Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Kraken]

OK, sure. But we can also observe that global warming eradicates pirates.

Heeeey. I see what you did there. We all know it has been the receding quantity of pirating that caused climate changes and the less pirates we have the faster "global warming" occurs.

Man, if I knew all I had to do to fight climate change was take to the high seas and commit to a life of derring-do, I'd have done that rather than solar panels.

Where do I make my mark?

Don't make me post the pirate resignation letter.

[malchior]

Foreign Policy

At long last, we see glimmers of hope. The COVID-19 epidemic in the United States has fallen below the numbers of daily new cases tallied on the eve of the presidential election, the point at which this viral nightmare soared. Using the New York Times’ coronavirus data tracker, on Nov. 1, 2020, there were 74,195 new cases counted in the country; by Feb. 16, new case reports came in at 64,376.

But in between those dates, a national horror unfolded, peaking on Jan. 8 with 300,619 new cases reported in just 24 hours. This staggering wave, one full year into the pandemic, was completely unnecessary for the world’s richest country. Achieving any sense of closure will require holding Donald Trump accountable for the failure.

There is vast evidence of Trump’s negligence during the pandemic’s third wave. Had I been a member of the House of Representatives during the body’s impeachment deliberations, I would have added to Trump’s indictment the crime of pandemicide, naming him as responsible for most of the COVID-19 deaths that transpired while he, the nation’s leader, was preoccupied with damning Joe Biden’s election victory. Trump’s failure to, as he vowed in his oath of office, “faithfully execute the office of president of the United States” promulgated a scale of lives lost exceeding anything experienced in the country since the Civil War, 160 years ago.

[Isgrimnur]

We will hit 0.068% when we hit 228,160.

We're at 214,611 at the moment, and trending ~700/day, so... before Halloween.

WWI levels will take us 369,178.

Medium

[Defiant]

They should probably have them annual for all of them, rather than just heart disease and cancer (well, and Covid, almost and I guess those flu seasons)

[hitbyambulance]

and now there's the half-million Americans dead milestone

[Isgrimnur]

GO COVID, BEAT CANCER!

[wonderpug]

Man, everyone rags on Trump for hitting 400k deaths in a single year, but Biden's been president for only a month and he's hit 500k.

[Smoove_B]

Totally makes sense.

https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/13 ... 9048795136

NEW: Starting March 1st, sports and entertainment venues with a fixed-seating capacity of over 5,000 people may open for spectators:
10% capacity for indoor venues
15% capacity for outdoor venues

Restaurants, bars, concert and entertainment venues open and increasing limits. Schools in our state still in a hybrid/reduced schedule. We continue to prioritize the wrong things.

[malchior]

FWIW beyond the misplaced prioritization, it's also ... semi-pointless. I have a friend whose essentially been unemployed the whole time in live entertainment. He just scoffed at this. 10% / 15% capacity doesn't make financial sense business wise for anyone except...the big sports teams who have tv revenue. So congrats on that to the two sports teams who won't have an audience until the late summer for their windfall.

[Smoove_B]

People are also starting to pick up on the difference in messaging from the Governor. He's still communicating a goal to have ~5 million residents vaccinated by 5/31 but the state health commissioner is still saying the Fall is more realistic. They need to get on the same page because when you add in the Biden/Fauci message of June/July, that's three different timelines and only one is going to end up being right.

[Octavious]

Considering how unorganized it all is I would expect them all to be wrong.

[malchior]

People are also starting to pick up on the difference in messaging from the Governor. He's still communicating a goal to have ~5 million residents vaccinated by 5/31 but the state health commissioner is still saying the Fall is more realistic.

I was unaware of that. I'm not surprised. I make no bones that I think he is a pretty bad Governor...and he is facing re-election. It strikes me that this is almost certainly Memorial Day focused. He is playing to certain constituencies as usual. In other words, it is the typical Jersey bullshit.

They need to get on the same page because when you add in the Biden/Fauci message of June/July, that's three different timelines and only one is going to end up being right.

It seems like a no brainer to take shelter behind the President on this. Aggressive promises make no sense and are risky considering they have mismanaged everything. If he hits his target, I guess he has more freedom for big Memorial Day pronouncements that he thinks will guarantee his re-election. Despite the reality that he has little chance of losing anyway. His yet unnamed opponent is going to be cast from a pool of Republicans no one has ever heard of before.

[Smoove_B]

The new issue of MMWR is here! There's a special report on a outbreak in a GA school. Of note:

Educators might play a central role in in-school transmission networks. Preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections through multifaceted school mitigation measures and COVID-19 vaccination of educators is a critical component of preventing in-school transmission.

The big takeaway (imho)

Consistent with findings from international studies, this report found that initial infections among educators played a substantial role in in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and subsequent chains of infection to other educators, students, and households, highlighting the importance of preventing infections among educators in particular. Preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections in educators and students through multifaceted school mitigation measures is a critical component of preventing in-school transmission. Although not a requirement for reopening schools, adding COVID-19 vaccination for educators as an additional mitigation measure, when available, might serve several important functions, including protecting educators at risk for severe COVID-19–associated illness (6), potentially reducing in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and minimizing interruptions to in-person learning, all of which have important implications for educational equity and community health.

In short, we should be prioritizing teachers for vaccinations waaaaay more.

[Zaxxon]

In short, we should be prioritizing teachers for vaccinations waaaaay more.

Seriously. Our local district keeps mentioning that they're planning with the local health dept in their periodic communications. It seems like they are focusing for next year. Which is great, but kids are in school today, and for another 3 months before the summer.

[Smoove_B]

If the teachers work as bartenders or servers during the summer, it would seem more likely they'll be prioritized for vaccination.

[Zaxxon]

If the teachers work as bartenders or servers during the summer, it would seem more likely they'll be prioritized for vaccination.

[Smoove_B]

Meanwhile, in Iowa

https://twitter.com/SenatorRobHogg/stat ... 8532683777

BREAKING: More than 2,750 kids in Iowa have now contracted coronavirus since Gov. Reynolds signed SF160 to force 100% in-person without safety precautions on Jan. 29.

Today, Iowa reported another 71 new cases for kids under age 18, for a total of 2,757 in just 23 days.

[Blackhawk]

At the rate we're vaccinating, we could theoretically vaccinate every teacher in the country in two or three days (assuming we could actually get them scheduled and fire the anti-vaxxers. Like with actual flame.)

[Isgrimnur]

Come on, man! Do you know what that would do to carbon emissions?

[El Guapo]

BREAKING: More than 2,750 kids in Iowa have now contracted coronavirus since Gov. Reynolds signed SF160 to force 100% in-person without safety precautions on Jan. 29.

Today, Iowa reported another 71 new cases for kids under age 18, for a total of 2,757 in just 23 days.

"Without safety precautions" = without even so much as a mask mandate?

[Smoove_B]

"Without safety precautions" = without even so much as a mask mandate?

“It’s time to put local control into the hands of parents, where it belongs, so that they can choose what’s best for their children,” Reynolds said before signing SF 160 (formerly SSB 1064) into law.

A small group of supporters and a few children gathered around the governor for the signing ceremony at the Iowa State Capitol. Everyone except the governor was wearing a face mask. Reynolds has chosen not require schools mandate face masks, and has exempted schools from the limited mask mandate she established in November for most buildings open to the public.

From here.

[Zaxxon]

Today I learned that my district is not the worst. (Well, not even the 2nd-worst, behind Blackhawk's...)

[Smoove_B]

When will life be normal again, via The Atlantic:

Spring 2021

For the most part, daily life will continue to be far from normal for the next few months. Normal is of course a slippery word, given that many Americans have had to report to work or have chosen to dine out, travel, and do all sorts of things that others have avoided. But whatever people have not been doing for the past year, they can expect to keep not doing it this spring.

...

Summer 2021

Whatever happens in the spring, the summer should be a sublime departure from what Americans have lived through so far. As my colleague James Hamblin wrote last week, “In most of the U.S., the summer could feel … ‘normal,’” even “revelatory.”

“Barring some variant that is just really crazy, I expect the summer to be a lot like the summer of 2019,” Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at UC Irvine, told me. Based on the drop-off in cases and hospitalizations over the past few weeks, he thinks life could even be close to normal as soon as sometime in May.

...

Fall/Winter 2021–22

Even if the summer feels like the end of the pandemic, it could turn out to be more of a temporary reprieve.

Most of the U.S. population should be vaccinated by the fall, but some resurgence of the virus seems likely in the colder months. “It won’t be as bad as this winter, but I don’t know if it’s going to be pretty bad or [if] just a few people will get it,” Noymer said.

Thankfully, the latter scenario seems more likely, and could still allow for additional normalcy; indoor concerts might even come back. “The summer might be a little early for really large crowds,” Dowd said. “I see the autumn as the important turning point for those kinds of mass gatherings.”

I know it's confusing to read that 'indoor concerts might even be coming back this fall and next winter" since I shared yesterday that NJ is allowing that to happen i a few weeks, albeit in lower numbers. I know we're not the only state doing so.

After that?

Beyond next winter, experts’ predictions are blessedly simple: Life in the warmer months of 2022 should be normal, or at least whatever qualifies as normal post-pandemic. The virus will still exist, but one possibility is that it will be less likely to make people severely ill and that it will, like the flu, circulate primarily in the colder months; some people would still die from COVID-19, but the virus wouldn’t rage out of control again. Meanwhile, Americans should be able to do most, if not all, of the things that they missed so much in 2020 and 2021, mask- and worry-free.

I personally think this is a good estimate overall. What they are unfortunately focused on is life in America (understandably so). I don't get the impression this analysis takes into account what's happening globally with the virus and how that's actually going to impact life here. It won't surprise me if major metro areas have frequent cluster outbreaks (due to travel) and there are random unexplained outbreaks in the suburbs that are ultimately linked to travel. The problem here is that this will once again likely then be perceived as a "blue state" problem and parts of the U.S. that don't have outbreaks for months on end are going to be less interested in what happens in the more densely populated areas of the country. I guess that's not all that different than how things are now...

[Ralph-Wiggum]

But we still don't know how long the vaccines remain effective for, do we? How much of the above scenario changes if, say, we need to get annual booster shots? Will our supply be sufficient to do that for the majority of the population?

[Smoove_B]

But we still don't know how long the vaccines remain effective for, do we? How much of the above scenario changes if, say, we need to get annual booster shots? Will our supply be sufficient to do that for the majority of the population?

Right, we're still learning. The idea is that if we can get enough people vaccinated at the same time the levels of circulating virus will drop and overall risk of exposure (until the next cluster outbreak occurs) will diminish. I think there's been strong support to suggest that there's still some conferred benefit to the vaccine even if that benefit does diminish over time (4 months? 6 months? 12 months?), but yeah we might not really know that until August or so, 6+ months into the vaccination effort and we can start to see if fully vaccinated people are becoming infected and how their health profile looks. Similar to the suggestions that the vaccine limits spread, I think there's hope forming, but nothing confirmed.

[El Guapo]

But we still don't know how long the vaccines remain effective for, do we? How much of the above scenario changes if, say, we need to get annual booster shots? Will our supply be sufficient to do that for the majority of the population?

Right, we're still learning. The idea is that if we can get enough people vaccinated at the same time the levels of circulating virus will drop and overall risk of exposure (until the next cluster outbreak occurs) will diminish. I think there's been strong support to suggest that there's still some conferred benefit to the vaccine even if that benefit does diminish over time (4 months? 6 months? 12 months?), but yeah we might not really know that until August or so, 6+ months into the vaccination effort and we can start to see if fully vaccinated people are becoming infected and how their health profile looks. Similar to the suggestions that the vaccine limits spread, I think there's hope forming, but nothing confirmed.

Also I get the impression that we should be able to manage the supply issues if regular booster shots become required, given how fast the pharma companies are cranking them out these days. I suspect the delivery chain issues are going to (continue to be) the biggest problem, but I also suspect that we'll be able to improve them over time to the point where delivery issues become far more manageable.

[Smoove_B]

Yes, this initial rollout it the problem. Once we've established the baseline, I can imagine a scenario where people in a certain region (i.e. you live in particular county or part of a state) are given a notification that if they fit certain criteria, they should contact their local health department and/or pharmacy about receiving a booster shot.

[LordMortis]

When will life be normal again, via The Atlantic:

Spring 2021

For the most part, daily life will continue to be far from normal for the next few months. Normal is of course a slippery word, given that many Americans have had to report to work or have chosen to dine out, travel, and do all sorts of things that others have avoided. But whatever people have not been doing for the past year, they can expect to keep not doing it this spring.

...

Summer 2021

Whatever happens in the spring, the summer should be a sublime departure from what Americans have lived through so far. As my colleague James Hamblin wrote last week, “In most of the U.S., the summer could feel … ‘normal,’” even “revelatory.”

“Barring some variant that is just really crazy, I expect the summer to be a lot like the summer of 2019,” Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at UC Irvine, told me. Based on the drop-off in cases and hospitalizations over the past few weeks, he thinks life could even be close to normal as soon as sometime in May.

...

Fall/Winter 2021–22

Even if the summer feels like the end of the pandemic, it could turn out to be more of a temporary reprieve.

Most of the U.S. population should be vaccinated by the fall, but some resurgence of the virus seems likely in the colder months. “It won’t be as bad as this winter, but I don’t know if it’s going to be pretty bad or [if] just a few people will get it,” Noymer said.

Thankfully, the latter scenario seems more likely, and could still allow for additional normalcy; indoor concerts might even come back. “The summer might be a little early for really large crowds,” Dowd said. “I see the autumn as the important turning point for those kinds of mass gatherings.”

I fully expect Spring to be people largely throwing caution to the wind while I cower but not at work. We just got an email today saying there is still no timeline for workers available to work from to return to the office and spring is just a few weeks away.

When I see the cases drop to next to nothing in the summer and the vaccine is still nowhere in sight, I'm not sure how I will react. I'd like to believe I stay cowering in my hole but by then were talking a 16+ month sentence. I may have cracked and find myself trying to both be responsible and allowing myself to see people in intimate settings sans mask to game or do family things.

By autumn, I should be vaccinated and I'll likely have the virus somewhere in the back of mind but aside from mask wearing in public space, I'm not likely to let it run my life beyond respecting those that do.

[Smoove_B]

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1 ... 0753609733

Definitely concerned how #COVID cases are not declining as rapidly in NY NJ and some areas of New England as other parts of the country. Also FL. Hard to know how much of this is due to SGTF variants...

It's the awful vaccination rollout in NJ/NY and how the people that need it the most, aren't able to get them. That's my guess.

[malchior]

Both sides of school reopening debate have it wrong - Washington Post

Both sides of the school reopening debate have it wrong. We shouldn’t be debating whether schools are safe to reopen. Instead, we should ask whether in-person schooling is essential. If it is — as many Americans, including President Biden, insist — then we should treat schools as we do hospitals. That means doing everything possible to them make safer, starting with vaccinating teachers.

The Biden administration has said that teachers should get priority for vaccinations, but leaves the decision up to the states. This is a mistake. If Biden’s 100-day goal is to get most K-8 schools open five days a week, he must make protecting teachers his top priority.

Let’s face it: There won’t be a consensus on whether schools can be safe from the coronavirus. Reports of low in-school transmission can be countered with arguments that schools lack testing and tracing to account for cases. Also, the same data can lead to different conclusions. After the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released its strategy for reopening schools, public health experts wrote competing op-eds, some arguing that the CDC guidelines are too strict and will unnecessarily keep students out of school, and others saying the opposite.

As one of the public participants in the debate, I have come to see the conundrum and the error of both positions. Our dispute was not over the science, but the interpretation of it, because people have differing tolerance of risk. Some might say that if the risk of contracting the coronavirus in school is no greater than getting it from the community, that’s safe enough. Others would argue that because people can safely isolate at home, no amount of risk is acceptable. Any attempt to compromise and define what’s safe would result in a goalpost that changes any time there’s even one case of suspected in-school transmission.

To move forward, I believe we need a complete reframing. Stop asking whether schools are safe. Instead, acknowledge that in-person instruction is essential; then apply the principles we learned from other essential services to keep schools open.

There are children for whom in-person instruction has been essential throughout the pandemic, who depend on school for food; who have special needs that can be met only in school; and who lack technology to engage in distance learning. Many other children are facing significant consequences from not being in school, including increasing behavioral and cognitive deficits and mental health challenges. The need for parents to work is also a factor.

[Smoove_B]

She's not wrong. I'd argue we made it quite clear from the get-go that schools aren't essential based on the policy decisions that have been broadly made nationwide. Add that to what I just saw yesterday in NYC - that indoor dining levels are going to increase this Friday while at the same time restaurant and bar workers are not prioritized as higher risk for vaccination appointments. It's no wonder the general public is so confused and doesn't know what to believe.

[Kraken]

Charlie Baker dropped the bomb today that all elementary schools in Mass. will open for in-person instruction five days a week starting in April. Mostly, parents rejoiced and teachers had conniptions. Teachers still aren't eligible for vaccine (although I believe they're in the next cohort and should theoretically be good to go by April). A few days ago the mayor of my town decreed that the high school shall reopen for spring term, so I guess we're a little ahead of the state mandate.

I'm glad I'm neither a parent nor a teacher, because both sides have legitimate concerns and IDK who to side with.

[raydude]

I count myself lucky to live in an area (Alexandria City) where we currently have only a 7.7% positivity rate, several free COVID 19 testing sites, and a neighborhood that mostly practices proper mask-wearing. And after seeing the City Council's email notice saying how they are still seeking volunteers, I decided to sign up for the Alexandria Volunteer Medical Reserve Corps as a non-medical volunteer. Even if it's just data entry I figure it frees an actual medical person to do the real work.

Just got an email back today from the Alexandria Health Department Medical Reserve Corps Coordinator, welcoming me onboard! They still have to do my background check and then there's some online training involved. Still not sure what I'll be doing, but looking forward to the volunteer work!

[RunningMn9]

I'm glad I'm neither a parent nor a teacher, because both sides have legitimate concerns and IDK who to side with.

So much depends on a kid's age, but at all ages, virtual learning is a pretty piss-poor substitute if you are stuck in a district or school that didn't previously understand how to maximize online learning. My daughter is a senior in high school this year, and hasn't stepped foot in school since Mar 19 of last year. She's basically a smooth brain now. We could watch those folds unravel in real-time, and college is going to be an epic disaster for her initially.

My son is a sophomore in college and has been fully remove since spring break last year, and it hasn't turned him into a smooth brain, but it has really been a struggle for him mentally (his GPA is still really high, but the toll it's taking to achieve that given his procrastination has been huge). He's getting help now on the mental health side, but the lack of going to school and having to do all of this on his own, in his room - that's just not his thing.

But every aspect of that is lightyears easier to deal with because my kids are old enough to have some capacity to manage their daily life. If my kids were in elementary school? Holy shit, there would have already been a murder-suicide in my house.

[El Guapo]

Charlie Baker dropped the bomb today that all elementary schools in Mass. will open for in-person instruction five days a week starting in April. Mostly, parents rejoiced and teachers had conniptions. Teachers still aren't eligible for vaccine (although I believe they're in the next cohort and should theoretically be good to go by April). A few days ago the mayor of my town decreed that the high school shall reopen for spring term, so I guess we're a little ahead of the state mandate.

I'm glad I'm neither a parent nor a teacher, because both sides have legitimate concerns and IDK who to side with.

April seems like an odd time to fully reopen. If we were farther along in vaccinating, then maybe you figure you have teachers vaccinated by then but given how badly MA has been doing on that....seems unlikely. With just a couple months left in the year, seems like it would make more sense to just do virtual for the rest of this school year and then plan on in person full time with fully vaccinated staff in the fall? Also would avoid an in-person transition in the middle of the spring semester?

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1 ... 7578888193

[Paingod]

When the only thing on your daily agenda is being deplorable, double-talk and hypocrisy are just flavoring in the stew.

[Smoove_B]

It's probably going to hurt someone's feelings, and yet everyone can likely instantly identify with it.

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1365103118531362825

[Smoove_B]

All the topics are blending for me, so I apologize if it's a repeat

https://twitter.com/SherylNYT/status/13 ... 7228413954

CDC WARNING: Drop in Covid cases "may be stalling," @CDCDirector Walensky says. Daily infections have gone up for the past 3 days compared to last week.

"We at CDC consider this a very concerning shift in the trajectory . . . Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax."

[LawBeefaroni]

All the topics are blending for me, so I apologize if it's a repeat

https://twitter.com/SherylNYT/status/13 ... 7228413954

CDC WARNING: Drop in Covid cases "may be stalling," @CDCDirector Walensky says. Daily infections have gone up for the past 3 days compared to last week.

"We at CDC consider this a very concerning shift in the trajectory . . . Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax."

Traffic today was probably the most I've seen on a normal Friday in 8 months. People are going out.