Padre's Werewolf 2: Lycanthropic Boogaloo

Jiffy · Post by **Jiffy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:04 pm

Since it looks like I am the next to go, the innocents remaining take a good hard look at who was pushing early for my death. You wont have many more chances to get it right, and you keep getting pushed around by the wolves in your midst. (Not that I have done any better, mind you.

)

Ænima · Post by **Ænima** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:45 pm

Ok, Spiff said he was contacted by the Seer and Crux is innocent. Then he was killed. So that means one of two things: Crux is innocent and Cesare screwed up on assuming Kelric was a howler or Spiff was contacted by a wolf in Seer's clothing. I need to ponder this a little longer. It seems like all the pieces are here to put this puzzle together.

Ænima · Post by **Ænima** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:13 pm

On further thought, if Spiff had been contacted by a false Seer, Crux's claim that the seer was Cesare must have been true, or Spiff wouldn't have believed it. Therefore, I must conclude that Crux is telling the truth.

String Asharak up.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:17 pm

Asharak wrote:
Crux wrote:Why do you automatically exclude, for example, Asharak from the list? Obviously voting for innocents isn't a pre-requisite for guilt. Even our seer voted for innocents.
Because he has better instincts that you? Actually, that's true, but it has nothing to do with it.

He constructed an analysis based on voting patterns. He then made adjustments based on weighing evidence presented in this thread. He stuck with his methodology and posted the conclusions it led him to.

You made his list, but then got excluded as a target because of things you've posted. I didn't make his list because I haven't voted nearly as suspiciously as you - and I don't get added as a target because other than your baseless "gut" accusations against me, nothing's been said here that actually supports the notion that I'm a werewolf.

Seriously. Your gut has led you astray every time you've voted in this game. Why do you continue to rely on it when better options have been presented to you? Even if you want to discount my justifications for Jiffy being a threat (because your gut distrusts me), Gryndyl's given you an equally rational argument against Jiffy.

We really don't have any more time for you to keep pursuing these inaccurate, instinctual vendettas.

- Ash

I've not been voting on 'gut' instincts. I've been voting based on people's accusations and the comments I recieved from the Seer. Two people consistently pushed for my lynchings: Kelric and tru1cy. They never had any real reason to, but they never really stopped trying to get my killed. That made them appear suspicious - enough so that other people voted for them also.

There's no vendetta, Ash. Absent a Seer, and with 33% of our remaining people as werewolves, everyone is a suspect.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:19 pm

J.D. wrote:Why didn't Crux die this evening? He has more information about the wolves than any of us and they let him live. Only two possibilities, either he's a wolf himself, or the wolves are trying to turn us against him.

I need more time to ponder this development.

Actually, there was one other person left alive who had as much info as me: Spiff. Remember Spiff was contacted by the Seer also.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:20 pm

Ænima wrote:On further thought, if Spiff had been contacted by a false Seer, Crux's claim that the seer was Cesare must have been true, or Spiff wouldn't have believed it. Therefore, I must conclude that Crux is telling the truth.

String Asharak up.

I'll warn you I don't know Asharak is a wolf for sure! I'm guessing at this point. I am going to go back through the myriad accusations and votes and see if I can notice some patterns. I'll ask my fellow villagers to hold off the lynch-mob until later. We only get one chance to get this right now.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:36 pm

Ænima wrote:Cesare screwed up on assuming Kelric was a howler

Ya think?

setaside · Post by **setaside** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:44 pm

This game may have been slow to get started but I think this one is by far the most interesting game of Werewolf I've read since this all started. Whoever the wolves are, they are playing the game VERY well.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:46 pm

Did we just hang Jiffy?

Or does this need to be the majority vote?

[/b]JIFFYJIFFY

I'm just so happy to be back!

Jiffy · Post by **Jiffy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:50 pm

setaside wrote:This game may have been slow to get started but I think this one is by far the most interesting game of Werewolf I've read since this all started. Whoever the wolves are, they are playing the game VERY well.

I agree, especially since they just got a bunch of sheep to hang another innocent (me). With the seer likely dead, or has yet to find the real wolves yet, all of this mis-direction is killing off the village.

And I agree, this is by far the most entertaining due to the large amount of people, and the fact that it is lasting longer.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:53 pm

The early rounds could have gone on a little quicker, but it is definately interesting to see what is happening. It's the only game where I've been constantly checking for updates even though I'm out of the game.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:55 pm

I'd like a vowel, Pat.

Ænima · Post by **Ænima** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:00 pm

Crux wrote:
Ænima wrote:On further thought, if Spiff had been contacted by a false Seer, Crux's claim that the seer was Cesare must have been true, or Spiff wouldn't have believed it. Therefore, I must conclude that Crux is telling the truth.

String Asharak up.
I'll warn you I don't know Asharak is a wolf for sure! I'm guessing at this point. I am going to go back through the myriad accusations and votes and see if I can notice some patterns. I'll ask my fellow villagers to hold off the lynch-mob until later. We only get one chance to get this right now.

I understand. I've been suspicious of Asharak ever since his "I'm going with the majority" thing. That smacks of not really caring to me. Not to mention he has been pressing for you which, to me, defies logic.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:08 pm

Wait a minute! That "MAJORITY" for kelric included YOU AND CRUX who had ALREADY voted!!!!

Now I'm getting confused...

"Vote with us and we won't eat you?"
"Vote with us and you'll get lynched?"

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:08 pm

Ænima wrote:On further thought, if Spiff had been contacted by a false Seer, Crux's claim that the seer was Cesare must have been true, or Spiff wouldn't have believed it. Therefore, I must conclude that Crux is telling the truth.

String Asharak up.

Alright I'll buy this logic I guess. So for fear of also getting lumped in the going with the majority vote I will switch to Asharak.

Ash, do us all a favor and actually be a friggin wolf will you.

Ænima · Post by **Ænima** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:13 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Wait a minute! That "MAJORITY" for kelric included YOU AND CRUX who had ALREADY voted!!!!

Now I'm getting confused...

"Vote with us and we won't eat you?"
"Vote with us and you'll get lynched?"

I'm not saying I don't like who he voted for. I'm saying I don't like the reason he voted for him.

Asharak · Post by **Asharak** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:25 pm

Remus West wrote:Alright I'll buy this logic I guess. So for fear of also getting lumped in the going with the majority vote I will switch to Asharak.

Wait, what logic? There's absolutely no damn logic there. Crux being honest has nothing to do with my hypothetical status as a werewolf.

Crux being honest proves that Crux isn't masterminding this thing, a fact which I have myself acknowledged in pursuing Jiffy instead of Crux at this point. It says nothing, however, about who is behind the killings instead of Crux.

If you want a logical assessment of who the wolves are, you'd do much better to read the posts Gryndyl and I made on the last page. We are the only ones who have even tried to put a rational, logical system in place.

Aenima wrote:I understand. I've been suspicious of Asharak ever since his "I'm going with the majority" thing. That smacks of not really caring to me. Not to mention he has been pressing for you which, to me, defies logic.

Oh for the love of God. "Pressing for [Crux]"?!?! I just APOLOGIZED TO THE MAN.

Also, my apologies to you if you interpreted my "going with the majority" comment a few days back as not caring. It wasn't. It was simply not having enough information myself to differentiate between two possible threats. Also, at that point the game had been moving at the speed of molasses, and rather than prolong an argument over a lynching about which I had no evidence to support either side, I was willing to defer my judgment to those who felt more sure in their assessments than I did at that point.

I am not a wolf. Of course, I can't prove that. What I can do is provide an intelligent assessment of which players have the highest likelihoods of being wolves - something which Gryndyl is doing as well - and point out that I am not on that list. I am not on my list, or his.

These accusations against me don't make sense. Crux has accused me because I was hunting for him. I understand that, and I've since publicly retracted my accusation against him and apologized for it. Jiffy's vote is obviously motivated by self-defence, since he accused me immediately after I nominated him for lynching today. Aenima - I hope I've clarified my past comments and again addressed the Crux situation that led to your vote against me. And Remus, all I can say is that you do yourself a disservice to follow sheepishly along with the shoddy justifications that others have offered against me.

As Jack Bauer might say, we are running out of time. If we lynch another innocent today, the game is all but over. All I can do is implore everyone, in the absence of certainty, to lynch the person who is most likely to be a wolf based on their behaviour in this game so far. And that person is most certainly not me.

- Ash

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:28 pm

The game history:

Night 1:
Grundbegriff is slain by wolves.

Day 1:
JD casts doubt on Leigh. No vote.
Leigh responds by voting for JD.
Crux votes for Leigh.
Leigh withdraws her vote.
Tru1cy casts doubt on Leigh.
J.D again casts doubt on Leigh, again without voting.
tru1cy votes for Leigh.
JD votes for Leigh.
Kelric defends Leigh.
Remus votes for Leigh.
Jiffy votes for Leigh.
Kelric defends Leigh again.
Jiffy casts doubt on Kelric.
Cesare votes for Leigh.
JD casts doubt on Remus.
Spiff votes for Leigh.
Kelric votes for Leigh.
JD casts doubt on Kelric.
msteelers votes for Leigh.

Leigh dies!

Analysis:
JD cast doubt on three separate people, voting for one of them. Jiffy is the only other person sowing seeds of doubt, his onto Kelric. Important to note two of the three people JD cast doubt on are proven innocents.

Night 2:
msteelers jokingly? accuses Asharak. No vote.
JD casts doubt on everyone who was quiet.
CSL casts doubt on msteelers.
Jiffy casts doubt on Kelric.
CSL is killed by wolves.

Day 2:
Asharak casts doubt on msteelers.
Spiff casts doubt on msteelers.
Aenima casts doubt on msteelers
msteelers votes for Jiffy
Orinoco votes for msteelers
Crux votes for msteelers
JD votes for msteelers
Jiffy votes for msteelers
msteelers withdraws his vote for Jiffy
tru1cy votes for Jiffy
JD votes for Jiffy
Gryndyl votes for msteelers
Spiff votes for triggercut
Remus votes for Crux
Kelric votes for Crux
msteelers casts doubt on Crux
Crux withdraws his vote for msteelers
Aenima votes for Chaosraven
triggercut casts doubt on Chaosraven
Kelric withdraws his vote for Crux
msteelers votes for Crux
triggercut withdraws his vote for Spiff
tru1cy changes vote from Jiffy to msteelers
triggercut votes for msteelers
msteelers casts doubt on Crux, tru1ct and Cesare
JD changes his vote to msteelers
Crux votes for msteelers

msteelers dies. Is innocent.

Analysis:
Obviously an action-packed day. JD opens the doubt-casting by a general accusation at absent people. CSL then doubts msteelers and is promptly killed by the wolves. This is likely an attempt at misdirection on their part.
Jiffy also got a stab at Kelric in there. Ignoring the known innocents, the only other noteworthy action in this round was JD's voting... again voting third for someone (msteelers) he changes it briefly to Jiffy before returning his vote to msteelers.

Night 3:
Kelric casts doubt on Crux
Asharak casts doubt on Kelric and Crux
triggercut casts doubt on Cesare
Wolves kill triggercut

Day 3:
Cesare casts doubt on Kelric
Crux votes for Kelric
tru1cy votes for Crux
Jiffy votes for tru1cy
Spiff votes for Kelric
Remus votes for Crux
Kelric votes for Crux
Cesare defends Crux
Kelric changes vote to Remus
tru1cy casts doubt on Crux and Jiffy
Kelric casts doubt on Crux
Gryndyl votes for tru1cy
Remus casts doubt on Crux
Kelric votes for Crux
Crux casts doubt on Kelric
Spiff casts doubt on Kelric
Asharak votes for Kelric
Remus casts doubt on Crux
Orinoco votes for Crux
Asharak votes for Crux
Crux changes vote to tru1cy
Cesare changes vote to tru1ct
Orinoco changes vote to tru1cy
Spiff changes vote to tru1cy
tru1cy casts doubt on Crux and Jiffy
Asharak changes vote to tru1cy

tru1cy dies. Is innocent.

Analysis:

This is where things get truly interesting. Now we have a three villager voting block: Crux, Cesare and Spiff. We were all three convinced of Kelric's guilt, and were suspicious of tru1cy. We switched to tru1cy as group purely for defensive purposes... there was a lynch mob after me, and we knew I was innocent. tru1cy gave us a change to lynch someone else first

Better an unknown than a known innocent...

Remus was throwing a lot of doubt my way through this whole process and never once wavered. Meanwhile Asharak jumped on the Crux bandwagon, then switched to the tru1cy bandwagon when the momentum shifted. Jiffy and JD, active doubters on previous nights were strangely quiet.

Night 4:
Random talk, Asharak throws some doubt at Crux

Wolves kill Cesare.

Day 4:
JD "returns" from "absence".
Crux announces the Seer's death. Stupidly 'outs' Spiff.
Crux votes for Kelric.
JD votes for Kelric
Kelric votes for JD
Aenima votes for Kelric
Kelric changes vote to Gryndyl
Asharak votes for Kelric
Jiffy votes for Kelric
Remus votes for Kelric
Spiff votes for Kelric
Gryndyl votes for Kelric

Kelric dies. Is innocent.

Analysis:

Once I threw the accusation at Kelric it was a landslide. Why? Because the wolves jumped on board very swiftly without bothering to maneuever or cast doubt. They knew Kelric was innocent, and I had given them some compelling excuses to jump on board without the song and dance.

My glimpses on truly suspicious characters:

JD. - he's been quick to cast doubt on people consistently through each round, yet only votes after two or more people have already done so.
Jiffy - also a doubt-caster, has consistently voted for innocents (but then so have I).
Asharak - habitual vote changer. He's made a habit of being 'doubtfully' swayed by people's votes, leaving himself a convenient out every time. He has also cast a lot of doubt at people early in rounds without actually voting. Funnily enough at no time has he voted for a guilty person - it has all been innocents and myself (whom I repeat as being innocent but obviously you might doubt me

)

Who has flown under the radar?
Gryndyl*
Chaosraven
Remus*

*Remus and Gryndyl have both voted for innocents, but never come under suspicion themselves.

Conclusion? I still feel Asharak is guilty. I think his second henchman is JD. Jiffy I'm iffy on, but consider him to possibly be the third wolf... for now.

Asharak · Post by **Asharak** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:34 pm

Crux wrote:Funnily enough at no time has he voted for a guilty person

I'm not going to get to far into your analysis - people can draw their own conclusions; I've offered as much defence of myself as I can already - but this comment just screams for a reply.

Every vote to lynch anyone by every person in the game has been against an innocent person, by pure virtue of the fact that we haven't found a vote yet.

So please don't try to condemn based on that fact. We are all equally culpable for screwing this up so far.

- Ash

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:35 pm

Wait.. Kelric is dead?

I have to go back to read...

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:39 pm

Heh.. oh yeah, that same majority I was just talkin' about.

I'm such a dork.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:44 pm

I withdraw my vote for Asharak to think things through some more.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:52 pm

I just keep going back to the original 9 who lynched leigh....

Is there a pattern from those who voted her death, i.e. someone vocal of the 9 gets someone else of the 9 lynched? Or someone of the 9 gets vocal and then gets killed?

I think I'm going to have to work out some info using that and post it.

(BTW: if I get killed I may just have to post it in the META under spoiler tag)

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:54 pm

I think we really need to start looking for people who are innocent first, to narrow down the guilty ones.

Chaosraven
J.D.
Gryndyl
Ænima
Remus West
Jiffy
Asharak
Orinoco
Crux

I contend only an idiot would vote for me today, since we all know the wolves are killing me tonight. Sadly, other than past voting and supicious habits, there is absolutely nothing to separate the rest of you now that Cesare is dead

Asharak's voting patterns have been suspicious, but honestly JD stinks more of wolf than him to my mind. I am very suspicious of the quick voting block forming against Jiffy. Three wolves amongst us... if they help us railroad one person then we're all doomed.

JD is my vote. I'm more sure of him than I am of Asharak. This may not be saying much, but it's all I have for now. He has a pattern of bringing the spotlight on other people, then sitting back and waiting for a few votes before jumping on the bandwagon. Maybe he's just been looking for smoke, but it smells like puppy to me.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:27 pm

Ok, so I went back to the nine.

Kelric, Cesare, JD, Remus, Jiffy, tru1cy, msteelers, spiff, and crux.

Of them: JD, Jiffy, tru1cy, and crux voted to lynch msteelers.
(Kelric Remus and msteelers voted for crux) Crux voted for triggercut.

Next vote: Kelric, tru1cy, and remus vote for crux,
while Cesare, jiffy, spiff, and crux lynch tru1cy

Next vote:
JD, Remus, jiffy, spiff, and crux lynch kelric.

So JD, Remus, Jiffy (assuming he lives this vote) and crux survive from the original 9 lynch mob.

I wonder how much discussion has gone on for choice of victim and lynch mob has gone on behind the scenes in those realms...

Kelric and Remus have repeated votes for crux... yet neither were killed in the night.

Well, that's the basic synopsis I got from rereading up to this point.

I'm going to guess that crux is NOT a wolf but someone (maybe a couple someones) of the remaining *ARE*

Keep in mind this little ramble is *ONLY* based on the original nine who lynched leigh, and doesn't factor in other peoples who responded or voted for or against others not on the list. I only include triggercut on the vote list as he was killed too.

I stand by my vote for JIFFY

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:40 pm

Asharak wrote:
Crux wrote:Funnily enough at no time has he voted for a guilty person
I'm not going to get to far into your analysis - people can draw their own conclusions; I've offered as much defence of myself as I can already - but this comment just screams for a reply.

Every vote to lynch anyone by every person in the game has been against an innocent person, by pure virtue of the fact that we haven't found a vote yet.

So please don't try to condemn based on that fact. We are all equally culpable for screwing this up so far.

- Ash

I think he meant that to mean that you had only voted for innocent people who got lynched and those who had made his list of "proven innocents". A statement that could also be said of me due to the fact that I have voted for Crux, Leigh, and Kelric. Leigh and Kelric obviously were not wolves and I think Crux includes himself on his proven innocent list. That said I do want to read through Crux's post more carefully and think over some other things from this game before finalizing my vote this round. I therefore withdraw my vote for Asharak for now.

J.D. · Post by **J.D.** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:40 pm

Crux wrote: ...stuff...

Remus was throwing a lot of doubt my way through this whole process and never once wavered. Meanwhile Asharak jumped on the Crux bandwagon, then switched to the tru1cy bandwagon when the momentum shifted. Jiffy and JD, active doubters on previous nights were strangely quiet.

...stuff...

Keep in mind I was "strangely quiet" because I was in Niagara Falls proposing to my g/f (now fiancee) from the afternoon of 8/18, until the evening of 8/19. My quietness had nothing to do with my eagerness to remain in the background.

I still feel Crux is leading us on. We seem so sure that's he innocent, which makes him even more guilty in my eyes. However, to me, the evidence here makes me question Asharak and even though he's a fellow Canadian, I think we need to string him up.

J.D. · Post by **J.D.** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:44 pm

Crux wrote:JD is my vote. I'm more sure of him than I am of Asharak. This may not be saying much, but it's all I have for now. He has a pattern of bringing the spotlight on other people, then sitting back and waiting for a few votes before jumping on the bandwagon. Maybe he's just been looking for smoke, but it smells like puppy to me.

Vote for me if you must, but I am most certainly innocent. You can only get information from others when you force them to talk, and what better way to force someone's hand then to accuse them? Lurking in the background does nothing but cast suspicion on you, and being vocal without accusing makes you look like a wuss. My style is to dive in, sling some mud and watch the results roll in. I realize that my votes have all been misdirected up to this point, but it was not intentional, nor do I have anything to hide.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:48 pm

Having had suspicion cast on me for my own silence due to work I can almost accept JD's explanation... but I can't shake the feeling that one or two of them are among the wolves. Just as I feel crux has been too vocal thus far (and indeed the lack of him being killed does make me wonder).

JD Jiffy Remus and Crux maintain position at the top of my list of suspects.

But based on the silent but deadly aspect I would have to wonder about
the others.

Man I love this.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:06 pm

Based on Remus' voting and unvoting I think I need to examine that aspect of the remaining players histories as well.

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:09 pm

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:13 pm

Crux wrote:The game history:

Day 1:
JD casts doubt on Leigh. No vote.

Leigh responds by voting for JD.

J.D again casts doubt on Leigh, again without voting.

JD votes for Leigh.

JD casts doubt on Remus.

JD casts doubt on Kelric.

Leigh dies!

Analysis:
JD cast doubt on three separate people, voting for one of them. Jiffy is the only other person sowing seeds of doubt, his onto Kelric. Important to note two of the three people JD cast doubt on are proven innocents.

Night 2:

JD casts doubt on everyone who was quiet.

Day 2:

JD changes his vote to msteelers

msteelers dies. Is innocent.

Analysis:
Obviously an action-packed day. JD opens the doubt-casting by a general accusation at absent people.
Ignoring the known innocents, the only other noteworthy action in this round was JD's voting... again voting third for someone (msteelers) he changes it briefly to Jiffy before returning his vote to msteelers.

Day 3:

Jiffy and JD, active doubters on previous nights were strangely quiet.

Day 4:
JD "returns" from "absence".

JD votes for Kelric
Kelric votes for JD

Kelric dies. Is innocent.

JD. - he's been quick to cast doubt on people consistently through each round, yet only votes after two or more people have already done so.

I think his second henchman is JD.

And to this I say "crux had better sleep with silver pajamas on"

Crux · Post by **Crux** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:16 pm

Chaos, I know I'm dying tonight mate. I just want to take one fricking werewolf with me.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:56 pm

Alright, since I have decided to believe in Crux (god help me) and since J.D. was on Gryndyl's list that I was hoping would be right I'm voting J.D.. Oh, and congrats on the engagement dude.

Asharak · Post by **Asharak** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:19 pm

Information has been presented to me that suggests Jiffy's innocence, and makes a more likely wolf out of J.D., so I'm switching my vote to him.

- Ash

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:28 pm

Fabulous.

Now there's a threeway tie.

And 2 of them are on my list of high suspects.

Do I change based on my above analysis??

Jiffy · Post by **Jiffy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:30 pm

Asharak wrote:Information has been presented to me that suggests Jiffy's innocence, and makes a more likely wolf out of J.D., so I'm switching my vote to him.

- Ash

I'm too stupid to be a wolf.

I'm switching my vote do JD as well.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:32 pm

I also change my vote to JD

(may gawd have mercy on our souls)

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:33 pm

(but if crux doesn't wake up my money is still on jiffy and/or remus)

J.D. · Post by **J.D.** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 9:51 pm

Werewolves win. Good job guys.