Trumponomics - Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying & Love Tariffs

[LawBeefaroni]

It's been suggested that the bond market activity is what spurred the tariff "pause".

What just happened in the US Treasury market?

In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.

At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.

Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.

It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.

And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.

Where's all the money supposed to go? Every other country on earth is dependent on the US in one way or another. What other avenues of safety are there? Australia is the prettiest pig in that poke.

Asian bonds are getting interest. But it doesn't have to go to sovereign debt. Gold is up. BTC is back to $83.3K

[Drazzil]

It's been suggested that the bond market activity is what spurred the tariff "pause".

What just happened in the US Treasury market?

In short, the U.S. Treasury market -- a central pillar of the global financial system -- came under heavy selling pressure, sending 10-year borrowing costs surging.

At one-point, 10-year bond yields were set for their biggest weekly jump in more than a decade. Bond yields move inversely to the price. Trading at 4.27% on Thursday, those yields are comfortably below Wednesday's peak of 4.51% . They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen in the 1980s.

Notably, this jump was a sharp reversal of the initial fall seen after Trump's sweeping tariff announcement last week that raised U.S. recession risks and expectations for rate cuts.

It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.

And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.

Where's all the money supposed to go? Every other country on earth is dependent on the US in one way or another. What other avenues of safety are there? Australia is the prettiest pig in that poke.

Asian bonds are getting interest. But it doesn't have to go to sovereign debt. Gold is up. BTC is back to $83.3K

Yeaaahhhh. Gold is INSANE right now. I wish it would go down to 250 dollars an oz again. I would be so happy. I could afford it.

[LordMortis]

It's because US debt is no longer viewed as the premier safe haven. Trump shat all over that and now investors in the US and the rest of the world are finding other avenues for safety.

And increased treasury rates mean the national debt increases even more. Death spirals can start this way.

Who could have seen this coming?

Also, how trustworthy is new republic? According to them, servicing our debt is more expensive for zero actual revenue because breaking shit is without a plan or investment in fixing it is what we do now. When FA and FO are in the state of being concurrent

https://newrepublic.com/post/193930/por ... ffs-glitch

Thanks to a technical glitch, Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t even been collected at U.S. ports.

On Friday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that an entry code in the U.S. system for American ships to use to have their freight exempted from tariffs isn’t working, and “the issue is being reviewed.” As a result, no tariffs are being collected by the U.S. government for the time being.

U.S. shippers told the news outlet that they have not been charged higher tariff rates on their containers as recently as Thursday, despite Trump’s claims that tariffs are in effect and are being collected. This latest snafu is on top of the fact that many companies and industry groups are still unsure of when tariffs will be collected, especially since Trump keeps changing the rates erratically in social media posts and executive orders, and making new threats almost daily.

“There has been some confusion on what President Trump has said in social media posts on when the tariff starts and what is written in the executive order,” Jarred Varanelli, vice president of U.S. sales at logistics firm Savino Del Bene, told CNBC. “Social media posts are not law on the pause and increase in tariffs. With the constant changes to the regulations, all customs brokers in our industry have a difficult task ahead of them.”

[LawBeefaroni]

"Move fast, break things."

[Max Peck]

Also, how trustworthy is new republic? According to them, servicing our debt is more expensive for zero actual revenue because breaking shit is without a plan or investment in fixing it is what we do now.

Other sources are also reporting that the tariff collection is delayed, so the story seems to check out.

In other Buried On Friday Night News, Trump blinks again...

Trump carves out massive exemptions from reciprocal tariffs, including smartphones, chips and computers

In a notice published late Friday night, US Customs and Border Protection issued new guidance on President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, listing several exemptions like smartphones, computers, chips and other electronics. That carves out a massive hole from his virtually prohibitive 145% tariff on China and comes after Beijing hiked its own duties on US imports but said no further retaliation would come.

President Donald Trump threw the global economy for another loop by carving out massive exemptions from his tariffs, including popular electronics like smartphones.

In a notice published late Friday night, US Customs and Border Protection issued new guidance on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, which were announced just a week and a half ago and then saw a 90-day pause on most countries but additional hikes on China to a prohibitive 145%.

The exemptions includes smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, memory cards and solid-state drives for data storage.

[Smoove_B]

Apple and Nvidia benefit from this? You don't say. It's too bad Zuckerberg isn't in the chip business, though I'm sure his carve outs are coming somehow.

[Zarathud]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

[msduncan]

World champion gamer Elon needed a new video card.

[Max Peck]

It's too bad Zuckerberg isn't in the chip business, though I'm sure his carve outs are coming somehow.

Not if Leon has any say in the matter.

[Rumpy]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

Worst Santa Ever!

[Chraolic]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

Worst Santa Ever!

I had never even heard of a Secret Satan before all this.

[Rumpy]

Trump is still ruining Christmas by imposing tariffs on toys.

Worst Santa Ever!

I had never even heard of a Secret Satan before all this.

Heh, that is one title that has definitely been earned.