Octopus Overlords

triggercut wrote:

pr0ner wrote:Grund has also laid low before when he's been a wolf. I don't think there's any rhyme or reason to him laying low.

I don't specifically remember him doing so, but it makes sense and I can't say you're wrong.

bb, like a carpenter, reckons I'm pegged--
A game or three and the question's begged.
But the truth lies northward by many a mile:
Like China's wall, I have no stile.

El Guapo wrote:

triggercut wrote: Regarding Grundbegriff--and here my memory's hazy--but the last time he laid low like this it was because he was a goodguy special and was flying under the radar.

Pretty sure (per earlier discussions) that Grund is almost always completely silent on day 1. Kind of annoying, but as a result not particularly probative on wolfitude.

Not in days of yore!
I was chatty to the core!
Now I'm noetic
Ere waxing poetic.

triggercut wrote:So...wait. 17 players. 9 needed to swing someone.
Only 12 people have a registered vote on this update, so of the 12 people putting a hat in the ring, they need 9 to agree.
That's going to be tough to do!

Hey!
"They"?

Lagom Lite wrote:Right, ok, I've been thinking about this thing, and I think the villagers need some kind of anchor today.

I'm rather glad you showed your face.
Something must be held in place!

Unagi wrote:

Newcastle wrote:

Unagi wrote:writing good haikus
is not something we do well
but I am better

needs to be 5-7-5, w/ a nature reference thrown in.

writing good haikus
is not something we do well
I am better, tree.

Lagom Lite wrote:

Remus West wrote:I also don't like revealing Holman's identity as that knowledge could have been used and was not in danger of being lost to the village.

How could Holman's identity have been used?

Remus is right. Time to save face.
Holman's ID was a plum hiding place.
Someone quite good but in need of protection
Could feign ambiguity's sallow complexion.

Lassr wrote:Not like someone was going to fake the sorcerer and now we do not have to worry about him jumping on an N-1 vote.

Don't be a dunce!
I've done it more than once.
Don't be naive;
Other actors thieve.

Grundbegriff wrote:

triggercut wrote:Only in a game against Grund can me being swamped with work and away be construed as me being "active" here!

"Against," you sensed?
Heavens Murgatroydian!
Condensed: a slip Freudian!

Grundbegriff wrote:

triggercut wrote:So...wait. 17 players. 9 needed to swing someone.
Only 12 people have a registered vote on this update, so of the 12 people putting a hat in the ring, they need 9 to agree.
That's going to be tough to do!

Hey!
"They"?

 triggercut 
 

Shown Good:
Newcastle (villager, if that's the topic)
Shown Broomed:
Holman (warlock with a broken wand)
Shown Evil:
Bakhtosh (dreadfully lycanthropic)
Costumed:
Lagom Lit' (of whom two more are fond)

inter alia:
Grundbegriff (a humble peasant)
tru1cy (seeming rather pleasant)
Lassr (acting like a yeoman)
pr0ner (toting like a Roman)
RMC (a seasoned thinker)
Qantaga (with the dead doth tinker)
The Cabal (Lagom standing tall,
Two drawn from among them all:
{ redrun, pr0ner, Lassr,
tru1cy, U, RMC,
bb, Q, and theohall }
Of these 9, if truth be told,
Scooper and Unagi hold. (Or maybe Lassr, oversold?) )

Evil ways, it seems to me,
Mark triggercut, Vorret, E.G.
redrun, purge, tru-- they're dodgy, too.
But not as evil through and through.
They, 'hall, and bb work the land.
Crystal ball in Raven's hand.

Game is so much more interesting when you play  withdraw grundbegriff 
 

Q, I'm ready to give up convincing you, but I'm going to try one last time. If you are not convinced after this, then I will have to concede we are not going to agree. We will just have to agree to disagree.

If the Cabal reveal themselves now we gain 3 trusteds (4 if the mentalist also reveals). If the wolves start ripping through the Cabal we lose one trusted a night. Seer scans, we either replace that trusted, or get a wolf. With 19 players and 3 wolves, odds are more than likely we will get 3 more trusteds and not wolves. Sure, sure, this is where instinct and data sifting come in to play, so the odds are potentially higher to nail a wolf than straight mathematics would suggest, but really, by how much? Probably not significantly (unless Unagi is the seer). Anyway, that is a tangent. In all likely hood, by revealing now, we are trading one trusted for another when the wolves start killing them and the seer scans. This is not a net gain for the village.

Now let's explore the wait option. I am going to assume NC was a villager. That would leave us with 9 villagers and 7 specials. The wolves have one special in hand with LL. for the sake of argument, and time, let's just say that he didn't reveal. So the wolves have 16 people to sift through to nail a special, and a better than even chance of not getting one at all. If the Cabal can survive, and if the seer survives, we can start gaining trusteds with the seer's scans rather than trading them one for one in the night.

We can wait a couple days before they come out and hopefully have a much greater total trusted pool.

tru1cy wrote:Game is so much more interesting when you play  withdraw grundbegriff 
 

+1

I don't like LL's good guy list cause I'm certain that a wolf or two could be found within and if I had a say I would vote no for the Cabal and Mentalist to step forward. I understand Qantaga's position, but I think the village would be better served not to reveal much at the stage.


Probably a little jaded from last game, but I'm not jumping on that Purge vote... Seems a bit to easy and certainly like a set up.


pr0ner dogged pursuit of Bakhtosh warrants some attention. It appeared to me like he knew something after the vote progressed. So why didn't the wolf pack go after him, but instead nabbed newcastle?

tru1cy wrote:pr0ner dogged pursuit of Bakhtosh warrants some attention. It appeared to me like he knew something after the vote progressed. So why didn't the wolf pack go after him, but instead nabbed newcastle?

I don't know, he pushed really hard for a quick lynch before the deadline I don't see why he'd risk that on a wolf buddy.

Vorret wrote:

tru1cy wrote:pr0ner dogged pursuit of Bakhtosh warrants some attention. It appeared to me like he knew something after the vote progressed. So why didn't the wolf pack go after him, but instead nabbed newcastle?

I don't know, he pushed really hard for a quick lynch before the deadline I don't see why he'd risk that on a wolf buddy.

give himself cover? Seen it before... I don't know I just find it odd.

Day 2 Vote Count
Votes required for lynch - 10

Against purge (3) - LordMortis, Unagi, pr0ner
Against trig (3) - Scoop20906, redrun, Grundbegriff
Against Remus (2) - Lagom, Vorret
Against Scoop (1) - Lassr
Against Chaosraven (1) - theohall

No votes (9) - Remus West, Qantaga, RMC, purge, bb2112, Chaosraven, triggercut, El Guapo, tru1cy

There are 16 villagers alive. The deadline for the lynch vote is June 20th at 9am Eastern time.

triggercut wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Trig, you are the guy that likes to decipher vote trains. You got any thoughts on baktosh's train?

I'm of two minds. I think that almost certainly Bak had teammates voting for him.

The question to my mind is where.

I see two scenarios.

Scenario 1: Wolf votes for Bakh early on, just for goofing. Vote train takes off. Wolf realizes if he pulls vote, it'll light him up as suspicious if/when Bakh swings and comes back furry.

Scenario 2: Wolf jumps on Bakh train with a "Sorry dude, I want on this." I see that as more likely. That's why I'd have been all over Newc.

What's odd is that I see scenario 2 as being very likely...but also...they killed Newcastle, who was the final vote. Follow me here, then. If we think there's a reasonable chance that Scenario 2 happened, then we look at the last 6 votes on Bakh and can feel fairly confident that at least one of that sextet is a Wolf teammate.

They clearly figured Newcastle's actions to be Seer-ish, I'm guessing. In offing him, though, they narrowed that pool of six down to five: Scoop, tru1cy, Vorret, LM, Remus.

No guarantees, but that's the pool I'd be fishing today. Of that list, only tru1cy is on Lagom's Potential Goodguy list.

So, pik 'em:

Scoop
Vorret
LM
Remus

I kind of like LM or Vorret here, but can be talked into Remus or Scoop.

If we agree to being force into the the LL's good/bad list I agree with sentiment that this is the place to look, though I obviously I don't agree with me being evil. The good news is I like Vorret as a choice.

I also concur that the wolves probably think newcastle was seerish when they knew holman was the sorcerer.

But I also see scenario three as one not to forget. Bakhtosh was intentionally thrown under the bus. It's not a scenario I'd pursue this early in the game but it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

I'd also like to note for my later thinking that it's interesting you challenged people for not voting on Day 1 and then didn't vote on Day 1. Perhaps you didn't want to jump on Bakhtosh late and be thought of as a prime suspect for day 2?

theohall wrote:Fine.

 Chaosraven 
 

Wow.

Hot to cold:

purge or bb2112
theo
tru1cy
vorret
lassr
Trig???
Grund no idea what's up which is how I am sure he likes it
Guapo's getting sneaky
RMC is fading to the background
Remus is playing poorly which is generally a sign of good remus who doesn't really care about the game but he really seems to be trying to move the village to dark places.

The field

LL
lordmortis

tru1cy wrote:

Vorret wrote:

tru1cy wrote:pr0ner dogged pursuit of Bakhtosh warrants some attention. It appeared to me like he knew something after the vote progressed. So why didn't the wolf pack go after him, but instead nabbed newcastle?

I don't know, he pushed really hard for a quick lynch before the deadline I don't see why he'd risk that on a wolf buddy.

give himself cover? Seen it before... I don't know I just find it odd.

While I agree that it's possible that pr0ner would tacticly give an early vote to Bakhtosh to give himself cover, I don't think he pursued Bakhtosh and would have gone after purge just as easily on day one. He went with the wind that agreed with his sentiment that you find someone and kill them quick, preferably someone not not present.

It's an idea that should not be forgotten but not one that I'd think about pursing this early.

Grundbegriff wrote:

Lassr wrote:Not like someone was going to fake the sorcerer and now we do not have to worry about him jumping on an N-1 vote.

Don't be a dunce!
I've done it more than once.
Don't be naive;
Other actors thieve.

that point I conceded
my thoughts were impeded
a delayed reveal
would have had some appeal

tru1cy wrote:

Vorret wrote:

tru1cy wrote:pr0ner dogged pursuit of Bakhtosh warrants some attention. It appeared to me like he knew something after the vote progressed. So why didn't the wolf pack go after him, but instead nabbed newcastle?

I don't know, he pushed really hard for a quick lynch before the deadline I don't see why he'd risk that on a wolf buddy.

give himself cover? Seen it before... I don't know I just find it odd.

Possible, but seems unlikely here. I'd think he'd be at least a little less dogged about Bakhtosh if he were a wolf, plus his frustration over delays seemed pretty genuine (and human). I guess it could be "let's just get this over with already" wolf frustration. I wouldn't rule that out, but overall I'm pretty confident that pr0ner is human.

Current count of Village:
3 Cabal
1 Medium
1 Werewolf Hunter
1 Mentalist
1 Seer w/2 scans in hand

If there is no overlap between scans and Specials (or dead) then we have a block of 9 out of the 19 remaining players. Even if we lose one of the group as long as it is not the Seer then odds say we gain another (rather than find a wolf) via the scan and we will be at 9 of 17 tomorrow. A lock position on the game.

So, since I can not convince you people to come out on your own and every time I bring it up folks get all stupid about it........

I am the Seer.
Chaosraven was my first scan. He is a villager.
purge was my second scan. He is a villager.

Both scans are outside of Lagom Lite's "good guys" list so are certain to not be Cabal or Mentalist. Hopefully neither is the Hunter or Medium. Give me protection tonight and I will try again to find another villager rather than a wolf since finding a single wolf won't give us the game while finding another villager will.

I scanned Chaosraven because I wanted to see where I stood with regards to him. My original plan was to scan my way through the Detroit crew. I changed that after we lynched Bahktosh and he turned up to be a wolf. I figured the odds of us going after another silent were low, figured the wolves would not kill them, and I did not want one left at the end that we had no information regarding thus since it seemed likely purge would be the least active I chose him for scan number 2.

Well that's something. It does seem like we're on the verge of winning the game, especially if Remus is telling the truth. If people agree that we should lay our cards on the table (which intuitively I'm inclined to, though I'd want to give that some more thought) I'm happy to reveal my role.

El Guapo wrote:Well that's something. It does seem like we're on the verge of winning the game, especially if Remus is telling the truth. If people agree that we should lay our cards on the table (which intuitively I'm inclined to, though I'd want to give that some more thought) I'm happy to reveal my role.

Only hurdle I see to it is the Beserker Wolf but even if he gets to go off it won't matter after today. So if we are really worried about that then we go ahead and shoot someone and then lynch a volunteer villager just to assure our numbers superiority for the rest of the game. Doing that puts us at 16 tomorrow with 9 known so if we lynch the Berserker after that we will be at half the group trusted regardless.

Oh, also, because I'm sure people will be worried about it, I suggest that the medium prove themselves by contacting Newcastle. We know he wasn't the sorcerer thanks to the Cabal so he will be trustworthy in his role/no role claim.

Remus West wrote:Current count of Village:
3 Cabal
1 Medium
1 Werewolf Hunter
1 Mentalist
1 Seer w/2 scans in hand

If there is no overlap between scans and Specials (or dead) then we have a block of 9 out of the 19 remaining players. Even if we lose one of the group as long as it is not the Seer then odds say we gain another (rather than find a wolf) via the scan and we will be at 9 of 17 tomorrow. A lock position on the game.

So, since I can not convince you people to come out on your own and every time I bring it up folks get all stupid about it........

I am the Seer.
Chaosraven was my first scan. He is a villager.
purge was my second scan. He is a villager.

Both scans are outside of Lagom Lite's "good guys" list so are certain to not be Cabal or Mentalist. Hopefully neither is the Hunter or Medium. Give me protection tonight and I will try again to find another villager rather than a wolf since finding a single wolf won't give us the game while finding another villager will.

I scanned Chaosraven because I wanted to see where I stood with regards to him. My original plan was to scan my way through the Detroit crew. I changed that after we lynched Bahktosh and he turned up to be a wolf. I figured the odds of us going after another silent were low, figured the wolves would not kill them, and I did not want one left at the end that we had no information regarding thus since it seemed likely purge would be the least active I chose him for scan number 2.

Well, I suppose we can give you until tomorrow to find out if you are lying, assuming that cabal scan newcastle tonight or if there is an objection today. For once we have a recourse other than trial by fire.

 remove purge
Vorret 
 


Looks like the most narrow choice today is me, Vorret, or Scoop among the voters from yesterday where I suspect one wolf is hiding.

Assuming Remus is true which will be proven by tomorrow one way or another

Hot to cold:

bb2112
vorret
theo
tru1cy
lassr
Trig???
Grund no idea what's up which is how I am sure he likes it
Guapo's getting sneaky
RMC is fading to the background
Scoop


The field

LL
chaosraven
purge
Remus West
lordmortis

 withdraw purge 
 

Remus West wrote:Oh, also, because I'm sure people will be worried about it, I suggest that the medium prove themselves by contacting Newcastle. We know he wasn't the sorcerer thanks to the Cabal so he will be trustworthy in his role/no role claim.

The way I see it you will either be contested today or Newcastle will be proven to the Seer tomorrow. If you are the seer then

Seer receives a vision
Cabalists examine the deceased (if desired)
Werewolves make their kill

I'd rather the medium get a last scan result from you after you die but that's me.

Or was Newcastle the Seer, and Remus is using this one trick pony to get us to off someone and throw doubt on others.

And what about El Guapo coming out with I'll show mine... <sigh>

The wolves get the role when they kill the person, right?

 withdraw Remus West 
 


So if I read this right you want a villager volunteer to be lynched today ? Or I read that wrong?

RMC wrote:Or was Newcastle the Seer, and Remus is using this one trick pony to get us to off someone and throw doubt on others.

And what about El Guapo coming out with I'll show mine... <sigh>

The wolves get the role when they kill the person, right?

Shouldn't we have the medium contact Newcastle then? If Newcastle comes back as the Seer, then we lynch Remus (that's spectacularly unlikely, as for that reason it would be a super boneheaded move for the wolves to do this as a ploy). If Newcastle is not the seer, then we know that the seer is still in play.

The tougher question is what does the true seer do if Remus is not the seer. The danger is more that a wolf Remus is trying to draw the seer out. Although already down a wolf with a large number of proven and/or provable villagers sacrificing a wolf seems risky.

Well shit... Remus West..

I hate mass outing as I think they ruin the spirit of the game


Would like to see how this plays out now

El Guapo wrote:

RMC wrote:Or was Newcastle the Seer, and Remus is using this one trick pony to get us to off someone and throw doubt on others.

And what about El Guapo coming out with I'll show mine... <sigh>

The wolves get the role when they kill the person, right?

Shouldn't we have the medium contact Newcastle then? If Newcastle comes back as the Seer, then we lynch Remus (that's spectacularly unlikely, as for that reason it would be a super boneheaded move for the wolves to do this as a ploy). If Newcastle is not the seer, then we know that the seer is still in play.

The tougher question is what does the true seer do if Remus is not the seer. The danger is more that a wolf Remus is trying to draw the seer out. Although already down a wolf with a large number of proven and/or provable villagers sacrificing a wolf seems risky.

I agree that this is not most likely the case, because the best they can do is kill one person before we get a wolf(if Remus is a wolf). But this could very well be a hail mary by the wolves.

Remus is good enough to pull off something like this and get a few more people if leveraged correctly. How exactly..Well I am not that good, but I am sure someone could do it.

So I just felt like throwing out the possibility, not that it is likely.

I was going to suggest myself but then I realize it's stupid since LM will think I'm the Beserker...

I like the medium idea, we know now what's up instead of tomorrow.

Medium
•The Medium can, once a game, hold a séance.
◦In order for a séance to occur, a majority of the village has to vote for it for a particular player, and the player being voted on has to be dead(obviously).
◦In addition, the Medium must also vote for the séance to occur for that player.
◦The moderator will announce to the village who the Medium is when the séance occurs.

So I'm gonna start

 Séance Newcastle 
 


Am I doing this right?

RMC wrote:Or was Newcastle the Seer, and Remus is using this one trick pony to get us to off someone and throw doubt on others.

And what about El Guapo coming out with I'll show mine... <sigh>

The wolves get the role when they kill the person, right?

If newcastle is the seer, we'll know tomorrow and Remus will be outed. That totally works for me.

Vorret wrote:So I'm gonna start

 Séance Newcastle 
 


Am I doing this right?

If you are asking the Medium to seance Newcastle, yes.

El Guapo wrote:The tougher question is what does the true seer do if Remus is not the seer. The danger is more that a wolf Remus is trying to draw the seer out. Although already down a wolf with a large number of proven and/or provable villagers sacrificing a wolf seems risky.

He comes out and we lynch one or the other today.

Remus West wrote:Oh, also, because I'm sure people will be worried about it, I suggest that the medium prove themselves by contacting Newcastle. We know he wasn't the sorcerer thanks to the Cabal so he will be trustworthy in his role/no role claim.

Wouldn't it be better to save the Medium for when the wolves kill RemusSeer? That would give us one additional scan.

The Cabal will tell us tomorrow if Newcastle was the Seer or not.

If it's a numbers thing and the proven Medium would help Remus lock down the game, then by all means. But, the best use of the Medium would be to grab one final scan from the dead Seer.

Speaking of mass outings. If the hunter which is provable or the medium which is provable come out and are not chaosraven or purge that would put the village at 9 knowns. 7 if they happen bet purge and chaosraven...

Qantaga wrote:

Remus West wrote:Oh, also, because I'm sure people will be worried about it, I suggest that the medium prove themselves by contacting Newcastle. We know he wasn't the sorcerer thanks to the Cabal so he will be trustworthy in his role/no role claim.

Wouldn't it be better to save the Medium for when the wolves kill RemusSeer? That would give us one additional scan.

The Cabal will tell us tomorrow if Newcastle was the Seer or not.

If it's a numbers thing and the proven Medium would help Remus lock down the game, then by all means. But, the best use of the Medium would be to grab one final scan from the dead Seer.