Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[El Guapo]

Yes!

Perfect example of why surveillance data of vaccinated people is helpful. If we're only looking at hospital admissions, we're not getting all the information.

Is there any data / information on whether there's a difference between the mRNA vs. J&J vaccines in preventing asymptomatic infections amongst the vaccinated? I know it's small sample size, but the Yankees outbreak (where they had ~ 10 people who were vaccinated with J&J test positive, though no one with symptoms) would suggest that there's probably a non-trivial number of asympomatic infections at least among people with J&J vaccinations, right? Do we have any information / hints like that for the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines?

[raydude]

My mom is now on the "don't vaccinate your kids!" bandwagon. She got the vaccine right away, but somehow thinks it's going to have some sort of detrimental effects on my soon-to-be 12 year old. She's been talking to my aunt, and my aunt is a huge conspiracy nut, alarmist, etc.

I told her my daughter would be getting it as soon as possible, and she could take her paranoia elsewhere.

Which effect is she thinking of? Is it the "they will become magnetic" effect? My wife's best friend was on that line of thinking, last I heard. I'm thinking of buying super strong magnets that are obviously heavier than forks so no "sticky skin" bullshit can have them stick on and then showing her a little science experiment.

[raydude]

Harrowing interview by NPR about potential delta outbreak in SW Missouri

EDWARDS: Most of them have regret they didn't take it seriously. yeah, some of them still come across like this isn't real. They don't believe us. They don't believe they have COVID. And so that's even more mystifying to us. But generally, it's a great sense of regret.

Is it just me or does anyone else think that a bunch of one-minute commercials of the hospitalized non-vaccinators with regrets would be a good idea?

[Smoove_B]

Is there any data / information on whether there's a difference between the mRNA vs. J&J vaccines in preventing asymptomatic infections amongst the vaccinated? I know it's small sample size, but the Yankees outbreak (where they had ~ 10 people who were vaccinated with J&J test positive, though no one with symptoms) would suggest that there's probably a non-trivial number of asympomatic infections at least among people with J&J vaccinations, right? Do we have any information / hints like that for the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines?

No, I haven't seen much. Even the CDC page (last updated ~3 weeks ago) only indicates:

Early evidence suggests that the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine might provide protection against asymptomatic infection, which is when a person is infected by the virus that causes COVID-19 but does not get sick.

Back in May I saw they were doing studies on giving two J&J shots to see if that made a difference and they did make this comment:

We also have more information about asymptomatic infections from the J&J trials because they included asymptomatic PCR testing and antibody testing. (Participants were tested for antibodies to a part of SARS-CoV-2 that was not the spike protein since the vaccine would induce antibodies to the spike protein.) The vaccine was found to be 74 percent effective against asymptomatic infection, similar to its protection against symptomatic infections.

[Zaxxon]

Which effect is she thinking of?

I was particularly happy to see that in yesterday's big joint announcement declaring that the heart issue in kids is really truly not a big thing to worry about, the message stated that while the risk of heart inflammation from the vaccines is extremely low, the risk of heart inflammation from not taking the vaccines is higher (due to potential of getting COVID).

It's this sort of help-the-populace-who-is-terrible-at-risk-assessment stuff that I wish our health communicators would do a more consistent job with.

[LawBeefaroni]

Harrowing interview by NPR about potential delta outbreak in SW Missouri

EDWARDS: Most of them have regret they didn't take it seriously. yeah, some of them still come across like this isn't real. They don't believe us. They don't believe they have COVID. And so that's even more mystifying to us. But generally, it's a great sense of regret.

Is it just me or does anyone else think that a bunch of one-minute commercials of the hospitalized non-vaccinators with regrets would be a good idea?

Not just you and it's been debated.

So, why not use fear to drive up vaccination rates and the use of masks, lockdowns and distancing now, at this moment of national fatigue? Why not sear into the national imagination images of makeshift morgues or of people dying alone, intubated in overwhelmed hospitals?

Before we can answer these questions, we must first ask two others: Would fear be ethically acceptable in the context of COVID-19, and would it work?

[YellowKing]

Which effect is she thinking of? Is it the "they will become magnetic" effect?

Nothing that extreme. Just general anxiety that there could be unknown long-term effects. But she is also the type that worries about everything. She freaked out when we bought a house near a retention pond because she was convinced the kids would either drown/get bitten by a snake/get eaten by an alligator.

She was not always that way. When I was growing up, my brother and I would go play in the woods for hours unsupervised, she had no clue where we were. No issues.

Her paranoia really only started after she married a Fox News 24/7 die-hard right winger. They've since divorced, but she's never recovered from the constant fear and anxiety.

[Zaxxon]

Which effect is she thinking of? Is it the "they will become magnetic" effect?

Nothing that extreme. Just general anxiety that there could be unknown long-term effects. But she is also the type that worries about everything. She freaked out when we bought a house near a retention pond because she was convinced the kids would either drown/get bitten by a snake/get eaten by an alligator.

This is the part I don't get (not about your mom specifically, but people 'worried' about the vaccine in general): if you freak out about everything, you should be freaking out extremely much about COVID infecting your kids. Waaaayyy more than about the vaccine.

I mean, kids under 12 are at probably their highest risk of the entire pandemic due to the Delta variant.

[coopasonic]

Nothing that extreme. Just general anxiety that there could be unknown long-term effects. But she is also the type that worries about everything.

Speaking of unknown long term effects, has she heard of COVID?

edit: dammit Zaxx!

[Zaxxon]

Nothing that extreme. Just general anxiety that there could be unknown long-term effects. But she is also the type that worries about everything.

Speaking of unknown long term effects, has she heard of COVID?

edit: dammit Zaxx!

BAM!

[malchior]

Exhibit 1B+ that people suck at evaluating risk.

[YellowKing]

Yeah, and that's part of the bigger problem. The "conventional wisdom" has always been that kids aren't really affected that much. So people have a known (Covid, which isn't that bad in kids) against an unknown (scary vaccine stuff they don't understand), and in those match-ups the unknown risk is always going to win.

[Smoove_B]

Maybe the first group of people to receive booster shots will be the immunocompromised?

https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/ ... 8432147456

Emerging data that a 3rd dose of mRNA #COVID19 vaccine provides a greater antibody response in solid organ transplant recipients.

(speculating because organ transplant patients are routinely given immune system suppression medication)

[Isgrimnur]

Not just you and it's been debated.

So, why not use fear to drive up vaccination rates and the use of masks, lockdowns and distancing now, at this moment of national fatigue? Why not sear into the national imagination images of makeshift morgues or of people dying alone, intubated in overwhelmed hospitals?

Before we can answer these questions, we must first ask two others: Would fear be ethically acceptable in the context of COVID-19, and would it work?

Ask the politicians and their dark-money PACs.

[El Guapo]

Which effect is she thinking of?

I was particularly happy to see that in yesterday's big joint announcement declaring that the heart issue in kids is really truly not a big thing to worry about, the message stated that while the risk of heart inflammation from the vaccines is extremely low, the risk of heart inflammation from not taking the vaccines is higher (due to potential of getting COVID).

It's this sort of help-the-populace-who-is-terrible-at-risk-assessment stuff that I wish our health communicators would do a more consistent job with.

Out of curiosity, is there any info why they did a warning and not a pause for this issue?

[Smoove_B]

Out of curiosity, is there any info why they did a warning and not a pause for this issue?

I think it's because of the relatively few number of cases, low hospitalizations and mostly because there have been zero deaths.

I don't now anything official, but that's my take. Heart inflammation is serious, but it's not stroke serious.

[Zaxxon]

Out of curiosity, is there any info why they did a warning and not a pause for this issue?

I think it's because of the relatively few number of cases, low hospitalizations and mostly because there have been zero deaths.

I don't now anything official, but that's my take. Heart inflammation is serious, but it's not stroke serious.

Speaking out of my ass, but that's the gist I got from a relative who's a peds ID doc--it's serious, but everyone recovered and very few required hospitalization. This person expresses worry about a lot of things COVID-related, but never got too bent out of shape over this issue.

[Smoove_B]

Do we need a COVID-19 cruise thread?

Two guests aboard Royal Caribbean Cruises’ Adventure of the Seas ship tested positive for Covid-19 during routine testing and are now returning home, the company said Thursday.

This comes after two guests aboard Royal Caribbean’s Celebrity Millennium cruise tested positive and the company’s Odyssey of the Seas was delayed from sailing after eight members of its crew tested positive.

Both guests were unvaccinated and under the age of 16. One guest is asymptomatic and the other is experiencing mild symptoms.

Other guests traveling with the two minors and guests who came into close contact with them are all vaccinated and have tested negative, according to the company.

The guests and those traveling with them disembarked in The Bahamas and are on their way home to Florida.

[Zaxxon]

Why are unvaccinated people on cruise ships?

[Smoove_B]

For freedom.

I said it elsewhere - I have a family friend that's a school teacher that refuses to vaccinate. She has two kids aged 12 and 15 that she won't vaccinate. If cruises force guests to be vaccinated, it's her Kobayashi Maru. If they don't require vaccination, she'll be on the first boat that lets them board.

[The Meal]

Maybe the first group of people to receive booster shots will be the immunocompromised?

https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/ ... 8432147456

Emerging data that a 3rd dose of mRNA #COVID19 vaccine provides a greater antibody response in solid organ transplant recipients.

(speculating because organ transplant patients are routinely given immune system suppression medication)

This is great news. I'm glad they're prioritizing this research. Last I heard folks on immunosuppressant drugs (such as solid organ transplant recipients) are forming antibodies to C-19 at a 7% to 53% rate. More research necessary to tighten that crazy-wide gap, but even better they're focusing on what can be done to up their numbers.

#edit MHS has already asked her transplant team about getting another booster and they responded that "we're not doing that yet." That last word is music to our ears.

[MHS]

Maybe the first group of people to receive booster shots will be the immunocompromised?

Emerging data that a 3rd dose of mRNA #COVID19 vaccine provides a greater antibody response in solid organ transplant recipients.

(speculating because organ transplant patients are routinely given immune system suppression medication)

Yeah, this was a blow. It was hard to go from starting to feel a slight "light at the end of the tunnel" feeling back to, "Nope, I have to pretend (assume?) that I'm not really vaxxed and act accordingly." Le sigh.

On the sad side, I can't get my transplant team to consider testing to see if I did have a sufficient antibody response (the regular antibody test only looks to see if you've had COVID, not if you've had a good enough response to your vaccinations) and they aren't talking 3rd shots for me yet. On the plus side, the fact that in a few short weeks they've already done this much research (to the point where they know very specifically the immunosuppressive drugs presenting the biggest issues, which is course is one I'm on) is very promising.

[Smoove_B]

You were the first person I'd thought of when reading it, so I'm glad you both saw it. I will keep watching, but yes, it's the first thing I've seen specifically focused on the recognition that maybe we need to be boosting specific cohorts of people and not just everyone. My SIL has lupus and is on immune suppression meds and she's also in limbo, not really knowing what her status is. Of course,that's not stopping her from taking a vacation to Puerto Rico next month, but we all manage risk differently. I'm certainly going to keep watching for more information and then try to conduit it where I can.

[Octavious]

I don't know Cole Beasley said we're depending on science too much and whatever happened to gods will?

[Smoove_B]

Well when Cole Beasley gets sick, I hope he doesn't magically decide to go to a doctor and instead relies on God's will as to whether or not he recovers.

But seriously, has anyone stepped in and pushed for a concussion protocol review on him? I don't think he's well.

[Isgrimnur]

SI not pulling any punches

Cole Beasley Provides Scientific Proof There Is No Vaccine for Being Stupid ... Honest to God

The Buffalo receiver refuses to be COVID-vaccinated and challenges the Bills and NFL to do something about it.

[MHS]

You were the first person I'd thought of when reading it, so I'm glad you both saw it. I will keep watching, but yes, it's the first thing I've seen specifically focused on the recognition that maybe we need to be boosting specific cohorts of people and not just everyone. My SIL has lupus and is on immune suppression meds and she's also in limbo, not really knowing what her status is. Of course,that's not stopping her from taking a vacation to Puerto Rico next month, but we all manage risk differently. I'm certainly going to keep watching for more information and then try to conduit it where I can.

If it helps her at all, the specific drug they believe causes the biggest issue is Myfortic or Celcept (mycophenolic acid). Our daughter has lupus along with my same kidney disease I have and is on immune suppression meds but fortunately doesn't take that one specifically. Your SIL might.

[Smoove_B]

That's interesting. I'll have to ask. I know initially there was some question as to whether or not she was going to get vaccinated, but her lupus doctor told her absolutely, run don't walk to get it. I'm not sure what meds she's on, but she also has it in her kidneys. She's been managing it well with diet and change of lifestyle choices, but it was pretty bad 15+ years ago.

In unrelated news, big study published in MMWR today regarding the mental health status of the public health workforce:

What is already known about this topic?

Increases in mental health conditions have been documented among the general population and health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, data on public health workers are limited.

What is added by this report?

Among 26,174 surveyed state, tribal, local, and territorial public health workers, 53.0% reported symptoms of at least one mental health condition in the past 2 weeks. Symptoms were more prevalent among those who were unable to take time off or worked ≥41 hours per week.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Implementing prevention and control practices that eliminate, reduce, and manage factors that cause or contribute to public health workers’ poor mental health might improve mental health outcomes during emergencies.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

On the sad side, I can't get my transplant team to consider testing to see if I did have a sufficient antibody response (the regular antibody test only looks to see if you've had COVID, not if you've had a good enough response to your vaccinations)

I thought antibody tests could detect a response to the vaccine? My brother and his family got one after being vaccinated (administered by his SIL who is a doctor) and he, his wife, and his parents-in-law all showed a antibody response.

[gilraen]

On the sad side, I can't get my transplant team to consider testing to see if I did have a sufficient antibody response (the regular antibody test only looks to see if you've had COVID, not if you've had a good enough response to your vaccinations)

I thought antibody tests could detect a response to the vaccine? My brother and his family got one after being vaccinated (administered by his SIL who is a doctor) and he, his wife, and his parents-in-law all showed a antibody response.

Different antibody tests check for antibodies to different protein:

A vaccinated person is very likely to get a negative result from a serology test, even if the vaccine was successful and protective. That’s because different serology tests detect antibodies to different parts of the virus.

Some tests detect antibodies to the spike protein of the virus, which are produced in response to viral infection or the vaccine. Others detect antibodies to a different part of the virus called the nucleocapsid protein, which are produced in response to infection, but not by the current vaccines.

I don't think serology testing for post-vaccine antibodies is FDA-approved yet, because they aren't really sure how well it's detecting those antibodies at all.

[Octavious]

SI not pulling any punches

Cole Beasley Provides Scientific Proof There Is No Vaccine for Being Stupid ... Honest to God

The Buffalo receiver refuses to be COVID-vaccinated and challenges the Bills and NFL to do something about it.

Good for them. People keep on trying to act like not getting the vaccine is the same thing as being an oppressed minority. We live in fun times.

[Default]

If you get sick, cry about it to Cthulu.

[LordMortis]

Some big steps today. Went to Costco with my parents so I could see them for my mom's birthday. It gives us something to do together. It's the first time we've been indoors together since end of year 2019. The cafe area was open so we stopped and ate indoors to finish a hotdog and soda. That's two huge steps. Here's to hoping they weren't too huge. Mom's non vaccination still terrifies me. De masking, even to eat indoors in a warehouse environment when we are finally trending toward less than 100 cases a day sate wide, still felt like it might have been too big of a jump.

[stessier]

In Olympic news...

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga pledged Monday to strengthen health controls at airports after a Ugandan Olympic team member tested positive for COVID-19 at the town hosting their training camp, triggering concerns that the upcoming games will spread infections.

A Ugandan team member, reportedly a coach, tested positive Saturday at Tokyo's Narita International Airport and was quarantined there. But the rest of the nine-person team was allowed to travel more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) on a chartered bus to their pre-Olympics camp in the western prefecture of Osaka.

Three days later, a second Ugandan also tested positive for the virus, forcing seven town officials and drivers who had close contact with the team to self-isolate. The team members were quarantined at a local hotel.

Concerns escalated after it was announced that both Ugandans had the delta variant of the virus, which is believed to spread more easily.

[YellowKing]

Not that I'd have a chance in hell to win the lottery, but it still sucks that if you got your vaccine earlier this year when they first became available like a good citizen, you get one entry into the lottery. If you had to be bribed into doing it after June 10th, you get two entries.

Nice to know that doing the right thing gets you half the chance of winning.

Oh and they're also giving out $25 pre-paid gift cards now, too. Enjoy my money, assholes.

[stessier]

Australia is having a rough time of it.

The article really drives home to me how lucky we are to have such good vaccine access.

[Smoove_B]

Israel is struggling too:

https://twitter.com/DrAliSKhan/status/1 ... 7402527744

At 57% vaccinated (US = 46% of pop'n), Israel has been enjoying near zero deaths and few cases. Now uptick from easing too many of its antivirus restrictions too quickly & likely #DeltaVariant. Expanding vax to 12+ years old.

[Smoove_B]

As much as I hate Twitter for sharing important info, I cannot deny that sometimes it works. A thread from a trusted voice on the Delta variant:

https://twitter.com/meganranney/status/ ... 9444318209

Lots of fears about delta variant right now. Some of it is right. Some is overblown. A thread

[malchior]

LA County recommends masks again - sure to set off a furor on the right.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, I posted it in the masking thread. I actually haven't seen too much about it - not sure why.