Octopus Overlords

 Newcastle 
 
I'll gladly help vote the princess out.

Why are we voting for Newcastle at this point?

We can state with some reasonable assuredness that Newcastle is a Rebel, and that he's Leia.

Today we have no need to form a vote train on a known Rebel player--there's no situation like Day 2, where the vote train proved my role.

Today's vote train on Newcastle only should happen if the Empire fails to produce someone able to shoot him dead during the dayturn. Until some time has passed by without a shot, Newcastle's fate shouldn't go to a vote.

Yeah, Trig's right. I was thinking about this this morning, and we should probably use a shooter if one is available. Every day that we don't use a shooter we risk having him killed at night (either randomly, or targeted a result of a rebel scan). Plus if we shoot Newcastle then we get information via the vote patterns which will be useful in rooting out Han and Leia's cohorts (plus with the benefit of me being fully proven). The downside is that ideally we'd use shots to kill Chewie and/or Lando, but we may not have any scans left (with our emperor gone and my scan used, the only scan of the living that we have is maybe Boba Fett, and even that's improbable), and without any reasonable scans it would be difficult to hit Chewie or Lando with a shot anyhow.

I'm not sure where we are on Newcastle, but I'll  withdraw Newcastle 
 
for now. I figure I'll wait until when I'm leaving work (about 5:30 eastern) and then put my vote back on Newcastle if he's still alive.

trig, while I agree with most all of your analysis, I don't think we should read anything into bb2112's statement. Here's his entire post:

bb2112 wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Voting is Closed - It is Now Night 2

WTF????

OMG, THIS IS AWESOME!!!

I'll leave it to bb2112 to explain it further, but I read that as bb2112 thinking Scoop's "homage" to Chaos' reaction on the first day was what was awesome. I think he was talking about Scoop's post and not an indication of anything happening in the game.

El Guapo wrote: I'm not sure where we are on Newcastle, but I'll  withdraw Newcastle 
 
for now.

We were at 7 (el guapo, pr0ner, tru1cy, RMC, coop, theohall, Mr Bubbles), now 6. Actually we were at 8 if Semaj broken accuse was counted.

So, if we wait on Newcastle, who shall it be? Unagi and trig seem to agree on RMC. I'm not sure if that's good news or bad. After blowing it on CR, I'm trying to be more cautious.

Unagi's list:
Newcastle - next
RMC
Qantaga
tru1cy
Mr Bubbles (the recent exchange with the deleted post, seals the deal.... I saw that post too)
Grund
KK
coop

Trig's list:
Newcastle (trying really hard to hide that his boobs are setting off the metal detectors)
RMC
Isgrimnur
tru1cy
kenetickid

You agree on Newcastle, RMC, tru1cy and KK and even in the same order. I'm with trig on thinking Isgrimnur is looking suspect and I'm not clear why RMC is atop both of your lists or KK for that matter, I assume it's something your experience gives you that I don't have. So if not Newcastle, who's next?

uhg... such garbage... How did I screw up my accuse?

 Newcastle 
 


Amazingly, I almost screwed it up again...the exact same way

Qantaga is next.

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

Semaj wrote:uhg... such garbage... How did I screw up my accuse?

 Newcastle 
 


Amazingly, I almost screwed it up again...the exact same way

Take it off now, we'll have some discussion before we lynch someone....

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

..and you are skipping RMC in your own threat list. I'd rather take the one higher on your list that trig agrees on. Why does RMC get a pass?

 withdraw newcastle 
 


o...k..?

This is certainly a game with no lack for excitement. Day 1, dueling Emperors. Day 2, Rebel dead, trig proven. Day 3, another Rebel, Newcastle (or El Guapo in the unlikely event of Newcastle coming back Empire), another proven (Remus), and a mostly proven (El Guapo).

The reason I say that El Guapo is mostly proven is that there is the *very* small chance that El Guapo could also be a Rebel sacrificing a fellow Reb for late game cred. That would be highly unlikely, but possible, if the Rebs think they have good numbers and if they have the random role of Obi-Wan and learned that stessier or Lassr was in fact Jabba.

I agree that Newcastle needs to die today, either by shot/strangle or lynch, so I will hold my vote until we can see if a shot/strangle will occur or not.

coopasonic wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

..and you are skipping RMC in your own threat list. I'd rather take the one higher on your list that trig agrees on. Why does RMC get a pass?

I have no idea why RMC is pinging anyone's list, so for now, he's not on mine.

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

Ah, I knew something felt off about this game. It was that Unagi hadn't looked my way yet. Now, it feels like the universe is centered again.

Qantaga wrote:trig, while I agree with most all of your analysis, I don't think we should read anything into bb2112's statement. Here's his entire post:

bb2112 wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Voting is Closed - It is Now Night 2

WTF????

OMG, THIS IS AWESOME!!!

I'll leave it to bb2112 to explain it further, but I read that as bb2112 thinking Scoop's "homage" to Chaos' reaction on the first day was what was awesome. I think he was talking about Scoop's post and not an indication of anything happening in the game.

Q, you are absolutely correct. It was purely I'm laughing at Scoops awesome sense of humor, no hints were given or intended.

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

Here is my take on that event.

Don't you think it would be like the last thing a Rebel would want to do? To come out looking like he is protecting Newcastle, when we all pretty much know that Newcastle isn't Imperial and is indeed Leia? That just doesn't seem like something a Rebel would want to come right out and say he is willing to do....

Additionally - I actually do think that Mr Bubbles is indeed Rebel.
Additionally - Isgrimnur truly was Busted-Evil when he himself deleted what was basically a harmless post - but Isgrimnur knows that he would very likely NOT have deleted the post if he was Villager - it was his "super careful" mode that inclined him to remove a post that he felt may give him a little unwanted attention

(Mr Bubbles' post had in it a comment/'mild accusation' that he thought Remus was pretending/playing the role of informed Imperial... or something to that effect.)

I read Isgrimnur's response to Mr Bubbles deleted post to be very much in line with a "non wolf" wanting to bust a wolf in the way that he was once busted...

Qantaga wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

Ah, I knew something felt off about this game. It was that Unagi hadn't looked my way yet. Now, it feels like the universe is centered again.

Close your eyes and hold that thought.

One) Either Newcastle is Rebel or El Guapo is rebel. We make that choice now or later. My vote is on Newcastle. I'll place that vote as soon as we are comfy with lynching. Shooting is fine too IMO, though I prefer lynch at this point because Guapo is the natural target for the night.

Two) Be wary of Leia. The silence ability is mostly useless here, except to prevent a vote exactly once. Aside from that the silence ability generally comes too late. That said, it's a great ruse device.

During the day, one time this game, she can program the bot to fly in and stun one person without revealing her identity.

Silence a rebel and make him look like he's empire. You may be able to trust remus for now as you find better suspects but I sure as hell would not use his silence as evidence that he's empire.

Unagi wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

Here is my take on that event.

Don't you think it would be like the last thing a Rebel would want to do? To come out looking like he is protecting Newcastle, when we all pretty much know that Newcastle isn't Imperial and is indeed Leia? That just doesn't seem like something a Rebel would want to come right out and say he is willing to do....

Additionally - I actually do think that Mr Bubbles is indeed Rebel.
Additionally - Isgrimnur truly was Busted-Evil when he himself deleted what was basically a harmless post - but Isgrimnur knows that he would very likely NOT have deleted the post if he was Villager - it was his "super careful" mode that inclined him to remove a post that he felt may give him a little unwanted attention

(Mr Bubbles' post had in it a comment/'mild accusation' that he thought Remus was pretending/playing the role of informed Imperial... or something to that effect.)

I read Isgrimnur's response to Mr Bubbles deleted post to be very much in line with a "non wolf" wanting to bust a wolf in the way that he was once busted...

You think I would be so careless if I was a rebel? You insult me Unagi. I accuse remus, because at the time I felt he was a wolf in sheeps clothing and I had to reevaluate it. But feel free to put your vote on me if you want, although all you'll get is a imperial supporter.

Unagi wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

Here is my take on that event.

Don't you think it would be like the last thing a Rebel would want to do? To come out looking like he is protecting Newcastle, when we all pretty much know that Newcastle isn't Imperial and is indeed Leia? That just doesn't seem like something a Rebel would want to come right out and say he is willing to do....

Additionally - I actually do think that Mr Bubbles is indeed Rebel.
Additionally - Isgrimnur truly was Busted-Evil when he himself deleted what was basically a harmless post - but Isgrimnur knows that he would very likely NOT have deleted the post if he was Villager - it was his "super careful" mode that inclined him to remove a post that he felt may give him a little unwanted attention

(Mr Bubbles' post had in it a comment/'mild accusation' that he thought Remus was pretending/playing the role of informed Imperial... or something to that effect.)

I read Isgrimnur's response to Mr Bubbles deleted post to be very much in line with a "non wolf" wanting to bust a wolf in the way that he was once busted...

I get your reasoning.

I don't get Isgrimnur's timing. Why would he go after proving one person versus potentially proving two? Because of a grudge he holds over a mistake he made in the past?!

Mr Bubbles wrote:

Unagi wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

Here is my take on that event.

Don't you think it would be like the last thing a Rebel would want to do? To come out looking like he is protecting Newcastle, when we all pretty much know that Newcastle isn't Imperial and is indeed Leia? That just doesn't seem like something a Rebel would want to come right out and say he is willing to do....

Additionally - I actually do think that Mr Bubbles is indeed Rebel.
Additionally - Isgrimnur truly was Busted-Evil when he himself deleted what was basically a harmless post - but Isgrimnur knows that he would very likely NOT have deleted the post if he was Villager - it was his "super careful" mode that inclined him to remove a post that he felt may give him a little unwanted attention

(Mr Bubbles' post had in it a comment/'mild accusation' that he thought Remus was pretending/playing the role of informed Imperial... or something to that effect.)

I read Isgrimnur's response to Mr Bubbles deleted post to be very much in line with a "non wolf" wanting to bust a wolf in the way that he was once busted...

You think I would be so careless if I was a rebel? You insult me Unagi. I accuse remus, because at the time I felt he was a wolf in sheeps clothing and I had to reevaluate it. But feel free to put your vote on me if you want, although all you'll get is a imperial supporter.

What stands out to me is how upset you have gotten with me, but how when Newcastle accuses you of deleting the post - you don't mention or show any real sign of being Insulted or being pissed of playing Meta, etc, etc, - you just handle it very well and he handles you handling it very well...

That stands out to me.

Sorry, I don't mean to insult you.

LordMortis wrote:

During the day, one time this game, she can program the bot to fly in and stun one person without revealing her identity.

Silence a rebel and make him look like he's empire. You may be able to trust remus for now as you find better suspects but I sure as hell would not use his silence as evidence that he's empire.

Nice mistake, Mortis.

Leia can't silence a rebel.

Yeah, that's a really blatant mistake... Let's go check Leia's rules:

Leia Organa: Leia has a stun bot the size of a syringe hidden somewhere on her body. Use your imagination. During the day, one time this game, she can program the bot to fly in and stun one person without revealing her identity. That person will be silenced for the day and the following night, but will wake up the following day cycle. She cannot use this ability on any of the rebel forces.

LM, you also suggested that Greedo would be the very best thing to throw at Scoop.... That would have really sucked.... for us Imperials.

pr0ner wrote:I get your reasoning.

I don't get Isgrimnur's timing. Why would he go after proving one person versus potentially proving two? Because of a grudge he holds over a mistake he made in the past?!

One thing I will say.... if Mr Bubbles is Chewie - Isgrimnur could have been trying to get that carpet pulled.

To be clear, Newcastle is next. I'd just prefer to shoot him rather than lynch him if possible (as Trig suggested), but either way he dies next. So I'm not planning on casting another vote today - I'm just going to wait to see if he gets shot; if not, then my vote is going back on him.

As for suspects, first I should point out that you're comparing Unagi's list with Trig's list, not any of my lists (just confused about your use of "you"). I have to say I'm very puzzled by Grund's lack of posting for almost the entire game, so I'd be curious to poke him a little bit and hopefully at least get him to participate.

But I'm not voting for anyone other than Newcastle today, at least as long as he (she) lives.

I'm thrawn

Good job guys

LET ME REPEAT


I"M ADMIRAL THRAWN

I've posted the vote analysis a couple of times as to why RMC, tru1cy, Isgrimnur, and Mr. Bubbles are prime suspects.

What it comes down to is this: we had a fairly unique occurrence happen on Day 1. Scoop went to N-1 on one vote train. The player who pulled off that train first was me. I have proven myself as Count Dooku.

Additionally, on that N-1 train, votes 5-10 hit in a pretty rapid-fire succession. Let's take a look at that N-1 train.

bb2112 wrote: Lassr 1 -----------------> El Guapo
Mr Bubbles 1 -----------> Semaj
Unagi 3 -----------------> Tru1cy, RMC, Theohall
Newcastle 1 ------------> Isgrimnur
Tru1cy 1 ----------------> Qantaga
Remus West 1 ---------> Scoop20906
Grundbegriff 2 ---------> Newcastle
Semaj 1 -----------------> Mr Bubbles
Scoop20906 9 ----------> Triggercut, Unagi, Stessier, Lassr, Kenetickid, Chaosraven, Pr0ner, Remus West, Grundbegriff, Coopasonic


Majority is 11
Deadline: July 13th 9PM EST

From Kenetickid through Grundbegriff, the votes came rather fast. I submit that no one past Chaosraven in that list would risk running Scoop that close if they were a rebel.

Now ask: what do badguys do on day one? They try to start/contribute to bandwagon votes on goodguys. Take a look at the vote on Unagi here. That seems like a vote with at least 1 or 2 rebels in it.

For me, the more interesting vote train happened when Scoop got to N-2. That's when Scoop broke cover and claimed to be the Emperor. If that was a deliberate play, it's a bad one. The Rebels cannot afford to trade 1:1 with us. They got excessively lucky that my misplay against Chaosraven forced our real seer into the open. I'd submit that Scoop broke cover because he felt like he was going to have to sacrifice himself anyway and to perhaps sow confusion. In other words, he claimed an Empire role reluctantly. So, here's what things looked like when Scoop "came out", starting with this "base":

Chaosraven 8 <---------- Kenetickid, Triggercut, RMC, Coopasonic, Newcastle, Theohall, Scoop20906, El Guapo
Scoop20906 6 <---------- Stessier, Pr0ner, Lord Mortis, Semaj, Chaosraven, Lassr
Triggercut 3 <----------- Isgrimnur, Unagi, Remus
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

First off, notice our familiar friends RMC, Isgrimnur, tru1cy, and Mr Bubbles continuing to studiously avoid Scoop? Ok, Scoop's at 6 votes here. Then:

Unagi votes for Scoop, but sees Bubbles lurking and changes back to Bubbles...but expresses that he'll be happy to vote for Scoop again as we get to deadline.
coopasonic votes for Scoop, putting him at 7 votes.
Qantaga votes for Scoop, putting him at 8 votes.
theohall votes for Scoop, putting him at 9 votes.

13 minutes later, Scoop comes out as the Emperor.

If we assume Scoop came out reluctantly, then we should assume that Scoop's alternative to doing so would be to ask the rebels in the vote train for him to please back off and switch to me or Chaosraven. If we accept the case of a reluctant Scoop revealing role, then we accept the fact that none of the nine players voting for Scoop are rebels.


Finally, take a look at the vote disposition here. Scoop is a known Rebel, and we have good reason to think Newcastle is as well. The vote train against Chaosraven, our Emperor, is 1 proven Empire (Me), 1 almost-proven Empire (Guapo), 2 strongly-lean Empire (coop and theo). It is also 1 proven Rebel (Scoop), 1 almost proven Reb (Newc), and then RMC--who looked to be trying to form a vote train of sorts on Unagi when Scoop was at N-1. Look at the other votes, too:

Against me you have two strong Empire leans in Unagi and Remus...plus Isgrimnur, who along with Newcastle and RMC are part of the set of players to have never joined either Scoop train on Day 1.
Against Unagi (Empire lean thanks to N-1 Scoop train presence) you have tru1cy...who also is in the set of players to not be in on either Scooptrain.
Against Semaj (Slight Empire lean thanks to N-2 Scoop train presence) you have Mr Bubbles...who never joined either Scooptrain.

digging up my bread crumbs...

LordMortis wrote:One) Either Newcastle is Rebel or El Guapo is rebel. We make that choice now or later. My vote is on Newcastle. I'll place that vote as soon as we are comfy with lynching. Shooting is fine too IMO, though I prefer lynch at this point because Guapo is the natural target for the night.

Two) Be wary of Leia. The silence ability is mostly useless here, except to prevent a vote exactly once. Aside from that the silence ability generally comes too late. That said, it's a great ruse device.

During the day, one time this game, she can program the bot to fly in and stun one person without revealing her identity.

Silence a rebel and make him look like he's empire. You may be able to trust remus for now as you find better suspects but I sure as hell would not use his silence as evidence that he's empire.

The Leia correction has been pointed out already. Beyond that, FWIW I'm really not the natural target for tonight. My ability is all used up, my special knowledge has been imparted to the group already, so from here on out I'm effectively unpowered. Now, once Newcastle is dead and is publicly identified as rebel I'll be effectively proven, so I may well get killed before the end of the game to reduce the pool of proven, but I suspect that the rebels tonight will try to get one of our other specials tonight.

El Guapo wrote:As for suspects, first I should point out that you're comparing Unagi's list with Trig's list, not any of my lists (just confused about your use of "you").

I was quoting you for the "I'm not sure where we are" on the count part. Sorry for any confusion.

Newcastle wrote:LET ME REPEAT


I"M ADMIRAL THRAWN

And there it is... this one is provable if Rukh is in the game and survives the night.

Newcastle wrote:LET ME REPEAT


I"M ADMIRAL THRAWN

Unprovable role, possible/probable attempt to force Real Thrawn out, gives the Rebs the chance to eliminate him overnight.

Really now.

So let's set Newcastle aside a moment then.

Newc, care to join me in a vote for:

 RMC 
 
?

triggercut wrote:

Newcastle wrote:LET ME REPEAT


I"M ADMIRAL THRAWN

Unprovable role, possible/probable attempt to force Real Thrawn out, gives the Rebs the chance to eliminate him overnight.

Really now.

It *is* provable. Rukh would have to scan him to confirm and then use his kill to prove himself. Chewbacca is the only day kill the rebs have left and he can't kill until there is an imperial vote on him. It all hinges on Rukh being alive though.

coopasonic wrote:

triggercut wrote:

Newcastle wrote:LET ME REPEAT


I"M ADMIRAL THRAWN

Unprovable role, possible/probable attempt to force Real Thrawn out, gives the Rebs the chance to eliminate him overnight.

Really now.

It *is* provable. Rukh would have to scan him to confirm and then use his kill to prove himself. Chewbacca is the only day kill the rebs have left and he can't kill until there is an imperial vote on him. It all hinges on Rukh being alive though.

Oops forgot Mara Jade.

 Withdraw Newcastle 
 

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

Unagi wrote:Qantaga is next.

So you want to give Isgrimnur a free pass for going after Bubbles today and not Newcastle?

Here is my take on that event.

Don't you think it would be like the last thing a Rebel would want to do? To come out looking like he is protecting Newcastle, when we all pretty much know that Newcastle isn't Imperial and is indeed Leia? That just doesn't seem like something a Rebel would want to come right out and say he is willing to do....

Additionally - I actually do think that Mr Bubbles is indeed Rebel.
Additionally - Isgrimnur truly was Busted-Evil when he himself deleted what was basically a harmless post - but Isgrimnur knows that he would very likely NOT have deleted the post if he was Villager - it was his "super careful" mode that inclined him to remove a post that he felt may give him a little unwanted attention

(Mr Bubbles' post had in it a comment/'mild accusation' that he thought Remus was pretending/playing the role of informed Imperial... or something to that effect.)

I read Isgrimnur's response to Mr Bubbles deleted post to be very much in line with a "non wolf" wanting to bust a wolf in the way that he was once busted...

I get your reasoning.

I don't get Isgrimnur's timing. Why would he go after proving one person versus potentially proving two? Because of a grudge he holds over a mistake he made in the past?!

With the claim out front that newcastle is Leia, I figured the train would easily form without me jumping on board. After all, we've pretty much established that voting patterns on "proven" enemies are patently useless. True good guys jump the train just as much as the enemies do to give themselves cover. So why should I join the lynch mob?

I don't hold a grudge over getting offed fro my delete post screwup, but I don't believe that other people should get a pass for the behavior either. I didn't whine about the deleted post, and never made an issue outside the game of who caught me in it.

tru1cy wrote: Withdraw Newcastle 
 

I'm stunned.

Newcastle wrote: withdraw theohall 
 


 grund 
 


less art more analysis...

Kind of a slow start eh? Not many folks have popped in. Was tempted to throw a vote on proner, but i see he's shown up.

Mention of art in this.....Thrawn is a lover of art. CHeck out his wikipedia link...Yeah i know i put it in context of Grund...BUT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrawn" target="_blank

Newcastle wrote:I really really want to see CR lynched. I think his comment is the best we have to go off of today. But ui am getting blue in the face repeating myself. I would consider one of the silents if a train gets moving...simply so they dont hurt us later in the game. I wont be voting for the scoop train. Something doesnt sit right with it for me.

/wave to the silent
"Glad for you guys to make it"

And those on a train that's you know in the shop being repaired, and not zooming along on the rails to lynchdom...i got one piece of advice for ya..."Shit or get off the pot"

If you notice in BB's picture of Thrawn...he is pretty blue.....yes not concrete stuff...but i sure as hell wasn't gonna wave a flag as to who I was. I needed some obscure stuff just enough to plant to be innoucous and bold enough to cite it.

I also tried to hint it at my post last night...but i guess none of you picked it up.

actually trigg...i have half a mind to get you lynched...leading a train on the emperor and then to me...just because someone comes out and claims something first thing int hte morning doesnt mean its necessarily true.