Octopus Overlords

bb2112 wrote:

triggercut wrote:Just got in...and yep, that's a dead-ass WolfRemus.

I think we win this tomorrow, regardless of card draws.

I'm hopeful that with some vote analysis that we can find NC and RW's cohort today. My biggest fear was Remus somehow being a villager and that setting my thinking back to square one. Now I think we're fishing from a small pool and needing to find one and I have some ideas, as I'm guessing does everyone.

You all have my analysis which included looking at voting patterns of everyone except myself and bb2112. Heck, I know my voting pattern sucks and does not look good at all. It was all over the map before lynches, because I have know idea who the wolves were. Those who only posted one or two votes each day (Kraegor, stessier, RMC) than those who voted somewhat more recklessly. The fact bb2112 and I were both pointing at Kraegor and RMC makes me more suspicious of stessier in that trio.

trig - also look at which players Newcastle attempts to point to as wolves. There are a some players he specifically avoids mentioning or attempts to deflect us away from. Have to re-read the works of Newcastle one more time from the beginning. Remus West did not post much, so we are not going to get much info from him on his potential partner, but I will look at that again.

Have to go do yard work, spend time with my S.O. who has been gone all weekend, and will then find time to go over this stuff. Unfortunately, work finally blocked OO (where I spent way too much time this weekend) which has drastically reduced the time I have to review stuff.

Well, I just had my card swiped. It was Kaboom. Expect to not be able to play cards soon.

Anyway, I've been wondering why I was not killed in the night. The most likely answer is I am wrong in my thoughts about Kraegor and the Mage would like me to continue my vendetta today. Or I could be right and Kraegor didn't want to kill me to have the rest of the village follow my dying wish. This has really bothered me.

I do have one other person that has been hitting my radar hard. I need to do some rereading.

I had Mortician, and I Id'd Mr. Bubbles:

Here is what I got back:
You whisper the magic words "ID-O Dead-O Mr Bubbles." Seconds later you hear a voice whisper in your head "Ezkerra."

Not talk with the Dead, but at least it confirms what we already knew.. I guess.

I think that there are two things I feel really confident in saying:

1. bb2112 is 100% proven, by mathematical proof (with one exception that I'll have to discount).

2. He was spared because one of the persons last night didn't reveal their card, or because the last wolf didn't believe bb when he said he had a daydreamer card, or because the wolves didn't see it.

On numero uno there, the fact that we're down to one wolf eliminates the possibility of bb2112 being a wolf, barring the rather long odds that he played a Spartacus card on the day 1. I'm discounting that, I think. If that is the case, congrats bb2112. You won the game for your team. Barring that, though, I think that in order for bb2112 to be a wolf, theo would also have to be a wolf, and that requires the presence of four wolves, which isn't possible. Theohall can still be a wolf. bb2112 though is not.

So. Why's he still alive if he's proven? Maybe the wolves--ok, wolf--just didn't get it that bb was proven. That's possible.

I think more likely though is that they figured that if someone either was deceptive about their card play or plain old didn't say what card they played, it may have kept the wolves at bay for fear of hitting a shield card.

I think right now it would be a fairly bad strategy to say what cards we're using/playing. The wolves need to think that someone is holding a shield card and using it on bb2112.

Sorry about that then. Of course I think that if someone get's the talk with the dead card, that might be helpful now...

RMC wrote:Sorry about that then. Of course I think that if someone get's the talk with the dead card, that might be helpful now...

Well, yeah. Obviously there are some cards with a very beneficial aspect that it'd be good to share with the class when you're able to.

bb2112 wrote: Anyway, I've been wondering why I was not killed in the night. The most likely answer is I am wrong in my thoughts about Kraegor and the Mage would like me to continue my vendetta today. Or I could be right and Kraegor didn't want to kill me to have the rest of the village follow my dying wish. This has really bothered me.

I said on day 1 this would happen. Welcome to the game.

triggercut wrote:
I think more likely though is that they figured that if someone either was deceptive about their card play or plain old didn't say what card they played, it may have kept the wolves at bay for fear of hitting a shield card.

I think right now it would be a fairly bad strategy to say what cards we're using/playing. The wolves need to think that someone is holding a shield card and using it on bb2112.

You mean volunteering every bit of hidden info to the wolves might be exploited? No no... that can't be!!!

[quote="triggercut"
I think right now it would be a fairly bad strategy to say what cards we're using/playing. The wolves need to think that someone is holding a shield card and using it on bb2112.[/quote]

No longer relevant. I would expect kaboom to be in play.

Kraegor wrote:
You mean volunteering every bit of hidden info to the wolves might be exploited? No no... that can't be!!!

I will give you another hint for free. Your insulting play style is irritating. The fact that you can't find value in sharing information with the village is wolfy. Understand the difference now? No, I didn't think so.

theohall wrote: . Those who only posted one or two votes each day (Kraegor, stessier, RMC) than those who voted somewhat more recklessly.

Yeah that logic holds up well. Look at how careful newcastle was with his votes.

bb2112 wrote:

Kraegor wrote:
You mean volunteering every bit of hidden info to the wolves might be exploited? No no... that can't be!!!

I will give you another hint for free. Your insulting play style is irritating. The fact that you can't find value in sharing information with the village is wolfy. Understand the difference now? No, I didn't think so.

What?!? You mean sarcasm isn't ingratiating?? Oh my.... that explains so much!!

Kraegor wrote: What?!? You mean sarcasm isn't ingratiating?? Oh my.... that explains so much!!

And is your sarcasm helpful? Or is it just for your own amusement? Are you the Andy Kaufman of WW?

Dude, I can't show you now. People are watching.

triggercut wrote:
So. Why's he still alive if he's proven? Maybe the wolves--ok, wolf--just didn't get it that bb was proven. That's possible.

3) bb2112 is in the trusts theohall camp. You don't kill an ally. Certainly not a proven ally.

theohall has deescalated his stance regarding me. I find that curious. Just a day or two ago I rated kill before remus status.

Stess is the only one that has not checked in yet. I would like to hear his thoughts.

Kraegor wrote:

triggercut wrote:
So. Why's he still alive if he's proven? Maybe the wolves--ok, wolf--just didn't get it that bb was proven. That's possible.

3) bb2112 is in the trusts theohall camp. You don't kill an ally. Certainly not a proven ally.

theohall has deescalated his stance regarding me. I find that curious. Just a day or two ago I rated kill before remus status.

You rated a "pull my vote off Remus (proven Wolf) to put my vote on someone else to possibly deadlock the vote totals for the day."

If there was a more Team Evil-friendly play in the entire game than this from a player still alive, I'd like to see it.

triggercut wrote:

Kraegor wrote:

triggercut wrote:
So. Why's he still alive if he's proven? Maybe the wolves--ok, wolf--just didn't get it that bb was proven. That's possible.

3) bb2112 is in the trusts theohall camp. You don't kill an ally. Certainly not a proven ally.

theohall has deescalated his stance regarding me. I find that curious. Just a day or two ago I rated kill before remus status.

You rated a "pull my vote off Remus (proven Wolf) to put my vote on someone else to possibly deadlock the vote totals for the day."

If there was a more Team Evil-friendly play in the entire game than this from a player still alive, I'd like to see it.

I actually could have put the kill vote on Remus, and didn't. Sorry... I really thought that he was not a wolf...So I am learning that I can't seem to pick a wolf...even when everyone else has identified them. <sigh>

Also occurring to me: when theohall pulled his vote from Remus, Newcastle put his vote on El Guapo, to put El Guapo at 2.

The other vote was RMC. Perhaps suspicious, perhaps Newcastle sowing suspicion for fun.

At that point it's 3 votes for Newcastle, 2 votes for Guapo (one of which is Newcastle, proven wolf), 1 vote for Kraegor (theohall).

Remus (proven wolf) is the first person to vote after these hijinx...and put his vote on Newcastle (4th vote on NC).

Something in all that bothers me. Why did Remus not vote for El Guapo (to tie the vote) or Kraegor? Heck I think I had an active vote on me from redrun. Why not me?

What the heck was going on there?

bb2112 wrote: Or is it just for your own amusement? Are you the Andy Kaufman of WW?

<derail>

viewtopic.php?f=16&t=68380&p=1423722&hi ... n#p1423722" target="_blank

funny, I knew your reference sparked a memory. Looking at just that game, I begin to see why folks have been characterizing my posts in this game as mild
</derail>

bb2112 wrote:

bb2112 wrote:

stessier wrote:And to think I was going to come in here and rethink my vote again. Hurray for procrastination!

And why are you so happy about your procrastination? You weren't on the RW train. As a matter of fact, you were not on any train. Who were you going to vote?

I would still like an answer to this question, if you don't mind.

I was happy because I was going to argue we should go after theo and I can be quite persuasive.

I think today should be  RMC 
 
.

After that, I don't know. I'm really kind of hoping we get the seance card and that Bubbles has some great news for us.

stessier wrote:

bb2112 wrote:

bb2112 wrote:

stessier wrote:And to think I was going to come in here and rethink my vote again. Hurray for procrastination!

And why are you so happy about your procrastination? You weren't on the RW train. As a matter of fact, you were not on any train. Who were you going to vote?

I would still like an answer to this question, if you don't mind.

I was happy because I was going to argue we should go after theo and I can be quite persuasive.

I think today should be  RMC 
 
.

After that, I don't know. I'm really kind of hoping we get the seance card and that Bubbles has some great news for us.

I guess I will go after  Stessier 
 


Mostly because he voted for me. With my track record, he is most likely not a wolf.

RMC wrote:I guess I will go after  Stessier 
 


Mostly because he voted for me.

Any other reason? For instance, that I suggested there would be a tomorrow after lynching you? That doesn't bug you?

With my track record, he is most likely not a wolf.

I'm glad to keep your streak alive.

Day 4
BB2112 ----------
theohall ----------
kraegor ----------
stessier -------- RMC
triggercut ---------
RMC --------- stessier
.
RMC -1 ---------- stessier
stessier -1 ---------- RMC
----------
--------
---------





Majority = 4

My initial impetus is to put a vote on RMC. I think his interactions with Remus--in particular--make him the obvious target. I think there's a decent chance my vote ends up on him by day's end.

But I want to stir the pot a bit first. I still am bothered by theohall pulling his vote off Newcastle on Day 2. Perhaps it's as he said--just a bad play. I want to explore that a bit.

Initial salvo:

 theohall 
 

stessier wrote:

RMC wrote:I guess I will go after  Stessier 
 


Mostly because he voted for me.

Any other reason? For instance, that I suggested there would be a tomorrow after lynching you? That doesn't bug you?

With my track record, he is most likely not a wolf.

I'm glad to keep your streak alive.

Hey now that you mention it, why would you vote for me and think there would be a next day. I know there would be, as I am a villager, but if you think I am a wolf, why would you think that??

Thanks for helping out with my observation skills there..

triggercut wrote:My initial impetus is to put a vote on RMC. I think his interactions with Remus--in particular--make him the obvious target. I think there's a decent chance my vote ends up on him by day's end.

But I want to stir the pot a bit first. I still am bothered by theohall pulling his vote off Newcastle on Day 2. Perhaps it's as he said--just a bad play. I want to explore that a bit.

Initial salvo:

 theohall 
 

And it is still as I said. A mistake. That mistake did garner some information about Kraegor, though, he acted oddly for one vote being on him.

theohall wrote: And it is still as I said. A mistake. That mistake did garner some information about Kraegor, though, he acted oddly for one vote being on him.

Wow. Stop the presses! We've got a vague argument of oddly for the front page!!

I said on that exact day that placing a single vote on me activated scramble. Triggercut pointed out more than once that a simple majority was required for a lynch. Scramble could have quite easily swapped the lynch from newcastle to any of the other two people with votes. You were enabling the chance of a wildcard lynch to supercede newcastle's lynch.

The only oddity is that you never retracted your vote after this fact was pointed out to you. The only thing you garnered was that I was paying attention.

stessier wrote:
I was happy because I was going to argue we should go after theo and I can be quite persuasive.

Yes, well, el guapo provided the most persuasive argument. Remus hadn't done anything to find a wolf (Kinda like what you've been doing now that I think on it) That coupled with Remus' "I don't like anybody" signoff sniffles post sealed it for me.

For the sake of argument, let's set aside theohall as evil and look in another direction.

el guapo got killed. Is there value in asking why? Presume fear of shield on bb2112. RMC, theohall and myself are on the lynch block.

Why was neither stessier or triggercut killed? They would have been been shielded. They are not currently under suspicion.

I've asked myself that question regarding why I wasn't killed. All I can think of is this: I had deliberately NOT said who I might be interested in voting for today. Maybe it's because there are big holes in any of my analysis and I'm not considered much of a threat. I dunno.

It's thin, I know.

More and more I think the choice of El Guapo was one where they picked someone who was--other than bb--the least suspicious. El Guapo's biggest gaffe in the game so far (and it was a doozy) was not knowing that the Seer had been killed on the first night. While that was troubling, I know that I personally had a hard time squaring that as a "play" by El G. I know that he never plays a badguy in these games, but even if he were, that just seems like such an out of character thing for him that I decided that his not knowing that Bubbles was dead was likely because he legitimately didn't know Bubbles was dead. That moved him down my own suspect matrix. Perhaps it did for others as well. The only votes cast against him since Day 1 of the game I think were by RMC and Newcastle (the latter of which we know now was a wolf).

Kraegor wrote:

theohall wrote: And it is still as I said. A mistake. That mistake did garner some information about Kraegor, though, he acted oddly for one vote being on him.

Wow. Stop the presses! We've got a vague argument of oddly for the front page!!

I said on that exact day that placing a single vote on me activated scramble. Triggercut pointed out more than once that a simple majority was required for a lynch. Scramble could have quite easily swapped the lynch from newcastle to any of the other two people with votes. You were enabling the chance of a wildcard lynch to supercede newcastle's lynch.

The only oddity is that you never retracted your vote after this fact was pointed out to you. The only thing you garnered was that I was paying attention.

Yet you had not voted at all when I made that switch - enabling that switch as much as I by your inaction. But you won't mention your inaction being as much of a risk as my mistaken action. This inaction on your part combined with calling me out for that mistake, makes you look like a wolf to me.

Kraegor wrote:For the sake of argument, let's set aside theohall as evil and look in another direction.

el guapo got killed. Is there value in asking why? Presume fear of shield on bb2112. RMC, theohall and myself are on the lynch block.

Why was neither stessier or triggercut killed? They would have been been shielded. They are not currently under suspicion.

Says who? stessier is my primary target right now, or did you not bother to read my posts from the beginning of Day 4? You claim to be paying attention, yet say stessier is not under suspicion? He is by at least one of us, already. Of course, Kraegor not bothering to read shouldn't be new to anyone who understands wolf play. You keep putting yourself in the cross-hairs, Kraegor.

Really grasping at straws there ain'tcha.

There's this theory going around regarding linear time. You should look into it.

You didn't push stessier until after el guapo was dead. Now if you look at my question very closely you might notice it is regarding why stessier was not killed. As you can see cause and effect plays a role here. That you put stessier up for a lynch after el guapo's death is very different than targeting him prior.

Your day 4 accusation is irrelevant to the data I am trying to analyze. The night 3 kill occurred prior to your post. Unless you wish to imply the wolves knew what you were going to post after he chose to send in his kill order. My my how would he manage that?

Now try to be a bit more useful and actually analyze the scenario instead of trying to once again make it all about you. I even began it by saying to set your guilt aside. Having trouble?

theohall wrote:Yet you had not voted at all when I made that switch - enabling that switch as much as I by your inaction. But you won't mention your inaction being as much of a risk as my mistaken action. This inaction on your part combined with calling me out for that mistake, makes you look like a wolf to me.

Finally! Some ackowledgement of what I was doing. Yes, I was enabling the wolves a last minute move. Nice catch!

I did the same thing the following day with Remus. Did you notice?

Kraegor's correction wrote:For the sake of argument, let's set aside theohall as evil and look in another direction.

el guapo got killed. Is there value in asking why? Presume fear of shield on bb2112. RMC, theohall and myself were on the lynch block.

Why was neither stessier or triggercut killed? They would not have been shielded. They were not currently under suspicion.

I will concede my original phrasing could have been better. Corrected above.

Kraegor wrote:

Kraegor's correction wrote:For the sake of argument, let's set aside theohall as evil and look in another direction.

el guapo got killed. Is there value in asking why? Presume fear of shield on bb2112. RMC, theohall and myself were on the lynch block.

Why was neither stessier or triggercut killed? They would not have been shielded. They were not currently under suspicion.

I will concede my original phrasing could have been better. Corrected above.

I don't buy the shield argument. There is no positive notice that the card is played, right? So we'll never know when it is used and thus bb2112 should last until the end of the game.

I suspect, instead, that the wolf miscalculated and didn't know bb2112 is essentially proven as trig noted.

Kraegor wrote:

theohall wrote:Yet you had not voted at all when I made that switch - enabling that switch as much as I by your inaction. But you won't mention your inaction being as much of a risk as my mistaken action. This inaction on your part combined with calling me out for that mistake, makes you look like a wolf to me.

Finally! Some ackowledgement of what I was doing. Yes, I was enabling the wolves a last minute move. Nice catch!

I did the same thing the following day with Remus. Did you notice?

So inaction on your part leading to a completely meaningless vote - since it happened after the final lynch vote - helped us catch wolves how, exactly?? If you are calling me out for my mistake, what is your excuse? Feel free to keep being sarcastic, just know it leads to...

 Kraegor 
 


... for his insights on finding wolves and timely voting which helped us kill one wolf - just as my voting has resulted in killing exactly one wolf. (yes - that was sarcasm with truth in it)

Excuse for what? I didn't make a mistake. That my vote was not needed is irrelevant. Remus voting to kill a wolf is a fairly good analogy for how indicative being in on a lynch is.