidia benefit from this? You don't say. It's too bad Zuckerberg isn't in the chip business, though I'm sure his carve outs are coming somehow.

This was a guest on CNBC on Thursday:

I hope Tim [Cook] and Donald [Trunp] are talking. Maybe Tim has to invest [with Trump] to get an exemption....

This shit is right out in the open now.

Is Elizabeth Warren teeing up on these fat ass four-seamers right over the plate?

[Victoria Raverna]

Trump administration backs off Nvidia's H20 chip crackdown after Mar-a-Lago dinner, NPR reports.

Nvidia know how to bribe Trump.

[hepcat]

Trump is backing away from atuff faster than me at an Eyes Wide Shut Party in a retirement home. I honestly think there’s a small chance this undoes his presidency. He is already sinking fast in polls.

[Max Peck]

Maybe a shooting war in the Middle East will distract people from the economy.

[hepcat]

He’ll get on that after he gets done mugging for cameras at a UFC fight tonight.

edit: SNL actually made me chuckle with this week's bit on the economy.

[Max Peck]

But wait, there's more!

Trump plans separate tariff on electronics from China after initially exempting them, says Lutnick

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that smartphones, computers and some other electronics, just exempted from steep tariffs on imports from China, would face separate new duties along with semiconductors within the next two months.

Lutnick's comments on ABC's This Week flagging the coming levies on critical technology products mark the latest twist in President Donald Trump's tariff plans, which have upended the global trading order and roiled financial markets since they were announced on what he branded "Liberation Day" on April 2.

Late on Friday, the Trump administration granted exclusions from the steep tariffs on smartphones and a set of other electronics products, a move seen as a big break for technology firms such as Apple and Dell Technologies that rely on imports from China.

Lutnick said Trump would enact "a special focus-type of tariff" on smartphones, computers and other electronics products in a month or two, alongside sectoral tariffs targeting semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. He said those new levies would fall outside Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs, under which levies on Chinese imports climbed to 125 per cent this week.

The Trump administration says it will exclude electronics such as smartphones and laptops from latest tariffs. That means such devices and their components won't be subject to the current 145 per cent tariffs levied on China, or the 10 per cent baseline tariffs elsewhere.

"He's saying they're exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, but they're included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two," Lutnick said in the interview on ABC, predicting that the levies would bring production of those products to the United States.

"These are things that are national security, that we need to be made in America," Lutnick said.

With his comments, Lutnick appeared to go beyond what was communicated on Saturday, when a White House official told media that Trump would launch a new national security trade investigation into semiconductors soon that could lead to other new tariffs.

[Grifman]

They have no clue what they are doing.

[Blackhawk]

I bet the Chinese factories are going to be busy as all of the US tech companies try to stockpile stock before the new tariffs.

[Daehawk]

Just stopped in drunk to say...fuck tarriffs...they help no one and hurt everyone..anyone wit ha piece of sense knows this..same with school vouchers. Dumbass politicians are going to be the ruin the the USA

[Kraken]

Done intelligently, tariffs can protect specific domestic industries while raising revenue without increasing taxes; Democrats like revenue and voters hate taxes, so they certainly belong in our playbook. Needless to say, "intelligent" and trump are oxymorons.

[Daehawk]

hahaha no doubt.

[Victoria Raverna]

Done intelligently, tariffs can protect specific domestic industries while raising revenue without increasing taxes; Democrats like revenue and voters hate taxes, so they certainly belong in our playbook. Needless to say, "intelligent" and trump are oxymorons.

But aren't tariffs the same as import taxes?

[Isgrimnur]

[Kraken]

Done intelligently, tariffs can protect specific domestic industries while raising revenue without increasing taxes; Democrats like revenue and voters hate taxes, so they certainly belong in our playbook. Needless to say, "intelligent" and trump are oxymorons.

But aren't tariffs the same as import taxes?

Effectively, yes, but most consumers don't see them that way. Think of them as stealth taxes.

[Rumpy]

Where it gets really complicated is when multiple parts of a production process, like say the vehicle industry, need to cross over the border multiple times before it can be fully assembled. So, it gets hit by tariffs not once, not twice, but sometimes up to 3 times as it crosses back and forth, and that gets factored into the final price of the vehicle.

At the same time, Trump has told auto manufacturers not to raise prices, which has really put them in an unwinnable situation.

Of course Trump wants production to move completely to the U.S, and it wouldn't be an overnight thing, more like 5-10 years for them to become established. And then there's the fact that Canadian automakers have stated they have no intention to move.

Done intelligently, tariffs can protect specific domestic industries while raising revenue without increasing taxes

This is essentially what Canada has been doing for years, decades even, and it's partly what Trump takes issue with. But it's done to protect our own dairy industry; it's small and regulated, and if we didn't have those tariffs and allowed the full flow of U.S dairy products to enter our market, our own markets would essentially not be able to compete. What we've done is give American dairy products a quota, where meeting such a quota would trigger tariffs, but it has never met that quota. And yet Trump complains of unfair practices.

If you're ever put in a position of always being under threat from a bigger market, then naturally you're going to want to protect what you have.

[LordMortis]

Hank rates wanting to tariff penguins as only A tier crazy. You'll never guess what made it to S Tier