Justice League Loses... VILLAINS WIN

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:57 pm

Yeah, I really am Green Lantern. Once again, lynch Grund next. RMC came out and asked us to lynch him...he couldn't know anyone else would come forward. RMC is a good guy and Grund is evil. Lynch Grund next.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:45 pm

Sounds like a plan.

stessier

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:47 pm

Ready...AIM...

Accuse Stessier

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:48 pm

Unofficial Vote Count

PLAYERS
(0) El Guapo
(0) Scoop20906
(0) Remus West
(0) RMC
(0) Grundbegriff
(4) Stessier - scoop20906, stessier, grundbegriff, El Guapo, Scoop20906

Six remain
Majority is 4

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:49 am

PLAYERS
(0) El Guapo
(0) Scoop20906
(0) Remus West
(0) RMC
(0) Grundbegriff
(4) Stessier - scoop20906, stessier, grundbegriff, El Guapo, Scoop20906

Six remain
Majority is 4

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:53 am

The Heroes beat stessier down.
stessier was a HERO

IT IS NOW NIGHT.
PLAYERS WITH NIGHT ORDERS, PLEASE GET THEM IN.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:04 am

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:19 am

Oh sh*t

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:56 am

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:01 am

No wonder he was so strident.

So it's RMC.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:03 am

Nice job Grund. No kill tonight and you claim they attacked you which is BS. Then there are two of you. Well done.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:14 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Nice job Grund. No kill tonight and you claim they attacked you which is BS. Then there are two of you. Well done.

I'm assuming they won't attack me, since I cannot be killed on first attack.
Where you're wrong is with the conversion biz. If Chaosraven has told us truly that there can only be four powered superheroes (Shazam, Dr. Fate, Green Lantern, Elongated Man), then there's no way for RMC to be RR. Hence, nobody to convert and nobody outside RMC to do any converting.

We'll have a death tonight, unless I'm missing some wrinkle in the rules.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:45 am

Right... So you are saying someone will die tonight?

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:45 am

Because if there is no kill it means you are lying about your role.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:03 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Because if there is no kill it means you are lying about your role.

Which means that if he's lying he won't attack RMC. He'll probably attack you, then cite the death as reason to lynch RMC.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:04 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Because if there is no kill it means you are lying about your role.

No. If there's no kill, it means that RMC's hail Mary move was to attack me, knowing I'm invulnerable, in a hopefully futile attempt to frame me.

So the events of the night prove nothing either way. That's why I assume RMC will kill someone to make progress rather than dawdle.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:07 am

If y'all talk yourselves into the immovable idea that I'm the badguy, we're going to lose. I really am Elongated Man.

There are worse things than losing a werewolf game, but it'll be sad since we don't have to.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:08 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:Because if there is no kill it means you are lying about your role.
No. If there's no kill, it means that RMC's hail Mary move was to attack me, knowing I'm invulnerable, in a hopefully futile attempt to frame me.

So the events of the night prove nothing either way. That's why I assume RMC will kill someone to make progress rather than dawdle.

Or you will kill someone else to frame me. Not sure why team evil wouldn't convert me, as it would win them the game, right?

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:12 am

Man. We should have stuck with killing RMC. That was the smart move.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:13 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Man. We should have stuck with killing RMC. That was the smart move.

While this statement disturbs me to no end, it is most likely the truth. Which is what my move would have been. Just sayin.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:42 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Man. We should have stuck with killing RMC. That was the smart move.

As long as there's a hard cap of 4 heroes, it doesn't matter. You've been confirmed in public by the mod as Shazam Isis Hour. Isgrimnur is confirmed as Dr Fate by the fact that you reported intel from him that panned out when we acted on it. stessier has now been confirmed as good, leaving us no reason to doubt his identity as Green Flashlight. And I'm Elongated Man. That's four.

Unless there's some mechanism in the rules whereby a fifth good Special can arise, there's no room for a Red Rocket and thus no risk of a conversion.

That's why I laid out all the combinations of hero counts and villain counts and asked Chaosraven to confirm that we were looking at one of those and not some other count(s).

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:51 am

RMC wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:Because if there is no kill it means you are lying about your role.
No. If there's no kill, it means that RMC's hail Mary move was to attack me, knowing I'm invulnerable, in a hopefully futile attempt to frame me.
So the events of the night prove nothing either way. That's why I assume RMC will kill someone to make progress rather than dawdle.
Or you will kill someone else to frame me. Not sure why team evil wouldn't convert me, as it would win them the game, right?

I lack the ability to kill; I have only the ability to stretch.
Unless Chaosraven misled us about the number of good Specials, it's impossible for you to be RR. So you must be the final villain and a liar.

It's over tomorrow anyhow. Here are the logically possible scenarios from the perspective of a third party:

If there's no death tonight, one of two things has happened:
I'm evil and I converted you.
You're evil and attacked me.
Either way, killing you tomorrow nails a bad guy.

If there's a death tonight, one of two things has happened:
I'm evil and killed someone rather than gain a convert.
You're evil and killed someone because conversion is impossible.
Killing you may or may not nail a bad guy; killing me may or may not nail a bad guy..

You see, if there's no death tonight, then there's absolutely no reason not to kill you tomorrow; you're definitely evil on both no-death scenarios.
This is why I suppose you'll kill tonight; it's only by having a night-death than ambiguity about your survival can be sustained.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:52 am

That's what you said about stessier too.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:53 am

Scoop20906 wrote:That's what you said about stessier too.

Not really. I said that conversion was impossible, and so it didn't matter which one went first as long is it was those two in succession. That was true then, and it's still true.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:55 am

This is still 100% accurate.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:49 pm

A NEW DAY DAWNS OVER JUSTICE LEAGUE HEADQUARTERS

MEANWHILE BACK AT... UH... OVER AT... UMM

UNDER THE NEW DAY IN JUSTICE LEAGUE HEADQUARTERS the team finds REMUS WEST murdered in the night.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:50 pm

PLAYERS
(0) El Guapo
(0) Scoop20906
(0) RMC
(0) Grundbegriff

Four remain
Majority is 3

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:52 pm

Ok, El Guapo and Scoop. It's on you.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:55 pm

Jeez.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:54 pm

Vorret - Riddler
Moliere - Sinestro
?? - ??

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:11 pm

If RMC is Red Rocket, the final villain (Grund) could have attacked/converted him last night. That would have led to:

El Guapo
Scoop20906
Remus West
RMC
Grundbegriff

HHHVV
Day -1 V
Night -1 H
Day 2 -1 V - Game over

Conclusion - Evil could not win this way.

-------
If Grund is Elongated Man, the final villain (RMC) would not have attacked Grund as this would been a miss which would have lead to:

El Guapo
Scoop20906
Remus West
RMC
Grundbegriff

H H H PV PV
Day -1 PV
Night -1 H
Day 2 -1 PV - Game over

-------
Instead today we have ...

El Guapo
Scoop20906
RMC
Grundbegriff

H H PV PV
Day -1 PV
Night -1 H - Game Over
If we miss today it is game over.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:17 pm

Are there any villain powers left that could affect today/tonight?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:54 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:Are there any villain powers left that could affect today/tonight?

I don't think so. I was trying to see if Parasite could crab an ability that might monkey things up, but I don't think any of the powers in the game could change the outcome here.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:13 pm

So I'm trying to figure out why myself or you weren't targeted. Any ideas? Remus seemed to support Grund's claim.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:17 pm

Question: was RMC's claim as Red Rocket (a convertable role) genius? He had no idea there was another hero unless he was Brainiac or he was riddler and scanned Grund. If he did scan Grund he'd know he couldn't attack him. So if he knew Grund was EM then he claimed a role knowing it would be challenged by Grund.

That's the only way I could see him claiming a role that required us to kill him before we would kill stessier.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:19 am

Scoop20906 wrote:Question: was RMC's claim as Red Rocket (a convertable role) genius? He had no idea there was another hero unless he was Brainiac or he was riddler and scanned Grund. If he did scan Grund he'd know he couldn't attack him. So if he knew Grund was EM then he claimed a role knowing it would be challenged by Grund.

That's the only way I could see him claiming a role that required us to kill him before we would kill stessier.

Riddler is (was) in the game - that was Vorret's role. He only had one morning to ask question(s), so it seems highly unlikely (but not impossible) that the villains would know a hero Grund's role from that. However, we do need to remember that we do not (unless I am missing something) know the role of the final villain - it could easily be Lex, so they could know hero roles from him.

What helps RMC's claim substantially is that Red Rocket would be such a bizarre role to spoof in his position. Note that when he came out, there was an open hero slot, and no way that I can see from the villain's perspective to know what other hero (if any) might be in the game. So, if a villain RMC claims Red Rocket, he could be countered by a real Red Rocket. Note that this is NOT true for a villain Grund, since he waited until after RMC came out - because all the hero spots are filled at that point, he can pick any non-provable role that he wants without fear of being countered. He also would know that we don't have a scanner that could contest it.

Also note that while the villains had unique access to RevHempus's role via Riddler, Rev could not have been either Red Rocket or Elongated Man, since neither could have been killed night 0 (except via Sinestro, but we know via the dearly departed stessier that Sinestro didn't use his charges until shortly before his demise).

I will say if RMC is spoofing, he did a really masterful job yesterday.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:31 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:Of course and if you were waiting to spring the trap you would also wait if you ready to lie about as well.
Suppose I'm evil. When RMC claimed to be the fourth Special, I had the following options:

(1) Call attention to myself by claiming to be the fourth Special and casting doubt on the other two unproved claimants.
(2) Keep a low profile.

On your understanding, why would I do (1) rather than (2) if I were evil?

Bear in mind that if I'm evil, then avenue (1) means the evildoer is in the set {stessier, RMC, Grundbegriff} and avenue (2) means the evildoer is in the set {stessier, RMC, Grundbegriff, El Guapo, Remus West}.

This seems like Grund's strongest argument. If he says nothing, we probably lynch RMC yesterday, right? Then he kills Scoop (proven) that night, then just needs to survive a final day among stessier, Remus, Grund, and me. Stessier had been under suspicion for awhile, and Remus seemed oddly fixated on me as a villain, so that final day seems doable from a villain Grund's perspective.

So why does a villain Grund make the spoof play?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:14 am

El Guapo wrote:Note that this is NOT true for a villain Grund, since he waited until after RMC came out - because all the hero spots are filled at that point, he can pick any non-provable role that he wants without fear of being countered.

Breadcrumbs, starting early in the game (on Day One, in fact), all relating to Elongated Man.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:46 am

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:13 am

RMC wrote:Well lynch me today, and then you have can choose between Grund or Stress for the next day.

The guy came out and asked to be killed. He picked a role knowing it was a role we would want to remove to prevent a possible conversion if we missed on stessier.

My problem is if RMC knew about Grund and his role would have taken the same route. He could have picked another super hero other than Elongated Man.

What is the logic in spoofing Red Rocket when he had others to choose from and his death means the end of the game.