Octopus Overlords

Chaosraven wrote:Grund is human, could be one (this would suck as it was one of my scans too, only good side is he cannot be #10)

Oooh yeahhh... Grund.

Yeah, I hope he's not one of em.

redrun wrote:

Unagi wrote:
Specialist #2 and #3.

Please step up and make yourself known.

-- Brain moving slow this morning, so I want to take some time to think about the implications of the double kill last night.

I agree about the specialists coming forward.

Meetings for several hours, but will post more in a bit.

Ouch, does this mean you aren't one of the Specialist then?

redrun wrote:

Unagi wrote:
Specialist #2 and #3.

Please step up and make yourself known.

-- Brain moving slow this morning, so I want to take some time to think about the implications of the double kill last night.

I agree about the specialists coming forward.

Meetings for several hours, but will post more in a bit.

Implications are now obvious - Six and Cavil dead, 10 unconverted (or dead). Seven exploded the bomb.
Seven may or not have found #10.

1. Starbuck protects
2. Apollo, Athena and Cavil scan.
3. Cylons assassinate - Kraegor targeted
4. #7 detonates bomb - Remus blown up
5. Six scans for Baltar/#10 (This is now #7 searching for #10)
6. Baltar scans for Six (Austin was Six)

Unagi wrote:Scoop: You are sticking to the "I am a citizen" thing too, right?

Yep.

So, just to be clear, Cylon #10 scanned Cylon #7 which allowed him to detonate his bomb last night and this means we have two cylons left and possibility have lost one of the unknown specials.

Unknown Specials
Baltar
Apollo
Starbuck
Tory Foster
Specialist
Specialist

Please let me know if I got that right.

Active but have not claimed Specialist:
Scoop20906 ---
Unagi ---
RevHempus ---
redrun ---
-----------------------------
Remainder:

purge ---

Now, I doubt Remus wanted a Specialist scanned (Bakh=human)
and he argued against mipe being one (mipe=human)

Grund is human, could be one (this would suck as it was one of my scans too, only good side is he cannot be #10)

---------------------------

It is possible the Specialists are waiting for the Cylon(s) to claim Specialist, or Grund and Purge are the Specialists.

Scoop20906 wrote:So, just to be clear, Cylon #10 scanned Cylon #7 which allowed him to detonate his bomb last night and this means we have two cylons left and possibility have lost one of the unknown specials.

Please let me know if I got that right.

Negative.

#10 does not scan.

Six, Cavil, or #7 may scan for #10.
#7 may detonate if he has been found (through attack, meaning no Night Kill) which has not occurred, or if Active Cylons are dead.

Detonation proves Six (Austin) and Cavil (Sean) dead, #10 not converted prior to last night, may have been found by #7.

Chaosraven wrote:#7 may detonate if he has been found (through attack, meaning no Night Kill) which has not occurred, or if Active Cylons are dead.

Detonation proves Six (Austin) and Cavil (Sean) dead, #10 not converted prior to last night, may have been found by #7.

Ahh, the ACTIVE cylons thing tripped me up.

So, its like I said before then, we may have one or two cylons left. Either way, both cylons have to be in this pool of 5:

Scoop20906 ---
Unagi ---
RevHempus ---
redrun ---
purge ---

Just a thought, why do we care if the two remaining specialists come out now?

Even if we get two players to claim specialist and they have a code to provide some proof, they still need to be scanned or killed since one of them could be Cylon #10.

Frankly, there is not much point to the specialist coming out now. They will still be unknowns until they are scanned or killed. I also think it could provide some harm as people may choose to ignore them and focus on other players.

Scoop20906 wrote:So, its like I said before then, we may have one or two cylons left. Either way, both cylons have to be in this pool of 5:

Scoop20906 ---
Unagi ---
RevHempus ---
redrun ---
purge ---

Correct.

Which is why it is imperative to whittle down that pool as much as possible today in the event #7 did not find #10 last night

Scoop20906 wrote:Just a thought, why do we care if the two remaining specialists come out now?

Even if we get two players to claim specialist and they have a code to provide some proof, they still need to be scanned or killed since one of them could be Cylon #10.

Frankly, there is not much point to the specialist coming out now. They will still be unknowns until they are scanned or killed. I also think it could provide some harm as people may choose to ignore them and focus on other players.

Any of the five of you could be #10, except Baltar (if one of you is Baltar).
If #10 has not yet been converted, we could win by eliminating #7 today.
If #10 has been converted, it doesn't matter either way for the "scan" or "lynch" as it returns to Free for All status minus Bakh, mipe, and Grund.

Chaosraven wrote:Which is why it is imperative to whittle down that pool as much as possible today in the event #7 did not find #10 last night

I am fine with whittling down the pool as long as everyone understands that since #10 is still alive, every unknown player must be killed or scanned human even if they claim a role and have some type of confirmation.

Chaosraven wrote:Any of the five of you could be #10, except Baltar (if one of you is Baltar).
If #10 has not yet been converted, we could win by eliminating #7 today.
If #10 has been converted, it doesn't matter either way for the "scan" or "lynch" as it returns to Free for All status minus Bakh, mipe, and Grund.

Baltar doesn't matter anymore as he is now firmly a good human and there is no way to tell who Baltar is unless Tory Foster announces it but we still can't trust that announcement since the cylons could fake it.

Also, one thing to point out, Chaos, if both of our specialists come forward, and the cylons kill them on consecutive nights, then we will be lynching blind after that.

Scoop20906 wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Any of the five of you could be #10, except Baltar (if one of you is Baltar).
If #10 has not yet been converted, we could win by eliminating #7 today.
If #10 has been converted, it doesn't matter either way for the "scan" or "lynch" as it returns to Free for All status minus Bakh, mipe, and Grund.

Baltar doesn't matter anymore as he is now firmly a good human and there is no way to tell who Baltar is unless Tory Foster announces it but we still can't trust that announcement since the cylons could fake it.

Also, one thing to point out, Chaos, if both of our specialists come forward, and the cylons kill them on consecutive nights, then we will be lynching blind after that.

I think if we get 1 more Chaos/Athena scan in - we should be OK, right?

We have 3 misses - is that correct still?

I am gonna guess that purge and Grund are the 2 specialists now...
Grund being the only one cleared as "human" (by Chaos).

Chaos, while I agree that we want to whittle down that pool, since #7 could have found #10 last night, technically that opens today up to as much confusion regarding a converted #10 as tomorrow. (but, yes - the more days that go by, their chances get better and better at finding #10.)

Good job on the Cylons part; taking out the two people who have proven themselves is an excellent play and makes it that much more difficult to determine who to trust.

As of last night, who did our "seer" scan?

Unagi wrote:

redrun wrote:
I agree about the specialists coming forward.

Ouch, does this mean you aren't one of the Specialist then?

-- I am not a specialist.

I think we should have at least one specialist come out, the problem is that they'll be tonights target.

purge wrote:I think we should have at least one specialist come out, the problem is that they'll be tonights target.

Ok, so how does that make any sense?

A) we already know that even if a special announces himself, he can not be proven unless Athena scans him human or we kill him.
B) if only one specialist comes out, he has no one to back up, so it proves nothing.
C) If we start getting our specialist killed then soon we will be lynching blind which might cause problems on the last days.

I am starting to really think the specialists should just stay quiet since they might not even been in the pool of unknowns either.

I guess I should probably try to catch up on the past 25+ pages, eh? I'll try to get to that right after work (late afternoon).

Preparing to analyze...

I'm Here. I'm not a specialist. I AM human. Thank, you Chaos for confirming me.

I'd like to see our specials out. I'm 90% sure we're down to 1 active cylon. Is there any problem with this scenario?

Six - Austin: Dead
Cavil - Sean: Dead
10 is alive and unactivated
This activated 7 who picked his kill last night and detonated his bomb.

A living Apollo really must come out today and give us any information he knows.

Scoop20906 wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Any of the five of you could be #10, except Baltar (if one of you is Baltar).
If #10 has not yet been converted, we could win by eliminating #7 today.
If #10 has been converted, it doesn't matter either way for the "scan" or "lynch" as it returns to Free for All status minus Bakh, mipe, and Grund.

Baltar doesn't matter anymore as he is now firmly a good human and there is no way to tell who Baltar is unless Tory Foster announces it but we still can't trust that announcement since the cylons could fake it.

Also, one thing to point out, Chaos, if both of our specialists come forward, and the cylons kill them on consecutive nights, then we will be lynching blind after that.

You imagine they will leave me alive?

In addition, if they kill 2 specialists they allow me 2 more scans and we still have Bakh, Grund, and mipe.

Math is on our side in that case.

9 - 1 = 8
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, Grund, mipe, and (new scan), with 2 unknown
7 - 1 = 6
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, Grund, mipe, Scan, and (new scan)... that's 6.

purge wrote:Good job on the Cylons part; taking out the two people who have proven themselves is an excellent play and makes it that much more difficult to determine who to trust.

As of last night, who did our "seer" scan?

Grund Night 1 - Human
Austin Night 2 - Six
Bakhtosh Night 3 - Human

Vote Analysis:

Human or Known Good
Chaosraven --- ATHENA
Grundbegriff --- HUMAN
mipe --- HUMAN
Bakhtosh --- HUMAN
---------------------------------------------
Unknown
Scoop20906 ---
Unagi ---
RevHempus ---
redrun ---
purge ---

5 votes to Lynch

4 Human or Good Votes
1 or 2 cylon votes
4 or 5 Unknown votes

Analysis: I think the cylon player/players are going to be very careful about placing their votes and they don't want to expose themselves to too much attention. If Cylon #7 is on his own then he needs to keep a low profile until he can locate and activate Cylon #10.

Chaosraven wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Any of the five of you could be #10, except Baltar (if one of you is Baltar).
If #10 has not yet been converted, we could win by eliminating #7 today.
If #10 has been converted, it doesn't matter either way for the "scan" or "lynch" as it returns to Free for All status minus Bakh, mipe, and Grund.

Baltar doesn't matter anymore as he is now firmly a good human and there is no way to tell who Baltar is unless Tory Foster announces it but we still can't trust that announcement since the cylons could fake it.

Also, one thing to point out, Chaos, if both of our specialists come forward, and the cylons kill them on consecutive nights, then we will be lynching blind after that.

You imagine they will leave me alive?

In addition, if they kill 2 specialists they allow me 2 more scans and we still have Bakh, Grund, and mipe.

Math is on our side in that case.

9 - 1 = 8
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, Grund, mipe, and (new scan), with 2 unknown
7 - 1 = 6
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, Grund, mipe, Scan, and (new scan)... that's 6.

In the event Grund is one of the Spec -
9 - 1 = 8
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, mipe, and (new scan), with 3 unknown
7 - 1 = 6
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, mipe, Scan, and (new scan)... the remaining 1 is unknown.

Chaosraven wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Any of the five of you could be #10, except Baltar (if one of you is Baltar).
If #10 has not yet been converted, we could win by eliminating #7 today.
If #10 has been converted, it doesn't matter either way for the "scan" or "lynch" as it returns to Free for All status minus Bakh, mipe, and Grund.

Baltar doesn't matter anymore as he is now firmly a good human and there is no way to tell who Baltar is unless Tory Foster announces it but we still can't trust that announcement since the cylons could fake it.

Also, one thing to point out, Chaos, if both of our specialists come forward, and the cylons kill them on consecutive nights, then we will be lynching blind after that.

You imagine they will leave me alive?

In addition, if they kill 2 specialists they allow me 2 more scans and we still have Bakh, Grund, and mipe.

Math is on our side in that case.

9 - 1 = 8
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, Grund, mipe, and (new scan), with 2 unknown
7 - 1 = 6
Kill Specialist, leaving CR, Bakh, Grund, mipe, Scan, and (new scan)... that's 6.

I don't plan on openly discussing Athena's survival.

Scoop20906 wrote:

purge wrote:I think we should have at least one specialist come out, the problem is that they'll be tonights target.

Ok, so how does that make any sense?

A) we already know that even if a special announces himself, he can not be proven unless Athena scans him human or we kill him.
B) if only one specialist comes out, he has no one to back up, so it proves nothing.
C) If we start getting our specialist killed then soon we will be lynching blind which might cause problems on the last days.

I am starting to really think the specialists should just stay quiet since they might not even been in the pool of unknowns either.

The specialist should both come out.
PERIOD.

I see no reason they shouldn't. (I am presuming the Cylon(s) are not idiots)

The Specialists cannot be #7, and right now we may as well consider this a day where we are looking for #7.

Yes, #10 could be any "non-proven-Human" (i.e. Purge the Specialist) , and yes #10 could have been 'Engaged' last night by #7 already.

We should narrow our search down.

Clearly the Specialists are Purge and Grund, as Remus said they were both alive - and everyone else has said they are not a Specialist.
I mean, right?

Scoop20906 wrote:Also, one thing to point out, Chaos, if both of our specialists come forward, and the cylons kill them on consecutive nights, then we will be lynching blind after that.

Baltar is perhaps still out there too, and he would count as a specialist for the purpose of performing our autopsies.


Also, keep in mind that if we do get this down to just 1 cylon - lynching blind is a moot point (game ends, or game doesn't end - that's your autopsy)

I'm 85% sure that Grund is athena. I'm almost 100% sure that Six is dead (will not tell why), and it would be a F'ing big gamble for a cylon sacrifice their main-cylon just to assure others that they are athena.

Call for Specialists:

Chaosraven --- not a Spec: I believe outing today is the best choice
Grundbegriff ---
mipe --- And we can't even trust the Specialists that come out today.
Bakhtosh --- not a Spec: I'd like to see our specials out.

Scoop20906 --- not a Spec: I agree that the two specialist must come out.
Unagi --- not a Spec: Obviously, we need the 2 other specialist to come forward and get themselves "trusted".
RevHempus ---
redrun --- not a Spec: I agree about the specialists coming forward.
purge --- I think we should have at least one specialist come out

There are 4 (I believe) who have not made the claim either way.
Grund, mipe, RevH, Purge

mipe wrote:I'm 85% sure that Grund is athena. I'm almost 100% sure that Six is dead (will not tell why), and it would be a F'ing big gamble for a cylon sacrifice their main-cylon just to assure others that they are athena.

???

mipe wrote:I'm 85% sure that Grund is athena. I'm almost 100% sure that Six is dead (will not tell why), and it would be a F'ing big gamble for a cylon sacrifice their main-cylon just to assure others that they are athena.

What are you talking about.

As long as every realizes the drawback to the specialists coming out, namely:

A) If an unknown claims specialist, the can still be activated and turn into #10.

Even if Purge says "I'm a specialist" and Grund says, "Yep, I am a specialist and I confirm Purge", then Purge is still an unknown and must be scanned or killed.

And, I just noticed that Baltar will take over autopsy if both specialists are killed (but we lose one day in between). This could create an interesting scenario (which Lassr handled wisely) where if Grund and Purge announce they are specialists and Grund is killed and on the same night Purge is activated then we will not get a autopsy that night and then Baltar will take over autopies the next night.

Scoop20906 wrote:As long as every realizes the drawback to the specialists coming out, namely:

A) If an unknown claims specialist, the can still be activated and turn into #10.

Even if Purge says "I'm a specialist" and Grund says, "Yep, I am a specialist and I confirm Purge", then Purge is still an unknown and must be scanned or killed.

And, I just noticed that Baltar will take over autopsy if both specialists are killed (but we lose one day in between). This could create an interesting scenario (which Lassr handled wisely) where if Grund and Purge announce they are specialists and Grund is killed and on the same night Purge is activated then we will not get a autopsy that night and then Baltar will take over autopies the next night.

Autopsies are a day event.

Not sure what you mean - but um yeah.

Unagi wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:Also, one thing to point out, Chaos, if both of our specialists come forward, and the cylons kill them on consecutive nights, then we will be lynching blind after that.

Baltar is perhaps still out there too, and he would count as a specialist for the purpose of performing our autopsies.


Also, keep in mind that if we do get this down to just 1 cylon - lynching blind is a moot point (game ends, or game doesn't end - that's your autopsy)

Unagi wrote:Yes, #10 could be any "non-proven-Human" (i.e. Purge the Specialist) , and yes #10 could have been 'Engaged' last night by #7 already.

Unagi wrote:Autopsies are a day event.

Not sure what you mean - but um yeah.

Correct, I meant the next day.

And yes, Unagi, I saw your post about Baltar after I finished mine. Credit should go to you there too.

Well, I don't see there is much more to discuss, at least for me.

We have 5 unknowns and I don't think the vote I have already placed on Rev will change based on the specialists coming out. (I'm pretty much ignoring Mipe's lastest post)

The rest rests on the rest of you. (Hmm, I like the way that sounded)

I'll be in my bunk...

Scoop wrote:Grund is killed and on the same night Purge is activated then we will not get a autopsy that night and then Baltar will take over autopies the next night.

I don't follow that.

Why would there be a gap in autopsies?

Baltar is always a 'specialist', right?

Scoop20906 wrote:As long as every realizes the drawback to the specialists coming out, namely:

A) If an unknown claims specialist, the can still be activated and turn into #10.

Even if Purge says "I'm a specialist" and Grund says, "Yep, I am a specialist and I confirm Purge", then Purge is still an unknown and must be scanned or killed.

And, I just noticed that Baltar will take over autopsy if both specialists are killed (but we lose one day in between). This could create an interesting scenario (which Lassr handled wisely) where if Grund and Purge announce they are specialists and Grund is killed and on the same night Purge is activated then we will not get a autopsy that night and then Baltar will take over autopies the next night.

Whoa there son. Who's to say you need to test your specialist before the other unknowns? (even removing myself from that post and submitting anyone else).

The cylons did not attack Chaosraven last night for one of two reasons.

1) They had two viable targets that have proven themselves and since Chaos would have been protected last night they decided not to kill him

2) Chaosraven is a Cylon and is playing us all. 7 knows who the other cylons are (correct?) so he could point to anyone he wanted to. He may have thrown 6 under the bus to gain the trust to lead to a new version of Remucide, where we all end up being Chaospiper'd.