That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://garbi.online/forum/
For 10 weeks, at least.Smoove_B wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:02 am This is kind of a big deal.
Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID19
That's likely to keep changing, though, as we get more information. Seems a reasonable place to start.Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:18 amFor 10 weeks, at least.Smoove_B wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:02 am This is kind of a big deal.
Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID19
upload image anonymous
Oh, absolutely. I'm not intending to knock it--it's absolutely a great place to start. It's just a very far cry from the headlines. It's 10 weeks. Effectively, it means little until it's altered to be a significantly longer period. I'm actually a little concerned about the headlines which are mostly 'don't need to quarantine anymore once vaccinated!' since the take-away for most folks will be that it's permanent, or at least holds for a significant duration.stessier wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:23 amThat's likely to keep changing, though, as we get more information. Seems a reasonable place to start.Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:18 amFor 10 weeks, at least.Smoove_B wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:02 am This is kind of a big deal.
Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID19
upload image anonymous
I'd love to know how many people are quarantining after an exposure right now. I totally get what you're saying, but I'm hoping the message is filtered into another positive reason to get the vaccine series, i.e. anything that will help uptake. I haven't actually seen news headlines on it yet so I don't know how it's being distorted, but yeah, it probably will be to a degree.Zaxxon wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 10:57 amOh, absolutely. I'm not intending to knock it--it's absolutely a great place to start. It's just a very far cry from the headlines. It's 10 weeks. Effectively, it means little until it's altered to be a significantly longer period. I'm actually a little concerned about the headlines which are mostly 'don't need to quarantine anymore once vaccinated!' since the take-away for most folks will be that it's permanent, or at least holds for a significant duration.
No, not yet. I don't think that will happen until much, much later and unofficially I'd expect mask use to extend through the Fall of this year.
Soon is kinda wishywashy. Depending on where in the US (aka what's your weather) and the supply you receive, I'm thinking "soon" might be the case or might now. Locally, I peg the slow down to start in late May, when people start to get heavy on being cooped up when the weather is too good and they already missed early and mid spring and they still couldn't get in line. Essentially the supply will exceed the demand because people will give up on demanding. Cases will be down and we'll already have given up 14 months of our lives.Smoove_B wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:27 am Yes. As someone living in a state where demand far-outweighs supply it's not great. I still think we're collectively as a nation in a huge supply bottleneck right now and soon enough the news stories will be pivoting to how states no longer have lines or demand - there will be photos and videos of mega clinics open and empty, begging people to show up.
My father is 79 with multiple underlying conditions. He was just allowed to register to get in line this week. No ETA when the first shot will be given but at least he's finally in line. He's been working on this and I have been poorly assisting as best I can for a month. Mom, being 77 with no underlying conditions, has already said screw it. She's still following all of the precautions, but the vaccination is already something she's through jumping through hoops for (which does not make me thrilled).Smoove_B wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:43 pm Completely different situation here in NJ where I'm realistically not expecting to get my first vaccination until late March.
Defiant wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:20 am How to properly wear two masks — and other mask-fitting tips following recent CDC advice
but it says nothing about combining two cloth ones. why?What to do: Layer a cloth mask on top of a surgical or medical procedure mask. This helps the entire setup fit more snugly and eliminates gaps around the sides of the face or nose. Make sure the fit is comfortable and doesn’t have gaps.
What not to do: Do not combine two disposable masks, which are not designed to fit tightly. Wearing more than one disposable mask at a time will not improve fit.
The more layers, the more resistance from the cloth and the less air goes out through it. This means more air gets forced out around the mask, including the top, which fogs glasses.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 am I've been double-masking the last week+. The biggest issue with it so far is that my glasses fog up much worse when double masking than it ever did with a single mask. I guess I was under the impression that a tighter fit = less fogging, but that doeesn't seem to be the case. This is especially annoying since I had finally found a tight fitting cloth mask that didn't fog my glasses at all.
https://www.clothmasks.ca/The Meal wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:28 pm It has specifically excluded double cloth masking as being meaningfully beneficial.
The CDC explicitly says not to double-mask with a KN95. Given the shape of an N95/KN95 mask, I'd guess that the pressure from wearing a cloth mask over it might mess with the fit. As described on the CDC site, double-masking is specifically a technique to improve the fit of a procedural mask and doesn't really apply to anything else.The Meal wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:47 pm A cloth mask over my KN95 mask has definitely created more fogging and more escape around the edge.
Yep, that's what got me to move away from what I had been doing. The cloth mask that I use has a band that goes around my head, so it's much more comfortable than something that only hangs off my ears. I was thinking of using the cloth mask over top the KN95 purely as a comfort feature, but the mask extender for the KN95 accomplishes that all in its own. Live, experiment, listen-to-the-CDC, and learn.Max Peck wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:17 pm The CDC explicitly says not to double-mask with a KN95. Given the shape of an N95/KN95 mask, I'd guess that the pressure from wearing a cloth mask over it might mess with the fit. As described on the CDC site, double-masking is specifically a technique to improve the fit of a procedural mask and doesn't really apply to anything else.
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:50 pm And is there a good way to test if a mask fits tightly enough?
I get less fogging when both masks have nose wires. I can get a good enough seal along the top edge to drive the exhaust down and to the sides.LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:40 pmThe more layers, the more resistance from the cloth and the less air goes out through it. This means more air gets forced out around the mask, including the top, which fogs glasses.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 am I've been double-masking the last week+. The biggest issue with it so far is that my glasses fog up much worse when double masking than it ever did with a single mask. I guess I was under the impression that a tighter fit = less fogging, but that doeesn't seem to be the case. This is especially annoying since I had finally found a tight fitting cloth mask that didn't fog my glasses at all.
There's probably a point where adding layers actually makes things worse.
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
I can't read the link. What math do they use to show 70% vaccination by April?Little Raven wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:26 pm Woo hoo!We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.
Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.
I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.
But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.
My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.
Here's what I don't get, and it started with Smoove's talk about the huge unexplained drop, lest we think my thunk is an attack on conservative optimism and non mask wearing anti vaxers. This huge drop takes us down to the place where we are still above the rates at which we shuttered everything and which also back to about where we were pre Halloween, a time we were battening down the hatches to prepare for the start of a predicted rise at Halloween to last until the two weeks after New Year spike. To me, the drop (or presumptive return to flattening) looks very well explained and it looks like our hospitals should still be in a state of being overloaded, even if they're not bodybags in semi-truck freezers overloaded.Little Raven wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:26 pm Woo hoo!We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
Again...
Pretty much my more considered take (after the initial hot-take upthread). I mean, he's right that if the numbers keep dropping at their current rate, things will look pretty peachy on 5/1/21. But we don't know that his stated reasons for the drop are accurate.Smoove_B wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:25 pm Yeah, this is really just his hot-take on why cases are dropping. It goes back to the article that the Atlantic (and others) posted - we don't know the reason why right now and it's likely a multitude of reasons that we don't quite understand. To follow his logic he's skirting the "herd immunity" mentality that was popularized last year and implying this isn't really a big deal anymore because more people had it, didn't have problems and have recovered. Instead (he's arguing) we should be vaccinating the vulnerable and undeserved with his theory that so many more adults have already developed natural immunity.
I mean, it's definitely a way to look at everything and bet it all on a single element.
FWIW, his opinion is not endearing him to the greater field of public health.
OK, sure. But we can also observe that global warming eradicates pirates.The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.
Yeah, and giving that hope only to see it dashed again can cause a whole lot more despair.Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.
It's not that we're hiding the truth. There is no "truth" that cases will be lower by April and we'll have "herd immunity". That's a prediction about cases; that's his theory. To put this out there like it's fact will absolutely drive policy decisions as numerous governors,mayors and politicians will latch on to his theory because it's what they want to hear. The public will latch on because it's what they want to hear.Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth.
My gripe tbh is that he is making this loose opinions that is in a long line of loose or unsupported opinions that have largely been argued only in one political sphere and have consistently undercut response. But to the dangerous angle, he plays the 'old-guard' card that Zaxxon pointed out. To paraphrase it, he is saying that its the 'experts' again -- quoted just like Cuomo used it -- are holding us all back from returning to our lives. That's where it gets dangerous. None of us like this but this brand of fantasy thinking is what killed a lot of people and it'll continue to rub me the wrong way even if he ends up being right.Smoove_B wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:17 pmThe truth is we have no idea what's happening so we should continue with the current plan until we have more information about what's going on. Broadcasting this like he's speaking for the greater public health community at large is at best disingenuous. In truth, it's dangerous.
Heeeey. I see what you did there. We all know it has been the receding quantity of pirating that caused climate changes and the less pirates we have the faster "global warming" occurs.OK, sure. But we can also observe that global warming eradicates pirates.
Man, if I knew all I had to do to fight climate change was take to the high seas and commit to a life of derring-do, I'd have done that rather than solar panels.LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:18 pmHeeeey. I see what you did there. We all know it has been the receding quantity of pirating that caused climate changes and the less pirates we have the faster "global warming" occurs.OK, sure. But we can also observe that global warming eradicates pirates.
Where do I make my mark?Zaxxon wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:26 pmMan, if I knew all I had to do to fight climate change was take to the high seas and commit to a life of derring-do, I'd have done that rather than solar panels.LordMortis wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:18 pmHeeeey. I see what you did there. We all know it has been the receding quantity of pirating that caused climate changes and the less pirates we have the faster "global warming" occurs.OK, sure. But we can also observe that global warming eradicates pirates.