Padre's Werewolf 2: Lycanthropic Boogaloo

[Chaosraven]

hmmm... better for meta

[Crux]

i have to say that was great to watch. You wolves made every play perfect and no one ever had a good vote against any of you.

That's the beauty of having killed the Seer so ridiculously early in the game. I'm very curious to hear the rationale behind their early kills because that was when the game was decided. The rest was just cleanup. Our odds of winning were roughly 25% once they killed Cesare so early in the game. But why Cesare? Why triggercut? Those were the two kills that decided it all and they seemed completely random.

[Orinoco]

AWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

AWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Yeah - we're the werewolves of London!!

We were so close to losing it when Ash was accussed.

We won because of communications and planning. I'd like to thank my buds, Asharak and Chaosraven for their support and sharing plans, thoughts and information from the victims.

And I'd like to thank everyone else for their sweet, sweet, flesh...

[Chaosraven]

I think I'll thank Loki and Dame Fortune for just the right conditions...

And a big fuzzy kudos to my partners

[LordMortis]

I knew bandwagonism did the villagers in. I just had no idea how badly. The wolves didn't have to do anything, really.

[Crux]

I knew bandwagonism did the villagers in. I just had no idea how badly. The wolves didn't have to do anything, really.

Almost inevitable when you've got one side playing blind. They played a clean game, and importantly they didn't screw up. But once trigger and cesare went down it was just slaughter.

[Chaosraven]

Actually we had to very specifically do almost nothing. We had to rein in and not overplay our hands when the cards were being dealt our way.

Fan the flames and try to avoid having all three of us in focus.

[tru1cy]

Here's the problem as I see it. Losing the Seer so early hurt. With no concrete information from anyone the villagers had to nominate someone just to move the game along.



Imo, this game only works if everyone is active in posting.


Anyway, well played to the Pack.

[LordMortis]

Almost inevitable when you've got one side playing blind. They played a clean game, and importantly they didn't screw up. But once trigger and cesare went down it was just slaughter.

I don't think so. I'd think that the last thing you'd want to do is railroad a complete unknown. The villagers are trying to get information. They got no information by slaughtering Leigh so quickly. Instead they got the same blindness and were then down two more villagers. The bonus was that it was soo in the best interest of the wolves to see someone railroaded that you almost had to assume that two of the nine votes were wolf votes.

I guess you should never gamble with a Sicilian when death is on the line or some such shit.

[Orinoco]

i have to say that was great to watch. You wolves made every play perfect and no one ever had a good vote against any of you.

That's the beauty of having killed the Seer so ridiculously early in the game. I'm very curious to hear the rationale behind their early kills because that was when the game was decided. The rest was just cleanup. Our odds of winning were roughly 25% once they killed Cesare so early in the game. But why Cesare? Why triggercut? Those were the two kills that decided it all and they seemed completely random.

I hate to tell this Crux because I respect your intelligence, and the way you played the previous game, but you helped us win. We had you targetted early, for the second kill actually because of that, but you were doing such a good job of pointing to innocents, we had to keep you going

Then you sent me a crucial PM which (along with our analysis so far) helped us identify the Seer (we had Cesare and Spiff as one and two for the spot).

I can't remember about trig, I'll check on our PM's and back to you, but we were continuous evaluating our target selection and changing the priority, based on the information to date.

Anyway, great game everyone. I was so nervous at the end that people would change their votes before Padre say them.

On a final note, I was touched by the number of people that PM'd or wrote that they thought I was innocent. It was very hard lying in that situation and I wasn't comfortable doing it but my wolf buddies needed me. Anyway, enough emo - I'm glad we won

[Spiff]

Nice game you hairy bastards!

We got totally PWNED. I agree that once cesare went down, we were screwed. Looking at the posts, with sooo many of us, it was very definately mob mentality.

Accusations without basis, and it just went downhill from there. The wolves just gave us a little kick in the seat to move us along, and we strung up innocents in batches.

My congratulations to the wolves. Very well played.

[Crux]

Almost inevitable when you've got one side playing blind. They played a clean game, and importantly they didn't screw up. But once trigger and cesare went down it was just slaughter.

I don't think so. I'd think that the last thing you'd want to do is railroad a complete unknown. The villagers are trying to get information. They got no information by slaughtering Leigh so quickly. Instead they got the same blindness and were then down two more villagers. The bonus was that it was soo in the best interest of the wolves to see someone railroaded that you almost had to assume that two of the nine votes were wolf votes.

I guess you should never gamble with a Sicilian when death is on the line or some such shit.

But Mortis, without the seer, the discussion is pointless. You can talk and talk and talk, and it doesn't do any good. Unless the wolves screw up. Because absent the information only the seer can provide to the innocent villagers, then there is nothing on which to base decisions but blind luck.

[msteelers]

I hate to tell this Crux because I respect your intelligence, and the way you played the previous game, but you helped us win. We had you targetted early, for the second kill actually because of that, but you were doing such a good job of pointing to innocents, we had to keep you going

I KNEW we should have lynched Crux.

[Gryndyl]

I think that if I ever get chosen as a wolf in one of these games I'll have to play it EXACTLY how I played this one. I think I got a grand total of one vote for me being lynched the entire game

I was probably never near the top of the wolves' grocery list. My suspects were waaaaaayyyy off

[Crux]

I hate to tell this Crux because I respect your intelligence, and the way you played the previous game, but you helped us win. We had you targetted early, for the second kill actually because of that, but you were doing such a good job of pointing to innocents, we had to keep you going

I don't blame you and I'm not offended. Absent any knowledge of who was innocent and who was guilty, it was all guess-work. The odds were against us strongly the instant Cesare and trigger died.

Then you sent me a crucial PM which (along with our analysis so far) helped us identify the Seer (we had Cesare and Spiff as one and two for the spot).

Well, that was because Cesare had convinced me of a couple of people's guilt. When you voted for one of them early and didn't waver I had you pegged for innocent. A stupid mistake on my part to give weight to the Seer's blind guess over anyone else's blind guess. I have to say though I specifically didn't mention Cesare to you, so there was some blind luck in killing him so early in the game.

I can't remember about trig, I'll check on our PM's and back to you, but we were continuous evaluating our target selection and changing the priority, based on the information to date.

This was, I think, the critical kill that started the slaughter. It had to be random luck, since it was only the second night and triggercut hadn't said or done anything of note. But trigger was one of only two known innocents. You killed the voting block that was beginning to form, and tipped our hand in the process.

It really all comes down to information. The wolves had it all, and we had none. They could sit back and react accordingly.

[Orinoco]

Almost inevitable when you've got one side playing blind. They played a clean game, and importantly they didn't screw up. But once trigger and cesare went down it was just slaughter.

I don't think so. I'd think that the last thing you'd want to do is railroad a complete unknown. The villagers are trying to get information. They got no information by slaughtering Leigh so quickly. Instead they got the same blindness and were then down two more villagers. The bonus was that it was soo in the best interest of the wolves to see someone railroaded that you almost had to assume that two of the nine votes were wolf votes.

I guess you should never gamble with a Sicilian when death is on the line or some such shit.

But Mortis, without the seer, the discussion is pointless. You can talk and talk and talk, and it doesn't do any good. Unless the wolves screw up. Because absent the information only the seer can provide to the innocent villagers, then there is nothing on which to base decisions but blind luck.

The discussions provide information. Yes, much of it is garbage and misdirection but some of it is useful. Remember, we needed to identify the seer ASAP also. We were lucky that he didn't catch a wolf before we killed him, but we weren't killing people at night at random - it was based on the probability that they were the seer.

[LordMortis]

But Mortis, without the seer, the discussion is pointless. You can talk and talk and talk, and it doesn't do any good. Unless the wolves screw up. Because absent the information only the seer can provide to the innocent villagers, then there is nothing on which to base decisions but blind luck.

There is trust, faith, paranoia, and voting records to go on.

The deck is stacked but not that favorably. The wolves in this last game are effectively 3 to 6 at the beginning of the game even without a seer. This means if they don't vote as a block the villagers actually have something a bit less than a 2:1 advantage toward winning. (I don't have the math skills to do the real odds of wolf not voting for a wolf's death and how that escalates) If the wolves actually play as if they were villagers, then they hold the losing hand. But because the deck is stacked this all changes though. The wolved get to tilt the odds to stack the game in their favor. But to do so they have to give tells. The less they act like villagers the more likely they are to get spotted.

[Crux]

Almost inevitable when you've got one side playing blind. They played a clean game, and importantly they didn't screw up. But once trigger and cesare went down it was just slaughter.

I don't think so. I'd think that the last thing you'd want to do is railroad a complete unknown. The villagers are trying to get information. They got no information by slaughtering Leigh so quickly. Instead they got the same blindness and were then down two more villagers. The bonus was that it was soo in the best interest of the wolves to see someone railroaded that you almost had to assume that two of the nine votes were wolf votes.

I guess you should never gamble with a Sicilian when death is on the line or some such shit.

But Mortis, without the seer, the discussion is pointless. You can talk and talk and talk, and it doesn't do any good. Unless the wolves screw up. Because absent the information only the seer can provide to the innocent villagers, then there is nothing on which to base decisions but blind luck.

The discussions provide information. Yes, much of it is garbage and misdirection but some of it is useful. Remember, we needed to identify the seer ASAP also. We were lucky that he didn't catch a wolf before we killed him, but we weren't killing people at night at random - it was based on the probability that they were the seer.

For you the discussions provide information. For the villagers once the Seer is dead, they are next to useless... unless the wolves screw up. Railroading isn't the way to go, but a pattern of accusations followed by observation of people's reactions is at that point the only way to gain any information. And even then, if the wolves are playing a half-smart game then it is all pointless as they won't give themselves away.

Barring a mistake from the wolves, once the Seer dies it is all blind luck. Leigh could as easily have been Asharak, and the entire game is different. Blind chance.

[Crux]

But Mortis, without the seer, the discussion is pointless. You can talk and talk and talk, and it doesn't do any good. Unless the wolves screw up. Because absent the information only the seer can provide to the innocent villagers, then there is nothing on which to base decisions but blind luck.

There is trust, faith, paranoia, and voting records to go on.

The deck is stacked but not that favorably. The wolves in this last game are effectively 3 to 6 at the beginning of the game even without a seer. This means if they don't vote as a block the villagers actually have something a bit less than a 2:1 advantage toward winning. (I don't have the math skills to do the real odds of wolf not voting for a wolf's death and how that escalates) If the wolves actually play as if they were villagers, then they hold the losing hand. But because the deck is stacked this all changes though. The wolved get to tilt the odds to stack the game in their favor. But to do so they have to give tells. The less they act like villagers the more likely they are to get spotted.

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

Faith, trust and paranoia are only useful if you have a source of accurate information. Without that it is blind luck.

[Padre]

HISTORY OF THE GAME, MUCH ABRIDGED - FROM PADRE'S PERSPECTIVE

Role Assignment

Asharak, Orinoco and Chaosraven were the Werewolves.

Cesare's Divine Spark was the Seer.

Night and Day 1

The wolves pick Grundbegriff on the basis that he's "dangerously analytical". It bwecoems apparent at this point that Chaosraven isn't repsonding to PMs because he's not logging in to the forum. We press on anyway as the two other wolves (Asharak and Orinoco) can form a majority vote without him. Chaosraven remains a "sleeping partner" for much of the early and middle game.

The seer picks Crux and learns his innocence. He doesn't (I believe) contact him yet though.

Rather cruelly, but perhaps understandably given the lack of information at this point, the mob lynches Leigh, seemingly simply because she'd been talking a lot. The wolves play it cagey and follow the mob rather than leading it, a tactic which would serve them well for most of the game.

Night and Day 2

The wolves pick CSL. I'm not sure why particularly.

Cesare visions triggercut and finds him innocent.

msteelers was lynched after much discussion and a slightly dodgy voting count (again, sorry! Although I imagine one of the wolves who hadn't yet voted for him would have jumped in sooner or later to seal his fate).

At some point the seer, Cesare, contacts both Crux and triggercut, the two he knows are innocent, so that he can build up some support.

Night and Day 3

The wolves nearly kill Ænima but change their minds before I see the PMs and go for triggercut instead. I can only speculate what changed their minds. He'd been posting about wolf strategy, amybe they considered that a threat. Or maybe they somehow figured he's been contacted by the seer.

Anyway, it dimished the cabal of trusted innocents Cesare was building up. The seer sees that Spiff is innocent on this night.

Kelric is nearly lynched, but in the end the crowd tuns on tru1cy. The two active wolves helped finish the vote off, although not so it was obvious.

Night and Day 4

The crucial period of play.

Cesare visions Asharak, but is himself chosen by the wolves for death! I'm unsure as to whther they knew (or even strongly suspected) he was the Seer, but either way Cesare could not communicate his knowledge. This was a major blow for the innocents.

It should be noted that the seer did last for half of the game, although he is of cours emost useful in the latter stages. I expect in the future, game tactics will focus more closely on keeping the seer alive.

This left only Crux and Spiff from the Seer's "cabal foknow innocents".

Crux immediately revealed to the remaining players that Cesare had been the seer. Unfortunately, he pushed suspiscion onto the innocent Kelric, who had been the one the "cabal" most suspected.

This had the effect of causing the whole town to immediately leap on poor Kelric, such that two of the werewolves didn't even need to vote to finsih him off (indeed, in retrospect, both Chaosraven's and Orinoco's failure to vote in that lynching looks a bit suspiscious. Asharak again managed to disguise his vote as merely following the crowd.)

Night and Day 5

Spiff was killed by the wolves, presumably because Crux had fingered him as one of the known innocents and so he wouldn't get lynched.

The day's voting saw a change of tack from Asharak, who went form following the crowd to leading it with apparently-well-argued but actually very deceptive arguments.

Anyway, Asharak seemed to garner some suspiscion for doing so, but ultimately it was J.D who got hanged. At several points Asharak even managed to persuade people to drop their votes for him, which was just marvellous to see.

Night and Day 6

Crux is killed by the wolves, of course, meaning nobody who had been directly contacted and exonerated by the seer had been left alive, leaing the remaining players left with only hearsay. Not that people disbelieved Crux much, or that there seemd to be much doubt that Cesare had been the seer.

Voting this day was very cautious. Orinoco pulled off a great deception by offering a vote and the withdrawing it saying he couldn't be sure, which was a great villager imitation. Chaosraven did something similar afterward.

People voted for Asharak but again withdrew their votes.

Finally, the key moment came when Remus West offered a vote for Ænima, allowing the wolves to pile on after and end it (and they were even helped by poor Gryndyl, who I can only assume had been spun areally huge line by one or more of the wolves)

And that was it.

I'll add to this as more details come to light.

[Gryndyl]

Yeah, it becomes pretty impossible to sort accurate info from all of the misdirection.

[Orinoco]

Then you sent me a crucial PM which (along with our analysis so far) helped us identify the Seer (we had Cesare and Spiff as one and two for the spot).

Well, that was because Cesare had convinced me of a couple of people's guilt. When you voted for one of them early and didn't waver I had you pegged for innocent. A stupid mistake on my part to give weight to the Seer's blind guess over anyone else's blind guess. I have to say though I specifically didn't mention Cesare to you, so there was some blind luck in killing him so early in the game.

You didn't tell me who the seer was, but you told me you had a voting block of 3 and we looked at who voted along with you for the lynching. That along with other infor we had, help us. Yes, we could have been wrong - but I prefer high-probability to random.

Definately, luck is important and the wolves start with an advantage, but we could have easily screwed it up and given ourselves away with bad target selection and/or accusations.

EDIT: Maybe I'm trying to attribute skill rather then luck, because I like to think that I had something to do with why we won I think it's a mix of skill and luck, but I'm happy to have won whatever it was

[Padre]

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

Without intelligence the villager's chances are about one in four. The Seer is not the only source of information. I'll post up some theories on how I reckon the wolves could have been spotted later.

The seer died really early

He died halfway through the game, on Night 4. In any case, the seer's number one job is to keep himself alive a smuch as possible. Sure, it could happen that he's picked off right away, but it's unlikely especially early on.

I suspect something was done to make the wolves suspect Cesare over the many other people they could have killed but didn't that night.

The wolves would have to tell me what it was.

[Crux]

we could have easily screwed it up and given ourselves away with bad target selection and/or accusations.

Hence my saying way above that you all played a good game

[Gryndyl]

Finally, the key moment came when Remus West offered a vote for Ænima, allowing the wolves to pile on after and end it (and they were even helped by poor Gryndyl, who I can only assume had been spun areally huge line by one or more of the wolves)

Yeah, that would have been Asharak. He sent me a righteously indignant pm and, since he wasn't really on my suspect list, I swapped my vote

[LordMortis]

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

How do you get that? If I had the math skills I'd show you were I get the less less the than 2 in 3 results, but I am not math guy. The basic premise I am working from is that if the wolves aren't acting together to slaughter villagers then we start at slightly less than 3 in 17 (or around 16%) to kill a wolf, meeting 1/3 third of the villager objective on the first round. There will be ~six shots at this 16% which will move up or down in opposition to the way the lynching went and increasing everytime a villager is mauled until such a time as the wolves have carte blanche in acting as unit. (The odds have a chance to scale all the way up to 33% if there are two wolf and four villagers (This won't apply to two villager and one wolf. As there is no tell for the wolve's voting at that point))

But the thing is that the wolves can easily tip those scales. Every tip they make is something that is capable of being examined in hindsight though.

[Padre]

DRAMTIC IRONY AWARDS

The emphases are mine. I just laughed and laughed when I saw some of these posts. It's a cruel, cruel game .

Kelric

Watch the wolves turn out to be Aenima, Orinoco and Chaosraven just to screw us all up.

Gryndyl

(after posting a lengthy analysis of vote histories...)

Chaosraven isn't on the list because he made a late appearance to the thread, making the claim that he hadn't known the game had started. This was after the first werewolf kill, making him appear innocent. If he's a wolf then that was an extremely clever ploy and I gotta hand it to him.

Orinoco made the first version of this helpful chart which leaves me inclined to disregard him as suspect.

Tee hee. More as they're spotted. Send them in .

[triggercut]

Once Asharak started babbling on and on after I died, I had him made as a Werewolf. Orinoco and Chaosraven I missed out on.

[LordMortis]

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

OK you are confirming what Crux says. I'm trying to see it. If the wolves play as villagers, which is to say they have no tells, intutively I see the villagers as hitting 3 wolves short of 66% (may actually be just over 50%. I'm simply not that good at math.) Where is my spread sheet man when I need him. Neal, I need a complex truth table, STAT!

[Gryndyl]

DRAMTIC IRONY AWARDS


Gryndyl

(after posting a lengthy analysis of vote histories...)

Chaosraven isn't on the list because he made a late appearance to the thread, making the claim that he hadn't known the game had started. This was after the first werewolf kill, making him appear innocent. If he's a wolf then that was an extremely clever ploy and I gotta hand it to him.

Orinoco made the first version of this helpful chart which leaves me inclined to disregard him as suspect.

Tee hee. More as they're spotted. Send them in .

Yeah, my "helpful" chart threw me off for the entuire rest of the game

[Crux]

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

How do you get that? If I had the math skills I'd show you were I get the less less the than 2 in 3 results, but I am not math guy. The basic premise I am working from is that if the wolves aren't acting together to slaughter villagers then we start at slightly less than 3 in 17 (or around 16%) to kill a wolf, meeting 1/3 third of the villager objective on the first round. There will be ~six shots at this 16% which will move up or down in opposition to the way the lynching went and increasing everytime a villager is mauled until such a time as the wolves have carte blanche in acting as unit. (The odds have a chance to scale all the way up to 33% if there are two wolf and four villagers (This won't apply to two villager and one wolf. As there is no tell for the wolve's voting at that point))

But the thing is that the wolves can easily tip those scales. Every tip they make is something that is capable of being examined in hindsight though.

Save yourself some math. Look at the tables here:

http://www.eblong.com/zarf/werewolf-stats.html

Essentially with the villagers guessing blind (ie no seer input), the chances of the villagers winning in an 18 player game with 3 werewolves is 0.17. That is to say, a 17% chance. Add in the seer, and the chances go up. How much depends on how late into the game the Seer lives, and how well he does his job. Obviously collusion between the wolves affects the percentage also. How much is completely unknown and where the skill factor really starts to come into play.

[Crux]

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

OK you are confirming what Crux says. I'm trying to see it. If the wolves play as villagers, which is to say they have no tells, intutively I see the villagers as hitting 3 wolves short of 66% (may actually be just over 50%. I'm simply not that good at math.) Where is my spread sheet man when I need him. Neal, I need a complex truth table, STAT!

Wait. So you're trying to say the villagers have a 66% chance of guessing the wolves?!?

[Padre]

OK you are confirming what Crux says. I'm trying to see it. If the wolves play as villagers, which is to say they have no tells, intutively I see the villagers as hitting 3 wolves short of 66% (may actually be just over 50%. I'm simply not that good at math.) Where is my spread sheet man when I need him. Neal, I need a complex truth table, STAT!

This is how it works.

First, ignore the Seer. Also ignore the persuasiveness or otherwise of the wolves. We're assuming the villagers are picking absoloutely randomly each day for who to lynch.

Second, recognise the wolves will never kill another wolf during the night. Each night they might get the ser or a villager, but never naother wolf.

Therefore, each night/day cycle one of two things will happen - a wolf and a villager die, or two villagers die (ignoring the seer for the moment).

The probability of getting a wolf in the lynching varies but is always small (they're in the minority), wheras the probaility of getting a villager is larger.

If you then draw out a tree of probability and sum up all the paths in which all the wolves are killed before the numbers reach equality between wolves and villagers, you find out that it is ~25%. The actual sums are easy but tedious.

[Padre]

Essentially with the villagers guessing blind (ie no seer input), the chances of the villagers winning in an 18 player game with 3 werewolves is 0.17. That is to say, a 17% chance.

Sorry, no, you're reading the chart wrong there. In that chart he includes the moderator as a player. I don't do that.

By his chart this was a nineteen player game, giving a 27.8% win chance.

[Crux]

Essentially with the villagers guessing blind (ie no seer input), the chances of the villagers winning in an 18 player game with 3 werewolves is 0.17. That is to say, a 17% chance.

Sorry, no, you'rre reaidnt he cghart wrong there. In that chart he includes the moderator as a player. I don't do that.

By his chart this was a nineteen player game, giving a 27.8% win chance.

Doh. You're right. I missed this 'including a moderator' comment at the top!

27.8% it is.

[LordMortis]

First, ignore the Seer. Also ignore the persuasiveness or otherwise of the wolves. We're assuming the villagers are picking absoloutely randomly each day for who to lynch.

Check. Already doing so.

Second, recognise the wolves will never kill another wolf during the night. Each night they might get the ser or a villager, but never naother wolf.

Check. Already doing so.

Therefore, each night/day cycle one of two things will happen - a wolf and a villager die, or two villagers die (ignoring the seer for the moment).

The probability of getting a wolf in the lynching varies but is always small (they're in the minority), wheras the probaility of getting a villager is larger.

Yep. Starts just shy of 16%.

If you then draw out a tree of probability and sum up all the paths in which all the wolves are killed before the numbers reach equality between wolves and villagers, you find out that it is ~25%. The actual sums are easy but tedious.

That's where I'm trying to get to and why I am about to read Crux link as 25% sounds completely counter intuitive to me.

Edit:

Link didn't help.

But even then 4 Players, One wolf. villagers win 0. is entirely wrong. assuming random:

Night: wolf kills villager.
Day: two villagers, one wolf.
There is something less than a 33% chance that you get the wolf. Maybe substantially less by definately more than 0%.

I don't trust his numbers.

Edit again: I didn't see the moderator as a player either. Never Mind. Now his numbers might be right but I have no idea how without seeing a breakdown or doing one myself. I'll have to go home and do the math to try and understand a bit better.

One more edit: The most fascinating thing about the chart is how upping to an "even" players skews the away from the villagers because of the way it gives an extra mauling over the extra vote. (Not mention practically, it screws up an easy majority vote)

[The Meal]

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

How do you get that? If I had the math skills I'd show you were I get the less less the than 2 in 3 results, but I am not math guy.

18 people with 3 werewolves, first to die at night by the fangs of the wolves?

Corroborate my understanding of the setup, and I'll be in my bunk for a bit.

~Neal

[Remus West]

I'd like to pretend to be all indignant now since I'm the stupid bastard that told Chaosraven he was in the friggin game so he finally showed up. I thought that since he hadn't been around he had to be innocent. I would also like to add that I truely suck at this.

[LordMortis]

Without a Seer, the villagers' odds of winning are about 1 in 4.

How do you get that? If I had the math skills I'd show you were I get the less less the than 2 in 3 results, but I am not math guy.

18 people with 3 werewolves, first to die at night by the fangs of the wolves?

Corroborate my understanding of the setup, and I'll be in my bunk for a bit.

~Neal

Your understanding is correct. But I finally am beginning to see the light even without seeing your spreadsheet genius. You want to add to your equation that wolves never kill wolves at night, but might during the day.

Every (reasonable) incarnation possible works toward one of conclusion, where either the humans win 1/3 of the time or they win 1/4 of the time. The stack for these odds gets worse as wolves are added to the equation shutting, having the potential to shut out the villagers before one of those two situation arise. I'm good, though I still wouldn't mind see the spread sheet.

[Orinoco]

I'd like to pretend to be all indignant now since I'm the stupid bastard that told Chaosraven he was in the friggin game so he finally showed up. I thought that since he hadn't been around he had to be innocent. I would also like to add that I truely suck at this.

I loved how you (with Ash's 'help') were trying to persuade me and Chaos to vote to lynch Aenima. I decided to play hard to get as I wasn't sure if you were playing us - I had to see which way you voted first...

Edit: I think that Ash worked on Gryndyl so that even if you backed off, we would still win.